In this context, I was responsible and project leader for this whole Risk Section of the submission form. That is why it is necessary to establish an adapted systematic framework to perform preliminary analysis of all the risks that could threaten such a project.
Risk analysis, and risk theory in general, has already been very much investigated in a wide range of activities and specialities. Moreover, current risk methodologies are almost always focused on a single factor and their conduct is very much scattered, each team or department launching its own risk analysis independently, consequently leading to separate efforts and reports.
The different registers respectively focus on technical risks (lato sensu : includes some human and environmental risks mainly as consequences.
Information needed to identify risks and characterize them is based on a benchmarking of existing and recognized aspect-specific risk methodologies, previous risk analysis, as well as knowledge taken from the whole CCS bibliograpy associated with personal brainstorming. This enables to compare risks against each other and allows us to understand the total level of risk facing the program at any given time.
It is multi-issue: the whole project’s risk system is represented, which is not the case of most of existing specialized methods.
Based on the results of the audits, the Library decided to conduct formal risk assessments of the environments and control activities within selected divisions. The risk associated with an internal control weakness over the safeguarding of the collection assets is assessed ashigh, moderate, or low, depending upon the degree to which present policies and procedures make it highly probable that: 1. The Library of Congress, as a library of last resort that serves primarily the research needs of Congress, has a low tolerance of risk for monographs and manuscripts. In 1997, the Library chose to start the risk assessment process by examining its Geography & Map Division. The final steps in the risk-assessment process are designed to summarize the results of the assessment and translate them into actions for management. Assessing risk and identifying controls are just two steps in the business risk model.
Janco's threat, risk and vulnerability assessment is an objective evaluation of threats, risks, and vulnerabilities in which assumptions and uncertainties are clearly considered and presented. Then, the risk analysis methodology will be presented before stressing main marches and lessons to learn from it . As sources of uncertainty, these issues linked to the innovative status of the technology are also critical threats to any CCS project’s completion and need to be addressed through adapted risk analysis.
There already exist various recognized methodologies for analysing and assessing technological risks, financial risks, environmental impacts, and so on. Setting up a formalised level of risk answer is deeply dependent on the determination of the level of risk acceptability (e.g. Companies involved in CCS projects will additionally benefit from outputs resulting from the methodology’s application to Belchatow project, risk registers and risk matrix being given as templates. Risk assessment is the identification and analysis of internal and external risks relevant to the achievement of objectives.
Just as the clues to uncovering business risk are found in the mission statement, relevant controls are derived from an examination of business risks.
The degree and type of control placed on an item depend upon its relative value and risk of loss or deterioration relative to other items in the collection. 10-11, defines the Library's four relevant controls, provides examples of each type, and describes risks that may be present if these controls are weak. This leads to concentrated and gathered information preciously needed by the project management board, especially in the beginning of the project when it is the most important to identify and tackle risks.
While not all libraries will face the same risks in equal measure and degree, the risks they face will fall into these four categories, as will the controls designed to mitigate them. No situation or environment can ever be totally risk-free, and reducing risk costs money, whether in the form of additional insurance coverage or of funding to implement tighter controls. This objective was reached by building an innovative integrated risk analysis methodology and applying it to Belchatow’s case, all in two months time. Likewise, it would make the risk assessment very complex, as the probability assessment of a risk depends on the probability of its causes, and its impact assessment depends on the severity of its induced range of consequences.
Due to the scope and the multi-disciplinary nature of the CCS risk analysis, a team effort is needed to produce the desired outcome. Where more details can be needed, and further studies carried out, is for risks located around the acceptability frontier, or in order to improve precision of some high risks’ criticality in order to help select most appropriated mitigation measures.
From this comparison, management determined whether business risks were acceptable or whether controls needed to be instituted to mitigate some of them. At this point in the risk assessment process, management must decide how much risk the institution is willing to accept—a decision that usually comes down to cost versus benefit, because no institution has unlimited resources. A risk with a large potential loss and a low probability of occurring is often treated differently from one with a low potential loss and a high likelihood of occurring. The quickest way to efficiently gather people’s knowledge is to set up thematical risk workshops, involving different experts and managers from the different companies participating to the project, where these key people could discuss, brainstorm, and commonly assess risks previously compiled in the different risk registers. Management analyzed the types of risks within each level to determine whether there were any pervasive weaknesses of a particular control type. In theory, both are of nearly equal priority in dealing with first, but in practice it can be very difficult to manage when faced with the scarcity of resources, especially time, in which to conduct the risk management process. College library managers may accept the risk to their collections when those controls fail occasionally, because it is worth it to meet student needs.
Similarly, risk may be unacceptable if a monograph is not cataloged or the number of copies the institution holds is not noted in a bibliographical database.
A judicious choice of formats and genres produces a risk assessment that allows extrapolation from these data to similar types of collection items.

