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BRIDGE BITES #141
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BACKING THE FAVORITE
Brian Gunnell |
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♠ Q4
♥
K7
♦
QJ7
♣ KJT852 |
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Both Vulnerable
South West North
East
1♣ Pass
1♠
Pass 2♣ Pass
6NT All
Pass
South wastes little time
in reaching 6NT, West leads the Diamond Nine and, when Dummy goes down,
Declarer can see just 11 top tricks. How would you go about getting the
12th trick?
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Dummy
West East
Declarer |
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♠ AKT32
♥
AQJ9
♦
KT5
♣ A |
►
One possibility is that one or
other of the defenders has the doubleton ♣Q. If that doesn’t work then you will
have to fall back on the Spades, and that’s a suit which offers you a choice …
either play the Spades from the top, hoping that the Jack comes down in three
rounds … or cash the Queen and finesse the Ten. If you look at the Spade suit
in isolation, it’s a close call as to which line is better (playing for the drop
is a slight favorite). But, as the play of the hand develops, watch how the
odds change.
►
East wins that opening Diamond
and a Heart is returned. You cash the remaining Hearts (East started with
four), then the ♣A, ♦K
(East pitching a Spade on this trick),
♦Q
(East pitching a Club), and ♣K. The ♣Q does not fall on the play of the Clubs
(and neither defender shows out), so now it all comes down to the Spade suit.
Is playing for the drop of the Jack still the slight favorite?
►
Not at all! East showed up with
one Diamond and four Hearts, and pitched a Spade and a Club when you played the
Diamonds. That means he must have started out with three or four Clubs, so his
original distribution must have been 5=4=1=3 or 4=4=1=4, there are no other
possibilities. What does that tell us? That East started with more Spades than
West and is therefore more likely to have the Jack. So the percentage pendulum
has swung in favor of taking the Spade finesse.
►
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♠ Q4
♥
K7
♦
QJ7
♣ KJT852 |
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♠ 5
♥
832
♦
986432
♣ Q76 |
North
West East
Declarer |
♠ J9876
♥
T654
♦
A
♣ 943 |
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♠ AKT32
♥
AQJ9
♦
KT5
♣ A |
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12 tricks for those who did a
little counting.
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