IRAQ—MUTUAL
GENOCIDE,
WHEN WILL THE KILLING END?
SYNOPSIS:
Tribal hatred runs very deep in Iraqi society.
It was kept in check for many years by a military dictator
who did not tolerate people killing one another
simply because they belonged to the 'wrong' group.
OUTLINE:
1.
VIOLENT
MUSLIMS AND PEACEFUL MUSLIMS
2.
AFTER
THE END OF OCCUPATION
3.
MUTUAL
GENOCIDE AMONG THE GANGS OF LOS ANGELES
4.
THE
VIOLENT MUSLIMS OF IRAQ ARE MUCH WORSE
The military forces of the United States of America
attempted to keep the peace in Iraq
after overthrowing the military dictator
who had kept the Iraqis from killing one another for a number of years.
The United States knew almost nothing about tribal
hostilities in Iraq
when the U.S. President decided to overthrow the existing government.
But after ten years of occupation,
it has now become clear that tribal hatreds
are more important than any other factors in Iraq.
When law and order were destroyed by the US military take-over of Iraq,
the violent Muslims of all tribal and ethnic loyalties
were once again free to begin killing their 'enemies'.
They have continued to do this by means of random suicide bombings
wherever members of the other kind of Muslims would be found.
Every week we have reports of more such killings in market places,
in houses of worship, and in places where Iraqi police are gathered.
Various groups of Iraqis have created private armies,
which have the dual purpose of protecting their own people
and killing people who belong to other ethnic groups,
who are perceived as enemies.
And whenever they kill some enemies,
they create more enemies,
since the families of those killed know where to lay the blame.
The survivors of all sectarian killings will remember for the rest of
their lives
that certain families members were killed by some other ethnic group,
for no other reason than they belonged to an identifiable group.
Such tribal hatreds are rooted in history hundreds
of years old.
Each new generation of Iraqis is raised with the stories
of how they were victimized by some other group.
1. VIOLENT MUSLIMS AND PEACEFUL MUSLIMS
However, not all Muslims in Iraq are given to random
violence
against members of other ethnic groups.
The majority of Muslims are probably non-violent and peaceful.
But the ones who get into the news
are the ones who want to kill their enemies at every opportunity.
It now clear that the U.S. military forces
that attempted to maintain law and order
and sometimes to impose some sort of democracy on Iraq
basically failed in that mission.
It was not a wise move to overthrown the government
of Iraq
in the first place, even tho it was a violent and evil military
dictatorship.
Saddam Hussein did kill thousands of people in Iraq
whenever it suited him.
But the number of people Saddam killed has been surpassed
by the number of Iraqis who have died
since the U.S. soldiers came to 'save' Iraq from Saddam.
This history shows that law and order
cannot be imposed by outside military forces.
The United States eventually withdrew U.S. soldier from Iraq.
The cost of dollars and lives was just too high.
And the results were too meager
to justify these continuing losses and expenditures.
2. AFTER THE END OF OCCUPATION
Now that U.S. troops are no longer patrolling Iraq,
attempting to maintain some kind of of law-and-order,
the private armies are re-organizing themselves
and attempting to claim various parts of Iraq.
The central government in Baghdad
is attempting to assert control over the police and military forces.
But because tribal loyalties run much deeper than national loyalties,
even the people who are now paid as local police and national military
forces
might easily sub-divide themselves along sectarian lines
and begin to do battle against one another.
One of their hopes will be that they can defeat
their enemies
and take over the government of Iraq.
This might be one result of a civil war after occupation.
But there are so many different factions
that MUTUAL GENOCIDE is likely to be the outcome.
Suicide bombers will continue to kill their perceived enemies.
Private armies will attempt to establish safe areas for their own
people.
But these will often be such small areas of the country
that they cannot really survive without connections
with the rest of the country and the rest of the world.
During this period of chaos after the U.S. soldiers
leave,
thousands of Iraqis will die.
Just how many thousands will depend on the Iraqis themselves.
The answer to this question depends on the
percentage of Iraqis
who are violent Muslims and the percentage who are peaceful Muslims.
If the violent Muslims are only 10% of the people
and 90% want to settle differences without violence,
then the period of mutual genocide will be mercifully brief
and the number of dead Iraqis will be limited.
But if the percentage of violent Muslims is 30 or
40%,
then the mutual genocide will continue for a longer period.
And there will be more dead Iraqis at the end of the period of mutual
genocide.
Because Iraq is not an isolated land mass,
millions of Iraqis will continue leave as a result of the chaos.
They have the financial means and connections to people in other
countries
that will permit them to save themselves and their families
simply by leaving the zones of mutual genocide.
Nearby countries will not be drawn into the foolish killing of people
simply because they are perceived to belong to one group or another.
No organized government with an adequate military force
will allow the people to kill each other because of mutual hatred.
Thus, the Iraqis who flee will be safe in nearby
countries.
And those who are permitted to come to the United States
will also be safe from the foolish mutual genocide
that will continue for an unpredictable number of months or years.
