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Author: admin | Category: Calculatrice Pret Auto | Date: 03.07.2015

For those who argue that businesses today could not cope with 4% to 6% interest rates, they would expect multiple contraction. The charts have linear regression trend lines applied, but the fit (R-squared value) is weak.
We will look at forward earnings and dividend yield versus interest rates in subsequent posts.
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Always question e-mails and opportunities that seem too good to be true, because they almost always are. Variations of this scam have been around in snail mail form since the 1920s, but they have only become more advanced as technology has grown. This scam is particularly despicable because it victimizes those who have already been victimized. A recent spin has the scammers pretending to be legitimate companies such as Google, Microsoft, or a security company, telling you they’ve remotely caught a virus.
Contact the supposed funeral service if the e-mail looks suspicious, to confirm the funeral.
The price of oil passed another milestone last week, falling below $50 a barrel, a level that I had not expected to see again in my lifetime.
It’s interesting that we crossed another milestone last week, with the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds falling below 2%.
A month ago I provided some simple analysis of the connection between these developments in the form of a regression of the weekly change in the natural logarithm of the price of WTI on the weekly log changes in dollar price of copper and trade-weighted value of the dollar along with the weekly change in the yield on 10-year Treasuries.
Last month I used that regression to ask how much of the decline in oil prices between July 1 and December 12 of last year could be predicted statistically by the changes in copper prices, bond yields and value of the dollar.
That is, of the $55 drop in the price of oil since the start of July, about $24, or 44%, seems attributable to broader demand factors rather than anything specific happening to the oil market.
Should there be an understandable relationship between the price of Brent and the monthly deficit or surplus of world supply compared to demand for petroleum? US oil consumption is up 820 kbpd in December; Europe is on track for 4% demand growth in mid year.
That would be a tragedy for China, but Chinese governance is historically more marked by a closed, backward-looking attitude than one of engagement. I will not be surprised to see the new generation of PLA generals assert more political power during a period of worsening internal conditions ahead. I think the other commodities are a similar story to oil, with a fair amount of new supply coming on and not finding enough demand growth. In advanced economies, I think this is mainly a case of well established structural downshifts in demand growth once again refusing to bow to perennially optimistic expectations of a rebound.
In China and some other EMs, I think this is a cyclical pullback from unsustainable credit expansion.
I follow the IEA data, and what it has been showing is some slowdown in oil consumption growth and a sharp reduction in 2015 consumption forecasts since June.
I think the Saudis have complete discretion in setting the price up to $80 Brent without too much difficulty. Steven, once the shale sector bust is well underway and the effects pass through to the ancillary sectors, including energy-related transportation, US oil consumption is likely to fall significantly in proportion to the decline in US shale production and transport. The increase in subprime auto loan delinquencies and defaults began a year ago and is accelerating into year end 2014, which will eventually hit vehicle sales for the cycle. We should begin to see the effects of the energy and subprime auto credit busts on shale production, housing, autos, and goods orders, IP, and real GDP by the tougher comparisons beginning in Q2, including CPI decelerating below 1% to perhaps negative at some point hereafter. The cyclical low for jobless claims to payrolls suggests that employment is peaking and the U rate bottoming, which further suggests that the layoffs now beginning in the energy and related sectors will contribute to the peak in employment and bottoming of claims and the U rate in 2015.
Vietnam, doing nothing but enjoying oil prices will fall, will see GDP rise by 3 percentage points.
Jason, the pullback in FDI by US (and Japanese other other) supranational firms in China-Asia and elsewhere was predictable and telling, as global trade is decelerating to a crawl and now capital, credit, and trade flows have reached parity with GDP PPP between the three major trading blocs. By using copper, interest rates, and a rising dollar you are actually using the same parameters in different forms. At the end of the 1990s the dollar climbed around 20% and the price of oil fell to the production cost. My perception is that the world is experiencing OPEC (Saudi) predatory pricing with the intention of crippling U.S.
I’ve long used the real oil imports in the monthly trade data published by Census as a measure of the marginal demand for oil. From a world demand for oil perspective this is clearly the variable to watch, not US production. Marginal cost of production in KSA according to Jim’s recent very informative graph are below $40, so they can increase production and make money at $40, but reportedly would prefer to see above $45.
