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As presented by Nick Barisheff, January 6, 2011 at the Empire Club 17th Annual Investment Outlook LuncheonGood afternoon. I’d like to pick up where we left off last year with a review of three dominant medium term trends that put upward pressure on the price of gold in 2010 and will likely continue to in 2011.
In 2009, for the first time in 20 years, monetary gold, or central bank and investment buying, outpaced gold buying for industrial or jewellery purposes. Last year we quoted a November 2009 story written by veteran journalist Robert Fisk claiming Russia and China along with France, were working on an agreement to trade oil with Arab states using currencies other than the US dollar.
Last month, I was a speaker and panellist at the China Gold and Precious Metals Summit in Shanghai.
Although the forming of economic mindsets is a complex topic, I’d like to simplify how major financial mindsets are created in one sentence. Although the West shares many common economic principles with the East, as the capitalist banking systems are similar, there is one area where there is a clear distinction—this is how Easterners view the role of gold as money.
Outsourcing has almost entirely destroyed the manufacturing sectors of many first world countries like the US and Canada and much of Europe.
Peak oil is the point at which the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. Finally, as a direct result of world-wide debt and currency debasement, more people will be competing for the world’s available gold.
The information on this website (or prints thereof) does not constitute recommendations to buy or sell any goods or investment assets, including gold. After more than a year of false alarms, the Federal Reserve finally decided in December to begin tightening monetary policy by raising the federal funds rate. The Fed is conscious of the fragile state of the economic recovery and has committed to a gradual pace of monetary tightening. 17 consecutive meetings, mortgage rates barely budged – they continued to hover around 6 percent. Weakness in the global economy and the stronger dollar will attract global capital flows to Treasury securities, further limiting any increase in longer-term U.S. In spite of these headwinds, longer-term interest rates will start to increase in 2016 as the monetary tightening starts to impact economic activity, but the increases in rates like the mortgage rate will be just a fraction of the increase in the federal funds rate and other short-term rates. Long-term rates could rise sharply if the Fed begins to reduce the size of the MBS portfolio it built up through quantitative easing (QE). While we believe the housing sector will remain strong in 2016, there is some uncertainty about the strength of the broader economy. The 30-year mortgage rate began 2015 at about 3.7 percent, and it remained under 4 percent for most of the year. While home purchases will increase next year, higher interest rates will reduce the volume of refinances.
Despite years of sustained low levels of mortgage interest rates, refinance activity has remained unexpectedly high. Our Executive Perspectives feature insights from company leaders on key trends in housing finance and how Freddie Mac is supporting the nation's housing recovery. Identifying the effect of Brexit risk on asset returns proves challenging due to a lack of data. On Wednesday April 18, 1951, the prince of Belgium, the grand duchess of Luxembourg, the queen of the Netherlands, and the presidents of Germany, France, and Italy signed the treaty establishing the European Coal and Steel Community, which would become known as the Treaty of Paris.
Like marching soldiers, European countries have since steadily trudged towards an ever closer union. In lieu of trying to quantify the effect of Brexit on asset prices, quantifying the effect on asset volatility offers a second-best approach.
Second, the volume of searches fluctuates widely on a daily basis, which makes statistical analysis both easier (more variation) and trickier (more noise).
Since November 2015, Brexit risk appears to have affected UK-listed stocks and credit markets more than other assets. Conversely, the variance on the pound was lower on days with relatively abundant Brexit-searches.
When presidents of republics, queens, and princes made real the European dream of a greater and peaceful unification, they probably did not imagine that one day their successors might turn that unity into a collective march towards economic instability. It is a pleasure to return to the Empire Club to discuss the outlook for gold and precious metals in 2011. I can confirm that Chinese buying, both official and public, is a major trend that is not only well in place, but may be the single most important influence on the price of gold in 2011. What our government, our banks and financial media tell us about money is what most of us will accept as our financial mindset or financial reality.
Now I’d like to look at three longer irreversible trends that I believe will affect the price of gold and currencies for decades. The Chinese worker who built your IPhone made $287 a month; this was after a well-publicized raise. We discussed peak oil, but gold is also reaching a peak as fewer and fewer new deposits are being found. He frequently writes articles of interest to the investment and precious metals communities, and is a contributing writer to Canadian Moneysaver, Pension and Benefits Monitor, Private Wealth Canada and many other leading publications. Your favourite reason appeared to be on the web the simplest thing to take into account of. Investing can be risky, please note that it is your own evaluation of the risks and potentials that you base your investment decision on.