If the percentage of violent Muslims is high,
then the mutual genocide will continue for a longer time.
And more violent Muslims will kill one another.
Also they will kill a large number of non-violent Muslims in the
process.
However, eventually reason will prevail.
After some period of sectarian and ethnic violence,
everyone will recognize the result of mutual genocide:
The private armies will continue to fight
until thousands have died on all sides.
Then cooler heads will say: Iraq has had enough violence.
All these people have died and nothing has been achieved.
However, this mutual genocide could be brought to an
end
as soon as the majority of Iraqis understand what is happening.
The peaceful Muslims will realize
that the violence has only creating more dead bodies.
And as the violent Muslims kill one another off,
the percentage of peaceful Muslims will get larger and larger
until they have the power to restrain the killers.
It could even be that wise Iraqis will foresee the
result of mutual genocide
and decide to cut short this period
in which the most violent members of their groups
feel that it is necessary to kill themselves
and as many enemies as they can take with them.
Peaceful religious leaders might call upon their followers
to abandon the methods of
warfare that are resulting in mutual genocide.
We cannot predict how the post-occupation chaos will
end.
But there are a finite number of people to kill.
The killing must ultimately come to some sort of end.
And when the peaceful Muslims get the upper hand,
some kind of new government will emerge.
The new government of Iraq might be another military dictatorship.
This would be the outcome if enough surviving Iraqis decide to join
forces
with some existing private army.
Another possible outcome would be a religious
dictatorship.
Some Muslim leader will become the effective head of state.
And a government of his liking will be established
to carry out the routine functions of government.
Foreign governments (including the United States)
might attempt to intervene in some ways to prevent further killing.
But if they use military means,
they must kill in order to
prevent killing.
And they might attempt to support some private armies against others.
Even if foreign troops fight once again in lraq,
they will eventually be withdrawn when stabilities has been
re-established.
After a certain percentage of the Iraqis are either
dead or fled,
the remaining Iraqis will begin again
to build some kind of law and order for themselves,
even if it looks at first like medieval Europe
with small groups of people in isolated enclaves
drawn together to defend themselves.
3. MUTUAL GENOCIDE AMONG THE GANGS OF LOS ANGELES
Perhaps we Americans could get some perspective on
the troubles of Iraq
if we tried to imagine what would happen to the city of Los Angeles
if there were a complete break-down of law and order.
We know that thousands of citizens of Los Angeles
now identify themselves as members of one street gang or another.
Of course, the vast majority of Angelenos are not gang members.
But the gang-members are the people with the guns.
If the police of Los Angeles were all to leave the
city,
then the gangs of LA would begin to kill each other at random.
They might have some foolish hope
that their own gang would emerge as the ruler of LA.
Thousands of gang members would die in the resulting mutual genocide.
Many peaceful residents of LA would leave
in order to protect themselves and their families.
These would be the affluent people,
with lots of resources and connections
that would allow them to live wherever they want.
Without law and order, LA would become a ghost town,
patrolled by gang members
showing their guns and protecting their turf.
After enough of the gang members had killed one
another,
wiser heads would prevail.
Some sort of peace would be established.
And a less violent order would be created.
It might be necessary for outside armed forces to
occupy Los Angeles
in order to disarm the gangs
and to permit the peaceful citizens of LA to take back their city.
Once law and order were established once again,
the affluent citizens who fled to avoid the violence
would be able to return, hoping to reclaim their property
and to resume the lives they led before the war.
Of course, once this scenario is laid out,
all reasonable people begin immediately to think
about how to prevent
any of this from happening.
The way to prevent mutual genocide among LA gang-members
is to take away their means of killing one another.
Universal gun-control and the prohibition of bullets
might be one way to prevent gang bangers from killing one another.
A certain percentage of them will have to be put behind bars
because they cannot be rehabilitated to be peaceful citizens.
Whenever they are let of jail,
they immediately resume their violent life-style.
4. THE VIOLENT MUSLIMS OF IRAQ ARE MUCH WORSE
At least we can be glad that the gang-members of LA
have not adopted suicide-bombing
as their method of eliminating other gang-members.
And they do not have any belief system
that tells them they will immediately go to paradise
if they kill as many of the 'infidels' as possible.
The gang members of LA exist within a larger system
of law and order
—namely
the United States.
So their mutual genocide would quickly be brought under control
if it were actually to break out.
However, the world does not have any such larger
forces of law and order
that will prevent mutual genocide from happening in Iraq.
A better world will eventually emerge,
in which there are standing armies ready to put down genocide
wherever and whenever it arises.
And if and when Iraq falls into mutual genocide
recognized by all of the world,
the World Peace Force would take over that country
until they peaceful people of Iraq can establish a government
that itself can prevent the people from killing one another.
Drafted
August 24, 2007
; Revised 9-12-2014; 4-6-2017;
This should probably become another chapter in Iraq: Mutual Genocide.