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Subprime auto loans zero hedge,car loans through wells fargo hours,rent cost per square foot commercial building,suntrust auto loans sign on - How to DIY

Author: admin | Category: Loan Calculator Canada | Date: 03.09.2014

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Whether you're a media buyer or an individual, we have simple cost-effective web banner advertising rates and packages. We have warned of the surge in subprime auto-loan lending (and lowering standards and rising delinquencies) but this move by the DoJ should be very concerning. Auto lending remained a highly competitive product segment, as strong growth continued through the end of 2013. Across the industry, auto lenders are pursuing growth by lengthening terms, increasing advance rates, and originating loans to borrowers with lower credit scores.
However, what interests us about this development is mainly this: it shows that the credit bubble is beginning to fray at the edges. That is however never how it works – in the end, it is all one big interconnected market.
One should certainly keep both eyes open henceforth; more anecdotal evidence of this type is likely to emerge in coming months, especially if the Fed continues with its 'QE tapering' course.
Of course, the biggest irony is that it was the government itself that has been forcing GM to aggressively push NINJA loans onto any deadbeat consumer with mirror-fogging skills. Earlier this month, we gave readers a snapshot of the US auto market on the way to explaining why it was that car sales hit a 10-year high in May. Loans with terms from 74 to 84 months made up 30%  of all new vehicle financing — a record. Loans with terms from 74 to 84 months made up 16% of all used vehicle financing — a record. In other words, the same dynamic that prevailed in the US housing market prior to the collapse is at play in the auto loan market. Loans as long as seven years are increasingly being put into more bonds as auto-finance companies and Wall Street banks sell the securities at the fastest pace since 2007. The longer loans make it easier for consumers to afford rising new and used car prices by spreading out and lowering payments.
A debt offering recently marketed by American Credit Acceptance LLC demonstrates some of the risks.
While cars are lasting longer than in the past, regulators are concerned that the value of the vehicles will fall faster than borrowers can pay off the debt. The riskiest auto bonds offer compensation of up to four times the coupon of comparably dated Treasuries, Bloomberg data show. Even with the built-in protections, some market participants are starting to caution that buyers may be letting down their guard for the sake of higher yields. Auto securities sold in 2014 have registered the highest loss rate of any period since 2008, according to data from JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The takeaway here is simple: under pressure to keep the US auto sales miracle alive and feed Wall Street's securitization machine (which is itself driven by demand from yield-starved investors) along the way, lenders are lowering their underwriting standards and extending loans to underqualified borrowers. Particularly alarming is the fact that even as average loan terms hit record highs, average monthly payments are not only not falling, but are in fact also sitting at all-time highs.
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Why would anyone want to drive a new car off the lot, and instantly depreciate it more than $2000.00? 4+ years, no problems outside regular maintenance, and saved thousands compared to any other avenue.
My '92 pos is running, goes places that make butts pucker, I can work on it, and it is paid for. I get great pleasure in driving 75 mph in a vehicle whose internals have been fondled by my own hands. As a side note, today's "men" on average, have no fucking clue what goes on under the hood. Actually, if times get tough you won't be able to sell your car (the one with the underwater loan), since you would have to bring cash to the closing.
You can't say "nobody will buy this" unless you also define the price at which nobody will buy it.
The insurance route is perfectly valid from an economic point of view, but people do actually go to jail for insurance fraud.
I wouldn't do it, but when people get inovative and want  the money there are just so many ways.
In all seriousness, would anyone be willing to bring the conversation back to the old-school ZH model? My guess is more leases, until people can't even afford to lease most of what's out there, and we all know the profit at the lower end of the car spectrum is break even or, for quite a few makers, at a loss. There is not enough end user business in our area,(construction, etc) to give these trucks away in 2 years. If you find yourself in the same position as me and you're willing to try your hand at network marketing, you could use the commissions earned to acquire gold bullion from Karatbars.
OK, everything after the $1.30 in that last sentence is there for pure entertainment value, but I did have to check out at the customer service desk and received an undeniable, disparaging glare from the store manager (owner).
My take is that the new brand of "Shure-fine" salad bags which replaced the "Dole" bags are in severe oversupply and the store is wishing to unload them ASAP because they don't keep longer than a few days before spoiling.
