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Author: admin | Category: Auto Rate Calculator | Date: 14.03.2016

As we have pointed out on occasion of last week’s economic data update, we tend to focus on the manufacturing sector for a number of reasons.
Our friend Michael Pollaro has mailed us two more charts pointing to growing weakness in the sector which we are reproducing below. The first chart depicts the change in national ISM new manufacturing orders compared to the percentage change of the dollar value of core new factory orders according to US census data lagged by 6 months (for all manufacturing and manufacturing ex aircraft). As can be seen, normally the 6 months lagged change in the dollar value of core factory orders is aligned quite well with the ISM new order index (meaning, the latter is usually leading by about 4 to 6 months), but not this time. Of course, the actual dollar value is what these new orders are worth to manufacturers in money terms. This particular credit bubble is much smaller than the mortgage credit bubble was (with the combined value of owned and securitized car loans amounting to around $1 trillion), but in a sense it is also more dangerous for creditors, as the underlying collateral promises very little by way of recovery in the event of a big surge in defaults (traditionally the LTV of loans for used car is oscillating around 100% and for new cars around 90%).
A slightly dated chart of the growth in sub-prime auto lending, with an appropriate ad – click to enlarge.
The last time a similar dip came into view, the Fed immediately launched more QE, thereby postponing a downturn and allowing more capital malinvestment to pile up – this time, the Fed is fantasizing about rate hikes. What happens is rather that market rates on the short end are driven by growing speculative credit demand, inflation expectations as well as market anticipation of future Fed policy moves.
One only has to look at the most recent moves in short term rates, which were first driven up by expectations about a September rate hike, and then plunged after no such rate hike was announced and the useless “dot plot” showed one FOMC member moving his expected federal funds rate dot into negative territory (the culprit not surprisingly was Narayana Havenstein – whose views we have previously discussed here and here). Anyway, at the beginning of a boom, the Fed pumps, either by lowering its policy rates (thus inducing banks to offer credit at lower rates) or as has been the case since 2008, by actively “printing” money in addition to this. The annual rate of change of the sum of charge-offs and delinquencies of industrial and commercial loans (black line) compared to the effective federal funds rate (red line) – click to enlarge.
As you can see, there has been a strong correlation between emerging loan defaults and the federal funds rate in the past, as one would expect, as economic busts usually emerge in the wake of an increase in interest rates.
This indicates to us that since 2008, boom conditions require regular doses of QE to continue, and that the current rate of monetary inflation (a still hefty 8.35% as of the end of September) may not be sufficient to keep all bubble activities in the economy on artificial life support. This in turn would jibe with our recent observation that the economy’s pool of real savings is likely in severe trouble.
Apparently some Keynesian dunderhead once again asserted that people are “saving too much” – ironically on the same day when another headline informed readers that “most Americans have less than $1,000 in savings”. Meanwhile, if we are interpreting the implications of recent developments in credit-land correctly, it would indicate that central bank policy is going to continue to remain much looser for much longer than most people currently assume – with all that implies.
I tutor a few economists on the basis of some changing conditions that are not mainstream at this juncture.
This is exactly where 21st century tools lend their hand in being able to create a monetization and distribution of gold based currency that is denominated by its mass. This is just another way of looking at the benefit of debt-free liquidity as an addition to existing debt based liquidity in the formation of a liquidity yin-yang where the market can govern by way of market osmosis. When we can increase liquidity while reducing outstanding debt at the same time, that’s a unique progress ! Capital consumption explains why capital investment is anemic, real wage rates are slipping and unemployment is stubbornly high. Yes, and therein lies the problem: The capital consuming boom has a sort of instant gratification effect.
The bust will come, but because average Joe is convinced that current policy works, he applauds the central bank’s effort to get him out of the bust.
The relationship is destined for symbiosis, but consistent with creation, it is light that comes out of darkness in its rightful order. Having said the above, these useful price measures that have metamorphosed from their currency apprenticeship into tools of price comparison are absolutely necessary in the support of debt-free trading.
Something is amiss in manufacturing , as well as other areas of the real economy, because something is a amiss within the landscape of liquidity. We need to stir in some asset based liquidity to work toward a balance in the total liquidity model. Most of the liquidity today is debt-based, and not asset-based, for a clever reason: it is purposely designed like that in order to generate a perpetual yield stream to the issuers. Hoping for asset-based liquidity may be wishful thinking, as the money powers are not likely to voluntarily relinquish, or even merely reduce, their monopolistic choke-hold over the world economy! However, the downside of debt-based liquidity is that it eventually degenerates into an unwieldy Ponzi which eventually will have its Minsky moment.
