10.09.2015

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Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, and 2016 speculation: Media is applying dumb theories to the next presidential race. Simply by existing, articles like these make a progressive upset of Hillary Clinton more likely. A refresher: The president beat Clinton in a 50-state primary that she nearly won, by the end, as the salience of the Iraq War faded. Ironically, this time it’s Clinton who would marshal the same electoral muscle against Warren, whose candidacy is so far the fondest dream of young white male progressive pundits (not that there’s anything wrong with that).
Strong populist insurgents winning in the midterms could be as effective as a primary challenger in making sure Hillary Clinton knows the party’s energy is with the populist base, not her plutocrat donors.The speed with which so many people began debating an Elizabeth Warren candidacy is a tribute to Scheiber’s strong argument. Obama trounced Clinton in most of the caucuses, building a delegate margin, but he only stayed competitive because of black voters in Southern primary states. In every poll of the 2016 primary, at least 55 percent of primary voters have backed Clinton. As they have since 2009, reporters and readers assume that the Democratic candidate, and likeliest winner, will be Hillary Clinton.


They’re just worlds better than anything Clinton scored in 2008, in a state she won anyway. If Hillary Clinton were to wage a Wall Street-friendly campaign of inevitability, expecting a “Ready for Hillary” primary coronation and not a campaign, I would hope that progressive African-American and Latino and women voters would desert her in droves. Also true: The first polling of a possible New Hampshire primary puts Clinton 53 points ahead of Warren. Eight years ago, the poll found Clinton at 33 percent, 12 points ahead of her closest rival, John Kerry. Brian Schweitzer into a Senate race, then endorsed a candidate for an open seat in Warren’s own Massachusetts. Progressives are just way too invested in using the primary process every four years to get the country to take big leaps forward that probably could be better pursued in other ways.I think Scheiber is absolutely right that Clinton’s biggest potential flaw is her association with the Wall Street wing of the Democratic primary.
Last month it put Clinton at 64 percent, 58 points ahead of Warren and just as far ahead of Vice President Joe Biden.
I don’t think it is.I also worry that transforming Warren from a freshman senator with an admirable, ambitious and crucial agenda of financial regulation and economic equity into a presidential candidate potentially hurts Warren, as well as her agenda.


Already, almost twice as many Democrats viewed Warren unfavorably (15 percent) as viewed Clinton that way (8 percent). Her association with the Clinton Foundation already makes her too close to plutocracy for my comfort.I also agree with Scheiber that economic populism and income inequality are big, under-tapped issues that could drive the Democratic base. Some writers have gotten tied up in arguing that Warren won’t run, because that’s what she’s said, or that she can’t win even if she does.
As I read Scheiber, all he’s saying is that Warren’s sense of her own economic and political mission is so strong that if she feels those issues aren’t being adequately addressed in the 2016 campaign, she just might jump in.
And until Barack Obama came along, that hadn’t worked out very well.Even Obama’s emergence is a cautionary tale for Warren backers, because I’d argue that investing the freshman Illinois senator with magic progressive properties was a bad bet. He was never more progressive, ironically, than Hillary Clinton, except maybe on Iraq – and his national security policies can’t make any of his antiwar, pro-civil liberties backers comfortable that they did the right thing.



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