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Author: admin, 09.08.2014. Category: Small Goals 2016

HUD determined that it could be a Fair Housing Act violation if landlords categorically exclude anyone with a criminal record because it could have a disparate impact against racial minorities. The resolution also discourages landlords from excluding a person from housing on the basis of arrests without conviction because an arrest alone does not provide proof of crime, nor can a landlord determine a potential risk to resident safety and protections of property. Nick Straley of Columbia Legal Services said, “This resolution demonstrates the Council’s recognition that promoting housing opportunities for people who have paid their debt to society protects public safety. Council also endorsed Seattle Office of Housing guidelines that landlords should consider when selecting tenant screening agencies.
Efrem McGaughey, a formerly incarcerated individual and member of the Tenants Union of Washington State, said, “By affording formerly incarcerated people who are working to change their lives a chance to find housing without facing prejudice, we are strengthening our community as a whole. The Commercial Affordability Taskforce is expected to present its findings by October 1, 2016. This was a hate crime and an act of domestic terrorism, just like the mass shooting perpetrated by a white supremacist at an African-American church in Charleston one year ago this month. At last night’s memorial vigil at Cal Anderson Park I was moved by the diversity of the crowd, the heartfelt emotions, and the many discussions about pursuing actions that will make a difference.
In December 2012, following the horrific Sandy Hook killings, I proposed several steps we could pursue as a state to reduce gun violence. I have yet to hear a legitimate reason for any civilian to own an assault rifle — a weapon designed to kill at a mass scale. This morning, we were all devastated to learn of the horrific terrorist attack on the LGBTQ community at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando, Florida. For months, Republicans and the right wing all over the country have engaged in the vilification of our trans community members. Trans Pride is a celebration, but it is also a necessary and bold political act of defiance in a society that still largely refuses to allow people to define themselves as they are.
We need to build the struggle for a world free from violence and bigotry, for which we need mass movements against this exploitative and divisive system.
Last month King County Councilmember Jeanne Kohl-Welles and I went to San Francisco with a number of local friends to learn more about how San Francisco is assisting people who are living on the streets and struggling with drug addiction. National best practices can be emulated here in Seattle.  Combining a “housing first” approach with a public health response to addiction will provide us effective tools to address the needs of people living unsheltered. I had three important takeaways from San Francisco.  I’ll write first about my experience at San Francisco’s Navigation Center, followed by installments about Public Health’s Integrated Buprenorphine Intervention Services (IBIS), and the Department of Public Works’ Pit Stops.
The first step to end homelessness is to provide people with housing and appropriate supportive services.
New housing is welcome, but for people who are homeless, the wait is too long.  People who are unsheltered must be offered support soon. The Navigation Center is made from school portables and offers 24 hour shelter and wrap around services to residents. While we work toward this goal of permanent housing, we also need to recognize that we must move faster to help people who are struggling to survive TODAY. Low-Barrier to Entry: The Navigation Center offers “radical hospitality,” meaning those who are invited to stay may do so even if they have substance abuse issues or untreated mental illness. Services Onsite: Individual needs are accommodated by staff and everyone is expected to be working toward a healthier life style. Pets are welcomed because “pets bring more love than not.” Dog food is donated, and the near-by animal shelter offers shots, health care and licensing. Please take this survey so we can learn from you what businesses in your neighborhood you’ve loved and lost or fear may be in peril. You may have heard that, upon the City Council’s request in a 2015 Budget Statement of Legislative Intent, the Mayor convened the Commercial Affordability Taskforce.  The Task Force is formed to make recommendations on how to address the rising cost of commercial space for small businesses, develop opportunities to activate public spaces for entrepreneurs, and identify strategies to expand economic development throughout Seattle. Seattle is known for its unique neighborhoods, each home to a thriving landscape of locally-owned businesses that occupy an essential role in the stories and rituals that define the city. The Commercial Affordability Taskforce will submit their recommendations by the end of September 2016 for consideration.  My hope is that with this effort we build the support and interest in considering a Legacy Business Program. I’ve been receiving increasing reports of loud noise from motorcycles, cars, music, as well as dangerous driving including speeding, and some drag racing along Harbor Avenue, Alki, and the part of Beach Drive just south of the lighthouse. I’ve been in touch with the Seattle Police Department about this, and the SW Crime Prevention Coordinator indicated SW Precinct Captain Davis is working to see what resources he can put toward this area. I’ve also sent a letter to SDOT asking that they consider traffic calming measures to address drag racing on Beach Drive during the warm weather months; the neighborhood has applied for a Neighborhood Parks and Street Fund grant, but awards aren’t granted until late 2016. On a related note, after a Seattle Times article about 911 response times came out earlier this year, I asked SPD for beat-level response times for District 1.