On the basis of its definition of business risk, the Library of Congress worked with its independent auditors to document substantial risks to the collections and to identify appropriate safeguarding controls. Library management realized that risks would need to be calibrated on the basis of the likelihood of their occurrence and on the magnitude of impact, should they occur. Whether risk was acceptable would be determined by the degree to which one or more of the above situations could occur (likelihood of occurrence) and the degree to which the situation would adversely affect the integrity of the collections (magnitude of impact). Before the Library could begin its risk assessment, management had to determine which internal controls were relevant. To establish a common language for this segregation by risk, the Library uses names of five precious metals—platinum, gold, silver, bronze, and copper—that describe groups of items in the collections by degree of tolerance for risk.
Silver includes items that require special handling and items at particularly high risk of theft, such as computer software, popular titles in print, videos, and compact discs. Other libraries can readily devise similar ranking systems to define degrees of risk specific to their collections. This risk tolerance category determines the levels of controls placed over the Library's items.
The Library has now conducted risk assessments of most of its special collections, its general collections, and areas that perform essential activities to service the collections, such as the Preservation Directorate, the Copyright Office, and the Collections Management Division. For those risks that the institution decides it cannot tolerate, management must introduce mitigating control activities. 4 Some special format collections share off-site storage space, but this is undesirable and has been assessed as a risk to the inventory control and preservation of those items.
5 To avoid inconveniencing patrons, managers often resist simple security and preservation controls that greatly reduce risk to the collections, such as requiring researchers to don protective gloves to examine fragile materials or allowing only staff to photocopy materials. On the base of this work, the present article proposes a reference methodological tool allowing to quickly identify, assess and prioritize all types of risks that could threat any CCS project’s proper implementation, and to develop necessary adapted mitigation actions. The global purpose of a risk management process is to plan, organize, lead, and control the activities of an organization or project in order to minimize the effects of risks on its objectives.
Considering the objective to ensure that everything is done to make a project successful and fully operational on time, appropriate definition is the one given in the PMBOK (Project Management Body of Knowledge) Guide, an internationnally recognized standard for project management. The main conceptual issue in listing risks is to find a way to reduce a multi-scenarios tree into a one dimension list. Semi-quantitative risk assessment, as qualitative one, does not use any metrics, computing simulations or else. Once individual risks have been attributed a criticality score, it is possible to establish formalised actions based upon the risk grading. It is multi-usage: the results can be examined as a whole by the management board, using risk mapping or risk repartition, but it can also be used by different department managers and specialists, focusing on dimension-specific risk registers and developing separate aspect-specific risk maps. My work at Alstom was thus to provide a general preliminary Risk Analysis for Belchatow large-scale CCS project, in direct relation with the leading entity of the project, PGE.
Once risk analysis is carried out, actions must be implemented and risks communicated and followed-up in a proactive and iterative process. Indeed, it can non-exhaustively depend on the risk target (a territory, an ecosystem, a company, a project, a worker, or else), the risk owner or term user (an engineer, a modelist, a manager, a trader, etc.), the risk nature (health risks, financial risks, project risks, etc.
Subjectivity is due to the matrices being determined by project‘s management board and risk assessment being based on human expertise.
The business risk model presented in this report was developed to satisfy the second of the five elements of the COSO framework, namely risk assessment. To conduct control activities and identify risks, mechanisms must exist within the organization to capture and communicate relevant information at all levels.
A single-page manuscript has a higher risk of physical loss than does a large monograph.
Moreover, it demands a quantitative mathematical treatment later in the assessment which makes it quite heavy. Therefore, the risk-assessment process would be more efficient if collections were first segregated by major format types that tend to share similar risk.
For instance, if the risk assessment reveals that existing physical security is inadequate, the institution will likely need to acquire security personnel or equipment to reduce the risk to an acceptable level.
Depending on the case, risks can be defined as probabilities, losses, products of both, possibilities, events or conditions. For the severity assessment, it can be done using several scales based on main types of impact the considered risk could lead to. The higher the score, the stronger the needed response to set the risk below the acceptability threshold.
Assessments are a continuous part of the internal control process because emerging economic, regulatory, political, and operating conditions will change the type and degree of risks faced by an organization. For each weakness, the team assessed the degree of risk and whether management was willing to accept the risk. In addition, risk is often employed undistinctively to other close notions such as uncertainty, threat, danger, hazard, issue, which add to its polymorpheous nature. The frequency and depth of the monitoring activities depend on the amount and degree of risk faced by the organization. The impact of a high-risk behavior is obviously greater if the item at risk is a holograph Emily Dickinson poem rather than the second copy of the fourth edition of Joseph Heller's Catch 22. Each item has its own risks, based on physical features of the recording medium and perceived value, and in each case, the risks are dynamic and change over time.
In contrast, risk may be acceptable if individual pieces of a collection of manuscript correspondence do not receive item-level description, provided there are compensating controls in place.
The focus of the auditors' assessment was control activities, which in the Library range from cataloging standards and practices to protocols for the physical handling of acetate disks or eight-track tapes.

