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Ally Fogg has recently published a criticism of my blog piece UK Prisoners – The Genders Compared. Let me make one thing clear: I have no intention of dying in a ditch to defend the 5-in-6 estimate.
I wonder how many people know that the most common reason for a woman to be arrested is for violence? The first point (William Collins) misses is that the single biggest influence on whether a defendant is sent to prison (and for how long) is not their gender, or even the category of offence, but their offending history. Ref.2 page 53 indicates that the large majority of both sexes who were sentenced for an indictable offence in 2013 were repeat offenders, namely 86% of women and 91% of men.
Perhaps most critically for the analysis, Collins assumes that men and women committing the same category of offence are committing the same type of offence. It is true that I have implicitly assumed that, on average, offences committed by the two sexes within a given category are equally serious.
Knowing what we do about different patterns of offending by gender, it is utterly nonsensical to assume that the types of offences typically being committed by men and women within the categories are comparable. I don’t know what Mr Fogg thinks he knows about the differing patterns of offending, but to my mind Figures 2 and 3, above, indicate very similar patterns of offending. Of course, the very purpose of Refs.1 and 2 is supposed to be to address potential gender discrimination.
The new sections on mitigating and aggravating factors are based on the Crown Court Sentencing Survey. The very clear trend is for more mitigation to be applied to women and for more aggravating factors to be applied to men. Around one in six of the male prison population (around 11,000 excluding remand prisoners) is serving a sentence for a sexual offence. What evidence is there for the sexual offending of females being far higher than the 56-to-1 prosecution ratio would suggest? So, do I claim that my 5-in-6 figure is correct to the 9 decimal place accuracy of quantum field theory? Crime in general, and violent crime in particular, has been falling for at least the last 10 years, and perhaps the last 20 years (see here, page 30). Prison, for both men and women, is an expensive, ineffective and inhumane anachronism in a civilised society. If Mr Fogg wishes to leave a comment here I will afford him the privilege of having the last word.
To see the big picture, we suggest that you consider the sex ratio of persons in prison in England and Wales since 1750. Paedophilia (the distribution-scale opposite of gerontophilia) is thankfully very, very rare, falling as it does so far outside of the normal human biological imperative. Nonsensical legal fictions aside, such a pathology is in-born and locked in the DNA and is NOT a gender-specific trait.
Still, the legal system doesn’t make money from punishing women, so we can expect to see more men locked up instead.
Your offending history is primarily determined by whether or not a court determined that you had offended, and what institutionalization you receive as a result of that. Jail time turns you into more of a criminal, because it surrounds you with criminals and gives you no possibility of networking with the outside, legitimate world and improving your situation once you’re out.
What you seem to be saying is that, all things being equal… a person who has never been a criminal in his life is just as likely to commit any particular offense as someone who is a lifelong criminal.
But the vast majority of offenders do not go to prison and the vast majority of people who have previously offended were not imprisoned as a result, so it is unlikely to be the brutalising effects of incarceration causing the effect. Here is another statistic to make you think – killers of white women in the US get on average 14 times more prison time than killers of black men. I normally regard Foggy as a fairly reliable source of sorting the wheat from the chaff, regarding evidence supporting a particular view. It’s relatively old research you quoted but we have sustained campaigns from the likes of the Fawcett Society and MPs such as Simon Hughes (Justice Minister) who see women as needing preferential treatment when it comes to sentencing. So there is a mantra from government to the judiciary in the importance of treating women more leniently in relation to prison sentences, which filters down to the CPS, Police and others involved in criminal matters.
The government and the judiciary have been sending out a message to the Police and CPS for many years, and also guidelines and instructions that women are to be treated differently throughout the process. So even before it gets to Court, women are treated far more leniently than men by those involved, including the Police and CPS.
