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This tendency to overestimate our abilities in certain areas of life is part of the thinking trap known as overconfidence. In his 2011 book Thinking, Fast and Slow, Nobel Prize recipient and psychologist Daniel Kahneman describes his early experience with overconfidence. Their confidence in their abilities to judge individual cases remained despite evidence that it was largely impossible to accurately make the judgement based on simple tests.

It is possible that the sample happened to be a particularly successful bunch – but it is also possible that they were overconfident in their abilities. Although it might not sound too troubling, studies suggest overconfidence can have many implications. A 2013 study from Canada found experienced analysts to be more overconfident than inexperienced ones.

Given that half of people will be below average, the results suggest overconfidence is at work.

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