It’s very concerning to me that the 911 response time to Alki is 12 and a half minutes, a clear outlier from our standards in other SPD beats.  Addressing 911 response times, patrol operations, and proactive policing are *all* important to a comprehensive public safety approach and to do all well, we’ll need more officers, which I support.
Last week I went on a tour with SDOT to see a number of projects in, and important to, District 1. In West Seattle, we went to 35th Avenue SW; the Delridge Greenway, a Safe Routes to School project by Sanislo Elementary, a potential crosswalk expansion by Westwood Village, the West Seattle Bridge corridor, and the 5-way intersection near the Chelan Cafe where Marginal Way, Spokane, Delridge, Chelan and the Terminal 5 access road come together. In South Park, we saw the 8th Ave South pedestrian safety project and street tree inventory, and South Monroe Street.
In SODO, we saw where the Lander Street Overpass is planned for construction; the 100 daily train crossings result in five hours of closures daily, which can affect north-south traffic between West Seattle and Downtown.
Here are a few updates on a couple of these projects: SDOT is scheduling a community meeting for 35th, which could be in July. In South Park on 8th Avenue South, SDOT and their Urban Forestry Division are implementing a creative solution to the problem of roots impacting mature street trees, by creating a pedestrian corridor with a barrier adjacent to the curb. Earlier this year SDOT published their first quarterly district reports for Seattle’s seven Council districts. This is an example of departments adapting to City Council districts, as adopted by Seattle’s voters.
There will be free food for the first 200 people, and I hear there may be locally hand-made tamales! SEATTLE – Council unanimously adopted the “Carl Haglund Law” today, which prohibits rent increases on properties with unsafe housing code violations.
Councilmember Sawant added, “I urge anyone who faces substandard housing conditions to contact my office. Osman Osman, tenant activist, addressing a rally outside of Carl Haglund’s office in October 2015. After more than a half-year of organizing, tenant activists and housing justice organizers have won a major victory with the unanimous passage of the Carl Haglund Law. We will need to work together, form more tenants unions, and continue to organize and build our movement to shift the balance of power away from big landlords, slumlords, and Wall Street speculators to tenants and ordinary working people in Seattle. My Affordable Housing, Neighborhoods and Finance Committee will receive an introductory briefing about this proposal on Wednesday, June 15.
If you operate a short term rental out of your primary residence (including a connected in-law apartment or backyard cottage), you will be able operate all year long. If you operate a short term rental in a property that is not your primary residence, you cannot operate year-round; you will be limited at 90 nights a year. For those who operate past 90 nights in your primary residence, you will need to go online and secure a new regulatory license.
Overall, these are very modest regulations: we estimate about 80% of short term rental operators will see no new regulations at all under this proposal. These proposed regulations focus narrowly on the commercial operators that take advantage of home-sharing platforms to exacerbate our housing crisis. If you want to read more details about our approach, you can find them on the City Council’s website. Inevitably, no citywide policy can best meet the individual needs of every short term rental operator. SDOT has released its response to the West Seattle Bridge Council Statement of Legislative Intent (SLI) 2015 Council budget action, and submitted a request to release $100,000 reserved for studying physical and operational improvements.
The report notes the $500,000 approved by the Council in 2015 for Intelligent Transportation Systems improvements will mostly be finished by 2016, with the rest scheduled for 2017. Also included are cost estimates and grant application status for the South Lander Street Grade Separation and RR Safety Project.
SDOT proposes to exclude some projects from future whitepaper reports, including 4th Ave Transit Ramp to Spokane Viaduct, Delridge Way Rapid Ride Transit, and Sound Transit expansion (which is subject to a public vote).
In a separate request to allow $100,000 in spending to proceed, SDOT proposed to hire a consultant to complete a feasibility report by the end of 2016.
