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Author: admin | Category: Calculateur De Pret Auto | Date: 24.11.2015

In  the  current  environment,  rising  long-term  interest  rates  is  generally  a  positive  for banks. Loans that price off short-term rates include most commercial, home equity, and credit card.
Despite  increasing  competition  for  commercial  loans,  spreads  (at  280bps  above  Fed  Funds)  remain  well  above  their  25  year  average  (of  210bps)  and recent low in 1Q07 (180bps) as short-term rates have declined meaningfully. Higher rates at a measured pace are generally a positive for banks, given the uplift to asset  yields,  deposit  margins,  along  with  generally  improving  macro  conditions. Deposit  pricing  remains  an  important  tool  that  banks  use  to  manage  net  interest margins because deposits are usually a bank’s biggest cost of funding (in dollar terms). Banks have been reducing their reliance on wholesale funding by running off long-term debt, which has declined meaningfully as a percent of total assets—down to 9 percent vs.
Take a look at the chart below provided by Freddie Mac showing the average interest rates over the years. I am providing the information that Indian Bank has announced new interest rates on fix deposit.


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Higher long rates allow banks to deploy these assets into higher yielding areas—boosting NIMs.
As a rule of thumb, we estimate the first 100bp boost in long rates adds 15-20bps to net interest margins (usually over 3 years). Over  time,  there’s  been  a  strong  relationship  between  loan  yields  and  the  Fed  funds rate  (94 percent  correlation),  and  to  a  lesser  extent  with  10-year  Treasury  rates  (87 percent correlation).
However, if competition  continues  to  increase  in  commercial,  we  could  see  smaller  C&I  spreads.
If priced incorrectly,  a  bank’s  deposit  base  could  shrink,  which  reduces  its  ability  make  loans and  other  investments.  How  soon  and  how  much  a  bank  reprices  its  deposits  varies depending  on  each  bank’s  strategy,  deposit  base,  and  asset-liability  position. The shift away from wholesale funding and towards deposit funding is a positive when rates are low.


Separately,  narrower  mortgage  spreads  are  about  in-line  with  historical  levels—although with tighter underwriting standards. However, over time, as rates rise, banks may have to issue debt and longer dated CDs to lock in funding costs (and in the case of long term debt, for regulatory reasons). Lastly, spreads for credit card and auto loans have been under pressure, but remain above historical levels.
But low interest rates are nothing new for business managers here, meaning it will take more than a slight decline to stoke demand for funding."Companies' lack of confidence in the economic outlook is the largest factor inhibiting investment growth," a megabank chief said. Businesses are reluctant to take risks when unforeseen developments overseas could punish them for it.Others say companies could be waiting to take out loans in the expectation that the BOJ will take its policy rate even further below zero.



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