Back in February, we brought you an update on the truly insane real estate bubble in Australia (see: “Australia's Housing Bubble – In the Grip of Insanity” for details) in the wake of Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception reporting on an eye-opening fact-finding tour in Sydney. Claudio Grass, Global Gold: Ronald, it is a pleasure to have the opportunity to speak with you. A mass e-mail has been making the rounds lately, and it is quite possible that many of our readers have already seen this. This morning the punters in the casino were cheered up by yet another strong payrolls report, the second in a row. In the past few months, we have witnessed a series of defining events in modern political history, with Britain’s vote to exit the EU, (several) terror attacks in France and Germany, as well as the recent attempted military coup in Europe’s backyard, Turkey.

For reasons we cannot even begin to fathom, Mark Carney is considered a “superstar” among central bankers. OUZILLY, France – Both our daughters have now arrived at our place in the French countryside. Bond markets are certainly displaying a lot of enthusiasm at the moment – and it doesn't matter which bonds one looks at, as the famous “hunt for yield” continues to obliterate interest returns across the board like a steamroller. Either we’re doing something wrong or we’ve got the most criminal population on the planet. REAM MORE A»Financing - Options-Regardless Of Your Score.Special Finance Lender List by State For a complete list of subprime auto lenders available in your state, choose your state below. REAM MORE A»Lender List SubprimeSubprime lending is reserved for borrowers who are unable to qualify for mortgages at traditional banks.
REAM MORE A»Sub Prime Auto Lenders, Special Finance Auto Lender ListOptions-Regardless Of Your Score.
Direct Installment Lender Instant Approval,Same day payday advances online,How to get student loans with bad credit. The taxi-hailing service defended itself Wednesday against accusations that its auto-loan program is facilitating risky loans that drivers may struggle to pay off.
The loan program was highlighted Tuesday by tech blog Valleywag, which noted that Uber has been pitching the program specifically to borrowers with poor credit. Santander declined to comment, while GM did not immediately respond to requests for comment. For a company that bills itself as a “different car buying experience” with no dealer fees and no haggling, the loan figures prove the Off Lease Only business model is working for car buyers with all types of credit. Off Lease Only General Manager John Giasullo said the company’s spiraling success is rooted in a deep dedication to customer service, a mindset that literally costs Fischer millions of dollars a month but pays off in the end. Customer reviews posted on third-party review sites are filled with praise about everything from off Lease Only’s customer service and price to selection.  Thousands of happy customers have also voluntarily taped video testimonials about car shopping at Off Lease Only. It is reviews like that which have vaulted Off Lease Only to the top of the used car industry. Stop in to one of Off Lease Only four locations and drive home your next beautiful used car today! Hence, history is destined to repeat itself, and this might occur a lot faster than most anticipate. Meanwhile, another hat tip is due to our friend BC, who has pointed out a recent development to us we were actually unaware of and that we show below as well. As Michael remarked to us, the ISM data may be skewed by survivor bias in the current cycle. Given that (largely debt-financed) capex by the energy sector was a major factor in the recovery, we are now witnessing the effect of its ongoing demise. This industry is a beneficiary of the large domestic market, low interest rates and lower gas prices, but there are two caveats: for one thing, there may be some “channel stuffing” going on, as dealer inventories have been growing for several years. Usually interest rate markets are in an observer-participant feedback loop with Federal Reserve policy.
When at some later stage price pressures emerge, it attempts to “cool the economy down” by hiking its administered interest rates. Recently, the change rate of the sum of industrial loan charge-offs and delinquencies has however moved into positive territory with the Federal Funds rate firmly stuck close to zero. Speaking of savings, we want to point readers to an excellent recent post by Mish on the topic of savings, which inter alia quotes Dr.
Of course there cannot be such a thing as “too much savings”, and proponents of the so-called “savings glut” theory (such as former Fed chief Bernanke) are confusing numbers piling up in accounts due to massive money printing with savings, which is an error of monumental proportions. Primarily it implies a persistent zombification of the economy a la Japan, occasionally interrupted by downturns of steadily increasing severity.
Give us a little hand in offsetting the costs of running this blog, as advertising revenue alone is insufficient. Mass is limited and finite but as long as its worth is variable by the marketplace , liquidity is fully scalable and when applied properly , that boom-bust cycle can be reduced in amplitude over time and eventually eliminated.
