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New York Daily News The effects of global warming: How American cities will look if sea level rises How American cities will look if sea level rises due to global warming Still don't think global warming is real?
My hunt for global warming in uninhabited areas of the Southern Hemisphere continues with Antarctica. This observation does not include 3 stations from the Antarctic Peninsula that clearly belong to a separate climatic regime and are therefore treated separately. Stations were selected by clicking around on the NASA GISS V2 map, looking for stations with long and continuous records. Figure 1 Antarctic stations arranged in order of latitude with the exception of Rothera Point that is plotted out of order. Figure 3 Owing to the research station basis for Antarctic bases, this is one of the most continuous set of temperature records on the planet. Figure 5 Converting the temperatures in Figure 4 to anomalies creates this picture of dT  spaghetti. Figure 7 From the way I have over the years learned to view trends, I could see from Figure 6 that arbitrarily selecting a different start date would produce a different outcome. The Antarctic Peninsula projects northwards into the ocean and is almost surrounded by water. Figure 9 Adding Base Orcadas and Grytviken we can see that Base Orcadas blends in with the peninsula records. Figure 10 Looking at dT anomalies from the Peninsula we can see that the two normalisation methods give identical results.
Figure 12 Simply running linear regressions through data like this actually makes little sense.
One feature of the Antarctic data that I believe is significant is the large amplitude oscillations in temperature that can take place from one year to the next. Can a simple climatic circulation model such as this explain the substantial warming trend on The Peninsula?
Does the rise in temperature 0f 0.35?C since 1954 and 0.00?C since 1969 for the continent data set give rise for any concern? Figure 13 dT for the 14 continental stations show a warming of about +0.15?C for the summer quarter DJF. It is only during the summer months of DJF that melting is possible and there has been effectively no warming in these months since 1955.
With news packed with stories about melting Antarctic ice, global warming causing Antarctic Sea ice to expand and so on, readers have every right to be confused and disorientated by what the data actually shows.
Temperature anomalies for 14  Antarctic stations, distributed around the coast and in the interior of the continent, excluding the peninsula, show a warming of +0.35?C since 1954.
I am one of the folks who believe the planet is indeed experiencing a warming trend as the result of human activities. The question is whether the ENTIRE planet is or is not warming up faster that can be accounted for by non human factors. Who has records proving that there has been a cooling trend for a period extending back over any large area far fifty years or more ? Statistical analysis is above my pay grade given that I got only a sketchy introduction to the subject back in the dark ages and have forgotten most of even that little bit.
Of course even if warming is proven this does not necessarily conclusively prove that it is the result of human activity. Now some proof of a cooling trend over a large area for say fifty years would be an impressive argument. My personal opinion is that while warming is real and will eventually result in some severe disruption of the planetary ecology and the world economy the more immediate and pressing question is how we will get thru the next half century when we come belly to belly and nose to nose with fossil fuel depletion. We have to survive THAT confrontation before we have to get into the ring with the climate monster. So far as I can tell there is just about indisputable evidence that the waters of the world ocean are warming significantly – which tells us where the excess heat energy is currently being stored. BUT if that heat is going mainly into the top few hundred feet of water – then it may wind up in the atmosphere over a relatively short period with some nasty consequences.
Nobody has that evidence, because the Earth is warming and most differences between hemispheres or places are due to heat redistribution through ocean or atmosphere circulation. Climate is always changing on a decadal, centennial and millennial scale and all during the Holocene there has been warming phases that come right after Bond events, and the last Bond event was the Little Ice Age (LIA) that ended about 250 years ago, so we should expect warming at this time. If a great part of the warming is natural, that means that we should not worry too much about triggering a warming Armageddon. Don’t you think that is worth exploring what is the cause of the warming, instead of trying to prove that is man made?
