01.08.2014
Saffron For Intermediaries has announced this morning that it has launched new fixed rate products on its occupational range of mortgages. Saffron recently announced an interest-only option across its occupational range of mortgages and has extended the end-date on its 3-year first-time buyer mortgage from the end of May to the end of November 2019. Sorry, either someone took all the comments and ran away or no one left any in the first place !
Any predictions what average rent will be at the same time next year, anymore drops coming?
Belvoir has over 15 years of experience in property lettings, buying and renting and is one of the best agencies I know about.
Seth Grossman started his career on Wall Street as a financial analyst for Bankers Trust - which became Deutsche Bank. In 2007, Seth personally originated and closed over 50 transactions averaging more than $10,000,000 each.
Note: These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.44 percentage points over the last year - the pace of improvement has slowed - and at that pace the serious delinquency rate will be close to 1% in late 2016. The "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%, so maybe serious delinquencies will be close to normal at the end of 2016. Despite dampened sales and customer traffic levels as a result of extreme weather in parts of the country, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) held relatively steady in February.
In addition, February marked the 24th consecutive month in which the RPI stood above 100, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators. Restaurant spending is discretionary, so even though this is "D-list" data, I like to check it every month.
Looking forward, I expect the YoY increases for the indexes to move more sideways (as opposed to down). The first graph shows the monthly Case-Shiller National Index SA, the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA, and the CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through January) in nominal terms as reported. In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is back to May 2005 levels, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to December 2004 levels, and the CoreLogic index (NSA) is back to February 2005. The second graph shows the same three indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter).
In real terms, the National index is back to June 2003 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to March 2003, and the CoreLogic index back to April 2003. In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental Value. Here is a similar graph using the Case-Shiller National, Composite 20 and CoreLogic House Price Indexes. On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to May 2003 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to December 2002 levels, and the CoreLogic index is back to March 2003.
In real terms, and as a price-to-rent ratio, prices are mostly back to 2003 levels - and maybe moving a little sideways now. This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs. Data released today for January 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. The National index declined for the fifth consecutive month in January, reporting a -0.1% change for the month. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
And overall, we should have been expecting slower growth this decade due to demographics - even without the housing bubble-bust and financial crisis (that the WSJ opinion page missed).
One simple way to look at the change in GDP is as the change in the labor force, times the change in productivity. So here is a graph of the year-over-year change in the labor force since 1950 (data from the BLS). The data is noisy - because of changes in population controls and the business cycle - but the pattern is clear as indicated by the dashed red trend line. The GDP data (year-over-year quarterly) is also noisy, and the dashed blue line shows the trend.


GDP was high in the early 50s - and early-to-mid 60s because of government spending (Korean and Vietnam wars). The good news is that will change going forward (prime working age population will grow faster next decade). This was well above the consensus forecast, but as expected by housing economist Tom Lawler. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in March and April. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through February 2015 (2009 dollars).
The recent employment reports have been exceptionally strong with job growth averaging 293,000 a month for the past six months. Based on readings of these labor market indicators, we forecast a 220k increase in private payrolls, with a 5k increase in government jobs, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 225k.
The consensus is for an increase of 247,000 non-farm payroll jobs in March, down from the 295,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in February. Also, Reis will release their quarterly surveys of rents and vacancy rates for offices, apartments and malls.
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the December 2014 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
As always, a key will be the change in real wages - and as the unemployment rate falls, wage growth should start to pickup.
In just three years, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have transferred significant credit risk on loans totaling more than $667 billion in unpaid principal balance (UPB), exceeding the goals set by their conservator, according to the FHFA’s Overview of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Credit Risk Transfer Transactions for August 2015 released Friday. With the transfer of credit risk on loans totaling more than $667 billion in UPB, the GSEs have made substantial progress toward achieving the FHFA’s goal of transferring more credit risk to the private sector. FHFA said that going forward it will set specific goals in the annual conservatorship scorecard and work closely with staff members at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help the GSEs develop and evaluate their credit risk transfer structures. On the first measure, FHFA said it the GSEs are transferring about 90 percent of UPB for the largest category of loan acquisitions, which contain most of the new acquisition credit risk – that is, non-Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) refis that are fixed-rate 30-year loans with LTV ratios higher than 60 percent.
FHFA said the third measure of credit risk transfer, the amount of credit risk inherent in a loan pool, cannot be directly observable at the time the credit risk is transferred. More than 150 investors have participated in the STACR and CAS programs; any given transaction will typically feature anywhere from 50 to 70 investors, according to FHFA.
Even with the success of the Enterprises’ credit risk transfer programs in their first three years, much is yet to be determined.
Accord says that brokers are receiving quicker offers on client applications following a series of changes to its application and underwriting process. The lender has reported that the time it takes a broker to receive an agreement in principle now averages under an hour, a reduction of three hours since May.
Straight-through AIP acceptance rates have doubled (50%) since April with the number of AIPs being referred for further assessment dropping by 23% (32%).
Accord has now reduced its application to offer time by five days year-on-year from July 2015 to July 2016. Hi Ally - no official date that we've heard as of yet, but will definitely be covered on the site! Think of it not as an opponent, but as a digital assistant that can remove much of the mundane work and allow you to focus on what you do best. Not dissimilar then to the State Pension changes which have affected the lives and financial planning of many, and in particular, females of a certain age group.
This wider inquiry was almost inevitable, once the committee had started delving into the governance and funding of the BHS scheme. Can I remind everyone about all the time and effort put into Home Information Packs, only for the new coalition to scrap them as soon as they formed a new Government.
He worked there for more than four years and it was there where he got his first exposure to debt instruments. He has a wife and four kids and is involved in numerous community work and charity organizations both in Florida and in Israel.
The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.27% in February 2014, and this is the lowest level since September 2008.
Kainer and Wei presented a price-to-rent ratio using the OFHEO house price index and the Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) from the BLS. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices.


