13.10.2015

Pregnancy age 47 statistics

The graphs below are from the 2012 ART Success Rates report published by the CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a US government agency.
High quality IVF results in better embryo quality which leads to better chances for successful outcomes - at any age.
Most IVF centers are willing to attempt IVF using the female partner's eggs until about age 44, after which the couple would be offered egg donation as the only realistic advanced fertility treatment. Having made the exciting decision to start your own family you are sure to be wondering how long it will take to get pregnant. You may find it encouraging knowing that the number of women over the age of 30 having babies has risen in recent decades (ONS 2010) .
Most women will be able to conceive naturally and give birth to a healthy baby if they get pregnant at 35 years old.
The average age at which women have in vitro fertilisation (IVF) treatment in the UK is rising. While many men remain fertile into their 50s and beyond, the proportion of men with sperm disorders increases with age (RCOG 2011). About half of the women who don't get pregnant in the first year conceive during the following year, giving a pregnancy rate of 92 per cent within two years.
Figures for women aged 30 to 34 and aged 35 to 39 are fairly similar, with 94 per cent and 90 per cent conceiving within two years, respectively (NCCWCH 2013: 65). As a woman ages it is more likely that she may have had longer exposure to a condition that has not been treated. Age aside, there are some steps you can take to give yourself the best possible chance of conceiving and having a healthy pregnancy. Learn more about getting pregnant in your 20s, 30s or 40s, or get tips, advice and support in our friendly community of mums and mums-to-be. Join now to receive free weekly newsletters tracking your baby’s development and yours throughout your pregnancy. I found a couple of reasonably sciency links(George and Kamath, Socal Fertility) that suggest that the MFR is about 25% for a women aged 25, and 10% at age 35.
Given the MFR, the probability of getting pregnant after a given number of months can be calculated with a negative binomial distribution.


So almost half of the (healthy) 25 year olds get pregnant in the first monthtwo months, and after two years (the point when doctors start considering you to have fertility problems) more than 90% of 35 year olds should conceive.
This is the argument I used with my husband to get him to start trying immediately (i was 36 at the time and i told him it would take at LEAST a year to get pregnant). Add to this curve that male fertility shows a 21-23% annual decrease starting at the age of 39 and male fertility is believed to be falling at a rate of 2% every year due to environmental pollutants.
You should take into account that woman get older during next attempts to become pregnant, so MFR will decrease. This analysis seems generally optimistic, especially because most of the age groups show a 100% of getting pregnant eventually. On your curve, with MFR=0.05, a woman has 85% chance to be pregnant after 3 years and 95% after 5 years.
I should perhaps have stressed more that this model is based upon women of average fertility for an age group.
Another confusing issue is how to handle subjects who become pregnant multiple times in the data. My point is that your model is very far away from reality (the real curves would not look at all like that, it would be way flatter after one year) because you take MCR as an input, whereas your only input is the age, from which you make an initial estimation of MCR.
The first month, your estimate your MCR from the only information you have: the age, which is what you did.
An MFR of 0.25 means that one quarter of 25-year olds will get pregnant in the first month. On a more practical note, my wife got pregnant within two cycles of starting to use an electronic ovulation tester.
The situation is grimmer than this, because of fetal loss, which, I think, increases with the age of the mother. You know the most fertile years are in your 20s, but want to get a better idea of how age affects your fertility.
Fertility starts to decline for women from about the age of 30, dropping down more steeply from the age of 35 (CKS 2007, NCCWCH 2013:65).
Even though male fertility also declines with age (RCOG 2011, Utting and Bewley 2011), it tends to happen gradually for men.


For some women having a multiple pregnancy brings them their dream family in one pregnancy. But if you are over 35, and finding that positive pregnancy test elusive, it is important to seek help sooner rather than later (NCCWCH 2013:6).
Not doubting you, just curious to read more about it [child health researcher of prime reproductive age]. In the case of extreme infertility problems (for example, you’ve had a hysterectomy and thus have no womb), the MFR is zero, and the chance is getting pregnant is zero over any time period.
As someone working in the field, it’s great to see emphasis on the statistics behind conception rather than the usual bland stats or scare tactics. As women grow older the likelihood of getting pregnant falls while the likelihood of infertility rises. By the age of 40 only two in five of those who wish to have a baby will be able to do so (RCOG 2011). This could prevent fertilisation altogether or increase the likelihood of an ectopic pregnancy (CKS 2007, NCCWCH 2013:129, Utting and Bewley 2011). The paradox of declining fertility but increasing twinning rates with advancing maternal age.
Does this mean age has something to do with my situation or You suggest I start seeking professional help. Because if it did not work during 3 years, it could be just bad luck, but most likely the MFR is lower than the expected one knowing only the age. This suggests that by 12 months, 90% of those who will ever get pregnant naturally, already have. However, it becomes possible to statistically assign couples to one of these groups based on time trying and a little bit of medical history, and then provide a much more realistic assessment of the chances of natural pregnancy.



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