TPP will accelerate the process of bringing American wages in line with the rest of the planet. I would bet that fuckwad, as you referred to them, had just had some fucking idiot say something like "motherfucker, don't you know WHO I AM?" or just had some asshole try and use their EBT to buy cigarillos, shots of vodka or something else verbotten. I have come to really despise the retail public, a bunch of very self important demanding rude group of people. NOTE TO READERS I am in the throes of finishing a book on the upheaval represented by the Trump candidacy and movement.
This was first time the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow closed at record highs together since 1999…WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?? Former Reagan OMB Director David Stockman talks Trump and the economy, with CNBC’s Jackie DeAngelis and the Futures Now Traders.
Anyone who believes that the global economy isn’t crashing must be delirious, according to David Stockman. Amid a cacaphony of pundit parroting about strong US auto sales — which culminated in CNBC’s now infamous “car-stock arbitrage” recommendation — we have said repeatedly that at the margin, growth is being driven (no pun intended) by lenders’ willingness to extend credit to underqualified (read: subprime) borrowers.
As we’ve pointed out on a few occasions, the appetite for Santander Consumer’s “deep” subprime DRIVE 2015-A demonstrates the extent to which the hunt for yield is once again driving Wall Street’s securitization machine which is in turn incentivizing lenders to lower their standards in order to lure more buyers. The auto ABS market continues to dominate new issue volume with 53% of the total ABS volume. In this type of environment, one would certainly hope that credit fundamentals are not deteriorating in the subprime auto space. The trend in credit performance for the non-prime auto loan sector is clearly more negative than the prime auto loan sector. With interest rates still low, buyers today rely more on financing to purchase their vehicle.
Get an original edition of David Stockman's The Great Deformation with a personal handwritten and signed message to you. Executive Order 13603 – Obama authorizes SLAVE LABOR on a large scale on American soil.
A running theme here has been the great rotation of bubble-blowing credit from subprime housing to subprime auto-loans. Of course, the real blame – as we will be told – is the weather… It seems Obama’s new American Dream of a brand new Ford or GM (or Maserati) in every driveway may be another broken promise. With interest rates rising and now clearly weighing on the housing recovery (and affordability, as we noted earlier), many look at the extreme jumps in auto sales being pumped out today and worry that higher rates will impact that credit-fueled orgasm of optimism. Borrowing costs are rising for subprime auto lenders in the asset-backed bond market, squeezing profit margins and pressuring firms to make even riskier loans.
Subprime lenders lured into the market by low financing costs during the past three years now face being pushed out as rates reverse, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
The average interest rate on a 72-month subprime loan has held at about 14 percent throughout 2013, he said.
I have been a "silent" member for the past year, and am 1,000 hours into the 10K hours of training (The last week is worth at least 500 hours!).
I have followed along with your commentary and alerts and have been flabbergasted at your quick analytical skills and your journalistic skills to explain it clearly. Phil, I'm up 34x what I paid in fees for your service, and that only counts the trades I didn't think of myself.
As a longer term trader, I really like you long term calls, as I for one recognize the difficulty of calling these, because the further out you go in time, projecting price movement becomes more difficult. Scaling, Scaling, and Scaling… then patience, patience, patience I'm 2 to 1 short and even on a day the broad market is up I had my largest one day gain in years.
I read with great interest your statement the other day that the DX is unlikely to break 76 or there will be great hell to pay, torrential amounts of tears shed, and gnashing of dentures all over the world. Very nice in and out on those USO puts again, easy way to get the subscription covered in just a couple of hours.


Thanks again Phil and everyone here contributing to such intelligent and informative discussion! I'm just starting my second year as a member, and I'd like to thank all of you for sharing your trading ideas and insight, and especially Phil of course for great all-around investing advice as well as trades!
Phil: I have 263 positions - 70% in options ( balance stocks) in three portfolios with a value of 3 mil. I cannot believe the success I have had in the last 6 months because of what I have learned here! I like the combo of knowing where the major levels are coupled with your approach to getting in. I have been reading the "free" PSW for about a year and have always liked Phil's style as it closely resembled the way I like to trade (mostly naked put options). Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! I have been a member of Phil's site for three years and counting, and my advice is that all investing takes time. I started with $250,000 in cash as of Oct 1 and have realized gains of $81,000 thru close of business.
