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Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 Earnings; Should Investors be Concerned?
Earnings season for the second quarter is expected to reflect changes in the capital markets along with commentary on future prospects of banks, as they attempt to cope with the aftermath of Brexit vote. Generally, it’s safe to say that the setup remains tough for banks, with Brexit flattening the yield curve further and decreasing rate hike hopes. The earnings season for the banking sector in the US is expected to kick off this week as large-cap banks will commence the reporting of their financial results. Since the start of this year, the banking sector along with the broader industry has been surrounded with uncertainty from the macro side. Since then, the central bank has kept rates on hold at every Federal Open Market Committee meeting held this year. Considering the aftermath of this referendum, markets now expect low earnings from the banking sector, owing to the fading possibilities of a hike along with weaknesses in the capital markets and slowdown of M&A activity. Analysts at Credit Suisse raised their 2QFY16 estimate for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to reflect a healthier operating backdrop for the trading businesses, on the back of a rebound in the credit markets along with growing trading activity during and around the referendum vote in Britain.
While there are several macro concerns, the key macro variable for broker earnings in the second half of this year is expected to be the state of credit markets. It is of the belief that 2QFY16 was the best quarter for credit market asset prices since 2009, and there was elevated trading activity in and around the Brexit vote. Separately, earnings could be further supported by the acceleration in capital return and potentially early payoff from cost-saving initiatives at Morgan Stanley (Project Streamline). Analyst at Credit Suisse raised their 2QFY16 earnings per share (EPS) estimates to $3.50, reflecting better conditions in credit markets, which could improve FICC revenues.
Just ahead of its earnings, Fitch Ratings affirmed the company's Issuer Default Rating of "BBB+" with a stable outlook.
KB Home and Lennar Corporation were the first to release earnings in the sector, setting a tone for the home-building sector. Despite both KB Home and Lennar beating expectations, analysts have mixed sentiments on the home-builder's earnings. At Bidness, we are developing the most comprehensive and easy to use institutional financial data platform for investment management and investment banking.

The trademarks, logos and service marks displayed on the website, including but not limited to the Bidness Etc logo, are marks or registered marks of Bidness Etc and others. Just received the official lowdown, looks pretty nice to me and will look great next to Dean and my old Marilyn. The collectible figure stands approximately 30 cm tall, over 20 points of articulation, features the likeness of Marlon Brando, the legendary Hollywood actor in the 50?s. Concerns after Britons decided to leave the bloc increased, jeopardizing the calmness in financial markets.
Investors and analysts are expected to keep a close watch on the earnings results of US brokers and the subsequent movement in their stock prices. Fears of slow emerging economies and weak global economic growth threaten the possibility of a recession. With weaknesses in the labor market along with fears of global slowdown, expectations of rate hikes started to diminish. Banks with heavy exposure to the UK and reliability on revenue from overseas are expected to see elevated risk of global slowdown.
In addition, trading volumes in fixed-income markets were mostly higher than the year-ago levels, although down from the first quarter. Credit Suisse is of the belief that both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs trade below their book values, representing the negative sentiment consistent with market turmoil and not reflecting the improvement in fundamentals. The research firm continues to recommend an Outperform rating on Goldman Sachs stock with a target price of $180. The rating agency took into account the company's strong credit protection measures and solid free cash flow generation for the said outlook. Our mission is to be the worlda€™s most trusted financial data search and discovery platform.
Good further added that the company is on track to buy Piedmont Natural Gas and is offloading its assets in Latin America. It is of the belief that volatility in markets and weakness in capital markets might take a toll on banks’ earnings. In order to fully understand the potential impact on the upcoming earnings results, it is important to consider the headwinds in this year as well.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December last year, which was believed to be the initiation of a new cycle that would follow a series of additional hikes. Now, Brexit has endangered markets with another wave of political, economic, and financial uncertainty.
Analysts at Wells Fargo recently downgraded Citigroup, as the bank has a major chunk of its revenue generated from outside the domestic market. Most importantly, investment banking activity improved across the industry from a lackluster first quarter but remained weak when compared to the preceding year. It says the company has the ability to grapple any financial downturn due to its solid liquidity position.
The company's stock came under pressure when founder, Bill Pulte, termed the management of the retiring CEO Richard Dugas as inadequate and called for an immediate change. He believes that his company will become more profitable and focus more on its domestic infrastructure businesses, once the aforementioned deals are completed. On the contrary, the start of 2016 wasn’t favorable for uplift, as concerns from outside of the US mounted. Based on the data from the firm Dealogic, investment banking fees for the overall industry totaled around $17.8 billion, down 18% YoY, but up 11% in the sequential measure. The firm continues to recommend a Neutral rating on Morgan Stanley stock with a raised target price of $28. Jeffrey Mezger, president and CEO KB Home, said at the earnings call that there is continued improvement in housing market conditions.
In the midst of this storm, bank stocks nosedived and many got close to their 52-week low as fears about future crept in.

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