With this attitude from atop, Police and even those reporting crime by females know very well that women will be treated leniently by the system and on top of this attitude there is the patronising and also the feminist attitude to treating women preferentially in society. This all helps to keep women out of the Courts in the first place, whereas men are processed by the system without the same consideration. It does tho demonstrate the lengths the authorities and campaign groups will go, to keep women out of prison, simply because they are women and mothers. As you should know, I do not dispute that there is gender bias against men at every stage in the criminal justice system.
You may be right on that specific calculation, William Collins says he is not set in stone on this and is willing to be persuaded with evidence. I think the tone of your original post was unfortunate and not helpful in working towards finding the reality regarding different sentencing standards and approaches based on gender. Your previous work and your continued efforts regarding gender bias towards men and women, I applaud. Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. Lebanon Valley College, located in Annville, 10-minutes from Hershey and 2 hours from Philadelphia on a 345-acre campus, is a private liberal arts college of 1,600 undergraduate students. Presently, LVC draws the majority of their students from in-state (80%) with the balance coming from surrounding Mid-Atlantic and New England states. Lebanon Valley College offers 34 majors plus the option to self-design majors, minors, concentrations, and pre-professional options in dentistry, medicine, law, ministry, pharmacy, and veterinary science. Join me as I tour college campuses around the country and share my experiences and impressions with my students. 4.02 which shows the proportions of males and females arrested in the various crime categories. Someone with 15 or more previous convictions is nearly five times as likely to receive a custodial sentence as someone with no previous convictions. My simple broad-brush analysis takes no account of offending history, but judges will certainly take this into account in passing sentence.
He asserts that men are far more likely to be serious recidivists and thus to fairly attract more severe punishment.
However, what we are interested in is, for people who are sentenced (i.e., convicted), what are the relevant proportions of repeat offending and how does this influence the likelihood of imprisonment?

Moreover, whilst male offenders sentenced for an indictable offence were more likely to have 15 or more previous sanctions, the difference between men and women in this respect is slight: 37% of men and 30% of women. A higher proportion of males (40%) with 15 or more previous sanctions received an immediate custodial sentence compared with females (31%)“. Why, for example, does the title refer only to “women and the criminal justice system”? This is a survey given to all judges sitting in the Crown Court, for them to complete every time a sentence is passed.
I confess that I was rather beguiled by the fact that sexual offences account for only about 3% of men’s convictions each year (see Figure 2) and paid it little mind.
My thesis is that men are treated far more harshly in the criminal justice system than women.
But the 8-fold increase does align crudely with my identified factor of 6, and it has occurred over the timescale in which denigration of men has become widespread and acceptable.
Pretty much every inmate detained is a testament to multiple failures in social policy, social care, education, welfare, mental health and addiction services. But the anger which Mr Fogg so dislikes in the MRM arises because the likes of the Corston Report promulgate the view that only women are deserving of such compassion – when it is so very obvious that it is specifically men who need it more. Even if it is only 10% it is still an injustice, but given the feedback loop of how certain factors stack, and the nature of exponential growth, I would be absolutely shocked if the outcome extrapolated out to less than 1 in 2.
An obvious criticism of your estimate is that it assumes there was no bias historically when the ratio was 5:1, but there may well have been bias even then. Young children have no intrinsic sexual qualities and cannot breed, hence the need for a name for this paraphilia. The important thing is that the assumptions are reasonable, as simple as possible and not chosen in order to achieve a desired outcome in the analysis. There are a lot of reasons to think that biases in the rate of conviction from the reporting of crime, to the probability of charging, the specific offences that are applied and the probability of conviction are all likely to have similar biases. Please explain how your immediately previous comment, and that clip from your prior rebuttal can both be true.
Prison removes any possibility of a man learning to use his industry and thus improve his value in life. The Crown is a corporation of agencies and the Ministry of Justice (that word!) has remits. He has taken the approach to have a good dig at you firstly and then try to fit the evidence to support his view of you.
