How to invest in gold etf through icicidirect nri,easy ways to help insomnia,how to make money buying and selling stocks - PDF 2016

Author: admin, 05.11.2014. Category: Quote About Positive Thinking

One hundred years from now, historians will probably date the beginning of the fall of the American Empire to 1986. Related article: Developments in the Motor Industry Pushing Peak Oil Down the RoadAn administration that believed that global warming was a leftist hoax, coddled big oil, and put alternative energy development on a back burner. Related article: Replacing Platinum to Build Cheaper Fuel CellsA one-kilogram lithium-ion battery using today's most advanced designs produces 200 KwH. Take a Look at the chart below and you will see that the price of oil is breaking key support.
Traders are stunned by the performance of the shipping stocks this month, which have been far and away a top market performer. I wanted to get the low down on clean coal (KOL) to see how clean it really is, so I visited some friends at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. My current scenario for global equities has them selling off over the summer, then a rebounding led by emerging markets starting sometime in the fall. It certainly has been a year of gnashing teeth and tearing hair for inveterate gold bugs (GLD). I have been pounding the table on the attractions of Cheniere Energy (LNG) since last spring. Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, delivered a real blockbuster yesterday in the aftermath of the final Open Market Committee meeting of 2012 - looks like he really wants to end the year with a bang.Not only will the Fed continue with $40 billion-a-month worth of mortgage-backed securities to supercharge the housing market, it will also conduct an additional $45 billion-a-month of long-term Treasury bonds.
Avoiding emerging markets generally, and China specifically, has been one of my more prescient market calls this year. A rally in exchange traded funds that invest in gold miners has carried the sector ETFs close to their all-time highs from late 2010.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of John Spence, and may not actually come to pass. Faster Than You Think admin May 3, 2015 The End of the Tech Boom May Be Upon Us admin May 20, 2016 How Fast is High-Frequency Trading? This has major implications for the global economy, financial markets and your personal portfolio, so listen up!The key to deciphering this puzzle is oil, far and away Russia's largest export. Texas tea has now backed off $13 since the end of August, and lower prices beckon.It turned out that oil made an initial peak with the Egyptian Army's ferocious and bloody attack on the Muslim Brotherhood.
The big questions they are now asking are "Is it real?" and "Is it sustainable?"This sector has been down for so long that most investors left it for dead a long time ago. There was no way that the war was going to start before Obama gave his speech on Tuesday and congress votes yea or nay later on.So when the missiles failed to show by the Monday morning opening, they took Texas tea down a full buck.
On Friday morning, we were looking forward to a long weekend of missiles raining down on Syria and the regional conflagration that would follow.
The modern day descendent of the Atomic Energy Commission, where I had a student job in the seventies, the leading researcher on laser induced nuclear fission, and the administrator of our atomic weapons stockpile, I figured they'd know. In that case, you want to start building short lists of high growth countries to pile into, once the turn comes.I would be including Colombia on any such list. With growth flipping from a positive 3.1% figure in Q3 many thought that a Dow down 500 points was in the cards.
Once the deal on the "Fiscal Cliff" was done, and these instruments' special tax treatment protected, it was off to the races. I never believed in the hard landing scenario proffered by uber bear, Jim Chanos, for two seconds, betting instead that the Middle Kingdom would settle down to a more sedentary 6-7% GDP growth rate.
Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product. Faster Than You Think admin May 3, 2015 The Reality of Canadian Debt Levels admin November 3, 2013 The New Housing Bubble Just Began admin May 29, 2016 Going Against the Grain: Why Gold is Going Higher admin May 15, 2016 Justin Trudeau’s Broken Promises admin April 3, 2016 Do Baby Boomers Impact the Labor Force Participation Rate? At 10 million barrels a day, the country is taking in $360 billion a year in revenues from oil shipments.You can analyze Russia all day long, and come up with bullish arguments for the country, like the emerging middle class, its huge hoard of basic commodities, and substantial wheat exports. It is a dominant player in high-speed rail, and is making serious moves into commercial and military aviation. Never mind that the people supplying us with 2 million barrels of crude a day from the Middle East are trying to kill us through whatever means possible, and are using our money to do it.
But any freshman physics student can tell you that since electrical motors are four times more efficient than internal combustion ones, that is effective parity with gasoline. I hate to sound cynical here, but count the daily bodies in the street, which has been trending down sharply since the 1,000 plus tally. All that was missing was the tolling of the Lutine Bell at the insurance exchange, Lloyds of London.
The Charlie Rose interview with Bashar al-Assad, where he blamed it all on the rebels, also cast more doubt on the prospect of immediate hostilities.Don't kid yourself. Dirty coal currently supplies us with 35% of our electricity, and total electricity demand is expected to go up 30% by 2030.
Secretary of State, John Kerry, was certainly rattling the saber last night when he laid out the irrefutable evidence confirming the use of chemical weapons in Syria. In fact, he does everything he can to put me out of business.Take last Wednesday, for example, when the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee gave me and my views a complete thrashing.
It enjoys that sweet spot of being an oil exporting, emerging country whose shipments hit an all-time high of 884,000 barrels a day, about half the quantity that Libya once shipped. Prepared by my friends from government data at the online financial site run by Henry Blodget, Business Insider, it ranks the states most impacted by the sequestration of federal spending that starts on Friday, March 1. Runaway printing presses from the Federal Reserve, profligate spending from the US government, and a series of unending crises threatening our oil supplies in the Middle East.Yet, the barbarous relic has barely budged. These unique and versatile instruments combine the tax benefits of a limited partnership with the liquidity of publicly traded securities.The explosion in demand has created a new issue boom.