I have learned more about options in the past 2 weeks as a full PSW member that the previous 5 yrs of making more bad than good option plays.
Phil: I am always able to figure out your trades, including the rational when put in the right context of previous comments, etc.
Phil - I know I am small change compared to most others members, but I just wanted to let you know that during the last two weeks with the shorts you and others suggested I have 6 winners and 5 losers. As a retired stockbroker from a major Canadian brokerage firm, I can tell you I would never had access to these type of trade ideas, especially the hedges. Phil you are great, and not only is your market info spot on but you have the courage to call it like it is and write about it in a great tone. Thanks, after years of blood and blunders, I have reached a significant milestone – I don't lose money.
A few months ago (April) I didn?t even know what hedging was, and someone recommended I should check out some of Phil?s plays, especially on the retirement portfolio. While Citi and others are quick to point out that the originate to sell model isn’t prevalent in the auto loan industry, the inability for lenders to securitize subprime loans may well put the brakes on US auto sales.
As you can see, and as we noted last week, the share has remained range-bound for at least 15 years. Remember, somebody owns this paper and they sure as hell won’t be buying into any more deep subprime deals if the collateral pools continue to perform like that. You must be logged in to make a comment.You can sign up for a membership or get a FREE Daily News membership or log inSign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Rest of the account is there to day trade, cover the writes and take advantage of opportunities. New members – a word of advice: you should check out the track record of Phil's last few trades of the year, and what the return would be if you just rolled all the gains into the next years trade of the year. Thanks Phil, I have adjusted my position by getting rid of the IYF puts, and selling the FAZ puts.
I have been with this site since the beginning and i have learned more the past 3 years than the previous 10. Phil, You were on the $ today with your calls almost exactly on the turns – Krap kuhn krup (Thai for thank you very much). This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument.
We don't shy away from controversy, and will publish anything that interests us and matches our focus for the site.
Banks continue to hold a sizable market share of outstanding loans of $250 billion, or 31 percent of the total auto lending market.
Loan marketing has become increasingly monthly-payment driven, with loan terms and LTV advance rates easing to make financing more broadly available. Every downturn starts with a seemingly innocuous report about things 'suddenly' and 'unexpectedly' going wrong in a relatively obscure corner of the market. Once problems become visible in one obscure corner of the low grade credit markets, it is often a warning sign for the entire market and economy.
While that's all well and good, there's every indication that those figures are likely to deteriorate significantly going forward.
Lenders are competing for borrowers as lucrative securitization fees beckon, and this competition is directly responsible for loose underwriting standards.
While the securities are attracting plenty of buyers with high loss buffers and AAA ratings, some investors are beginning to question the wisdom of lending at terms that have never before extended beyond five years. About one-third of the 14,628 loans in the deal are tied to borrowers with credit ratings under 500 according to the Fair Issac Corp. Since 2004, S&P has upgraded 371 classes of subprime auto deals and downgraded none, data from the company show. Exeter Finance Corp., a Blackstone Group-backed subprime lending firm based in Irving, Texas, isn’t offering them because the risk is too high, said the firm’s treasurer, Andrew Kang. That would be the era before the invasion of the new generation of member who revel in Yellen cursing and shallow snarky venting, when we used to maintain high intellectual discourse. In hindsight, the housing collapse went down somewhat predictably- with bank bailouts, chain mail and quasi-permanent squatters enjoying bank's obsession with avoiding mark-tomarket and keeping bad loans off the books. Currently 213K on the clock, running strong, had one big repair which was done before I bought it (transmission). Near our local " car store area" ( every town has one or two), there is an old building with a big fenced lot that has been vacant for years. Its not for everybody and I'm not pushing it on anyone it's just another option for you guys.
Sign said, "Buy 1 get 2 free." Since I am single, and camping for the summer, one bag is all I needed and the other two would likely go bad within days. Ended up buying one bag for $1.30, but, but, I had to sign a non-disclosure statement and produce my driver's license. Trouble is, we're deep in farm country here and every other house has a garden and probably are producing more than enough of their own lettuce and vegetables.
