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Astros top prospect Alex Bregman has started his deservedly-hyped MLB career by going 2-for-35  in his first nine games. My league mate will remain anonymous to protect his idiocy, and in his defense I joined the league mid-season as a replacement owner, so I can’t blame him for wanting to see if I was a fish. There is a great book that came out earlier this year that completely changed the way I value fantasy baseball players. There is an excerpt in it that pretty much sums up my position on stats and prospects very well, even though it is referring to fantasy baseball projections. Keep in mind that this quote is coming from someone who has made a career out of projecting and analyzing baseball statistics and is a pioneer in applying sabermetrics to fantasy baseball. According to the work of Russell Carleton of Baseball Prospectus, batting average doesn’t begin to stabilize as a reliable statistic until around 910 at bats. This is especially true when they have been performing exceedingly well in the minor leagues like Bregman had been where he had posted a .986 OPS across two levels.
Bregman’s Astros teammate Carlos Correa was the talk of the league last year when at age 20 he came up to the bigs and hit 22 home runs with 68 runs batted in and 14 stolen bases in just 387 at bats and snagged the AL Rookie of the Year award.


Sabermetrics, is all about collecting relevant data and analyzing it, weeding out the predictive numbers from their non-predictive brethren.
In this case, we’ll use the eyes of fellow hyped-prospect Clint Frazier  to tell us what we need to know about Bregman going forward and forget that he only has two hits since his call-up. But eventually, for the supremely talented at least, the skills and and the hard work begin to manifest in results on the field. The second-overall pick in last year’s draft had dominated in the minors, but spent only 18 games at Triple-A before getting the call to the majors. But when thinking about Alex Bregman‘s struggles to open his presumably soon-to-be-successful MLB career, I began to realize just how a small sample size of stats and a little recency bias can sour us on once-lauded prospects seemingly overnight.
I was convinced that a Twitter poll would show just how reactionary fans are when it comes to rookie call-ups and poor initial performances.
Astros fans on Twitter were split on whether he is in a slump or whether it is too soon to tell. Even the most casual baseball fan intuitively understands that 35 at bats is not nearly enough to say anything definitive about Bregman’s future prospects in MLB.


If you are in a re-draft fantasy league vying for your league title, you drop Bregman and look for a hot hand. Reed) – scouting reports and the eyes of experienced talent evaluators are our best tools to help us assess what a player might perform like in the future, not an extremely small sample of poor at bats or a fancy sabermetric stat. Not quite on the same level as the super-smart, saber guys with Economics degrees on FanGraphs. Every Day.Build your own custom daily newsletter with updates on your favorite teams, sent directly to your inbox.
We hold them to a higher standard of performance than we might normally, because they have been hyped for years and often have not experienced much failure in the minor leagues.



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