Once a new government was installed in Beijing, the uptrend would resume.My expectation was the new leadership, the first in ten years, would seek to ingratiate themselves with the masses by launching a series of new programs to stimulate the economy. But Texas tea (Russian tea?) overwhelms everything else in its impact on the national accounts. It is also cleaning our clock in electric cars, with more than 30 low cost, emission free models coming to the market by the end of 2013. Since no one has done any serious research on inorganic chemistry since the Manhattan project, until Elon Musk came along, the prospects for rapid advances are good. Lured by the heroin of artificially cheap financing during the naughts, the industry massively expanded capacity, believing that international trade would continue to grow at double digit rates forever.
President Obama then dropped a bombshell of his own, asking congress for a resolution approving military action. The industry is spewing out 32 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) a year and the great majority of independent scientists out there believe that the global warming it is causing will lead us to an environmental disaster within decades. Additional quantitative easing was the last thing in the world I was expecting because it was not justified by the current fundamentals.
It is down 4% year on year, and has been in a full-scale bear market for the past 18 months, stuck at $250 off its peak price.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) granted the final license needed by Cheniere Energy (LNG) to build the first of two liquefaction plants at Sabine Pass on the Texas Louisiana border on the Gulf of Mexico.
SunCoke Energy Partners (SXCP) makes coking coal used in the steel production process, came to market this week boasting an 8.25% yield. For traders, the bigger question is why they should be long gold during one of the most aggressive "RISK ON" rallies in recent years, when asset prices of every description, except precious metals, are going through the roof?When Bernanke announced QE4 hot on the heels of QE3, the kneejerk reaction of most investors was to load up on gold, myself included. Looking from a distance, one could conclude that China has already won the technology war.Not if Tesla's (TSLA) Elon Musk has anything to say about it. Over the weekend, I did manage to get a peek at the classified proof of the sarin gas attack, thanks to some senior military sources at the Pentagon.It includes recordings of radio transmissions from Syrian generals ordering the use of poison gas to teach a lesson, and other recordings of radar tracks showing the missiles flying from a Syrian army base to a Damascus neighborhood. He made this request of the least productive congress in history, one that rarely approves anything, whose sole mission is to oppose and embarrass Obama in all circumstances. Carbon Capture and Storage technology (CCS) locks up these emissions deep underground forever. What is new is the movement off assets to the immediate area, like a major carrier task force, which will park 100 miles offshore in the Eastern Mediterranean for the foreseeable future.My pick is for a no-fly-zone, which the administration should have executed a long time ago.
Most other independent analysts agreed with me, including several Fed governors.He could have let me off easy by announcing some minor back door easing, like ceasing interest rate payments on deposits from private banks.
Call it "F" day.It confirms what I have known for a very long time, that the US government is basically a giant recycling mechanism that sucks money out of blue states and spends it in red states. This flaccid performance is particularly egregious in the face of a torrid stock market, which has seen the S&P 500 soar 13% from its November bottom. The main culprit was in defense spending, down a mind numbing 22.2%, the worst since the wind down of the Vietnam War in 1972.
Then, CVR Refining (CVRR), which specializes in petroleum refining in Texas and Oklahoma, upped the ante with an eye popping 18.8% yield.
After all, monetary expansion and rising prices for the barbarous relic is one of the cleanest correlations out there.
The gloves are off.While QE3 is now only two months old, and financial markets have yet to feel its full impact, it has in effect, launched QE4 right on top of it. These should feed into more positive economic reports in the coming year.It now looks like that is exactly what we are getting. That's a big bite to swallow for a firm that has a remaining market capitalization of $27 billion. Most of the great leaps forward in US economic history were the product of massive government involvement. So Tesla S-1 battery that costs $30,000 today will run $15,000 in 2017 and only $7,500 in 2021. We were a day away from launching the missiles when the Russians delivered a last ditch compromise peace offering. Think of it as "subprime at sea."Then the 2008 financial crisis hit, and demand evaporated.
You are not going to get a better smoking gun than that.The Russians were not given access to this data to keep sources, methods, and the advanced state of our monitoring technology, secret. The problem is that there is only one of these plants in operation in North Dakota, a legacy of the Carter administration, and new ones would cost $4 billion each. But, no, Ben decided to make me look like a complete idiot, not by just announcing more QE, but one infinite in size that goes on forever. The map shows that by far, the biggest beneficiaries of Washington's largess are Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi, Alaska, Hawaii, Missouri, Maryland, Texas, and New Mexico.
FERC gave the go ahead despite vocal opposition from the Sierra Club, which claimed that fracking caused environmental damage. These things can't be that high risk!Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) is run by some of my former colleagues at Morgan Stanley and offers a 7% yield. But three months later, we are still waiting for the great bull market to begin in earnest. The deal will be financed by $11 billion in new debt.(FCX) is clearly looking at China's soaring energy demand as an impetus to get back into the oil business.
I'm thinking of the transcontinental railroad, the Panama Canal, Hoover Dam, the atomic bomb, and the interstate highway system. Per Kilowatt battery costs are dropping like a stone, from $1,000 a kWh in the Nissan Leaf I bought three years ago to $365. The low estimate to replace the 250 existing coal plants in the US is $1 trillion, and this will produce electricity that costs 50% more than we now pay. To make matters worse, he got his pals, ECB president Mario Draghi and BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda, to join in. Billionaire Carlos Slim, the world's richest man, has recently been seen as a major investor.The country also enjoys one of the world's most favorable demographic pyramids.
These are the states that stand the most to lose from the 8.5% across the board cut in spending that is about to take place.
Is there no value in a financial panic anymore?To paraphrase Winston Churchill, the answer is "a riddle, wrapped in mystery, inside an enigma," which is a fancy way of saying there are more reasons than one can count.No growth in the monetary base is the first answer that I give guests at my frequent global strategy luncheons. In fact, government spending was weak across the board as a quasi shut down in advance of the fiscal cliff brought spending to a grinding halt.