The assessments would be done in the divisions where collections of differing formats were either permanently stored or temporarily handled as they arrived, or where they were serviced in some manner within the Library. KPMG provided the structure for the risk assessments, employing internal control evaluation techniques similar to those used for financial statement audits. After the risk-assessment results had been reported, management was expected to institute new controls or strengthen existing controls to reduce unacceptable risks. It attempted to examine every type of collection item that carried specific risks so that it could extrapolate what had been learned to other similar materials that were not scheduled for assessment. Some risks can be overcome by changes in policies or procedures; overcoming others requires additional monetary or personnel resources.
Part of the difficulty of risk management is that measurement of both of the quantities in which risk assessment is concerned - potential loss and probability of occurrence - can be very difficult to measure. Below is a sample of a risk assessment created with the Threat Vulnerability Assessment Tool.
In that way the client has the ability to leverage the experience of Janco in areas of risk assessment and security management and control.
A risk-optimized strategy relies on the use of risk analysis, which, after definition of the system and the way to model it, involves risk identification (discovering, defining and reporting risks in the most exhaustive way as possible), risk assessment (determining identified risks’ criticality through a measure of their likelihood to occur and the severity of their occurrence’s impacts, which allows to rank and prioritize risks), and definition of a risk mitigation plan (selecting options and actions to be taken in order to set risk at an acceptable level based on project constraints and objectives).
On the base of these evaluations, a criticality score (or risk priority number, as used in FMEA methodology) is given to each risk, multiplying values from 1 to 4 given to both likelihood and severity categories.
Figure 8 summarizes the whole integrated preliminary risk analysis process we have been detailing along this second chapter.
It is relatively simple and quick: a first-approach risk picture of the project can be obtained in a little time with few data, which is not the case of any quantitative method. Risks are thus defined as “uncertain events that have the potential to negatively affect the project’s capacity to achieve its objectives and commitments, or that may cause an execution failure in the project. If a risk is highly critical, only thing we need to know is that it is in the unacceptable area and that strong actions must be implemented. Despite the absence of a baseline risk assessment for the collections, the auditors could draw significant conclusions about the control environment and note what information was gathered, how well it was communicated, and how various monitoring systems operated. But not all libraries have closed stacks, even if it places their collections at some risk.
These differences affect the amount of risk to the assets that management is willing to tolerate. The risks that management was not willing to accept were sorted by level of risk (high, medium, or low) and by control type (bibliographic, inventory, preservation, or physical).
Types of impact have been split into 5 categories (inspired from risk system’s representation, see figure 3) : impact to human health and safety (onsite workers and neighbouring populations), impact to environment, impact on equipment and production performance, impact on project’s financial safety and impact on schedule. For example, the risks to a recent monograph on the Japanese economy, printed on acid-free paper and of little artifactual value, would be different from the risks to a Hollywood feature film from 1956 or to the 1991 Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue.
That way, staff could assess the risk to items over the course of their life cycle—from acquisition to cataloging and from service to storage.
For example, from the four salient types of risk the Library identified, it derived four corresponding types of "safeguarding controls" that mitigate those risks to its collections.
This has allowed the Library to build a baseline assessment of risk and mitigating controls that meet the requirements of the audit process and yield critical information about the ongoing needs of the collections.
Lack of precision related to semi-quantitative approach is actually not really a problem, as the objective to provide a preliminary risk screening and mapping necessitates to think in terms of “risk area” (within criticality grid or risk map) more than in terms of “absolute risk value”. Each node of a risk scenario can be considered as an unwanted event, with an underlying risk.
Figure 1 on page 16 depicts the procedures that made up the risk assessment process. Creating and enforcing such a policy would greatly reduce the risk of theft, loss, or misplacement of Library materials. This methodology is aimed at ensuring consistency of results in any context, ensuring comparability of all types of issues and corresponding solutions, providing all necessary elements to help management board adopt a risk-optimized strategy, as well as all relevant data to communicate and defend related decisions. However it can be severely reduced by only reporting main links of the chains, minor parts being absorbed as causes or consequences of these main risks. Management has less risk tolerance for items of considerable value that cannot be replaced than for those items that can be bought in the marketplace. The degree of risk was measured by both the likelihood of occurrence and the magnitude of impact. It should certainly not be considered as a way to obtain a single one-shot picture of the project risks, which we go through at the beginning of the project before forgetting it or basing long-term strategy on it. Then, assessment can only be done through human evaluation, involving analyst’s expertise, experience and perceptions. This can be done using a risk criticality or priority matrix such as presented on figure 6. This can also serve as a base for risk mapping representation (risks likelihood and severity respectively charted on the X- and Y-axis). The scope of work included not only Alstom’s capture part but all project phases (capture, transport and storage) and had to cover all risk aspects (technical, environmental, financial, project management, permitting and regulation, political and social acceptance). But all these analysis often use very different approach, identification process, assessment and vocabulary.

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