We announced that we had collected enough observations to conclude that the retreat of ice in the Amundsen sea sector of West Antarctica was unstoppable , with major consequences – it will mean that sea levels will rise one metre worldwide. Upstream of the 2011 grounding line positions, we find no major bed obstacle that would prevent the glaciers from further retreat and draw down the entire basin. That Amundsen Sea coastline is far south, almost as far south as McMurdo and Scott where the temperatures are typically -20 and rarely get above zero. I have now looked at Central Australia, Southern Africa, Patagonia, Antarctica and S Island New Zealand and see precious little evidence for warming of the land at high latitude across the S hemisphere since 1880. Euan, can I suggest that you consider 2 things, the first being UHI, this has already been noticed and mentioned for Polar Scientific Stations. You can see from that how the wind blowing on and back off the Land and Sea Ice is cooling the Oceans and obviously slightly warming the land. You can then switch it to Sea Currents and also see how the Peninsula and the South American coasts squeeze the currents passing from south to north and how close they are to the land compared to everywhere else aroung the coast.
So I think we can take it that any resemblance between GISS’s series and actual temperatures in the 64-90S latitude zone before about 1957, when readings on the Antarctic mainland began, is purely coincidental. No point in me putting any thought into a post as judging by the last two you’ll trash it. Do you think that finding such a different temperature trend in the Northern hemisphere versus the Southern (and also Arctic vs, Antarctic) is surprising or to be expected? I’ve read that warming D-O events during Glacial periods are a NH feature that are transmitted to the SH trough a polar seesaw mechanism based on oceanic currents changes.
If Bond events are the equivalent to the cold phase of D-O events during an Interglacial then it is possible that the warming phase should be more prominent in the NH before the heat is moved to the SH later on (perhaps centuries later).
Why are we still arguing about whether the warming in the late 20th Century was or was not anthropogenic, without even discussing the real possibility that Nature may have made the issue irrelevant? The second and potentially much larger bombshell is that ESA’s Swarm magnetometer satellites have confirmed that the geomagnetic field is becoming disorganized and is rapidly losing its strength (5% per decade!).


The magnetic poles are now drifting, and the field is weakening, just as fast as in the Laschamp Event. The longer they take to occur together to bring about a full glaciation the longer humans have to prepare and even possibly invent technologies to slow it down or prevent it. Use these free images for your websites, art projects, reports, and Powerpoint presentations! Unlike its smaller sibling, the Picanto, the Kia Rio wears a full camouflage livery on its body. The design of the next Kia Rio is concealed pretty well by the camouflage pattern fitted to the body, but we know that it will get several parts from its Hyundai equivalent. The interior of the MY 2017 Kia Rio is anticipated to receive a technology upgrade and better comfort features, similarly to what sister brand Hyundai did with the i20, its subcompact model. These photos, showing American cities as they are now and as they will be if sea level rises, may be your game changer. Given the proclamations of the climate alarm community and global media I was expecting to find a continent in melt down.
There is clear sign of gradual warming confirmed by regression and rising tops and bottoms. I ended up with 14 stations from the main continent, 3 stations on the Antarctic Peninsula that reaches up towards South America and 2 stations  from Islands to the NW of the Peninsula (Figure 1, 2). The only limitation is that it begins in earnest in 1956 and there is only 55 years of data (better on the peninsula and islands). Here I have added normalisation to a fixed period of 1963 to 1992 where the station anomaly is referenced to the mean temperature for that station in that fixed time period. The gradient suggested by the regression is confirmed by tops and bottoms rising at similar gradient. Doing so allows me to claim that there is no evidence of warming in the Antarctic continent since 1969, that is for the last 42 years.
Its temperature records are distinctly different to the continent and are therefore treated separately. These three stations show a fairly high degree of congruity and the trend of rising tops and bottoms is quite clear. Grytviken, 6.5? further North, is clearly a lot warmer and has much less year on year variance.
The data suggest warming of +3?C since 1944 when records began. If CO2 forced warming or ozone depletion are the cause, then in the Antarctic peninsula it began in 1944 at a time when much of the northern hemisphere began to cool and at a time when the atmospheric CO2 was of the order 310 ppm, barely elevated from pre-industrial levels.
Since the pre-1944 records for the islands are flat, stretching the record back to 1903 has the effect of  substantially reducing the warming rate. It is an unavoidable first approach but there is more to this data than simple linear trends.
The cold temperatures on the peninsula that year linked to a greater amount of wind blowing from the South.