We are in year six or eight of a 15-18-year depression and it's likely to get worse before it gets better. Cops, politicians, bankers and schoolteachers will be wealthy in coming years, but as many begin to retire, the defaults on pensions will also accelerate. The former director of the Office of Management and Budget argues that a rapidly deteriorating economic environment is going to send stocks and oil prices spiraling even lower than they already have. This was later confirmed by Goldman in a note which pointed out that subprime loans accounted for more than a fifth of all US new vehicle sales in January, which is 500bps above the post-crisis norm of 16%. Prime auto loan ABS represents the largest sub-sector with 32% of auto ABS volume and 17% of total ABS volume. The 30+ days delinquency and net loss rates for the non-prime sector continues to trend up, while the same for the prime sector have been relatively stable. According to Experian Automotive, in Q4 2014 84% of new vehicles and 55% of used vehicles were financed via lease or loan.
Funding costs are climbing as the Federal Reserve considers reducing $85 billion of monthly bond purchases that have steered investors to riskier, higher-yielding debt. If funding costs continue to climb along with interest rates, the company will adjust its pricing, he said. Made lots of mistakes and misunderstood quite a few of Phil's calls, … some actually made money when reversed. In a little over three weeks I have cleared almost 1000.00 dollars and got an intensive education at the same time.
So far it has been a good ride with my PSW all short put portfolio showing a 15.73% gain with $83K in profits harvested in 2015. You called the March 2009 market upward reversal almost to the day, and the AAPL reversal to THE day. Because of you I don't chase, don't worry about missed chances, and play things much more selectively. I have wasted countless hours reading "professional newsletters" and message board blather over the years.
I have been a paid subscriber for about 5 weeks and I have been learning a lot from Phil and other members. Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments.
Before I came here I loved to try to "figure things out" with very little success "TRYING TO FIGURE THINGS OUT"! Sold on initial excitement and made a double on USO, 70% on AMZN and 70% on SPY options from Friday. The edition of February 26 'Which Way Wednesday – Popping or Topping?', – priceless for the serious investor. When I first started to read it, none of it made a blind bit of sense to me, but I stuck with it and gradually began to work through some of the trades to see how it worked.


It is hard to be a complete beginner in the market with this complicated, fast moving, and very advanced group. But again, the question is what happens to auto sales if lenders can no longer expand the pool of eligible borrowers by relaxing their standards? Exhibit 6, for example, shows the losses on three large 2015 vintage deep subprime deals vs. Two years ago I'd wake up early and my heart would race if futures weren't pointing exactly how I wanted… I've noticed an exponential leap in my discipline skills especially over this past two weeks.
Davis' market analyses and reports about his super profitable trades I feel admiration mixed with envy for the overall brilliance of this man, intellectual and verbal, his extraordinary savvy in the exotic art of options and, last not least, his moral passion with which he writes, even if in passing, about the darker aspects of capitalism. I glanced one time and they were already up 15% which is considered a good return for an overnight hold in most circles.
You never cease to amaze me with your thoughtful perspective on a myriad of different issues and challenges. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information.
Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. The results have yet to show large-scale deterioration at the portfolio level, but signs of increasing risk are evident. We find ourselves reminded of how sub-prime real estate credit troubles began to show up for the first time in February of 2007, leading to the often repeated mantra that this particular disturbance in the force was 'well contained'. Submit your article contributions and participate in the world's largest independent online news community today! All I can do is testify that its working for me - There is no reason why we can't make it work for all of us.. Additionally, I was banned from ever shopping in the store ever again upon threat of death or incarceration. My next purchase will be at $12, then maybe $6, when the bottom falls completely out of the oversupplied commodity market. Loans with terms from 74 to 84 months made up 30%  of all new vehicle financing — a record. Furthermore, as of January, the percentage of new vehicle sales attributable to subprime loans had been running ahead of the post-crisis average for 7 straight months. Even though net losses for non-prime loans are below normalized levels and employment situation continues to improve, the trends in 30+days delinquency and net loss rates argues for tighter lending standards in the sector.
This compares to 2009 when 74% and 46% of new and used vehicles, respectively, were financed.
The chat (Including the politics) is very engaging (Many great minds with international coverage), and a great companion, while nursing a trade gone wrong, through the night.