Kinder Morgan Energy (KMP) posts a healthy 5.8% yield, while Trans Mountain (TLP) ups the ante with an 8% return. They agree with my own analysis that the US is well on its way to becoming the world's largest energy exporter. Elon tells me that he plans to bring out a $40,000, 300-mile range "Next Gen" vehicle by 2018, which will reach 500,000 in annual production. Oil has been falling ever since.This returns us to the longer-term fundamental trend for oil, which is sideways at best, and down big at worst. He has put the Republicans in the uncomfortable position have having to vote against military action, something they have been clamouring for over the last two years.
In a gridlocked constrained congress, this is a big ticket that is highly unlikely to get picked up.While we can build a wall to keep out illegal immigrants from Latin America, it won't keep out CO2. A young, upwardly mobile workforce is producing a rising tide of consumers and a burgeoning middle class, while expensive seniors requiring social services and medical care are few and far between.Columbia was the world's best performing equity market in 2010, bringing in gains of over 100%. It is a broad-brush generalization with some exceptions, but you get the picture.The states that have the least to lose are New York, New Jersey, Oregon, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Iowa, Nebraska, and California. Over the last four years, the Fed balance sheet has ballooned from $800 billion to $3.6 trillion, and could be on its way to $5 trillion, thanks to QE1, 2, 3, 4, and infinity. MIT recently published a study of 50 incidents where gas made it into local water supplies.
While QE7 looks great on paper, it has yet to hit the actual monetary data, which has largely been flat. That's because QE7 promises to expand the monetary base far faster than the markets had been discounting. The private sector Purchasing Manager's Index has delivered three consecutive months of upticks.
These acquisitions give them skin in the game, with stakes in oil shale formations in Texas and Louisiana, fields that I once owned myself.They will also get a presence in offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico, an area that was always too rich for my blood, with drilling costs starting at $10 million a well.
Readers delighted in sending me maps of laid up ships with forlorn crews in Singapore harbor, which at the worst, numbered in the hundreds. Petersburg press conference that he was elected to end wars, not start new ones, based on false information, a jab at the originators of the 2002 second Gulf War.However, it's time to use this window to cut our losses on our United States Oil Fund September, 2013 $39-$42 in-the-money bear put spread, which is now out-of-the-money, if just a touch. The sole exception here is the libertarian wing of the party lead by Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, who opposes all wars for cost reasons.More importantly, constitutional law professor Obama is setting an important legal precedent here, requiring a congressional declaration of war on this, and all future, military actions. If a pilot in Syria takes off, then poof, they're gone in 30 seconds.Although the financial markets are expecting immediate action, we may not get it. These happen to be the states that are the biggest contributors of tax revenue to the Treasury. But the actual money in circulation in the broader economy, as measured by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. But the downshift shows you how severe such a slowdown would be, if we ever go over the cliff sometime in the future.There were other one off factors. In every case, it was shown to be the cause of subcontractor incompetence and inexperience, not because of any fundamental flaws with the technology.The move was a crucial step towards turning the US into a major natural gas (UNG) exporter.
The problem is that these partnerships suffer from their guilt by association with Texas Tea, which is notorious for its volatility.
Many blame John Paulsen, one of the world's largest single gold owners, whose flagship gold fund was down 21% in 2012, and has been hit by substantial redemptions for the second year in a row.
There is no better correlation than the one between a growing monetary base and rising prices for the barbarous relic.The rest of the hard asset space did just as well. The new, larger company will earn about 74% of its income from copper and gold mining and 26% from oil and gas.The bears dumped the stock for a number of reasons. It is, in fact, a hybrid that runs on battery power for the first 40 miles, when a weak conventional gasoline engine takes over to deal with "range anxiety." Still, I receive constant emails from drivers who say they absolutely love the cars, with many still driving around on the original year old tank of gas. Long time readers of this letter have already made some serious money in the battery space. The driver here is American fracking technology, which will continue to upend the traditional energy markets for decades to come.
You could almost walk to neighboring Malaysia and not get your ankles wet.For most industries, the economy bottomed shortly thereafter and began a long, slow recovery.
Think of it has folding your hand and losing your ante when the dealer has an ace showing in Texas hold'em.Everything that can go wrong with a trade happened with this one. The United States has not declared war on anyone since it did so against Japan in December, 1941 in the wake of the Pearl Harbor surprise attack.
In fact, the Middle Kingdom is rushing to perfect cheaper CCS technologies, not only for their own use, but also to sell to us.


Is history about to repeat itself?Like most emerging stock markets this year (EEM), Colombia has been beaten like a red headed step child.
The two richest, California and New York get back 78 cents in government spending for every dollar in taxes they pay into the system. Hurricane Sandy put a dent into the economies of the US east coast, especially in the transportation sector.
The company has already contracted to sell 89% of the plants' planned annual output of 16 million tons. Although they have no direct exposure to the price of oil, investors tend to incorrectly classify them as energy stocks and dump them whenever oil falls. The yellow metal still has a huge twelve-year gain, from $270 to $1,667, making it ripe for tax loss selling.There could be deeper reasons far beyond the short-term considerations listed above. Long dormant real estate is finally starting to catch a bid.For the global investor, the implications of a China recovery are huge. The company passed on a special dividend in order to fund the takeovers, because it feels it will get a much greater bang per buck over the long term. And at $39,000, with dealer discounts and tax subsidies, it IS cheap.This is all far more than a race to bring commercial products to the marketplace.