I have spent serious time in KSA, and anybody who says what they do or do not do does not know what he is talking about. Of course, I have violated my own dictum about saying what the Saudis will do or not do, although my statements about their oil price expectations for their budgeting process are based on public statements from them. The comments from the prince mirror ones by Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister who said $100 oil may be a thing of the past in December. I know you are still learning so I will be king when I point out that oil is primarily quoted and traded in dollars. The moral to the story: Get the experts and government out of the way and we will have a robust recovery and people might even stop leaving the workforce. It has the effect of predatory pricing by creating an oversupply situation which drives prices down so that competition (U.S. I doubt the public wants to hear about trigger strategies in a non-cooperative game theoretic Cournot model.


So, for about 8 hours the price of oil fell below $45 within the last 24, hitting a low of about $44, but is now back up to $47.
If, and I reiterate if the Paris attacks on Charlie Hebdo and others increase the western country fear premium, then that could conceivably negatively impact expectations of global aggregate demand growth.
Barkley Rosser: No disagreement on XL from a US perspective but would simply point out that the Keystone XL delay has huge significance for Canada and the global environmental movement.
For a massive welfare state like that of the USA, a few billion here and a few billion there does not matter. In the background, Americans continue to pay the lowest excise taxes on dirty fuels among the rich OECD countries which suggests that the cheap energy entitlement is alive and well in the USA. Success in holding up Keystone has likely encouraged Canadian activists to hold up Northern Gateway pipeline and the Transmountain pipeline expansion in British Columbia. On the contrary, economists tend to understand logarithmic transformations and percentage calculations better than anybody else. As regular readers know, at the beginning of every month, I check in with some financial reporting.
This compensation may impact how and where products appear on this site (including, for example, the order in which they appear). Opinions expressed here are author’s alone, not those of the bank advertiser, and have not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by the bank advertiser. Copy the code in this field and paste it to your blog in order to create a link to this page. These people will go to great lengths to con a poor, unsuspecting samaritan into giving up their pertinent information, identity, details, or bank account numbers. The first step on this list is always this: Do not respond to unsolicited e-mail, and do not click on any embedded links within those e-mails. You would think everyone would know about this scam in 2014, and that nobody would fall for it, but you’d be wrong.
A wealthy Nigerian family or a widowed African woman is trying to get money out of the country. These scams promise to refund and recover money already lost to schemes (such as the Nigerian Wealth scam). They say they’ll issue refunds if you provide bank information for the direct-deposit reimbursement. Malware crusaders steal the names of legitimate funeral homes, send invitation notices to an unnamed friend or relative’s memorial service, with an attached link to celebrate the friend’s life. I attribute sinking yields to ongoing weakening of the global economy, particularly Europe.
I found that the regression would predict a $20 decline in the price of oil over that period. That’s almost the same percentage as when I performed the calculation using data that we had available a month ago. It is the last thirty year period which is anomalous, not the sort of authoritarian steps we’re seeing now. Global, regional, and internal events are converging to suggest that history will rhyme yet again in the years ahead.
At the link below, just for you, is my US oil consumption forecast through 2018, product by product.
That has especially been the case in Europe and Japan, but even the US for all the booyahs over noisy quarterly numbers has only mildly accelerated to about 2.5% a year. At the same time, in China, authoritarian economic policy is exhausting its ability to identify obvious catch-up investments. Through September that mainly reflected the disappointed expectations of turnaround in Europe and Japan and the slowdown in China. As long as the price remains below marginal cost, the Saudis can cut production to raise the price and and retain the opportunity to re-inject those quantities later. It’s a question of whether that would be sustainable, or if it would just inspire too much production, a new glut and another decision for the Saudis between cutting their output even further or letting the price fall. The TBTE banks are also on the hook for lots of C&I loans to the energy sector this time around. That’s already a month old, but they were already assuming a $49 WTI average for the first half of 2015. I live in Taiwan, and right around the time that QE ended and the commodity prices started dropping, I noticed all the neon lights missing half their bulbs. Now that FDI is slowing or contracting and trade growth is largely over, China-Asia will be increasingly vulnerable to credit and liquidity crises, debt, asset, and price deflation, and a dramatic deceleration of growth of real GDP per capita. I have calculated that the impact of just the rising dollar accounts for about $30 of the $55 dollar decline or about 54%.
Marginal producers went out of business and in the 2000s when production recovered there was a huge oil shortage causing the price of oil to shoot up rapidly as oil producers struggled to keep up with demand. But the political connection of the Saudis and the US Government, plus military bases, you have not mentioned. But a temporary drop to $40 might really be useful for clearing out the peripheral producers around the world. They do seem to have the range of $45-$50 per barrel in mind, whether or not they can manage to keep it in that range for any period of time by any actions of theirs.
But on a global basis, there is little that can be done to prevent price whiplashing in the future. For smaller Canada, the deep discounts faced by western Canadian oil producers due to insufficient infrastructure are significant.
