25.05.2015
Your use of this website constitutes acknowledgement and acceptance of our Terms & Conditions. The Plenary session at the Strategies in Light (SIL) 2014 conference held February 25a€“27 in Santa Clara, California again featured analysts from Strategies Unlimited presenting their most recent research on the packaged LED component and LED-based general lighting markets.
The LED research does include chip-on-board (COB) LEDs such as the recently announced Cree CXA1310 pictured in Fig. Evstratyeva said that the research firm is planning a report to address the modules and light engine space. Diving into the packaged LED revenue research, Evstratyeva first broke down the revenue by region and compared 2012 and 2013 data (Fig. Given that backlighting has been such a significant market, let's begin in that application. Moving to mobile, Strategies Unlimited primarily focuses on mobile phones, including smartphones, and tablets. There are market dynamics, however, that have made the revenue decline for mobile more shallow than for backlight. Evstratyeva said LED revenue sold into flash applications is in the $700M (million) range in 2013. It is worth noting that the replacement lamps segment includes products sold into both residential and commercial applications. Taking a deeper look at the lamp market, Philip Smallwood, director of research at Strategies Unlimited, addressed the end product market at SIL. The MR16 sub-segment is also instructive of what will happen across the lamps market because it is a year or two in front of the other sub-segments in terms of adoption.
Conversely, Smallwood projects A-lamp revenue at $5.2B in 2018, exceeding MR16 revenue and still on a growth path at that point. Having covered the lighting products, let's return to a final discussion focused on LEDs relative to lighting applications.
In perhaps a surprising fact, Evstratyeva reported that LED makers in the US accounted for the majority of the LED revenue sold into lighting in 2013. The boundary between mid- and high-power LEDs has also been neatly aligned with plastic or hybrid-plastic packages used in the lower-end LEDs and more-reliable ceramic packages being used in higher-power devices.
Evstratyeva readily admitted in her SIL presentation that new thinking was needed in the area of segmenting the LED market by type of device. The surprising angle to the category-based breakdown is the increasing prominence of COB LEDs across many different lighting applications.
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However, some of them (such as Gelish, Essie, and CND) have been imported without the approval of the registered owner of the trade mark and no guarantee or warranty, if any, will be honoured or fulfilled by any official or licensed importer. The universe of manufacturers of modular products will be significantly broader than that of packaged LEDs, and that research will surely be of interest. In the US, for instance, the revenue is generated by only three companies and in Europe only one is tracked. 3 depicts these market segments and the contribution of LED revenue that is attributable to each segment. Strategies Unlimited is projecting in a decline in the segment at a 7.74% CAGR from 2013 to 2018. In many cases, mobile devices have displaced dedicated digital cameras as the primary camera used by consumers.
Moreover, she said that sub-segment will continue to rise in revenue through 2018, albeit not at a rate that will eliminate the aggregate projected decline. There are a number of factors that will keep LED revenue on the rise in the automotive segment. Ford recently announced that its best-selling F-150 light-duty truck will get LED headlamps across the model (see p. 8 is a complex one that depicts the revenue forecast for packaged LEDs relative to specific sub-segments of the lighting market. Strategies Unlimited includes LED-based linear tubes in the category, for example, and those products target industrial and commercial applications. For starters, the lamps are primarily deployed in business applications, as mentioned before.
But saturation will happen soon after, and with the long LED lifetime the lamps market will decline considerably. 10 shows is substantial but probably not as large as the participants in that space would hope based on the huge installed base of linear fluorescent lamps around the globe. While comparing lamps and luminaires in terms of packaged LED revenue revealed that lamps were the larger segment, the opposite is true in terms of revenue of the lighting products.