Repeat offending rates of women are then of course going to be lower as the whole system tries to keep women out of the courts in the first place. I have written about it extensively in the past, including in the Guardian and Independent. Annville is a quaint, small, rural town of 5,000 residents located near the Pennsylvania Dutch countryside, with a Main Street made up of the typical pizza shop, ice-cream shop, coffee shop and movie theater. LVC is known for their strong Music, Music Business, Science, Education, Actuarial Science and DPT programs.
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In my article I claimed that, if men were treated like women in the UK criminal justice system, then 5 out of every 6 men in prison would not be there. For example, if a far larger proportion of men committed heinous crimes, such as severe violence, whilst most women’s crimes were minor offenses like petty shoplifting, then it could be that men were simply getting their just deserts. I have two responses to this: the first is that it is not true (I address the sexual assault issue below), and the second is that it would not matter anyway since broadly similar disparity factors apply across all crime categories. Consequently, the rough equality in the proportion of men and women arrested or convicted for violence+sexual offences implies that there is one women convicted of these offences for every three men. Of all people processed in the justice system, women constitute 27% of first offenders, but only 14% of repeat offenders. It has long been a contention in some quarters that women are treated more harshly in the criminal justice system because they are more likely to be sent to prison on a first conviction. So, as anticipated, repeat offenders of either sex are more likely to be imprisoned, but there is again a disparity against males even for a comparable degree of recidivism. The assumption is made simply on the basis that, in the absence of contrary evidence, this is a reasonable working assumption. There are limits to what an amateur blogger with access only to publicly available information can do in a few days of effort.
The forms record details of the factors taken into account by the sentencer in deciding the sentence given to an offender. But since most of the categories are value judgments, and the survey is (literally) a tick-box exercise undertaken after the judge has already made his decision, it is inevitable that the survey should align with the trend of sentencing. Is Ally Fogg really suggesting that sexual offences, of all things, provide a counter-example to this claim? But it remains my best estimate until such a time as someone does a demonstrably better job.
If it is not discrimination within the criminal justice system then it surely must be a consequence of the societal changes which have gone hand in hand with the aforesaid denigration: family breakdown, the marginalisation of fathers and the loss of male investment in society. It is very revealing, given that acknowledgement, that we do not have a comprehensive, professional assessment to determine the truth of the matter. That suggests that 3 out of every 4 men in prison are there as a result of systemic anti-men bias.
That said, you are certainly correct that anti-men gender bias exists in every stage of the criminal justice funnel.
It could be no other figure and this is a hugely important natural scientific fact to grasp: paedophilila is not an act. Ally’s points about assumptions of equal severity between men and women ar technically true but dishonest in the sense that he suggests no better replacement for the assumption. I have no idea how to even start trying to analyse this numerically but the shocking thing that has slowly dawned on me is that if these factors are even close to the same impact as the post-conviction biases there is a chance that the entire disparity between the men and womens prison population is simply down to discrimination against men. If the system is rotten, you can’t use past determination by the system to justify current conditions. Hence, any convictions (that affect your career through background checks) or prison time affects the male ability to find a legitimate path in society far more than it affects women, and yet you’re willing to claim what you just tried to claim.
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In his speech to the House of Commons on 16 October 2012, Philip Davies, MP for Shipley, was at pains to point out that this is the opposite of the truth. To do justice to the topic would require a PhD level of investigation, and access to far more detailed data. The additions referred to are new sections on mitigating and aggravating factors which are deemed to have an impact on sentencing disparities. For heavens sake, is this not the area which is the most egregious example of different treatment of the genders?
But as one example, Michelle Elliott estimates that perhaps around 20% of paedophiles are women (see also the review here, on page 100). What I have not explored is any additional disparity in (i) likelihood of arrest, (ii) likelihood of prosecution, and, (iii) likelihood of conviction.
As a physicist I value highly being able to do a calculation in two completely independent ways. The term was unheard outside of the psychiatric profession until the 1990s that’s simply become a media term (scattered like birdseed at the feet of males) for sexual activity, real or imagined, between under-16s and over-18s in the UK.