We take the Fed at its word and expect only a few modest hikes in short-term interest rates next year.
However, even a modest increase in mortgage rates will reduce affordability, especially for first-time homebuyers and low-to-moderate income borrowers.
However, this type of reduction is at odds with the gradual tightening the Fed has committed to publicly. We expect house price growth to moderate a bit to 4.4 percent in 2016, still well above the long-run sustainable rate of house price growth. Total housing starts will increase 16 percent from 2015 to 2016, and total home sales will increase 3 percent. Our upward revisions to mortgage originations in 2015 came largely from higher-than-expected refinance activity.
While we may not be able to reply to you individually, your feedback helps us shape future Executive Perspectives for our subscribers. Translating news and other web stories into data and studying asset volatility may offer a secondbest option. In the wake of World War II, these European countries hoped to create an organized and vital Europe through the establishment of economic ties.
A vote by British citizens on June 23 may break that stride, as the United Kingdom decides whether it wants to remain in the European Union.
First, Brexit-volume has mostly trended higher since March 2016, suggesting that Brexit has attracted increasing attention over the past few months. On days when changes in Brexit-volume was two standard deviations above the mean, the variance of UK-listed equities (proxied by the FTSE) was nearly 2.5 times greater than on other days. One potential explanation is that if Brexit occurs, the Bank of England would adjust monetary policy to try to stabilize the broader economy.
A British exit from the European Union would likely have broader implications beyond UK asset returns. The precedent could set in motion a ripple effect that would delink other European countries from the community, affecting the lives not just of the 60 million British citizens but the hundreds of millions of other European Union residents. Silver is up 78 percent in 2010 as it is, like gold, beginning to assume its role as a monetary metal. If anyone doubts the power of government economic policy to shape mass economic reality, just look at how we have changed our attitudes towards debt, saving and economic value over the past 40 years. In the next few years Mexico will become an importer of oil and the US will lose its third largest supplier. You have performed an impressive task and our entire neighborhood shall be thankful to you. I say to you, I certainly get annoyed while other folks think about issues that they plainly don't understand about. If in doubt, make sure to consult as many websites and information resources as possible before making a decision, or contact a professional adviser.
This reduction in affordability may restrain house price increases at the lower-priced end of the market. We don't expect the Fed to shrink the QE portfolio until the latter part of 2016 at the earliest, and any significant reduction in the QE portfolio isn't likely until 2017. The 2016 moderation in house price appreciation reflects, in part, the reduction in affordability and associated reduction in demand that will follow the Fed's monetary tightening. While single-family homes will account for most of the construction pickup, rental apartment construction will also increase but not enough to meet the significant demand of this market from both older and younger cohorts. The volume of refinances may continue to exceed expectations despite mortgage rate increases, especially if the share of cash-out refinances continues to grow.
Most industries are not operating at full capacity and there is little room to be able to absorb cost. Few relevant historical case studies exist, particularly because the legal and institutional implications for a country to leave the European Union remain unknown (e.g., will the Schengen Area or the common market end?
First, measure the news volume for a topic to serve as a proxy for the time-varying risk of that topic. Compare that to the results from the January Two Sigma Macro Tail Risk Survey, when Brexit did not crack the top five tail risks in a survey of sell-side sales professionals.2 At the time, the survey suggested a “China Hard Landing” or a “Market Liquidity Event” presented greater risk. For example, On February 22, 2016, London mayor Boris Johnson publicly declared his support for Brexit, and the volume of Brexit stories spiked. Similarly, the variance on the credit default swaps (CDS) of the UK government was more than three times greater than other days. Since monetary policy has a more direct effect on exchange rates than on equities or credit, Brexit might pose less of a risk in the forex markets than elsewhere.
A similar analysis to figure 2 (not reported) shows that Brexit risk already infects other European equity markets, particularly Greece and Portugal. The best I can come up with is that speaking about gold is like one of those good news bad news jokes, you know the ones—your doctor phoned with some good news and some bad news. Platinum was also up 17 percent.When we look at a ten year chart of the US and Canadian dollars, the Euro, the British Pound and the Yuan, we see that these five major currencies have lost between 70 to 80 percent of their purchasing power against gold over this 10 year period. Our current debt based mindset began to form the day the US dollar, the worlds reserve currency, was removed from its final international peg with gold in 1971.