Second is how very helpful it is to see the different trading styles we have, partly because of personal preference and partly because of different stages of development and education. Only one who has been a student of the economy and the markets over a period of time could have done this, and so many other accurate calls.
I really feel I've learned to use some tools that will enable me to deal with the turbulence ahead. Perhaps even better, you get access to real-time trades of additional traders on his site (OptTrader, etc) and the other members who post what they are buying and selling. It's like the old adage about teaching someone how to fish instead of just giving them a fish. I had made some money on Phil's "free" ideas in the past and I joined because one of Phil's futures ideas paid for my subscription within the same day (NG).
We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!Click here to see some testimonials from our members! I traded too much and fell in love with stocks that "should have done" what they didn't do. Now I am putting on 5:1 SPY backspreads combined with bear put spreads, entering and leaving positions after consulting the VIX, and engaging in other esoteric maneuvers that are keeping my portfolio above water. More auto loan originations are going to borrowers with shoddy credit and loan terms are looking more and more stretched by the quarter. That means that at a certain point, incremental sales must be engineered by making ineligible borrowers eligible by resorting to looser underwriting. That would likely occur if subprime and deep suprime start to underperform, leading investors to pull back from paper backed by loans to less creditworthy borrowers.
A majority of the trades were taken directly from your ideas or someone else`s contributions. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. Average LTV rates for both new and used vehicles are above 100 percent for all major lender categories, reflecting rising car prices and a greater bundling of add-on products such as extended warranties, credit life insurance, and aftermarket accessories into the financing (see figure 26). The company is charging interest rates of between 27 and 28 percent for almost one-third of the borrowers, and more than half of its loans exceed five years.
Based on normalized levels we expect to see net losses increase by another 50bp in the prime auto loan market and 110bp in the nonprime auto loan market. Your hit rate of successful trades has been very high in my 1.5 months as a member, but even more importantly is your teaching of how to repair and DD positions that haven't gone your way yet. Now I know that there are ALWAYS more trades and that I have PLENTY of options to turn a bad trade even.
Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision.
Phil has allowed me to really ramp up the savings we put away for our children's college funds and our retirement. I just did a quick tally and within the last 5 weeks the ideas that I chose to follow from Phil generated over 25K in options profits and 12K in futures profits (some of my trades were more conservative than what Phil's had suggested). I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! As with most members, we all have our ‘pet' trading interests, and learning how to think about trading is much more important than a specific trade, which could see the conditions behind it change an hour later. No lender wants to be sitting on a book full of used car loans to deep subprime borrowers with sub-600 FICOs, and so, if demand for subprime auto ABS dries up, so too will credit to the subset of borrowers who are driving (no pun intended) incremental sales growth.
Works been keeping me pretty busy and I'm jealous of all the members who are able to check in here more often! Also, it's more logical and less emotionally draining which lets me focus my faculties on my wife, college, my job, and studying for the ol' Series 7. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies.
USAA's black-box valuation formula offered them 60% of the value of the car, and essentially beat them up for declining "gap insurance." Part of me thinks that holds a hint of what's coming. Put simply, those subprime borrowers are getting subprimey-er.  In other words, the same dynamic that prevailed in the US housing market prior to the collapse is at play in the auto loan market.
I did not renew my membership because I switched jobs and did not have time to trade nearly as much.
This is the classic case, of ‘Teach us to Fish', rather than just giving us a fish once in a while. Would it be safe to say that one of the most important skills to develop is the ability to adjust? Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around. I have found Phil's system a more discipline way to achieve the returns I want without relying on my ability (more like inability to "figure things out"). I'd love to get to the point where I can look at a bracket and know, for example, what I need to sell for cover in what month in order to get my desired results. With rates at near-zero and the lending machine at full speed, when flipping these underwater morons into never-ending, serf-like new loans hits it's wall, and people not only can't borrow- but wont borrow, at any rate- what fills the void (like multi-family renting does for housing?) Will it be public transportation? We have not seen this cycle come through yet.”   A debt offering recently marketed by American Credit Acceptance LLC demonstrates some of the risks. Will this industry experience the same revolution that will follow the student loan explosion?



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