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Biofuels are a recent development, which has seen significant attention recently due to humanity's ever-dwindling supply of natural resources or more specifically our over-dependence on fossil fuels. This has stemmed a great deal of scientific research into the issue of alternative energy and bio fuels have been seen as a potentially environmentally and affordable way for us to reduce our dependency on fossil fuels. Biofuels is really an umbrella term and it can mean almost anything, from hydroelectric power, which is generated from waves to wind, solar and other forms of generating energy.
Up until recently, car manufacturers were highly reluctant to invest significantly in bio fuels research for mainstream vehicles. This has meant that until further research has been completed, many industries are reluctant to join in to develop biofuels into a sustainable and realistic form of energy.
Many people argue that the reason car manufacturers have started to adopt biofuels as a technology is mainly because of pressure from the world governments due to the environmental impact that fossil fuels are having on the planet.
Speaking from an environmental perspective, the rate of consumption for fossil fuels has risen exponentially in the past twenty years and as a result, we are now faced with the reality that fossil fuels such as petrol and diesel will run out within the next hundred years. There is a similar process that takes place creating bio-petrol by fermenting crops such as sugar cane. However, problems exist due to the properties of ethanol as it is more corrosive than petrol and as a result, it cannot be used in many aircraft or boats. These are examples of first generation biofuels and due to their nature they may or may not be long-term economically or environmentally viable. Until that time comes, we will always have a reliance on fossil fuels and we can only hope that biofuels as analternative is a reality within the next twenty years.
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The main sources used for constructing Figures 3 to 12 are the Biofuels Platform, the European Biodiesel Board (EBB), the Earth Policy Institute, the FAO, the OECD, FO Licht, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Renewable Fuel Association (RFA).
Biofuels and World Agricultural Markets: Outlook for 2020 and 2050Guyomard Herve1, Forslund Agneta1, 2 and Dronne Yves1[1] INRA, France[2] TAC, (previously INRA, France), France1.
First Generation biofuels are produced directly from food crops by abstracting the oils for use in biodiesel or producing bioethanol through fermentation[1]. Second Generation biofuels have been developed to overcome the limitations of first generation biofuels. Four Generation Bio-fuels are aimed at not only producing sustainable energy but also a way of capturing and storing co2. Les fabriquants vous diront que les cheminees sont capables de chauffer un appartement mais ce n’est pas le cas. Enfin, les fabriquants rappellent qu’une combustion de 2 litres de bioethanol degage autant de CO2 que deux bougies ! Tres souvent, l’ethanol de cheminee est un ethanol de qualite moyenne denature selon le procede general avec du methanol, ce qui lui donne une odeur, surtout en fin de combustion. Le retour d’experience sur ces appareils montrent qu’il y a heureusement tres peu d’accident avec les appareils fonctionnant a l’ethanol. Sortie de la norme DIN Allemande pour ces prochains mois pour les cheminees fonctionnant au bioethanol! J ai suivi tous les conseils de ces fabricants ( qui ne pensent qu’a vendre) et mon fils a ete brule a 40 % du corps dont 22% au 3eme degres avec trachee et poumons brules (tout ca par la vapeur d eau chaude). Oups, desole de retard, c est une cheminee Crystal vendue sur eBay vendeur De Strasbourg mais selon le CSC, ce vendeur aurait retire cette cheminee de ses ventes ! Vous souhaitez cuire vos chataignes dans votre cheminee, au feu de bois, plutot que de les faire bouillir ou de les griller au four ?
Le sol de votre garage est jonche d’objets, d’outils et autres, vous obligeant a vous contorsionner, a effectuer des sauts en Fosbury et a enchainer des saltos arrieres pour le traverser ?
Figure 1 shows the huge increase in world energy consumption that has taken place in roughly the last 200 years. With energy consumption rising as rapidly as shown in Figure 1, it is hard to see what is happening when viewed at the level of the individual. In this post, I provide additional charts showing long-term changes in energy supply, together with some observations regarding implications.
There was a need to find jobs for returning US soldiers, so that the country would not fall back into the recession it was in prior to World War II.
The US had a large oil industry that it wanted to develop, in order to provide jobs and tax revenue. Major infrastructure development projects were put into place during this period, including the Eisenhower Interstate System and substantial improvements to the electrical transmission system. To facilitate purchases both by companies and by consumers, the government encouraged the use of debt to pay for the new good. Figure 4 shows that there is a distinct “bend” in the graph about 1950, when population started rising faster, at the same time that energy consumption started rising more quickly. Figure 5 shows that the first periods a large percentage increases in energy use occurred about the time of World War I. A person can see that in the most recent decade (2000 to 2010), per capita energy use is again rising rapidly.