That's because the motor runs at room temperature, compared to 500 degrees for a conventional engine, so the parts last forever. It's just a matter of time before fracking goes mainstream in Europe, especially in the big coal countries of Germany, Poland, and England. My initial assumption that Egypt would go to sleep in the wake of the army massacre of 1,000 protesters proved correct. Every war since then, and there have been more than 20, has been solely at the discretion under the cover of the War Powers Act. Obama is first and foremost a pacifist and needs more than overwhelming evidence to fire a single shot.
I just sent my mother a card for Mothers Day, even though she is 85 and not expected to last much longer. That makes it a prime target for a rotation, should another leg to the "RISK ON" market develop later in the year, as I expect.
Alaska and Hawaii each receive a whopping $7 in spending for each dollar raised, while Washington DC get's a stratospheric $8.
The effects of last summer's drought, which triggered a serious shrinkage in a broad swath of the agricultural sector, were also felt.What traders instead decided to focus on were the impressive strength of the private sector. Buyers include BG Group of the UK, Gas Natural Fenosa of Spain, Gail of India, and Kogas of South Korea. The great thing about these high yields is that you get paid to wait until crude makes a comeback, which it will always do, as long as there is a China.
Last week brought us the first sniff of the greatest reallocation trade of our lifetimes, out of bonds into stocks.
For a start, you want to run out and buy every other quality emerging market out there, including Hong Kong (EWH), Taiwan (EWT), South Korea (EWY), Chile (EWC), Turkey (TUR), and Indonesia (IDX). The premium paid was substantial, and the increased leverage will certainly weaken the balance sheet.The real reason I want to do this trade is that I believe we are not far from seeing a turnaround in the Chinese economy, which has been shrinking for three years. But this is not your father's Russian oil industry.Back in the old days, when my friend, Occidental Petroleum's (OXY) Dr.
I caught a 500% gain by hanging on to Warren Buffet's coat tails with an investment in the Middle Kingdom's Build Your Dreams (BYDDF) four years ago.
Visit the Tesla factory, and you are struck by the fact that there are almost no people, just an army of German robots. Then they can thumb their noses at Russia, a major gas supplier over the last thirty years. At first, my oil short made money, as oil fell from $108 a barrel to $105, taking the (USO) down with it.Then Secretary of State John Kerry made his blockbuster, saber rattling speech, ramping up speculation about a new war in Syria by a quantum leap. Of the last 23 years, America has been at war for 14 years without any official declaration.
I even occasionally escort little old ladies across the street, although this is a holdover from my days as an Eagle Scout.It's just that Ben Bernanke and I don't see eye-to-eye on a lot of important issues. Even during these difficult budget times, new museums are under construction on the Great Mall, as I write this.It's not hard to figure out where all this money is going. Not a bad game to play in a zero return world.To qualify for MLP status, a partnership must generate at least 90 percent of its income from what the Internal Revenue Service deems "qualifying" sources. Combine the Fed action with the possible turnaround in China (FXI) underway, and you could see a sustainable move up in all hard assets, well into next year.Ben Bernanke's surprise move also raises the floor under stocks. Base metals do very well in these conditions, especially copper (CU), and producing companies like Freeport McMoRan (FCX) (click here for "Time to Get Back Into Copper?"). Traders thought as much when they ran the Shanghai stock market up 3% yesterday, the best move in years.Now that the new government is in place, the path is set for them to announce an additional round of stimulus to get the economy back on track. Armand Hammer and Fred Koch were the only Americans running around the Caucasus, oil there was incredibly cheap.
By setting national goals, providing unlimited funding, focusing scarce resources, and letting engineers run it all, China can orchestrate assaults on technical barriers and markets that planners here can only dream about. I followed with a 250% profit in Chile's Sociedad Qimica Y Minera (SQM), the world's largest lithium producer. Few parts mean fewer workers, and lower costs.All of the parts are made at the Fremont, CA plant, eliminating logistical headaches, and more cost. The president is not only asking for belt and braces support for an attack on Syria, but also placing the legal handcuffs on all future warlike presidents.My short position in oil through my bear put spread on the United States Oil Fund (USO) has certainly given me a roller coaster that I had not bargained for.
He also is a lawyer, so he won't move until the needed international legal framework is in place, such as a United Nations resolution.The great irony in all this is that the current crisis has absolutely no impact on the actual supply and demand of oil. On to the balance sheets of the big banks that refuse to lend, where it has sat, frozen in stone.Gold in the past has been resorted to as a traditional inflation hedge. It all confirms my theory that the passage of the presidential election broke the dam for private economy, and got people off their behinds once all the negativity and uncertainty was gone. For many MLPs, these include all manner of activities related to the production, processing or transportation of oil, natural gas and coal.
The robust economic data reports we have witnessed in recent months have been given the juice to continue. A reviving dragon will also create a nice push up for oil prices, which may explain its failure to break down over the past month.The rebirth of China also solves the mystery of why the Australian dollar has been so strong. If so, that would be spectacular news for oil, copper, and gold, all of the new FCX's products.
Tesla's own shares have been the top performer in the US market in 2014, up over 400%.These are not small numbers.
You could even frack in the Middle East.In a crucial news item that wasn't reported nationally, the California legislature voted down a measure to ban hydraulic fracturing in their state.
With massive capital requirements, order times for new ships lasting three years, and hefty cancellation fees common, recovery delays are not what you want to hear about. Since then, it has been all back and fill, based on the totally unpredictable headline du jour, with most of the movement occurring in an untradeable daily gap opening.There are only nine trading days left to expiration on this position. As a hedge fund manager who plays from the short side more often than not when the economy is growing at a paltry 2% rate, I want them to go down. This originally began nearly 100 years ago because the big military bases set up during WWI and WWII could only be built where land was cheap and plentiful. But look at the entire globe, and you can only find double digit price rises in sanction ridden Iran. Businesses suddenly began investing and hiring, while consumers stepped up consuming.What this data tells us is that there will be a sizable postponement of growth from Q4 into Q1, 2013. Rising interest rates is bad news for the yellow metal, as it raises the opportunity cost of owning the stuff.What has made gold particularly devilish to trade in the last quarter is that it snuck out and had a sex change operation when we weren't looking, no doubt covered by Medicare.