If he suggested an alternatie it could be plugged in and the effect seen he does not I suspect because he knows that no reasonable alternative would affect the analysis result in a qualatative way.
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LVC has a few fraternities and sororities with only about 10% of the student population involved in Greek life. LVC is a member of the NCAA, ACHA (Hockey), ECAC and MAC Conferences for D-3 athletics in 24 sports. Students are applying their knowledge to the real world setting through unique learning opportunities. The outcome was, I claimed, that broadly similar factors are found in virtually all crime categories.
Fraud could be a failure to declare to the Job Centre a few quid earned for babysitting or it could be a billion pound financial scam. That it was felt necessary to add these sections (between the 2011 and 2013 editions, and hence after Philip Davies’s speech in Parliament) suggests an unacknowledged recognition that a potential case of bias needed to be addressed.
The survey is only completed for those offenders sentenced at the Crown Court, where the types of offences committed are more serious than those that go through the Magistrates’ Court. Meanwhile sexual offences are the category where convicted (people) are more likely to be imprisoned than any other, with around 60% of convicted offenders (whether male or female, incidentally, there is no major difference here) receiving immediate custodial sentences. If they come up with broadly the same answer then you can be sure you’ve got it about right. Hebephilia covers the pubescent age range (variant depending on the individual, of course) and beyond that age…well, who is to say? This is the essence of ALly’s dishonesty the results show a massive disparity in the way men and women are treated post-conviction.
I had always assumed as most do that men are mor eviolent an dmor elikely to offend bu another factor of 4 to 6 multiplied by a factor of 4 to 6 post conviction would mena that men are no more criminal than women.
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I would be happy to be proved wrong because it would mean that someone had examined this matter with more rigour than I have been able to do – in which case our knowledge and understanding would be advanced. On this basis I concluded that the disparities were gender bias since, if a man and a woman commit a crime in the same category, the man can expect to be treated more harshly to a degree reflected, on average, by these disparity factors. As the large majority of offenders are sentenced at the Magistrates’ Court (around 97% of females, compared to around 91% of males) the survey covers only a small fraction of sentencing. A good illustration of how far awry Collins’ calculations have taken him is that without any prima facie evidence of biased sentencing in sexual offences, those 11,000 sexual offenders would still be there if male sexual offenders were sentenced identically to female sexual offenders. But if men and women were truly subject to the same justice, would there really only be one female offender for every 56 men? Although giving it a precise numerical value is not strictly the point, there’s nothing quite like a specific number for making people sit up and take notice. Humans were considered biologically adult at 13 in England until the late 1800s and 12, believe it or not, until 1929 in Scotland. If all of Ally’s criticisms are true, and they may well not be this result would not be affected at all.
This is not in any sense evidence but makes an even stronger case that some real research should be done. It was evident that LVC does a superior job advancing awareness surrounding issues of social justice both individually and collectively.
Typical weekends are filled with athletics; football games are a community gathering with 85 players, 125 in the marching band, 25 cheerleaders, and 12 color guards. These disparity factors explain why there are more than 20 times as many men in prison as women, despite the fact that only slightly more than 3 times as many men are convicted of crimes per year.
Interestingly, and in contrast, where an issue is factual rather than a value judgement, there can be little difference. And yet one can list hundreds of cases of female teachers in the USA being convicted for sexually exploiting their pupils. Your argument based on historical comparison is fully independent from mine based on a snap-shot in time, and yet the estimates of 3-in-4 and 5-in-6 are, as far as I am concerned, much the same (to within the error bars of the analyses).
It is endemic in our society and prevents female offence in this category being recognised – at least, that is my contention. I take that as powerful confirmation of what we are both claiming: that the anti-male (or pro-female) bias in sentencing is not minor but huge. It seems likely, though I have no proof, that women in the UK having sex with under-aged boys is under-recognised and under-prosecuted. Again, shrouded in mystery and controversy, but almost certainly far more widespread than is recognised either in society as a whole or in the criminal justice system in particular.

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