We can see from Figure 6 that per capita consumption of oil peaked in the 1970 to 1980 time period, and has since been declining.
Coal consumption per capita stayed pretty much flat (meaning that coal consumption rose about fast as population growth) until the last decade, namely the period after 2000. If we look at the United States line on Figure 7, we can see that the most recent peak in US per capita consumption of energy was in the year 2000. A person would expect energy consumption to be correlated with the number of jobs for a couple of reasons. If changes in international trade caused US wage earners to be more in direct competition with wage earners from other countries, it would not be surprising if a smaller percentage of the US population has jobs, and that median wages dropped in real terms between 2007 and 2010. Figure 10 (below) shows world per capita energy consumption on a year-by-year basis, similar to Figure 7.
Figure 10 shows that world per capita energy consumption was increasing until the late 70s, hitting a peak in 1977. These emissions are not on a per-capita basis, but the graph illustrates what happens when the production of goods and services is increasingly outsourced to Asia, where coal is used as the primary fuel. If we compare the growth of CO2 emissions and the growth of energy use, both on a per capita basis (Figure 12), we see that the CO2 emissions grew more slowly than energy consumption in the 1970 to 1990 period, so the lines increasingly diverged. This divergence appears to result from the changing fuel mix (more nuclear and more natural gas, relative to coal) during the period. Even the period between 1980 and 2000 may be misleading for predicting future patterns because this period occurred before the huge increase in international trade. Another false inference might be that per capita oil consumption has declined in the past (Figure 6), so future declines should not be a problem. The small amounts of new renewables to date should be of concern to economists if they are counting on these for the future.
The fact that things haven’t fallen apart so far doesn’t give the assurance that things never will fall apart. The opinions of the contributors to Financial Sense® do not necessarily reflect those of Financial Sense, its staff, or its parent company, PFS Group.
In this weeklong series, BU researchers explore the science behind Earth’s environmental changes, and what they mean for our future.
Cutler Cleveland, a CAS professor of earth and environment, says the time is now to convert to alternative energies. Cleveland’s convictions come not only from his own research, but also from a series of eight seminars that brought environmental experts from universities in the United States and Europe to BU throughout the 2010–2011 academic year. Germany’s production of alternative energy, which provides nearly 11 percent of the country’s energy needs, leads G-20 (a group of finance ministers and central bank governors from 20 major economies) members, states a 2012 report by the National Resources Defense Council. Worldwide investment in solar power has increased sharply in recent years, including in places like Israel, where the Arava Power Company, headed by Yosef Abramowitz (CAS’87), installed 18,500 photovoltaic panels. Cleveland’s research suggests that not a single country will flip its dependency completely to renewables within the next 50 years. And while the federal government has not established benchmarks for wind and solar production, many states have. Nuclear power, another low-carbon energy source, currently provides 3 percent of the world’s energy, Cleveland says, but its hazardous waste disposal and safety risks make it less desirable than wind and solar. The United States has 65 operating nuclear power plants, most of them concentrated along the East Coast and in the Midwest and all of them built more than 30 years ago. Biomass—such as switchgrass, corn, or sugar cane converted to biofuel—is another alternative source of energy, but Cleveland is discouraged by the carbon exchange of the biomass process. Gas tax hikes, like the one Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick recently proposed, or divestment from fossil fuels are moves in the right direction. Tomorrow, in part five of our series, professors of environment and economics discuss how taking action to mitigate climate change could affect the economy.
