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Author: admin, 19.10.2013. Category: Understanding The Law Of Attraction

Introduction?World GDP growth is set to recover (+2.9% in 2014) but the pace of the recovery remains slow (below 3% for the third year in a row) and downside risks prevail. Text of the news?According to Euler Hermes’ latest global economic outlook, advanced economies are picking up speed with an expected growth of +2.0% in 2014, the fastest since 2010. As emphasized late last year, the ability of emerging economies to weather financial tensions largely depends on their financial fundamentals. The resulting list of 10 most vulnerable countries in the short-term, the ‘Fragile 10’ , includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, South Africa and Turkey.
Since then, the quality of economic policy and authorities’ responsiveness to the QE tapering program and rising (geo)-political risks in recent months reveal that some countries are in better shape to weather storms than others. Economic Soft Spots: Brazil, South Africa and, to a lesser extent, India are economic soft spots, having to adjust to a world where emerging markets are no longer investors’ darlings purely by definition.
The domestic political crisis escalated into a serious conflict between the Ukraine and Russia after the latter annexed the Crimea, taking a toll on the economies of the two affected countries but a negligible impact on Europe so far. Economic output proved resilient in 2013 despite political and global financial market turbulence.
After France failed to meet its initial fiscal deficit target of -3% of GDP in 2013, a new French prime minister in 2014 announced a slew of reforms aimed at bolstering business competitiveness and household purchasing power. Past experience shows that organizing major sporting events does not always have a positive impact on the host country’s economy.
The Indian economy underperformed during the past two years with GDP growth below +5% on average, compared with a +7% growth potential. Chinese GDP growth proved resilient in 2013, rising at a similar rate as the previous year (+7.7%). After several years of painful adjustments and deep financial and sovereign crises, Southern European countries are finally returning to positive growth, mainly thanks to a pick-up in exports linked to competitiveness gains.
The GCC countries account for over 29% of global oil reserves and over 23% of gas reserves. Below we have our fourth installment of cute, inspirational and artistic picture quotes designed to be printed out and used as wall pin-ups. The following examples demonstrate why rejection can be a positive thing, as it can propel you to move forward.
1) You Are Not Alone:                The best way to stay positive during a job hunt is to remember that many others up and down the country will be going through exactly the same thing as you are right now. They constitute the ‘Improving 4’ (Chile, Colombia, Mexico and the Philippines), the ‘Precarious 5’ (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey) and Argentina.

Also in this group are France, which needs to rethink its business model, and Germany, which could be challenged by prevailing eurozone deflationary pressures as well as the strong euro. Russian GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.7% and the Ukraine is likely to experience a deep recession (-3%) in 2014. Even if Brazil could be an exception, as it is hosting three sporting mega-events in a row, Euler Hermes expects a negligible impact on short- and medium-term growth. Monetary policy remains tight to protect the rand and international reserves, gold prices are weak and fraught labor relations restrict output growth in some key sectors, particularly platinum mining.
Combined with ongoing fiscal adjustments, structural reforms and reduced investor appetite for emerging markets, this has triggered a broad return in confidence and therefore a rise in portfolio inflows and foreign direct investments. It is especially hard in the job market, as it can sometimes feel like a constant.  But remember, it is not unusual to receive rejection during the job hunting process and it is vital to keep it all in prospective. For instance, did you know that Walt Disney was fired from his position at a newspaper because he ‘lacked ideas and creatively’ or that The Beatles were once told ‘no’ by a record company when they were just starting out? Take solace that rejection is not personal and that many others are soldiering onto their next application despite rejection. Abenomics still creates steady growth in Japan (+1.2%), though more efforts are needed to keep the engine running. Southern Europe shows signs of improving economic prospects and confidence after several years of painful adjustments and austerity. In 2014, domestic demand is expected to moderate as a result of monetary tightening and Turkish lira (TRY) depreciation. In contrast to France, Germany’s economic model is that of a thrifty and export-driven industrial powerhouse, as evidenced by its large current account surplus.
The slowdown in the Brazilian economy is mainly due to structural weaknesses that will not be offset by the sporting events. High inflation continued to erode purchasing power, restraining private consumption growth. Structural rigidities remain a source of concern, including high unemployment, large income inequalities, weak service delivery, troubled industrial relations and fiscal and current account deficits. First, the government moved from a strict growth-targeting framework to a more balanced one, aiming simultaneously at job creation, price stability and economic growth. With a combined population of only 49 million, oil export revenues have continued to build strong foreign exchange reserves and financial asset accumulation in Sovereign Wealth Funds (estimated at USD 2,250bn). Emerging economies remain the primary contributors to global growth (+4.3% in 2014), but expectations have dampened following the sharp revision of Russia’s growth prospects as well as slowing growth outlooks for Brazil, South Africa and Turkey.

China is also a member of the group despite challenges related to the changed business model, as there are positive signs of a successful transition. Still, recent PMI export orders data, and Bundesbank data, indicate a possible decline in momentum. While domestic demand has benefited in recent years from a combination of demand-supporting fiscal policy, low unemployment, increases in real wages and massive foreign capital inflows, investment has remained low. Unemployment remains at very high levels, the banking sector is still cleaning up balance sheets and long-lasting low inflation could hurt the recovery. Such reserves enable GCC countries to boost domestic demand through state spending on infrastructure projects and social spending. Net exports deteriorated on the back of an elevated import bill caused by high commodity prices (oil and gold represent 34% and 8% of imports respectively) and weaker-than-expected economic performance by India’s main partners, the U.S. Manufacturing seems poised for a strong recovery as unit labor costs continue to fall; manufacturing employment has risen for seven consecutive months. Thirdly, the normalization of financing conditions is ongoing, following improvements in credit quality with a deceleration in non-bank and off-balance-sheet financing. In the UK, domestic demand will remain the main driver of GDP growth (+2.4%) due to an increasingly business-friendly environment. The Federal Reserve is likely to completely terminate its quantitative easing program by the end of 2014, but remain highly accommodative due to a significant amount of liquid excess reserves that can be deployed into the economy.
Continued support to domestic consumption through bank lending and job creation, and further investments in knowledge and high value-added industries, would boost long-term growth.
Since mid-2013, India has been on financial market and investor radar due to deteriorating economic prospects and high fiscal and current account deficits.
Structural weaknesses need to be tackled further, but some steps in the right direction have been already taken. Financial stability (and therefore the reduction in short-term capital inflows) is one of the key priorities of new Central Bank Governor Rajan, and the current government initiated reforms to encourage foreign investment in key sectors.

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