Architectural or faA§ade lighting outdoors has been an early area of success due to both the energy savings associated with LEDs and dynamic color capabilities. First, we will look at how well the LED manufacturers are penetrating the general lighting market. And much of that discussion could hinge on the types of LEDs used in various lighting products.
Still, she presented some projections based on the conventional segmentation tied to power level.
If you stick with a categorization based on power level, then LEDs packaged in a plastic or hybrid-composition package, and that operate above the 0.5W level, are in the high-power category.
Different substances become luminous when they are exposed to the deep ultraviolet rays of the Wood's Lamp. Includes black storage cover and clear plastic cover with a chart that shows different type of skin conditions. It also excludes products such as infrared (IR) and ultraviolet (UV) LEDs that are sold into industrial, security, and other applications.
Cree announced the CXA1310 (pictured), CXA1850, and CXA2590 COB LED arrays leading up to Strategies in Light.
Analyst Katya Evstratyeva made the point during her presentation that the line between such COB LEDs and other light engine or modular products is blurring. There was modest 7% growth in 2013, although as we mentioned previously the ramp will be steeper a€” projected at 13% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) a€” going forward. Packaged LED revenue grew 7% in 2013 with Japan remaining in the top spot in revenue production.
LED revenue in the backlight application will decline going forward, driven by lower component prices and brighter LEDs.
The peak in the 2011 to 2012 timeframe came as there were still legacy fluorescent-based backlights in use and more potential for market share gains for LEDs. The mobile segment is in a gradual decline in terms of LED revenue, although the camera flash sub-segment lessened the impact of lower-cost LEDs. Higher pixel counts in image sensors and lower cost have enabled better cameras in mobile devices. The automotive segment for LED lighting is far from saturated and is expected to deliver growth in terms of LED revenue.
The exterior segment will remain the larger of the two, primarily because of the number of different ways that LEDs are used in headlamps, turn signals, brake lights, and other functions.
The bulk of the sign manufacturing is taking place in China, so that region is driving the LED purchases. Moreover, we will consider the types of LEDs being used in general lighting and how specific LED manufacturers are faring in the segment.
The lighting market will consume the most LEDs by revenue, and the replacement lamps sub-segment will be the largest consumer through 2018. While we regularly write about a€” and presentations at conferences such as SIL support a€” the premise that LEDs will fundamentally change the lighting market, presumably the bulb form will begin to disappear in favor of luminaires with integral LEDs or modular SSL engines. 8 makes it clear that through 2018 the replacement lamp will be the most widely deployed lighting product consuming LEDs. Likewise, the MR16 sub-segment is mostly based on business customers whereas A-lamps are more prominent in residential applications. In terms of the consumption of LED retrofit lamps, the market is still not at the early adopter stage. 11 shows that in the 2017a€“2018 timeframe socket saturation will impact MR16 lamps sales with a decline in revenue inevitable.
Smallwood said that North America has been consuming 1.1 replacement lamp per year based on legacy incandescent and compact-fluorescent technology. While many prognosticators, including the US Department of Energy (DOE), have questioned the lighting quality produced by LED tubes, Smallwood based his thoughts on the incumbent technology.
Outdoor street and area lighting is a prime sub-segment because those products burn all night, and energy and maintenance savings are critical. Strategies Unlimited does not break such data out per individual LED manufacturers, but we can make some inferences based on Fig. While the company is only the sixth-largest LED supplier based on revenue for 2013, Cree is perhaps the top supplier in lighting applications and has taken good advantage of its early focus on the lighting application segment. Strategies Unlimited continues to segment the LED market into low-power, mid-power, high-power, and super-high-power sub-segments. Mid-power LEDs are being operated at power levels above 0.5W and increasingly include architectural elements that were developed first in high-power LEDs.
The replacement lamps market will consume LEDs across the power sub-segment categorization.
Strategies Unlimited projects high-power LEDs to remain dominant in terms of revenue in the retrofit lamps segment.


In reality a careful optical design can almost always deliver better optical performance with discrete emitters.
These UV rays enable the esthetician to analyze the surface and deeper layers of the skin in order to determine proper treatment of various skin conditions. Indeed, many companies use the COB term to describe larger light engines based on printed circuit boards in a variety of form factors. Those numbers are indicative of the upstarts attempting to win space in what is already a crowded market.
Indeed, general lighting displaced backlighting as the growth driver, as we reported in our SIL coverage last year. First of all, the application segment is virtually fully saturated with a transition to LED backlights at this point. As with the backlight segment, lower LED prices and brighter components are part of the story. LED exterior lighting including headlamps has been primarily limited to luxury-level vehicles. Ford noted that the durability of LED lighting technology was a good match to the work truck market. And these new luminaires will truly leverage the compact size of LED light sources and the ability to distribute LEDs in arrays to cover large areas. 8, the blue arrow standing for the penetration of LED lamps with regard to the total global installed base.
There also have been many low-quality MR16 lamps made in China and sold into markets such as Russia.
He said T8 and T5 fluorescent tubes perform well and the efficiency advantage of LEDs is not significant enough to spur a broad retrofit wave. Likewise, the commercial and industrial sub-segments are very focused on energy and maintenance savings and, more recently, the quality of light that LED sources can deliver relative to fluorescent and high-intensity discharge (HID) sources. A number of attendees at SIL questioned that projection in networking events after the Plenary session. High-power LEDs sell at higher price levels; therefore, the products that use high-power LEDs will contribute more to the high-power category measured by revenue.
In both cases, the revenue growth will come amongst price decreases with the next five years being an exciting time in the maturing solid-state lighting (SSL) space.
Certainly, market leader Nichia is in part responsible for that country's position, although Strategies Unlimited tracks the five largest LED makers in Japan. Second, brighter LED components mean that in many cases fewer LEDs will be needed to backlight a screen. She said auto makers are increasingly using LED lighting with features such as color tunability to add styling inside the cabin and to help drive sales.
Examples of revolutionary new designs include the planar fixtures based on light guides that are edge lit with LEDs. Lamps trailed the aggregate luminaire segment in 2013, although the overall lamps LED revenue was an impressive $1.5B.
What you may find surprising is that the MR16 segment is the largest segment at the moment and will continue to be so until A-lamps catch up in the 2015 to 2016 timeframe.
The analysts also track five companies in Korea that in aggregate earn the second highest revenues. Third, the price drop in LED components has been especially acute in the mid- and low-power LED space and those are the predominant LEDs used in the application.
Evstratyeva noted that Toyota is moving to LED-based headlamps on its Corolla model, which is a smaller economy vehicle.
But the company also noted a styling angle and the LED-lit light guide implemented around the perimeter of the unit that the company said will offer a signature look. Luminaires are simply much more complex products with more expensive subsystems such as driver electronics and housings. Cree continues to push ceramic packages into smaller footprints a€” smaller than mid-power LEDs a€” while delivering the luminous flux of larger high-power LEDs. Coming out of SIL the prevailing thought was that you should expect COBs in virtually every lighting application, with lighting manufacturers trading simplicity of product development for less-precise beam control. In many cases, mobile device makers are including an LED-based flash on both the forward- and rear-facing cameras in mobile devices.
Ironically, socket saturation will happen in the lamps space toward the end of the projection window, and once again luminaires will become the larger sub-segment for LED revenues.
And LEDs with dropping component prices represent an increasingly smaller portion of the bill of materials cost for both lamps and luminaires.



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