When I delivered my webinar this morning, I realized that for the first time in years all of the data points on my "Economy" page were colored green. In the tumultuous October selloff you would have expected the currency down under to nosedive as well.
The Dotcom bust dried up substantial research and development funding for technology for a decade.
I have been an advocate and an enabler of this technology for 40 years, and my obsession has only recently started to pay off big time.We're not talking about a few niche products here. The US government rates the S-1 as the safest car every built, a fact that I personally tested with my own crash.
Ships ordered at the peak of the financing bubble suddenly started showing up in large numbers. That was much more easily found in the middle of nowhere, in the Midwest and the South, rather than on the populous coasts. They have been notable sellers of gold as they attempt to sell oil pay and for imports outside a US dollar based financial system. The Pentagon will ramp up spending once again in the knowledge their budget is secure, at least for the time being. These are all special tax subsidies put into place when oil companies suffered from extremely low oil prices. It reliably traded as a "RISK ON" asset for the first eight months of this year, tracking the S&P 500 tick for tick. I suspect we'll close 2012 with a run at the highs, and possibly climb just short of 1,600 in the (SPX) sometime in Q1.Treasury bonds (TLT) were a bit of a quandary. The Chinese drive for a higher standard of living is irresistible, and that requires enormous amounts of copper for roads, construction, and shipbuilding.
If you don't believe me, just ask Wal-Mart (WMT) and Apple (AAPL).The fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Soviet Union brought many far-reaching, unintended consequences. A ban on government funding of stem cell research, for religious reasons, left us seriously behind in that crucial field. The research boutique, HIS Insights, predicts that electric cars will take over 15% of the global car market, or 7.5 million units by 2020.
As the Golden State is the most anti energy state in the country, this gives the state a flashing green light to move forward against environmentalist opposition. So, the industry remains with excess capacity of 20%, especially in the dry bulk, container, and crude oil tanker segments. Then we got confirmation of the poison gas attack, something you don't want to hear about when you are short oil. All of the other major crude producers in the Middle East are backing US action, except for Iran, a marginal producer at best. I, on the other hand, want bonds to sell off because I know that when the bill comes due for all of this monetary easing, the crash will be momentous.These are not the only matters we differ on. The recipients of all this defense spending is easily found in Kentucky (101st Airborne Division at Fort Campbell, Fort Knox), South Carolina (Parris Island Marine Corp training center), Mississippi (Columbus AFB), Alaska (Elmendorf AFB), Missouri (Whiteman AFB), Maryland (Andrews AFB, the Naval Academy), Texas (Fort Hood), and New Mexico (Los Alamos National Labs). Look anywhere else, and deflation is the scourge of the day, from Japan, to Europe, to the US. Once on the books, they lived on forever.In practice, MLPs pay their investors through quarterly distributions. It suddenly morphed into a "RISK OFF" one when the Fed sprung QE3 on us on September 13.Asset classes do this to us sometimes, which makes predicting their movement even more problematic, and why so few of us actually pull this off, unless they are complete liars.
You would think that $45 billion a month of fresh buying at the long end would send prices soaring.
In now looks like Ausie will trade tick-for-tick with the Chinese economy and tell the rest of the world to sod off. This was happening in the face of steadily rising fuel prices, thanks to events in Iran, Egypt, Libya, and Syria.
If things suddenly go against us, like missiles actually flying, a 1.18% loss could turn into a sickening 10% one very quickly.
In Hawaii (Pearl Harbor, Bellows AFB) and Virginia (Norfolk Naval Shipyard, Quantico) the Navy is responsible for the bulk of the expenditures. Gold doesn't fit in this picture anywhere.Huge buying from China was a major factor in the golden age of the 2000's, which enjoys a strong cultural affinity for all hard assets, especially gold and silver.
Typically, the higher the quarterly distributions paid to LP unit holders, the higher the management fee paid to the general partner. It happens when short-term technical issues overwhelm longer-term fundamental influences, or when there is an epochal sea change in direction.If that is the case, then there will be a better time to own gold in a few months, once the current kumbaya love fest in Washington works its way through the financial system. If there was any further proof needed that the land of Fosters, Penfolds, and Yalumba was a Chinese colony, this is it. A burgeoning global hybrid and electric car industry is also increasing demand for copper.We are at a level in the shares, just above $30, where value players start to come into this name.
The country was also able to modernize its oil industry with extensive American assistance.
Electric cars and their multitude of spin off technologies will become a dominant investment theme for the rest of our lives. This is what the weakness in the price of natural gas is telling you (UNG).We also received a new negative for oil this month, the collapse of the emerging market currencies, stock markets, and bonds, especially the Indian rupee.
The China slowdown also caused scrap metal rates to plummet, so downsizing shippers were paid less for junking their older, smaller, less fuel efficient ships. And with nine days to expiration, there is not enough time for conditions to turn right for us once again.It easier to take a loss when your overall profit reaches another all time high.
Welcome to the oil market.After the weekend's action, the oil market has entirely backed out the Syria gas attack.
