|
BRIDGE BITES #104
|
NO MATH REQUIRED
Brian Gunnell |
|
♠ KT8
♥
QJ652
♦
A874
♣ 7 |
|
E-W Vulnerable
South West North
East
1♠ Pass 2♥
Pass
3♣
Pass
4♠ Pass
6♠
Pass
Pass Pass
This week’s hand offers
two ways to play the Clubs. Which is better? No need to be a math
whiz, some simple logic comes up with the same correct solution as that
calculated by our resident Professor of Statistics.
|
|
Dummy
West East
Declarer |
|
♠ AQJ97
♥
3
♦
K5
♣ AQ532 |
West led a trump, a good choice!
After that opening lead, this is not a good slam at all, requiring Clubs to be
brought home for no losers, with only two Club ruffs available on the board.
What are your choices?
►
You can cash the ♣A and ruff a
couple of Clubs, hoping that the ♣K comes down in three rounds? Or you can
finesse the ♣Q and then ruff two Clubs, hoping that the King is onside and comes
down in four rounds. Which is more likely to succeed?
►
Things get simpler as soon as you
realize that, regardless of who holds the King, Clubs must be 4-3, otherwise the
suit will never set up. The chances of the Club finesse working are 50%. What
are the chances of one of the defenders holding ♣Kxx (we are counting the Jack
as an x for this discussion)?
►
The aforementioned professor
would make some calculations with lots of factorials involved and announce that,
if Clubs are 4-3, there are 30 possible holdings of Kxx and 40 holdings of Kxxx.
That makes Kxx about a 43% probability, not as good as the finesse. And simple
logic arrives at the same conclusion. If one hand has four places for the King
and the other has only three places, where is the King more likely to be?
That’s right, in the hand with longer Clubs.
So, you win the opening trump
lead in Dummy, finesse the ♣Q, ruff a Club, cross to the
♦K,
ruff a Club, cash ♦A,
ruffs a Diamond, draw trumps, and cash the remaining Clubs. 12 tricks!
►
|
|
♠ KT8
♥
QJ652
♦
A874
♣ 7 |
|
|
♠ 53
♥
KT84
♦
QT63
♣ T98 |
Dummy
West East
Declarer |
♠ 642
♥
A97
♦
J92
♣ KJ64 |
|
|
♠ AQJ97
♥
3
♦
K5
♣ AQ532 |
|
Yes, that trump lead from West
certainly made Declarer’s life more difficult. If, for example, West had led a
Diamond then Declarer’s chances of success are greatly improved, as he can get
three Club ruffs in Dummy.
Back to Index
|