Mariners especially sailors have been using wind and solar technology to generate electricity for longer than nearly anyone and sadly we have a long way to go. On the other hand punishing consumption of fossil fuels by those not inclined not to use alternatives is madness that has a negative impact on the economy. The electricity in my apartment is powered by 100% renewable clean energy via a program offered by Mass. Spain (double the area, triple the population of New England) met 26% of their electricity demand with wind power during the time period of Nov 2012-Feb 2013. The earth-advocacy work of Cutler Cleveland, Nathan Philips and others in the Boston University community as well as the current useful coverage by Boston University Today deserves much applause. I am still looking for a straight answer on why a bunch of incomplete measurements taken over a ridiculously short period gives us enough certainty to upend the world economy. Why does no one ever talk about planting more trees which serve a multiplicity of purposes not the least of which is absorbing carbon dioxide? The USA has been using fossil fuels since their inception and will continue to do so unabated until truly affordable alternatives are available. In the mean time trying to force people to do something they do not want to via higher taxes will only serve to slow economic growth. I am a mariner and despite the responses to what I have said if alternative renewable energy had really arrived we would be among the first to adopt it as the cost of fuel for a large power boat is exorbitant. We also like more range when at sea and again would be the first to adopt any renewal system that really worked. People currently have to cover the entire roof on their home with solar panels to generate enough electricity to substantially reduce their costs which exemplifies the square foot requires of these devices. Bio fuels from ethanol crops and bio fuel from recycled used cooking oil ought to be in two different categories under the pie chart. Department of Agriculture (USDA) show the size of the current corn harvest, and how much of it is projected to be used for ethanol. Yet record temperatures and drought throughout the country means this year’s crop could be far lower than originally expected. However, for the most part the term biofuels is used to refer to that of alternative substitutes for petrol, diesel or aircraft fuel. This was because biofuels are to some extent an unproven technology – we know it works; just there is little research on the overall benefits of biofuels not only to consumers, but also to the planet. This creates a natural ethanol, which can also be mixed with petrol to create a sort of hybrid biofuel that can be used in any petrol powered vehicle. Arguments exist that both support the continued use of biofuels and prove they are not the miracle fuel we are waiting for. In the next twenty years, we look set to see biofuel research expand exponentially as we get close to the day when fossil fuels are exhausted. For the “starch industry”, cereal use is estimated from data on corn-gluten-feed production (Oil World 2010) and bioethanol production. Biofuel outlook by 2020 and 2050: to what extent second-generation biofuels could alleviate some of the negative consequences of first-generation biofuels?
IntroductionThe possibility to produce biofuels from different agricultural feedstocks has raised huge interest during the last decade.
In terms of production location, the structure of the world market for bioethanol is very different from that of biodiesel (Figure 2). When fossil oil prices started to soar as from 2000, biofuel production followed the same pattern. Biofuels represent 6% of the world production of cereals, oilseeds and sugar, and amounts to 60 Mha of agricultural land.
Crops such as wheat and sugar are the most widely used feedstock for bioethanol while oil seed rape has proved a very effective crop for use in biodiesel. They are produced from non-food crops such as wood, organic waste, food crop waste and specific biomass crops, therefore eliminating the main problem with first generation biofuels[1]. It takes advantage of specially engineered energy crops such as algae as its energy source[3]. Biomass materials, which have absorbed co2 while growing, are converted into fuel using the same processes as second generation biofuels. Ce combustible est un alcool d’origine biologique produit a partir de matieres vegetales, de betteraves, de canne a sucre, de ble ou encore de mais. Alors, lobbying des constructeurs de cheminees traditionnelles en vue de denigrer les cheminees au bioethanol ou veritable danger pour la sante ?
Malgre tout, les dangers proviendraient plus du monoxyde de carbone (voir les commentaires a la fin de l’article).


Il faut imperativement choisir un ethanol debarrasse de ses impuretes, soit un ethanol SURFIN et denature selon un procede special qui ne provoque pas d’odeurs.
Il est a noter cependant qu’il n’existe a notre connaissance et a l’echelle europeenne aucun cas d’intoxication au monoxyde de carbone avec des appareils fonctionnant a l’ethanol. Le bio ethanol est une solution alternative interessante en complement d’un autre moyen de chauffage. Il existe differents types de coupe-branches pour tailler les arbres, arbustes et les haies.
To get a different view, Figure 2 shows average consumption per person, using world population estimates by Angus Maddison. Per capita world energy consumption, calculated by dividing world energy consumption shown in Figure 1 by population estimates, based on Angus Maddison data. There is also a small spurt about the time of World War I, and a new spurt in growth recently, as a result of growing coal usage in Asia. One such implication is how economists can be misled by past patterns, if they do not realize that past patterns reflect very different energy growth patterns than we will likely see in the future. Prior to 1900, energy per capita did not rise very much with the addition of coal energy, suggesting that the early use of coal mostly offset other fuel uses, or permitted larger families. US Non-Governmental Debt, Divided by GDP, based on US Federal Reserve and US Bureau of Economic Analysis data. Decade percentage increases in energy use compared to population growth, using amounts from Figures 2 and 4. It is easier to see what is happening with individual fuels if we look at them separately, as in Figure 6, below. The fuel that has primarily risen to take its place is natural gas, and to a lesser extent, nuclear. In the period since 2000, there has been a huge rise in coal consumption in China and in other developing nations, particularly in Asia. Per capita energy consumption for selected countries, based on BP Statistical Data energy consumption and Angus Maddison population estimates. It is striking that the percentage of the US population with jobs also peaked in 2000 (Figure 8). First, jobs often involve using vehicles or machines that require fuels of some sort, so the jobs themselves require energy.
