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It’s useful to expand our horizons on a regular basis and take a look at the longer-term picture when it comes to the equities markets.
The picture changes a bit when we look at real returns – total returns adjusted for inflation.
Another good chart idea is to graph the log of the total return adjusted for inflation expressed as a multiplier over time. Does that mean the last three decades’ inflation numbers have also been adjusted as methods of determining inflation have been changed?


I did this over different cycle-lengths and found that with a 20-year rolling period the correlation between the prior 20-year return and subsequent 20-year return was like -.9.
Although the S&P 500 yield is near it’s all-time low, in the current environment it supplies the lion’s share of total return. Exhibit 2 shows the rolling 10-year average annual inflation adjusted total return for the S&P 500 from 1926 through the end of 2011. Exhibit 1 shows the rolling 10-year average annual total return and the rolling 10-year average annual income return of the S&P 500 from 1926 through the end of 2011.


On a real basis, we can see that the recent market lows are the worst on record since, and including, the Great Depression – bottoming at –5.86% in February 2009. As we can see, recent returns have been downright dismal and most closely resemble the period following the Great Depression in the 1930s.



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