Currently the only graphical interface you will come across if you use consumer computers are the windowed ones based around the desktop metaphor. These include Windows, MacOS and OS/2 Warp. Each program runs in its own windows which 'sit' on a 'desktop' which contains your files. The problem with windowing especially as implemented in Windows and OS/2 is that they can disappear behind each other and new users can easily get confused about differing menus (which is why the task bar appeared, to help users find their windows). In MacOS at least the menu bar is always at the top of the screen.

If you've ever spent any time around new users or are one yourself you will know how confusing our current filing system metaphors are. Directories are represented by files (from the office cabinet) and files by sheets of paper. When you ask a new user to click on a file do you mean a picture of a file or a file in the computer sense of the word?

Obviously the keyboard remains a staple of our interaction with computers as the mouse has become but with recent innovations speech based interaction is reaching critical mass. Products are appearing which are accurate, can handle speech at a natural speed and are unaffected by accents. They are also relatively affordable. A case in point is IBM's bundling of their advanced voice recognition software with OS/2 Warp 4 which proved to be a tempting addition especially considering its features were integrated into the operating system but it was expensive.

I can safely say that touch screen & voice activated computing is well on its way to the average desktop. So improved methods of input are no longer a huge worry to the usability specialist. What does remain are the problems with windowing and filing. With some thought they could be overcome while still keeping the basic ideas behind the desktop metaphor. If that's what you want....In an earlier article I discussed something which, if technologies like Java survived unfragmented, will become prevalent. Its the personalised interface. Currently something like Windows95 has to be multi-purpose as you could use it to do anything. So its interface designers and programmers have had to account for every possibility. But most people never use even a tiny part of all those possibilities. So why not use an interface designed specifically for only what you do? Simpler, faster and more convenient. I think it will catch on.

Of course there will still be multi-purpose operating systems but these will have the option to have a custom user interface 'plugged in' and their own native interfaces will improve vastly anyhow.

Why could Java not surviving hold this progress up? Multiple operating systems which are truly commercially viable won't appear if there aren't any applications, Java would ensure that there are apps, if it survives. The other thing needed is speed. For a slick interface which is responsive a lot of power has to be thrown at it, operating systems have to be design for this in mind e.g. the BeOS which is new and so doesn't have to hark to backwards compatibility which would bog it down.

Another aspect swooping into the scene is the Net Centric interface. Network Computer Inc. (a division of Oracle), Sun, Netscape and Microsoft are all looking to integrate the Internet into our daily computer use. People like NC Inc. and Sun are looking to do this in Java for Network Computers which are cut down, have less power and are aimed at users with a small range of requirements such as e-mail, word processing and calendar functions only. Netscape is making their pseudo Operating System Constellation in HTML, JavaScript and Java. Why pseudo? Because it will actually sit on top of any operating system giving it a new look desktop that is platform independent and net centric. It also can be saved to a remote server so that you could access your stuff and be 'at home' on any computer connected to the Net by accessing your desktop from anywhere. These kinds of things are really going to catch on.

Netscape particularly are sticking their head out (along with Sun and Oracle to lesser extents) interface wise. But they can do it....as their products (Communicator, Constellation etc.) are cross platform they can't stick to any one look (MacOS or Win95) which might confuse other users (in say X/Windows) so they make their own look with some good innovations. Microsoft are really tied to their Windows looks now and I think we'll be only seeing evolutionary changes rather than any inspirational leaps. That might be all they need to survive, though, looking at the size of their installed user base.

Whatever happens, putting aside Java, speech, touch screens and all the other technologies that look to be arriving we can be sure of two things: Interfaces are going to get better and they are going to be more Net centric. Good or bad? In Windows95 and NT you will find that these features will come at the cost of more memory, hard disk space and processor space and the same will probably go for MacOS and its successors. For OS/2 Warp - they've already done a lot of what I'm predicting, it does need some power (and its expensive!) but the biggest question is will IBM carry on trying with their technical wonder? Sun, Network Computer (and the numerous start ups following them) will be offering some great stuff for Network Computers but whether the market ever catches on depends on Java. Netscape, well I don't think anything will stop them, Constellation will happen but whether they can pull it off successfully with a stable release and solid marketing is anyone's guess. Constellation is coming but whether its a star is yet to be ascertained. And finally the BeOS? I think we can expect an Intel port, possibly an Alpha port but this is definitely going to be catching on in the PowerPC market. Their interface is clean, it has a few problems that should be ironed out soon but it is FAST which we all love! And also it is already Net centric as Be Inc. is itself. One last thing....the dark horses: If you're making an operating systems then keep at it, any new contenders will be welcomed. The more competition we see, the more the consumer will benefit.

And what am I going to do? I'm going to get myself a BeOS machine...but that is another story altogether!

Vote in our Poll! Tell us which Operating Systems you think will lead the way.

Information: Apple, Netscape, Network Computer Inc, IBM, Be Inc, Sun Microsystems

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by Jason P. Kitcat [e-mail him]