The consumption of capital is caused by monetary inflation, plus the tightening web of regulations, plus government spending that wastes what could be used in private production. They are counting on a shift toward balance which can only be trusted to a healthy yin-yang of market liquidity, thanks to the market addition of assets-in-circulation. For those who haven't, we wanted to share this moment of hilarity provided to us by Deep State candidate Hillary Clinton. Leaving aside the fact that it will be revised out of all recognition when all is said and done, does it actually mean the economy is strong? Next to us was a German family – a man about our age with his daughter and his two grandsons, about 9 and 10 years old. Presumably this was one of the reasons why the British government helped him to execute a well-timed exit from the Bank of Canada by hiring him to head the Bank of England (well-timed because he disappeared from Canada with its bubble economy seemingly still intact, leaving his successor to take the blame).
This is what children look like approximately five minutes into a rant on the Fed's policy mistakes.

The price of silver was up almost seventy cents.  Last week, a reader reminded us that in the long run the dollar is going to zero. Corporate and government debt have been soaring for years, but investor appetite for such debt has evidently grown even more.
In recent months, federal regulators have reportedly been investigating subprime auto lenders amid concerns about onerous rates and a potential bubble in the sector. The company has faced repeated protests from drivers over its fare policies, and has tangled with regulators in a number of cities as it aggressively expands.
1 dealer nationally for the issuance of prime and subprime auto loans, outranking 16,000 other dealers across the country. The finance manager was attentive and compassionate, he listened to my needs and found the plan that was just right for my needs,” the customer wrote. We are proud to have four used car dealerships throughout the State making it even more convenient for our customers to save thousands on their next pre-owned car. Nearly 100,000 happy customers have chosen to save thousands by purchasing their used cars from Off Lease Only, and you should too! As you will see, we can actually observe a few oddities in the current cycle, which were not in evidence in previous cycles. We would argue that apart from survivor bias, there may also be a flaw in the seasonal adjustments to ISM data due to the large swings of the 2007-2009 recession (this is just a hunch).
Secondly, car sales seem extremely dependent on the expansion of the sub-prime car loan bubble.
It is very difficult to argue that such a vast addition to the money supply isn’t going to affect gross market rates. Assorted capital malinvestments then tend to be revealed as unprofitable, leading to rising defaults, the liquidation of malinvested capital and the emergence of recessions. Frank Shostak extensively, who is a well-known modern-day proponent of the subsistence fund theory (we would also point readers to Richard von Strigl’s book Capital and Production in this context). Reduced productive expenditure leads to declining manufacturing, as we’ve seen recently in certain sectors such as exporters and oil.
Not only does the healthy formation save the economy, it also allows for debt to be reeled in and saves the fiat currency system from collapse. It’s also taken heat for sending thousands of fake ride requests to rival car-hailing service Lyft. Off Lease Only’s auto loan accounts with Capital One went from zero to the highest in the nation in three years, Rizzo added.  Off Lease Only had been ranked No.
5 independent used car dealer in the nation by Auto Remarketing magazine, a trade publication for the used car industry.
With locations in Miami, Palm Beach, Lake Worth and Orlando, you have thousands of used cars for sale all priced thousands below retail. Eugene Fama from the “rational expectations” school, have concluded that it has no control over interest rates at all, but as every market observer well knows, this isn’t entirely true.
Those of you who have made a ton of money based on some of the things we have said in these pages (we actually made a few good calls lately!), please feel free to up your donations accordingly (we are sorry if you have followed one of our bad calls. Read OffLeaseOnly reviews and watch Off Lease Only customer testimonial videos to see what sets Off Lease Only apart from every other used car dealer in the Nation.
Thanks to the proliferation of auto lending by the big manufacturers, which have topped $1 trillion, the U.S. Other than that, we can only repeat that donations to this site are apt to secure many benefits. These range from sound sleep, to children including you in their songs, to the potential of obtaining privileges in the afterlife (the latter cannot be guaranteed, but it seems highly likely). Rate of change is critical in this morphing and should serve to tell you why such a massive change cannot be top-down and MUST be bottom-up by way of market consciousness.
As always, we are greatly honored by your readership and hope that our special mixture of entertainment and education is adding a little value to your life!
Another positive: Banks are also much stronger now than they were eight years ago.Did you like this article? Next step will be to lower rates, with the ultimate Goal of pushing them into negative territory.Implications of Lower and or negative ratesLower rates mean more hot money will flow into the markets and companies will borrow even larger sums to buy back their shares, to further enhance the illusion that all is well.
Additionally, it will push more and more individuals who are on a fixed income into speculating. When President Jakowi came to power in Indonesia in 2013, the rupiah dropped to 11,500, and everyone assumed that it would remain strong.

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