That is why oil and gold have been going up in tandem, until recently a rare event.If anything, there is a severe imbalance developing in the crude markets that will soon send prices sharply southward. He can wish this until the cows come home, but he's not going to get them because of the gale force demographic headwinds the country is now facing and the massive deleveraging by the public and private sector. This is why red state representatives in congress are wringing their hands with such distress, as military spending represents such a large proportion of their local GDP. This is what the unremitting rise in share prices is shouting at us.In the end, traders don't really care what the GDP is. The idea is that the GP has an incentive to try to boost distributions through pursuing income-accretive acquisitions and organic growth projects.Because MLPs are partnerships, they avoid the corporate income tax, on both a state and federal basis. Get resolution of the fiscal cliff, the New Year bond to stock reallocation, the next debt ceiling negotiation, and robust Q4 US economic data out of the way, and gold may have a chance to run. The market seems to be focusing on the longer-term inflationary impact of the Fed move, rather than the quantity of paper the government is willing to soak up. Nissan, Toyota, Tesla, and others are all betting their companies that further progress and economies of scale will drive that cost down to below $100 per kWh. This reduces their international purchasing power in US dollar terms, thus raising the cost of oil in local currency terms. American energy independence, thanks to the "fracking" boom, means fewer ships are needed to carry oil from a tempestuous Middle East.It has been the perfect storm of perfect storms. As of now, the Trade Alert service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader is up a hefty 41.48%, thanks to my major short in the Japanese yen.
I was sure we were in for a quiet weekend, as there was no way that the US would attack with UN inspectors still in Syria. Thanks to a triple barrel push of improving economic data, Egypt, and then Syria, Wall Street has built up a record long in the oil futures market of some 1.9 million contracts.
Sure, the post election (theirs, not ours) economy is recovering, but only to an 8% GDP growth rate, not the red hot 13% rate of past years. Instead of getting a form 1099-DIV and the end of the year, you receive a form K-1, which your accountant should know how to handle.
Until then, I prefer to cheer from the sidelines, which is why I stopped out of my long position with aTrade Alert yesterday.I don't expect gold to crash, just to get boring. The 3.30% dividend yield is an additional kicker, more than double the ten year Treasury bond yield. That will make electric cars cheaper than conventional hydrocarbon powered ones by a large margin.
I would hate to lose a quarter of this on a single rogue trade, thanks to some Middle Eastern warlord.I already have plans on how to spend this money, like buying a second Tesla, the four wheel drive SUV model X, which will probably set me back another $100,000. However, all he has to do is make a mere mention of his desires, or even just mention the letter "Q", and asset prices go through the roof, forcing me to stop out of my shorts at losses.
I can almost hear the air going out of gold.The global bid we have seen for almost all risk assets has not exactly drawn buyers to the yellow stuff.
The only problem with this set up is that the partnerships are required to send you a K-1 for every state in which they do business.


The first crude electrical cell was invented by Italian Alessandro Volta in 1759, and Benjamin Franklin came up with the term "battery" after his experiments with brass keys and lightning. As the emerging markets have seen the largest growth in demand for oil in recent years, this can only be bad for prices.In terms of my own trading portfolio, I wanted to have a "RISK OFF" position, like an oil short, to hedge my existing "RISK ON" positions. I am not going to let oil pee on my parade.When war does break out, and then escalates, and we get the spike up to $118 that many are predicting, then you'll see me re-emerge as a seller once again. That is a lot of Texas tea sloshing around the books of hot handed traders.We are just coming to the close of the strongest driving season in 31 years, and demand will soon ebb. This is why I was in such a foul, acrimonious, and detestable mood over the weekend, after stocks blasted through to new all time highs.My problem is that Ben Bernanke isn't the only person who dislikes me. Own enough of these, and your tax return will end up as thick as the Houston telephone book.Additionally, the limited partner (investor) may also record a pro-rated share of the MLP's depreciation on his or her own tax forms to reduce liability.
You can also see this in the Chinese renminbi (CYB), which has been pushing through to new all time highs almost every day (click here for "Chinese Yuan Hits 20 Year High").Be careful not to rush out and buy the same Chinese names that did well in the last China boom, the big exports. The Russian oil industry has become a highly leveraged affair.This is why such relatively minor price declines brought apparently desperate actions by the Russian authorities to prop up the economy. In a desperate attempt to play catch up, President Obama has lavished money on alternative energy, virtually, since the day he arrived in office.
US stock markets could be weak into October, and they will take oil down with them.The energy inventory figures are another enormous tell, which indicate that the industry is choking on excess supplies.
This is the primary benefit of MLPs and gives MLPs relatively cheap funding costs.The tax implications of MLPs for individual investors are complex. The new plays will be centered around companies targeting domestic consumption, seeking to profit from the growth of the Chinese middle class.
Then, oil prices crashed, and the company scrapped the program, a strategy misstep that was to become a familiar refrain.
His original stimulus package included $167 billion for the industry, enough to move hundreds of projects out of college labs and into production. For explanations of the fundamentals here in eloquent and florid detail, please read "Why I Sold Oil" by clicking here and "Why I'm Keeping My Oil Short" by clicking here at.
Better news was the gains I scored in my yen and euro shorts, which both collapsed on the dovish news.So what to do about the (USO) from here? The economies of big states are primarily driven by the private sector, such as in New York (banking, finance, media, telecommunications), Illinois (finance, manufacturing, agriculture), and California (technology, housing, international trade). Now it goes to sleep whenever traders stampede into stocks.Finally, gold has stopped rising because of the advanced age of the bull market. If Thursday morning delivers another five year low in jobless claims, the market will be primed for a hot January nonfarm payroll on Friday. The distributions are taxed at the marginal rate of the partner, unlike dividends from qualified stock corporations.
I'll get you the specific names and ticker symbols, once I have completed my research there.