I am beginning to become increasingly alarmed and concerned by the conduct of the climate science and climate alarm community. The temperature records for the Peninsula are congruous with islands to the NW (New Orkney and South Georgia) and bear witness to a larger area of warming that is dominated by the marine environment.
Nobody who is technically LITERATE will argue that the world may be hotter at some spots on average and cooler at others due to natural variations.
If there is a preponderance of places indicating a eve a slight warming trend then warming is proven if the sample is large enough and I believe the sample is more than ample. If that heat energy winds up in really deep waters it will stay there for pretty long time given the fact that the deep waters don’t come back to the surface for centuries.
The point is how much of the warming is attributable to man and how much is natural, because IPCC AGW theory of 100% man made is based on assumptions that might not be true, and has problems to predict the evolution of the climate. And more CO2 and higher temperatures could continue to be positive, as they have been since 1750.
What’s more, its disappearance will likely trigger the collapse of the rest of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which comes with a sea level rise of between three and five metres.
IMO this strongly suggests that the oceans cannot be warming either since if they were, they would be sending warmer air across the land masses for which there is no evidence.
You an also see how the Peninsula and the South American coast is affecting the wind flow around the Peninsula, which along with the sea is warmer than the rest of the Antarctic coast. There are no surface air or sea surface temperature records in the Antarctic before about 1945.
They take the readings from other Southern Hemisphere stations that are thousands of miles away and use a model to infill the Antarctic temperature values. There are no usable SST data over the far Southern oceans over this period and the closest land station with data going back to 1880 is Dunedin in New Zealand. But I hope we’re going to have a discussion about land area, population, energy use and land use change.
It is very likely that the next grand solar minimum (now called the Eddy Minimum, after astronomer John Eddy) has begun.
The last times this happened were the Mono Lake and Laschamp geomagnetic excursions, 33 and 40 thousand years ago. Doubling the flux could cause a geomagnetic winter, much colder than at any time since the Holocene began. My current opinion is that the odds are better than 50:50 that the Eddy Minimum will cause serious cooling during the next few decades, but we do not know enough about the geodynamo (the chaotic electromagnetohydrodynamic outer core of the Earth that creates the geomagnetic field) to make any reliable predictions about the Swarm Event. Just like its relative, the Rio now has daytime running lights with LEDs that have a new design. This helps the mother company save money on development of new engines, platforms, and technologies and brings the consumers the most advanced cars the Korean carmaker can provide in this price range. Artist and researcher Nickolay Lamm has compiled renderings of popular tourist destinations nearly under water. Given that the continent to the South and Patagonia to the North show barely any signs of warming at all, the dramatic rise in temperature on the Antarctic Peninsula can hardly be attributed to CO2 forcing of temperature change or to ozone depletion. Following the Antarctic Circle that passes through the northern tip of the peninsula it can bee seen that the coastline for much of the continent to the E lies on the Antarctic Circle. In other words, dT for a station = annual mean temperature minus mean temperature for the station over the time series for that station.
It can be seen quite clearly for this group of stations that the dT gradient is identical for both normalisation procedures. One striking feature is the sharp drop in temperatures in 1980, in marked contrast to the continent that showed warming at this time.


The latter is likely caused by distance from the continent and temperature buffering effect of the surrounding ocean. And second, in the pre-1944 part of the record the two normalisation procedures diverge, but not materially so. The argument would go that with the passage of decades The Peninsula has come under progressively greater influence of marine climate. If you look at the summer monthly averages (Dec and Jan) for the warm group of stations it can bee seen that some months do average just above zero meaning that day time temperatures will regularly be above zero for brief spells each summer. Most of the +0.35?C rise must reside in the autumn, winter and spring months when temperatures will rarely rise above 0?C anywhere and will therefore have no impact on Arctic ice at all. While the climate alarm community have sought to explain this warming by anthropogenic causes, in particular via ozone depletion, the simplest explanation is that natural climate variability has seen this area receive increasing amounts of ocean-atmosphere circulation with time. We have weather records now for just about the entire populated part of the planet , well distributed. They are a political organization with an agenda and if they turn to be wrong on this issue they will not admit it, so in essence they can be an obstacle to finding the truth. But it strikes me they are describing the pattern of glacial retreat and I did not see that they attribute cause. Pay particular attention to the Bay north east of the Peninsula, it is 20 Degrees C colder than the sea opposite and adjacent to the peninsula. There have been 5 such minima in the last thousand years (the Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton Minima), and each one led to serious cooling from the prevailing climate. I am certainly not forecasting either a geomagnetic winter or the next glaciation – but how do we exclude the possibilities? Their shape reminds us of Audi models, a curious coincidence since Kia’s design department is led by a gentleman who used to design Audis, Peter Schreyer. Like its siblings, the Rio will be updated in an attempt to reduce weight while increasing crash protection and body rigidity. This is practically the time in which the human species really evolved as a civilization, making its mark on the planet, abandoning the hunter-gatherer traditions to settle down into an agricultural, settlement focused lifestyle.They used indirect markers, like pollen and shells from marine organisms to chart long time warming and cooling trends. They're meant to project the impact of a rising sea level due to global warming - and to bring the alarming results to life.