Banks encourage us to borrow for everything from vacations to widescreen televisions made in China. Our fragile, highly indebted economy relies on this land based cheap oil to continue and it cannot withstand the shock of transitioning to more expensive alternatives.

For 2011, I recently forecasted it may climb to $1,700 to $2000 per ounce based on the last five years performance and the factors I have presented today.I encourage you to follow the example of those who know how devastating a currency crisis can be and buy gold to protect wealth and not treat it as speculation.
You managed to hit the nail upon the highest and defined out the whole thing without having side effect , other folks could take a signal.
Housing gathered strength throughout 2015, with home sales posting their best performance since 2007. However, the performance of the economy following the Great Recession marks by far the weakest recovery of the post-World War II era.
We are working with an overvalued dollar and if there has to be increments, they have to be minimal and insignificant. Brexit-searches had no statistically significant effect on UK 10 year sovereign debt or European CDS spreads (iTraxx). An alternative explanation is that global macroeconomic conditions, such as changes in the oil price, have a relatively larger effect on exchange rates than on UK domestic equity and credit markets. In truth, gold is not rising, currencies are falling in value and gold can therefore rise as far as currencies can fall.
Russia needs to acquire at least 1000 tonnes and China at least 3000 tonnes to remain on parity with the US. In September of 2010 aGerman military think tank reported that the German government is taking the threat of peak oil seriously and preparing accordingly. Please note that no liability will be accepted and you are the sole responsible person for your investments. House prices increased as well, due as much to the tight supply of homes for sale as to increased demand. Furthermore, productivity appears to have declined to the point that the economy is unlikely to generate more than two or two-and-a-half percent real growth, and this only if all else goes well. In theory, prediction or betting market information joined with other data sets could offer quantitative insights. These results appear consistent with the belief that Brexit would adversely affect the long-term real economy by harming corporate profitability, reducing both earnings and the ability of financial institutions to manage their debt.
Since Brexit-search volume as a percentage of overall searches was lower on days of global macreconomic uncertainty, a muted effect on the pound seems plausible.
Generally speaking, the investing public in the West sees gold as a wealth gaining asset to be traded like stocks and bonds. Numerous studies around the world have concluded that we are very close to peak oil production, which will be accelerated due to gulf drilling bans.This will lead to higher price inflation for most goods. If the world’s pension funds and hedge funds moved only five percent of their assets into gold, which these days seems quite conservative, gold would trade above $5,000.
It comes from Norm Franz’s appropriately titled book, Money and Wealth in the New Millennium. The owner and potential contributors to this website may or may not hold positions in the investment assets discussed. Some analysts are concerned that the Fed's monetary tightening will boost mortgage rates, reduce affordability, and halt or reverse the recent improvement in housing. This rate of growth is well below the 3.2 percent real growth rate enjoyed on average during the post-War period. In practice, these markets suffer from limited depth on the Brexit topic, particularly over the time horizons necessary to derive statistical confidence for an empirical analysis. Rigobon and Sack (2005) apply this methodology to estimate the effect of the 2003 Iraq war on asset markets. This is why Westerners are constantly fretting about the price of gold in currency terms.The Chinese government, on the other hand, respects gold.
This will be another blow to the fragile US economy, which currently pays less for oil and gas than any of the first world countries. This is evident by the laws they have passed to facilitate mining and private gold ownership. The mountain of federal, state and municipal debt will become even harder to service and the government will be forced to go even deeper in debt and to further debase its currency. When added to the effects of the waning strength of the petrodollar the results will be devastating. The speech was also presented by Nick in Montreal and Vancouver on January 7th and 10th respectively as part of the Investment Outlook 2011 Series. It is a market of demand and supply and one cannot be criminalised as he has justification from the tax that he has to pay.“The only control mechanism is the in-built capitalistic price movement that resonates with demand and supply. This will cause inflation to rise as currencies depreciate in value and create higher universal debt. This is the difference that I believe anyone who wishes to fully understand gold’s rising price must comprehend. Inhabitants of older countries, who have lived through the destruction of an inflation fuelled currency crisis, do not need to be reminded that gold is the most effective hedge against inflation and a currency crisis.Former CEO of Newmont Mining, Pierre Lassonde also feels that it will be buying by the Chinese public that will eventually propel gold prices into the stratosphere.

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