Year by year per capita energy consumption, based on BP statistical data, converted to joules. There was a fairly long period until about 2000 where per-capita energy consumption was on a plateau. Since 2000, the two lines are approximately parallel, indicating no further CO2 savings given the greater use of coal again. Once international trade with less developed nations increases, we can expect these nations will want to increase their energy consumption in any way that is possible, including using more coal. For one thing, the past drop in oil availability may very well have contributed to the employment issues noted above during the 2000 to 2010 period in the United States. For one thing, ramping up new renewables to amounts which can be expected to make a significant contribution is likely to take many years.
At least 80 percent of the energy people use to drive, heat their homes, and power gadgets comes from fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, and the consumption of all of the above contributes to global warming. In 2011, China invested $51 billion in alternative energy technologies and led the world in renewable power capacity with 70 total gigawatts, according to the international nonprofit Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century. Indonesia follows, with roughly 6 percent, and next is the United Kingdom, at about 4 percent. Here in Massachusetts, the legislature passed the Green Communities Act in 2008, requiring that 15 percent of the commonwealth’s electricity come from renewable energy by 2020.
Cleveland says that makes planning a new one relatively unknown territory, because there are no current price comparisons. The first step, he says, should be using fossil fuels to build a sustainable energy infrastructure. Cleveland thinks federal legislation taxing carbon or an international cap-and-trade system would put a bigger dent in emissions. Wind and solar are now viable, affordable technologies, and will only become more so with greater deployment. I just signed up to Energy plus’ green option for my electricity, and now have electricity from a 100% renewable source (wind power).
Some examples are that of biodiesel, which entails growing crops that contain high amounts of natural oil then through a process of hydrogenation or refining a more compatible bio diesel, substitute is created. This interest can be related to the parallel increase in fossil oil prices and the growing awareness about the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide. It is however noteworthy that the 2009 decline in fossil oil prices had no effect on the upward trend of biofuel production (Figure 4). At that date, Brazil held 87% of the world bioethanol market, followed by far by the US but with 1.6 Bl only. Other uses include starch production, oil for soap production, lubrication, paint and varnish, lipid chemistry, etc. From 1981 to 2003, upward movements phases have been followed by downward movements so that the area in 2003 is practically equal to that of 1981, about 880 Mha. Second Generation biofuels are also aimed at being more cost competitive in relation to existing fossil fuels[2]. This process differs from second and third generation production as at all stages of production the carbon dioxide is captured using processes such as oxy-fuel combustion[4]. Avec une installation sans travaux et sans recours a un conduit d’evacuation, leur design et les innovations des marques seduisent de plus en plus de monde. Sa production peut donc entrer dans la categorie des energies renouvelables puisque provenant de la biomasse. Achetez obligatoirement un produit repondant aux normes NF et au mieux a la norme Afnor NF D 35-386.
A titre d’info, le meilleur que nous ayons trouve sur le marche est le Sanzodeur de Bionodor. There was a small increase in energy consumption per capita during World War I, but a dip during the depression prior to World War II. Population increased a bit with the first spurt in energy use, but did not really take off until the second spurt. This increase in coal consumption seems to be related to the increase in manufacturing in Asia following the liberalization of world trade that began with the formation of the World Trade Organization in 1995, and the addition of China to the organization in 2001. The passage of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 may have contribute to rising Asian coal consumption because it encouraged countries to reduce their own CO2 emissions, but did not discourage countries from importing goods made in countries using coal as their primary fuel for electricity.
This was a period where consumers were shifting from oil to electricity where possible, a process that was typically more efficient. Wind and solar contributions are not large enough to make an appreciable difference in CO2 levels. The rapid energy growth allowed much manual work to be performed by machine (for example, using a back hoe instead of digging ditches by hand). For another, oil issues may very well have contributed to the Iraq war, and even to World War II.
For another, new renewables require fossil fuels for their creation, so they are very much tied to the current system. While some countries may continue to grow using coal, other countries will flounder when hit by high oil and natural gas prices. That same year, the United States put $48 billion in such technologies and achieved total generation of 68 gigawatts. The United States came in seventh, with only 3 percent of its electricity coming from renewables. Government subsidies and technological improvements in the manufacture of turbines have lowered the cost of wind energy, so that it now competes with energy produced by natural gas and burning coal. Massachusetts plans to generate 2,000 megawatts of wind energy within the next seven years and 250 megawatts of solar power by 2017. It’s also politically risky, as most communities don’t want one in their backyard and are hesitant to adopt a technology that produces radioactive waste with a half-life of thousands of years.