14 stations distributed around the edge and in the centre of the continent show a warming trend of +0.35?C since 1954. Rather, there appears to have been a change in climatic regime that is shared with the South Orkney Islands (Base Orcadas) and South Georgia (Grytviken).
Halley, Scott and McMurdo lie further south than the other coastal stations and are at a similar latitude to Vostok.
In this chart I can see a high degree of congruity between stations, in other words they are all going up and down together, with some exceptions. But Grytviken also shows distinct warming from the 1950s to the present day, despite a long break in the record.
Warming tops and cooling bottoms giving rise to a flat trend until about 1959,  and then rising tops and bottoms giving rise to a warming trend.
The Peninsula receives wind from two principle areas 1) off the continent which will always be very cold air (katabatic winds blow continually from the centre to the coast) and 2) off the ocean that will always be much warmer air.
This may happen via a large convection cell that sucks air up from the ocean and blows it down over the pole ( a strengthening of the polar cell).
While still oscillating between continental and marine influence from one year to the next. Doing this exercise prompted me to look at seasonal temperature change on The Peninsula that will be the subject of a separate post.
I would simply say that we are in an inter-glacial and glaciers are supposed to melt and retreat. The obvious answer, carefully ignored, is that glacial transitions are related to these excursions, not the other way around. I would be delighted to hear some cogent reasons why these catastrophes will not happen — but, absent such assurances, we need to start thinking about the unthinkable. Warmer temperatures may be attributed to greater marine and less continental influence in the atmospheric circulation pattern. Vostok lies further N than the S pole but is colder than Amundsen-Scott in part because of its higher altitude: 3488m, compared with the S Pole at 2835m.
Understanding the reasons for this pattern will unlock the understanding of the reasons for warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. And so I think it is reasonable to presume that the warm years had on average a larger share of oceanic circulation and the colder years a larger share of continental circulation. The area lies in the path of the circumpolar marine current and circumpolar atmospheric vortex.
To some extent it will depend where this tiny amount of warming lies in the seasonal data and we can check that by looking at seasonl trends (Figure 13). The activities of Man, CO2 increase and ozone depletion have had no significant impact on the temperature records of the Antarctic continent. The strong probability must be carefully ignored that the cooling is due to the effect on clouds of the unquestionable variation in the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) with the solar magnetic field, and hence with sunspot activity. In other words, the excursion, with its enormous increase in GCRs and thus major cooling, is part of the process that initiates glaciation.
If Svensmark et al are right, we may see the Thames freezing in winter, and people walking from Manhattan to Staten Island over the sea-ice, as happened in the 17th Century – and the cold may last for most of this century. If this is true, the Swarm Event could mean the end of the Holocene and the start of the next glacial stage. At the very least, we should be thinking about the consequences for agriculture, energy use, etc., and making contingency plans in case the new Little Ice Age is upon us. Within a century or two, the ice sheets could be kilometers thick over most of Europe and much of North America – and these conditions would last a thousand centuries, as they did during the last glaciation.
Clearly the coastal setting is warmer and the coastal stations climate is influenced by the ocean.
There is a small positive bump in the temperature record in 1980 seen in Vostok and the majority of other stations.



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