While I was in Europe, four Russian tour companies were driven into bankruptcy by the banking sanctions, stranding some 10,000 tourists on Mediterranean beaches.Now there is a ban on food imports from Europe, stranding thousands of trucks at the Russian borders. Sony (SNE) took over the lead with nickel metal hydride technology, and owns the industry today, along with Chinese and South Korean competitors. However, in the ultimate irony, much of this money is going to foreign companies, since it is they who are closest to bringing commercially viable products to market.
I think that congress will eventually vote for an attack, providing Obama with the fig leaf he is demanding. Unwind just a portion of the speculative long position in oil, and we could quickly return to the $92-$95 range that prevailed before the multiple crisis.Don't just stop at oil. I doubt we will even notice the sequestration here in the Golden State, unless we turn the TV on, or try to leave. On the other hand, there is no advantage to claiming the pro-rated share of the MLP's depreciation (see above) when held in a tax deferred account, like an IRA or 401k. China has not exactly been at the top of my research pecking order until recently.The return of the China trade does not look like a sure thing, yet.
Russia doesn't grow much food, thanks to their horrendous winters and short growing seasons. Look no further than South Korea's LG, which received $160 million to build batteries for the Volt. Check out those for the (USO) and oil and it very much looks like we have a classic head and shoulders top in place.
Any price tied to business activity in the Middle Kingdom started marching upward in unison, including those for iron ore (BHP), (RIO), coal (KOL), the Australian dollar (FXA), and Chinese and Australian stocks (FXI), (EWA). To encourage tax-deferred investors, many MLP's set up corporation holding companies of LP claims which can issue common equity.Since 2003, MLPs as an asset class have grown astronomically, from $30 billion to over $250 billion, and have also been the best performing asset class in the world over the last 10, 5, and 3 year periods.
Gasoline has been the most efficient, concentrated, and easily distributed source of energy for more than a century. The IRS currently gives buyers of electric cars a $7,500 tax credit on their federal return. That is the straw that breaks the camel's back.The only way I am wrong on my oil call is if the Chinese economy is about to take off like a rocket. He frequently speaks about the need to improve our education system, even though I know he is poised to slash the budget for the Department of Education as part of some deal with the Republicans. The last bull market, which launched when the US went off the gold standard in 1972, lasted only eight years. California buyers get an additional check for $2,500, and get zero emissions commuter stickers which permit single drivers in HOV lanes.Fortunately the US with its massively broad and deep basic research infrastructure, a large military research establishment (remember the old DARPA Net?), and dozens of still top rate universities, is in the best position to discover a breakthrough technology.
You give up some yield here in exchange for a broader diversification of risk across many issues in this quasi index fund. Some of the lost food can be made up with new imports from emerging, non sanctioning economies, but not much.
That is the amount of electrical energy in a litre (0.26 gallons), or kilogram of gasoline expressed in kilowatt-hours.
The Energy Department has financed the greatest burst in inorganic chemistry research in history, with top rate scientists pouring out of leading defense labs at Los Alamos, Lawrence Livermore, and Argonne National Labs.
This enabled the Baltic Dry Index ($BDI), a measure of the cost of chartering bulk carriers for coal, iron ore, wheat, and other dry commodities, to rise some 160% since July. So at this point, I am inclined to hang on, run out the clock, and sing anti war ballads until then.When we do get the next spike in prices, I will sell short again in double the size. Fortunately for me, I wrote off any prospect of getting a retirement check a long time ago and have made other arrangements, like becoming a hedge fund manager. In the meantime, some 350 McDonald's franchises in Russia are trying to figure out how to make Big Macs purely from domestic supplies. There are newly funded teams around the country exploring opportunities in zinc-bromide, magnesium, and lithium sulfur batteries. If anything, the collapse in emerging markets suggest that conditions in the Middle Kingdom are about to get worse before they get better.This is not an ideal place to initiate new shorts, unless you are a died-in-the-wool momentum player. Apparently, it is off to the races once again.I am not normally a person who buys a stock after it has just doubled, unless Costco is running a special on Jack Daniels. Either the payments will be too small for me to live on, subject to a means test that excludes fat cats like myself, or they will be made in worthless Zimbabwean dollars.I got along with former Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, OK, who keeps me on his "must see" list whenever he stops in San Francisco on his way to Beijing to ask to borrow more money. Remember when Armageddon was predicted for the year 2000, but in the end, someone's toaster didn't work in Peoria, Illinois? At least holders of bullion and coins have the consolation that they don't own gold stocks (GDX), which have performed far worse.I don't believe that gold has entered a permanent bear market.
Good luck to that!The thing that really struck me speaking to Russians in Europe this summer was Putin's unbelievably high 85% approval rating (our congress is at 14%!).
A lot of excitement has been generated by lithium-air technology, as well as much controversy.
But we are only one headline away from more bad news from the Middle East, which would deliver an instant $5 pop in oil prices.
But if a share has fallen 99%, a double takes it to down only 98%, leaving it still absurdly cheap. Wall Street is holding a record long in the futures market, which will soon come to grief, once the news flow from the Middle East slows. And that was a really old toaster.This is what the financial markets have been telling us for the past three months. Emerging market central banks still have to triple their holdings to catch up with the asset allocations of their western compatriots. They trotted out the most incredible conspiracy theories which painted them as the injured party.
I am inclined to do so with outright puts only, instead of a put spread to maximize my short-term profits. There are not a lot of people around who read my first book on the Japanese financial system. Notice that, with only four days until the disastrous deadline, the stock markets were breaking to new five-year highs, until they were temporarily delayed by the Italian election. Wan Gang as its Minister of Science and Technology, a brilliant Shanghai engineer and university president, without the benefit of membership in the communist party.Battery development has been named a top national priority in China. That means the market thought all of these guys were going under, which was never going to happen.This is certainly the case with Dry Ships (DRYS), your poster boy for the Greek shipping industry.