The ecologist and author of A Prosperous Way Down argues that to survive, the human species must learn how to decline prosperously. For that we pay an extra $25 or so per month than we would running fossil fuel generated electricity. I want coal, oil or gas derived electricity, I want lots of it and I want it as cheaply as possible.
So you can sit around and talk all you want about the joys of solar and wind, you can praise one another and slap each other on the back for all your great ideas and work, I don’t care.
Government incentives for corn ethanol increase demand at a time when corn is expected to be in short supply. This creates a biodiesel, which can be mixed with mineral diesel then used in any diesel-powered automobile. Biofuels are also seen by many governments as a means to contribute to the diversification of energy supply and sustain agricultural incomes by creating new outlets for several agricultural products, notably cereals, vegetable oils and sugar plants.Ambitious public policies aiming at developing biofuel production and consumption in replacement of fossil fuels used in road transport have thus been set up all around the world. The third world actor, the EU, is a much more modest (2.9 Bl) and furthermore less dynamic producer than several other players. Production in the rest of the world increased sharply (+1.1 Mtoe, +22%) with very strong growth rates in Canada, China, Thailand, Colombia and South Korea. This means that biofuel development worldwide cannot be explained by fossil oil prices only; other factors are playing, notably public policies.
Increases have been particularly marked in Argentina, Brazil and the US, a large part of production from these three countries being exported, notably towards the EU. Ethanol production from cereals and starch produce 55 Mt of co-products used for animal feed under the form of, for example, corn gluten feed (CGF) or dried distillers grains and solubles (DDGS). There is much debate over their actually benefit in reducing green house gas and co2 emissions due to the fact that some biofuels can produce negative Net energy gains, releasing more carbon in their production than their feedstock’s capture in their growth. It is predicted that algae will have the potential to produce more energy per acre than conventional crops. The carbon dioxide can then be geosequestered by storing it in old oil and gas fields or saline aquifers. Part of the population rise after World War II may be related to the invention of antibiotics–Penicillin (1942), Streptomycin (1943), and Tetracycline (1955).
Other reasons might include more education for women, and more women entering into the paid work force.
I omit broadly defined biofuels (which would include animal feed and whale oil, among other things) used in Figure 2, and instead show a grouping of modern energy sources from BP statistical data. Thus, the fact that people in the US have jobs raises the demand for goods and services requiring energy. It was only in the last decade when production goods of many sorts started shifting to Asia and living standards in Asia starting rising that world energy consumption per capita has again begun increasing.
Thus, there appeared to be considerable growth in human efficiency, but such growth is not likely to be repeated in the future. Furthermore, there may be Liebig’s Law of the Minimum issues, because most vehicles use gasoline or diesel for fuel and cannot run without it. It is quite possible that some countries will encounter major difficulties in the years ahead, even though they have so far been untouched. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future and supported by a grant from the Andrew W. Germany, the third greatest investor in alternatives, spent $31 billion and reached total capacity of 61 gigawatts.
But solar, which has also benefited from subsidies and technological advancements, and wind account for only a couple of percentage points of total power generation in the world. While far from reaching its wind energy goal, the commonwealth reports that it’s 90 percent of the way to accomplishing its solar goal. That’s a small fraction of my cell phone bill and chump change when you think about the good it does and the cost of other things you put your money towards.
Fossil fuels you need to extract and have it pass through a whole process before you can use it, and thats what makes it price augment. We have such a short amount of time left to curb our emissions before we enter feedback loops (ie. Many argue that diverting such a huge percentage of the corn crop to make ethanol contributes to food price volatility and food shortages around the world.The question is, just how many people could corn used for ethanol feed? Following the adoption of an ambitious mandate in 2004, the US production exceeded that of Brazil for the first time in 2005 (Figure 5). Co-products from biodiesel production amount to 10 Mt; they are included in the category ‘total oil meal”.
From 2004, the trend is clearly increasing: in eight years, the area of cereals, oilseeds and sugar plants has increased by nearly 80 Mha (+9%). Algae can also be grown using land and water unsuitable for food production, therefore reducing the strain on already depleted water sources. JE VAIS FAIRE TOUT POUR QUE CELA N ARRIVE PLUS A D AUTRES ENFANTS OU ADULTE, c est honteux de mettre un tel produit sur le marche. It will also help make the issue more visible and maybe other airlines will follow suit in the same way that the Toyota Prius hybrid paved the way in the late 1990s.


Use of energy to upgrade water and sewer services, and to sterilize milk and to refrigerate meat, may have made a difference as well.