2 official floated a series of ideas for regulating nonbank financial companies, the latest indication that top U.S. Although this is the January report, it is really a 3 month average of November, December and January prices. It also means another year, an astonishing ninth in a row, in which the economy did not grow by 3%. First, usually following a recession, there is a brief period of above average growth - but not this time due to the financial crisis and need for households to deleverage.
The core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) increased 1.4 percent year-over-year in February. Although we expect a slight moderation in March with job growth of 270,000, this would still be a healthy number.
Incoming data have tilted negative in March, but on balance still suggest that payrolls increased at a solid pace. Given the weaker regional manufacturing surveys, we expect manufacturing employment to grow by 5k, compared with 8k in February. FHFA is encouraging the GSEs to continue engaging in large volumes of meaningful credit risk transfer. In fact, this measure can only be assessed for a given pool of loans by using a credit model, according to FHFA. Asset managers make up the largest share of participating investors with 53 percent; hedge funds have the next largest share with 31 percent.
Since changes were made to its affordability criteria in April the average amount Accord lends has also increased by 12%.
The changes have been carefully considered, and while Accord aims to take a more pragmatic view of borrower spending, as a responsible lender it will continue to ensure customers will comfortably afford their monthly repayments. While it has not dropped by much, it does indicate a reluctance by lenders to lend at very high loan to values. From there he moved into the commercial mortgage business in which he has excelled for the last 10 years. In a short time frame, Seth had been successful in positioning CREF as a leading Florida mortgage company that has arranged financing across the country for a variety of property types including Multi-family apartments, retail strip centers, big box shopping centers, office buildings, and even land. In fact, some economists say hiring could fall below the 200,000 level because of a combination of bad weather and weakness in certain sectors like drilling and energy production.
Within the components, we should continue to see a shedding of jobs in the mining sector, which lost a cumulative 14,000 over the past two months. Regional manufacturing surveys released thus far in March have come in less optimistic, suggesting that manufacturing jobs probably grew at a slower rate.
We forecast that average hourly earnings for private employees rose by 0.3% m-o-m in March, indicative of our expectation for a gradual pickup in wage growth as a result of the tightening labor market and also representing some bounce back after the unusually weak number in February. FHFA said both Enterprises have met their scorecard goals each year since 2013 as far as credit risk transfer amounts in terms of UPB. As the head underwriter and director of placement for Meridian Capital Group, LLC a commercial mortgage brokerage firm based in New York, Seth grew the company’s Florida branch from a two man operation to a 40+ person corporation. Over the last 10 years Seth has secured close to $3 billion of loans in almost every state and on almost any property type. Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites saw year-over-year increases in January compared to December. Initial and continuing jobless claims have remained low throughout the month but were higher in the BLS survey period in March compared with the same period in February. Despite all his responsibilities, he managed to produce in excess of 40% of the office’s revenue on an annual basis.
Seth also is, and often has been, a principal in numerous real estate ventures, which gives him a unique understanding of a client’s perspectives. Elsewhere, we expect decent growth in construction jobs but a slowdown in manufacturing hiring given the recent weakness in the PMI surveys. We will also be closely looking at the trend in retail hiring as an indicator of the beginning of the spring shopping season.



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