Investor’s Forecast 2018
2017 Was Another Blockbuster Year for Us
Now Watch This Cancer Company Blast Higher in 2018
Dear Member,
The past year was another exceptional one for Oxfordians.
As I write, 18 of the 19 positions in our Oxford Trading Portfolio are profitable, with gains as high as 284%. Five of the six positions in our Oxford All-Star Portfolio are profitable, with gains as high as 442%. All of the positions in our Gone Fishin’ Portfolio are profitable, with gains as high as 410%.
While the individual stocks in our Ten-Baggers Portfolio have fluctuated widely – as I suggested they would from the outset – the portfolio has doubled the market so far in 2017, including a realized gain of 227% in Kite Pharma.
I look forward to another prosperous year in 2018. And one sector looks particularly promising: small cap to midcap biotechnology stocks.
I see two reasons for a rally here. One is that the industry has recently undergone a significant correction and valuations are far more reasonable.
The other is that the FDA just announced plans to allow quick approval of cancer drugs if they show early and “outsized” survival benefits for patients, even in smaller studies.
In other words, many cancer drug companies just got cheaper as their prospects became more favorable. That’s a good combination.
This month I highlight a leading cancer drug company that could rise severalfold in the months ahead.
The firm already has a leading cancer drug with FDA approval – and annual revenue of more than $1 billion.
Its up-and-coming pipeline should lead to more approvals this year.
Sales and earnings will almost certainly drive these shares higher.
But there is also a chance the company will be bought out by a larger competitor like Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN), Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG) or Gilead Sciences (Nasdaq: GILD).
That’s why it’s the newest addition to our Ten-Baggers of Tomorrow Portfolio.
The companies in this portfolio are different from our other recommendations.
They tend to be younger, smaller and more volatile.
They also have to have the realistic potential to rise tenfold or more.
From the beginning, the companies in this portfolio have had to meet six minimum requirements:
- They must be tremendous innovators, offering revolutionary technologies, new medical devices, blockbuster drugs, or other cutting-edge products and services.
- They must experience terrific sales growth. In this case, top-line expansion has to be 30% or more.
- They must protect their margins. A firm needs to rebuff competition with patents, trademarks or brand names.
- They must beat consensus estimates. In the short term, share outperformance is all about beating expectations. Even if a company loses money, it can still register as a significant beat if the loss is smaller than expected.
- They must be small cap to midcap companies. Mega-corporations simply cannot grow at the high rates of smaller firms.
- They must be relatively unknown. Once a company becomes a household name, the parabolic move higher is often over. Investors who recognize opportunities early have a substantial advantage.
Our sell discipline is different here too.
In our Oxford Trading Portfolio, for example, we sell any stock that closes 25% or more below its closing high.
That protects both our principal and our profits.
But we use a different sell discipline to avoid stopping out of these more volatile stocks too soon.
Here we sell only when there is a fundamental change in the business outlook or the company misses the quarterly consensus earnings estimate by 25% or more.
As I mentioned, this approach has allowed us to roughly double the market’s return this year. And today I have a new addition to our Ten-Baggers Portfolio: Incyte Corp. (Nasdaq: INCY).
Based in Wilmington, Delaware, Incyte is a biotech focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of proprietary therapeutics, mostly in the field of cancer treatment.
Although the company has a diverse and growing portfolio of drug candidates, its first commercial product – Jakafi – is approved in the U.S. for patients with intermediate or high-risk myelofibrosis, a cancer of the bone marrow.
Jakafi is a big hit with both doctors and investors. Oncologists and their patients are excited by the drug’s effectiveness.
Investors are wowed by its list price: $11,587 a month, indefinitely. (This is generally covered by insurance.)
Investors are also excited about a new Incyte medicine, epacadostat. Epacadostat amplifies the potency of two drugs made by Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) and Merck (NYSE: MRK). Both unlock the human immune system, allowing it to attack tumors.
In clinical studies, for example, patients with advanced forms of the deadly skin cancer melanoma see their tumors disappear with a combination of epacadostat and one of these other drugs.
A big trial will be completed in the first quarter of 2018. Success here could light a fire under Incyte.
Unlike most of its competitors, Incyte focuses on the basic chemistry of making drug molecules.
That’s a technical part of the drug discovery process that many biotechs outsource.
But Incyte does this work in-house because it has an army of qualified scientists and because it has access to the latest cutting-edge technology – like the NMR spectrometer – that enables researchers to see individual molecules that can be turned into new drugs.
The numbers at Incyte are already impressive. Third quarter results exceeded both top- and bottom-line estimates.
Revenue soared 42% year over year. (Jakafi sales alone jumped 36% to $304 million.) Earnings per share beat the consensus by 183%.
And the future looks especially promising.
Along with earnings, Incyte announced expansion of its collaboration agreement with AstraZeneca’s research and development arm, MedImmune.
The companies will evaluate the effectiveness and safety of epacadostat in combination with an AstraZeneca drug for patients with non-small cell lung cancer.
Incyte CEO Hervé Hoppenot is not just focused on profits, incidentally. He intends to overturn the entire field of cancer therapy.
In a recent interview with Forbes, Hoppenot said, “If we are successful, the entire cost of treating cancer should be drugs. That is my hope, not from a business standpoint but from a medical standpoint. What you would like is being able to replace palliative treatment and hospital treatment for patients who are a few months from dying with medicines that are very effective against cancer.”
This is no pipe dream. Successful drugs – even costly ones – will ultimately save the healthcare system money.
How? By reducing the need for even more expensive services.
When Americans complain about the high cost of healthcare, they generally point to drug prices. Yet drugs are only 11% of overall U.S. healthcare expenditures.
If effective drugs can reduce the need for the other 89% of costs, the price of treatment will come down substantially.
Incyte is at the forefront of this movement.
As I write, the biotech sector – which was strong in the first three quarters of the year – has undergone a correction.
Incyte itself has sold off, in part due to buyout rumors that didn’t materialize. This doesn’t mean the company is not still a takeover candidate.
It has over $1 billion in annual sales – and a valuable immunotherapy pipeline. Incyte also has a healthy balance sheet with $1.3 billion in cash and only $23.7 million of debt.
Historically, the best time to invest in biotech stocks is after the short-term speculators have sold.
This appears to be one of those times. The entire sector has gotten a haircut in recent weeks. Yet there have been no clinical failures at Incyte and no earnings miss. Indeed, the company recently blasted estimates.
In short, Incyte is a potential ten-bagger. The firm is experiencing dynamic revenue growth and significant progress in its clinical development portfolio.
The firm just turned the corner on profitability and should earn almost a dollar a share in 2018.
While sales and earnings growth will be prodigious... Incyte remains an attractive buyout candidate too.
Action to Take: Buy Incyte Corp. (Nasdaq: INCY) at market. We will notify you with a Safety Switch Alert if the company reports quarterly results 25% or more below the consensus estimate.