What I show as “BP-Other” includes ethanol and other modern biofuels, wind, geothermal, and solar.
Figure 2 also illustrates that a transition from one fuel to another takes many, many years–we have not at this point transitioned from away coal, and nuclear is still only a small percentage of world energy consumption. The precarious debt situations of a number of countries leave them vulnerable to disruptions. The commitments have helped Massachusetts tie with Texas for fifth place nationally in a 2012 Ernst & Young report on promising renewable energy markets. The bottom line is this; I want cheap power and I will vote for the person who can deliver it to me. Wind energy for example, you need no refineries of extraction, you just build the wind turbine and it does all the work for you. Evolution over the last twenty yearsBiofuel production is influenced by both public policies aiming at encouraging their development and relative prices of fossil oil and agricultural products used for biofuel production. The area increase was particularly important in 2004 (+27 Mha) partly in compensation for the decrease in 2003.
As the majority of biofuels are produced directly from food crops the rise in demand for biofuels has lead to an increase in the volumes of crops being diverted away from the global food market. A further benefit of algae based biofuels is that the fuel can be manufactured into a wide range of fuels such as diesel, petrol and jet fuel. As oil keeps getting more expensive and new carbon taxes and cap-and-trade plans appear on the horizon, having access to low-carbon fuels might become a big competitive advantage.We encourage Virgin to not give up on finding truly sustainable second-generation biofuels (made from algae, for example) that don't compete with food and fresh water resources. Life expectancy in the US grew from 49 in 1900 to 70 in 1960, contributing to population growth. Not sure if pollution solution failure is anything related to the fall of this manufacturer.
But the boom in agricultural prices and the following food crisis in 2007-2008 have severely depreciated the public image of biofuels because of their potential negative impact on world food security in a context of land scarcity.
The importance of each factor varies according to countries, and, to some extent, the sub-periods considered over the last two decades.World biofuel production started developing between 1975 and 1985, mainly in the form of bioethanol with Brazil as the main producer. As a result, it can be of some interest to consider in parallel three evolutions over the last decade, that of bioethanol production, that of fossil oil prices and that of corn prices (corn is the raw material used for bioethanol production in the US).
The increase was also important in 2008 (+17 Ma) and 2009 (+14 Mha) in response to the 2007-08 agricultural price peak. Anything less is too big a compromise and won't be truly green.The next big step might be flying wings. But I just think it’s important how we weight the benefits and costs especially the environment costs around solar energy. Simultaneously, the issue of the impact of biofuel crops on GHG emissions due to induced land use changes has progressively emerged; it is today a matter of considerable controversy.
More specifically, Figure 7 depicts the annual growth rate of bioethanol production and the evolution of the price ratio of petrol oil on corn. The area devoted to cereals has slightly decreased, the area of sugar plants is remained practically constant and the area in oilseeds has increased by more than 55 Mha.
The increase was negligible in 2009 in reaction to the 2008-2009 agricultural price decline and the 2008 financial crisis.
Therefore, if you now just a little bit about making project be cost beneficial, you should know much better that the renewables are much cheaper because there is no extraction of refinery involved. In addition, concerns have risen about the relatively low energy yield of current biofuels and the budget cost of public policies aiming at encouraging their development. Despite area contraction, world cereal production has increased by 19% thanks to improvements in yields (+21%). Initially, the debate about these interrelated issues has been confined to a narrow audience, mainly in the academic sphere. Since 2000, the two curves evolve in parallel with a time lag of two or three years which corresponds to the delay needed to build and start up new bioethanol production plants.
World production of oilseeds has increased much more importantly (+75%) thanks to area expansion (32%) and improvements in yields (+32%). We found it by doing a search for "virgin boeing 747" and didn't know that there are no double-decker 747. And how long can a solar panel last being usable and how often do we need to keep the production with some sort of pollution there though I believe technology is advancing to reduce the pollution risk. However, over the past three years, many stakeholders including environmental organizations, farmers’ unions, the media, etc., have shown a considerable interest in the matter leading to a very lively debate worldwide, and more particularly in the EU. Biodiesel production was negligible until the beginning of this century (less than 7% of total biofuel production in oil equivalent in 2000). First-generation (1G) biofuels produced from traditional food and feed crops are increasingly criticized for their adverse impacts on world food security and GHG emissions, essentially because they can divert land from food and feed, as well as land forest uses. As a result, hopes turn to a quick development of second-generation (2G) biofuels produced from various sources of biomass that do not directly compete with food and feed crops and, furthermore, are expected to be more efficient in transforming biomass into bioenergy. This happened despite a very high price of sugar in 1980 and 1981 because of the simultaneous rise in fossil oil prices and also because of the biofuel development policy in place at that date (Pons 2007). World production of vegetable oils has increased by 65 Mt (+90%), out of which 39 Mt (60%) have been used for food, 17 Mt (26%) for fuel and 9 Mt (14%) for other uses: by contrast with cereals, the first outlet of additional vegetable oils has been food uses. However, the fact that there is no direct competition does not mean the absence of indirect competition when land is required for growing biomass, even for 2G biofuels.Our research objective is then to analyze to what extent the development of biofuels and, within this general framework more specifically the development of 2G biofuels in line with the first one, could affect world food security and the environment (GHG emissions and biodiversity protection). Between 1985 and 2000, production increased more slowly because of a low fossil oil price and a relatively high sugar price for sugar.
