Revenue and EBITDA are down, the cash runway is short, and time is of the essence. So in a turnaround, set your sights on becoming a start-up.
As turnaround professionals, we often see a pattern that most will see only once. Like the five stages of grief (denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance), turnarounds unfold, sometimes obvious to observers but not entirely clear to those in the middle of the vortex. During a turnaround, most senior leaders go through five stages, too (denial, bargaining, anger, decomposition and acceleration). Like the stages of grief, the process begins with senior leaders being in denial.
Denial: “I Know It Looks Bad, but It Won’t Last”
Denial shows up in unrealistic sales forecasts (hockey stick or simply not grounded in past performance), lack of willingness to make cost reductions even in the face of declining revenues (“It won’t last.”), and an unwillingness to address poor employee performance (“It’s not their fault.”). We recently worked with a client who had such optimism in his business that he described it as being stronger than at any time in the previous eight years. Cash-flow analysis, however, showed the company running out of cash in a few short months with no access in place for additional funding.
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