Oil sector proponents have complained long and hard about the amount of US money funding local opposition.
Some of them even understand growth theory and may even view China as the tail that is wagged rather than the tail that wags the dog.


He has been blogging and writing for the internet since 1995 and has been building online communities since 1991.
I addressed that question this morning in my income statement, but it basically comes down to side business income. Rates and offers from advertisers shown on this website may change without notice; please visit referenced sites for current information. As long as people are falling for these too-good-to-be-true opportunities, the prevalence of these scams will only increase. The scammers create phony recovery programs to restore a victim’s lost money, but first you must pay an up-front fee. The invitation appears authentic at first glance, but the danger is in the attached link, typically downloading malware to your computer rather than redirecting you to a funeral service site. And ask yourself: Do you have any recent friends who have died who would invite you to such an impersonal service?
Since it seems reasonable to assume that changes in copper prices, bond yields, and the exchange rate reflect primarily global demand factors rather than anything going on specific to the oil market, I concluded that about $20 of the $47 drop in the price of oil between July 4 and December 12 could be attributed to demand factors. There’s a decent argument to be made the Xi is reversing the policies which have defined China since Deng, ie, moving to an inward-looking, more authoritarian policy, rather than an outward facing, commercial approach. This is an unconstrained forecast, which assumes oil below, say, $70 barrel on a Brent basis.
So I see this as a permanent growth slow-down, which could but hasn’t yet turned into a serious cyclical slowdown. Since then the forecast cuts have been coming mainly from the former Soviet space and other oil producers. In China’s case, a marked deceleration of real GDP per capita from 6% to 2-3% is quite likely in the years ahead, owing largely from a collapse in exports, investment, and production, and an increase in energy and food imports. It may well be that even they have little influence or control over the price, certainly in the near term.
Net effect: supply restriction and the elimination of supply sources that can meet demand in the future. Well, I am not going to make any further predictions about the near term movement of the price, but it is on the record that the Saudis would like it to stay there.
It is the most overpoliticized nothing out there, with btth sides wildly exaggerating its significance for anything, both the supposed economic gains from it and the supposed environmental losses from it. The search for alternative outlets continues and could eventually see dil-bit pipelined to Atlantic Canada — something I would have thought several years ago was not cost effective.
Per FTC guidelines, this website may be compensated by companies mentioned through advertising, affiliate programs or otherwise. While the Internet and online security become more and more advanced as the years pass, so to do the tactics of these e-scams.
Other indicators of an economic slowdown outside the United States are falling prices of other commodities and a strengthening dollar.
This is exactly the change which overtook Hungary after 1990 and why I’m writing from Princeton and not Budapest. Moreover Asian EM cities are getting about as smogged and gridlocked up as they can get, and there’s a growing recognition that fuel subsidies are stupid and the money needs to be redirected into mass transit.
And there has been very little demand projection increase, mainly because so many EMs and oil producers, which had been the main drivers of demand growth, are not fully passing on the price drop to their consumers. Back in Novemeber the Saudis were reported to have planned their fiscal policy based on an oil price between $45 and $50 per barrel. Curiously, the price of oil fell in dollars and euros and yen and yuan all at the same time.
In the future, investors will be unwilling to back any producer with costs higher than the Saudis knowing that the Saudis can drive down prices anytime they want to by maintaining production higher than demand warrants if they feel threatened by new competition. The whole debate is an embarrassing farce, but its impact on the price of oil is most asuredly epsilon approaching zero.. They feel good about helping Mother Earth and continue to personally benefit from low excise taxes.
Make sure to research a link: A legit, secure URL will redirect to an ‘HTTPS’ address, not just ‘HTTP.’ If you feel that you must open a link, open it manually into your browser, just don’t click any links!
The oil price drop is giving governments an easy way to do that without having to increase petrol prices. That represents a very important decision being made by EMs to use the oil price drop to shift resources into other things besides more rapid oil consumption growth.
It seems, according to Ricardo, that all currencies increased with respect to each other simultaneously. Just ask yourself this: How many wealthy Nigerians do you know that need your specific help, and why do they need you? So on top of the permanent growth slowdown in China I see a permanent downshift developing in oil consumption growth relative to overall growth across EM Asia.
If prices remain around $50 Brent in March, I would expect the Saudis to cut then with plenty of advance notice (ie, they will have an incentive to talk up the price even without cutting). Here are my numbers, followed my answers my some frequently asked questions and general commentary.
I’m not rushing to pay off the student loan so I can have cash on hand to eventually make a down payment on a house, and the rate is decent.



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