As a result, while cereal consumption per capita has increased by only 11%, from 139 to 154 kilograms, that of vegetable oils has increased by 66%, from 9 to 15 kilograms. The chapter is structured as follows.In Section 2, we present a general framework of GHG emissions and energy uses worldwide, 1G and 2G biofuels produced today and that could be produced on an industrial scale in the future. Ethanol production rose again in 2001 with both an increase in fossil oil price and a decrease in sugar price. World production of sugar has increased by 61 Mt (+46%), out of which 37 Mt for food and 16 Mt for fuel. We summarize the potential benefits of 1G biofuels that are used for justifying public support, and we recall the main criticisms against them. We then analyze the theoretical arguments in favor of 2G biofuels, and again why there might be discrepancies between theory and reality. Section 3 depicts the worldwide increase in 1G biofuel production and consumption over the last decade. As in the US where bioethanol production growth rates are influenced by the fossil oil on corn price ratio, Brazilian bioethanol production growth rates are related to the fossil oil on sugar price ratio (Figure 9). They also show that increases have been heterogeneous between products, much more important for vegetable oils and sugar than for meat and eggs, and cereals.
The analysis distinguishes bioethanol obtained from cereals and sugar crops, and biodiesel obtained from vegetable oils. But contrary to what can be observed in the US, it appears that Brazilian bioethanol production annual changes precede those of the fossil oil on sugar price ratio by about one year. This means that biofuel production development over the period, from 17 Mt to 84 Mt, has had an impact of food security here defined in terms of cereals, oilseeds and sugar available for food consumption: this impact has been more pronounced for cereals than for oilseeds and sugar.
We also depict the current weight of agricultural products used for biofuel production as compared to total uses of agricultural products, and we analyze the current trend for these crops in terms of areas, yields and prices.
This can be explained by the dominant position of Brazil on the world sugar market: when an increased part of Brazilian sugar production is devoted to bioethanol production, sugar prices decrease the year after, and vice-versa. As far as prospects are concerned, two time horizons are considered, 2020 in Section 4 and 2050 in Section 5. For each horizon, we analyze the potential impact of several scenarios for biofuel development on world food security, focusing on cereals and oilseeds used for food, feed and energy.
These scenarios differ in terms of assumptions concerning, firstly the total supply and demand in biofuels in 2020 and 2050, secondly the substitution rates of 1G biofuels by 2G ones, thirdly the yields of biomass used for biofuel. The co-products of the process of transforming biomass into biofuels are taken into account since 1G biofuels jointly produce large amounts of co-products that can be used for animal feed, which is not the case with 2G biofuels.
Concerning the 2050 horizon, we also analyze the impact of biofuel development and the replacement of the first generation of biofuels by the second on world GHG emissions and biodiversity protection. The 2020 analysis is based on original simulations performed using a world agricultural partial equilibrium model called OLEOSIM while the 2050 analysis is a review of literature. They both show that the development of 1G biofuels will have a negative impact on world cereal production used for food and feed. However this negative impact is partially alleviated by the production of co-products associated with the supply of 1G biofuels from cereals and oilseeds. The replacement of 1G biofuels by the second generation will alleviate this negative impact. However it will not suppress it, notably if large amounts of 2G biofuels have to be produced from dedicated energy plants that require land and thus, indirectly, compete with other land uses: food, feed, environment protection, urban and transport infrastructures, etc. In the same way, the partial replacement of the 1G of biofuels by the second will reduce the negative impacts of biofuels on GHG emissions and biodiversity linked to land use changes; but it will not eliminate them. More generally, the increase in agricultural production required for food, feed and fuel worldwide should associate an expansion in cultivated area and, more importantly, a significant improvement in yields, notably in world regions where they are very low and low today.