There are only four people in US history who can discuss Japanese monetary policy of the 1920's in depth, and do it in Japanese just for laughs (it was clearly too easy, but they had to reflate after the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake. Individuals in emerging markets are still boosting gold holdings, although at a slower marginal rate than in the past. Those would include the ProShares Ultra Short DJ-AIG Crude Oil ETF (SCO) and the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN (DTO).By.
I think that the final end game here is for Texas Tea to grind down to $92 over coming months, a prolonged move that an ETF is better disposed to profit from.
But for the time being, they seem content to sit on low bids around $1,500 and let the market come to them. Wernher von Braun beat the Russians to the moon, proving our Germans were better than their Germans. Notice also that the financial markets are headquartered in states that will be minimally impacted by sequestration cuts.These interstate cash flows go a long way to explain why we have gridlock in Washington. The sanctions coupled with falling oil revenues are starting to have a severe impact on Russian standards of living.
The company's fleet consists of 38 dry bulk carriers, 10 tankers, and has orders for another four ships.It has completed a major refinancing that takes the firm out of the fire and puts it back into the frying pan. It is the status quo that benefits the most from inaction and has the most to lose from change.
But that won't happen until we are well into the 2020's, when a stiff demographic tailwind fans the flames.Until then, the yellow metal could well stay directionless. This should buy (DRYS) some time, while other competitors, like Genco Shipping and Trading (GNK) are expected to go under, removing unwanted overcapacity from the market.
Nationalism is great, but who wants to live on canned food left over from the Soviet Union (yuck!).Putin knows this.
The only question is whether the operating instructions will come in English--or Mandarin.By. It also wisely diversified into offshore oil drilling right at the bottom of the market, picking up a 59% stake in Ocean Rig (ORIG) and its two semisubmersible rigs.
Besides, there are not a lot of people out there who can give him a 40-year view on the global economy, and I am one of them.There are plenty of others who don't think I am so hot.
So to head off the riot, he is going to declare victory in the Ukraine fairly soon, and then take his troops home. It also explains why there is such a massive building boom for new commercial office space in our nation's capital. The web is chocked full of allegations of insider trading, nepotism and self-dealing by senior management. While others in the locker room at my country club are slamming doors, tearing their hair out, and breaking golf clubs in half when they see the price feed on CNBC, I am chirping happily away about selling short at the top.
The Citizen's United ruling, which legalized unlimited anonymous corporate donations, has opened the floodgates for cash to hire new armies of new lobbyists.
We might even luck out and get a written treaty.If that is a case, you can expect global financial markets to rocket. There would me a massive shift of capital out the risk spectrum, out of bonds and into stocks.
This explains why I stopped getting invitations to social dinners ages ago.It's not that my relationship with Ben Bernanke is totally hopeless. Knowing all this, it is sometimes easy for me to get discouraged when contemplating our country's future.It's not like our lives depend on all this extra spending on defense. After all, it is a Greek company.If (DRYS) scares you and it should, there are safer ways to play the rebound. When the demographic picture turns from a headwind to a tailwind and individuals and corporations cease deleveraging and return to re-leveraging, we'll probably be reading from the same page of music. The US has not had an industrial strength enemy since the collapse of the Soviet Union 20 years ago, which is now a faint shadow of its former self.
The Guggenheim Shipping ETF (SEA) offers a broad mix of industry exposure with lower volatility. They just sold us the last of their excess weapons grade plutonium to run our nuclear power plants. It is up only 25% since April.Even in the best-case scenario, shipping will never return to the heady growth rates of the naughts. By then, he probably won't be the Fed governor anymore and I won't care if he likes me or not.There are other Fed governors who are not in the least bit interested in all this quantitative easing malarkey. Al Qaida has been reduced to a few hundred religious fanatics hiding out in Pakistani basements, and a few sleeper cells, with rather short lifespans. The last Cold War drove the Soviet Union broke and Putin definitely has no interest in repeating the exercise.By. They are much more similar in philosophy to Herbert Hoover's Treasury Secretary, Andrew Mellon, who popularized the "let the chips fall where they may" approach to economic policy.
It is modernizing its economic strategy, from a low value added commodity export led one, to a more domestically driven, services oriented approach.
The sequester will bring the first measurable decline in such spending since the peace dividend of the nineties.
Why are we spending so much money without any real enemies?China's military is almost exclusively aimed at controlling its own population.
The one small, second hand aircraft carrier they acquired from the Ukraine is to protect their oil supplies from the Middle East as we withdraw our forces from there.
Hell, they might not even care if I torture small animals, beat children with a switch, and strand little old ladies in the middle of onrushing traffic. Since 1949, China carried out a single invasion only 20 miles into Vietnam, and then retreated after two weeks.I am not alone with these views.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff happen to agree with me, as do the majority of serving generals and admirals, and the CIA.
They would much prefer husbanding scarce resources for cyber warfare, special operations, advanced drones, and training. Blowing money on big-ticket, but useless cold war weapons systems, like nuclear aircraft carriers and submarines, and the F-22 and X-35 fighters, just to boost employment in favored congressional districts, is the greater threat to our national security. Talk to anyone who has ever been in the military, and the tales of waste and inefficacy on an industrial scale abound.Imagine if, instead of committing $1 trillion to the war in Iraq, we had spent it on cyber warfare? It boggles the mind.Raise such concerns about this unnecessary spending, and you get called a pacifist, a coward, and a traitor. I have been assisting the US military on and off for 40 years, from intelligence, to flying hopelessly risky missions, to grief counseling of Marine widows, orphans, and parents.
Call someone else a pacifist.I think when sequestration starts on Friday, I'll go for a long hike.



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