The challenge is then to develop agricultural practices, techniques and systems that make it possible to achieve high levels of land productivity and simultaneously protect the environment and preserve natural resources. Competition between food and non-food uses of agricultural products Besides traditional uses, including food, feed, firewood and cooking, biomass can be used for energy production (bioenergy) and other industrial uses (bioproducts).
Bioenergy comprises uses for transport, including biofuels, as well as for heat and electricity production.
Beyond the uncertainties and inaccuracies in the figures due to missing or unreliable data, leading to difficulties in evaluating land surfaces dedicated to any particular use, orders of magnitude are robust: they clearly show the modest part of non-food uses of agricultural production compared to food uses, at least until 2005. In 2007, global emissions of CO2 attributable to petroleum products and their use amounted to 10.9 giga metric tons (Gt). In the short and medium terms, beyond energy savings and improved vehicle technologies, biofuels produced from biomass are seen as the major, if not the sole, alternative to the use of fossil oil in road transport.More generally, the production of energy from renewable resources should grow sharply over the next decades in the context of both a rising energy demand and a gradual dwindling of non-renewable energy resources. Food demand will also increase due to population growth as our planet will host more than 9 billion people by 2050, nearly 2 billion more than today, economic growth and increased urbanization. These last two elements will result in a shift in food consumption at the expense of plant products - cereals, roots and tubers – and in favor of animal products that are less effective at converting solar energy into food calories. Hence, the question of the ability of our planet to simultaneously satisfy nutritional needs and non-food uses, mainly for energy production, is raised in a context where development must necessarily be sustainable from an economic, social and environmental point of view, at the very least much more sustainable than today.
But in a first step, we will recall why 1G biofuels and government policies aiming at encouraging their development are the subject of an increasing questioning and to what extent 2G biofuels could bring an answer to this questioning. Promises of the second-generation of biofuels in response to criticisms of the first oneIn 2008, global biofuel production amounted to 46 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe), slightly more than 2% of total fuel used in road transport, mainly in the form of bioethanol in the US and Brazil and biodiesel in the EU. This production used 320 million metric tons (Mt) of sugar crops (17% of world production), 100 Mt of cereals (5%) and 11 Mt of vegetable oils (9%). These figures show that the use of agricultural commodities for biofuel production is still relatively modest today. However there has been a rapid development since the early 2000s, and acceleration in the more recent years. The GHG balance of 1G biofuels is positive, with however large variations depending on the feedstock used as input, when the analysis is made for a given area. It is much less positive, and even can be negative, when the surfaces of sugar crops, grains and oilseeds involved in biofuel production are obtained from former grassland or by cutting down forest surfaces (Fargione et al. It is of course necessary to complete this partial picture by taking into account the environmental cost. The latter is mainly related to land use changes, and more specifically to the loss of carbon storage in grassland and forests when the mobilization of one hectare of crops for energy requires, directly or indirectly, the “sacrifice” of one hectare of grassland or forest. This instantaneous effect is coupled with a dynamic loss of organic production from grassland and forests. Finally, production costs remain high today, especially when prices of raw plant materials used as resources are high too.In this strongly questioning, if not critical, context, more and more voices are calling for a halt in the production of 1G biofuels, at least as long as we have not made sure that their development is not detrimental to food production, and would like 1G biofuel farming to be allowed only if it has been proved to have a positive effect on the environment, energy and economic balances. Beyond the scientific and technical progress that can be made on these three points, hopes for the longer term focus on later generation biofuels. Two ways of transforming lignocellulosic biomass can be used: a thermo-chemical process which consists in cracking molecules under the action of heat, and a biochemical pathway in which once the raw material has been disintegrated, the complex carbohydrates of lignocellulose are hydrolyzed into simple sugars which are then transformed into ethanol by fermentation. While the thermo-chemical process requires large facilities and significant investments in order to benefit from reduced costs, the biochemical pathway can use the facilities currently used for 1G biofuels. However it is important to note the potentially negative impact of removing agricultural and forestry residues on the microbiological and physical properties of soils. In practice, the two interrelated questions raised by an energy-oriented use of residues and waste are the potential biomass availability and the cost of mobilizing this biomass (collection and storage costs).But if the raw material is a dedicated culture (even if it cannot be used for food), the question of competition with food uses of land arises under the same theoretical terms as for 1G biofuels. Supporters of 2G biofuels derived from dedicated crops suggest growing them on “marginal” land, in some way unsuitable for food crops (including for economic reasons).
But the potential for land to be mobilized in this way is uncertain because the need for a minimum profitability will likely require that, at least, some of these dedicated crops are located on sufficiently good land to obtain sufficient returns.



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