Seattle has approximately 148,000 rental housing units and approximately 10 percent have moderate to severe physical problems according to the 2009 American Survey. My first amendment did not change the effect of the proposed bill, but makes it explicit to tenants and landlords when they can lawfully withhold payment of the rent increase. My second amendment added language to define how the City will work with tenants when the Seattle Department of Construction and Inspection (SDCI) is notified by tenants that a landlord has given them a 3 day pay or vacate when the rent increase has been lawfully delayed. Lastly, I supported Councilmember Sawant’s amendment which increased the time period given to the tenant after receiving a rent increase to respond to the landlord in writing from 10 days to either 30 or 60 days, depending on the effective date of the rent increase period.
My anger boiled over on December 14, 2012 when a young man shot 20 children and 6 adults at Sandy Hook Elementary, and later turned the gun on his mother and himself.  I grieved for the families and could only begin to imagine the empty places in their hearts that might never heal. I felt this had to be a turning point for us as a nation.  I wondered how we could live at peace within our communities when people with grudges can readily obtain weapons and wipe out a class of innocent children?
This week I am proud to be working with Mayor Murray and my Council colleagues in announcing our next step locally to reduce gun violence that will have national implications. Great thanks to Rabbi Daniel Weiner who first brought the Do Not Stand Idly By campaign to my attention.  This campaigns calls on cities across the nation to utilize their purchasing power to demand more of gun manufacturers. Second, our resolution will update the city’s  purchasing process requiring companies wishing to sell firearms or ammunition to the city provide a copy of any firearms compliance documents from the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF). Third, this resolution will restrict the sale of surplus Seattle Police Department weapons to law enforcement entities authorized to possess firearms. Fourth, will serve as a model for procurement strategy for other cities across our state and nation to promote another step for community safety. The following article was sent out in my City View Newsletter, which you can sign up to receive here.
Ella’s and Olivia’s zip codes are different by just one digit; their likely life trajectories are worlds apart.
Sadly, and to our long-term detriment, not every child born in Seattle receives the same opportunity for a strong and fair start in life, as the stories of these two composite children illustrate. And that’s why we urgently need a new, more intentional, more focused, and more strategic approach to how we address the inequality of opportunity that is holding so many of our children behind.
What’s most troubling about the new research, however, is that America’s opportunity gap is both larger and more persistent than the gap found in Australia, Canada, or the United Kingdom, three peer countries with a common language, economic system, and culture. According to WaKIDS, our state’s observational assessment of kindergarten readiness, only 40% of children from low-income families entering kindergarten in Seattle Public Schools last fall demonstrated readiness in all six domains (social-emotional, physical, cognitive, language, literacy, and mathematics). These same extreme childhood poverty areas also have some of the Seattle School District’s worst performing schools, a fact reported by the District itself in their annual ratings of school performance.
The pressing question we need to address is: how are some schools in our high poverty areas doing a good job and others failing? This is the greatest problem with public education in our city today: The excellence of some schools is not replicated among all schools for the benefit of all children.
A strong public education system is supposed to be the great equalizer, the springboard to a successful life, the key strategic investment the public makes to give every child the strong and fair start they deserve. If Ella does not read at grade level by the third grade, her chances of graduating from high school fall dramatically. Nearly one quarter of all students in Seattle Public Schools will not graduate in June from high school on time with their classmates. By the time Ella and Olivia make it through our public education system, they will likely end up in very different places.
So, it’s time to rethink our approach to our decades-long deficit of opportunity for many of our children. Here is a continuum of care we can provide so Ella, and the many other children just like her, can have the same opportunity as Olivia. For two and three year olds there is the Parent-Child Home Program (PCHP), an evidence-based program that focuses on literacy through twice weekly, 30-minute home visits for two full years. For three and four year olds we know from an abundance of solid evidence that the single most productive investment we can make as a city is to provide high quality preschool like the Seattle Preschool Program (SPP).
All of these programs deliver culturally-relevant services, an important piece to ensure that their benefits are distributed equitably. The Sound Transit Board has announced a revised ST3 plan that reduces, by three years, the projected timeline to bring light rail to West Seattle.
The revised plan also accelerates light rail to Ballard by three years, adds a new station to the existing line at South Graham Street five years sooner, and provides funding for completion of a station at NE 130th Street.
Earlier this week the City Council passed a resolution  encouraging Sound Transit to accelerate the schedule and provide ST3 transit service as quickly as possible.
Many thanks to the leadership of Board Chair Dow Constantine, my Council colleague and Board Member Rob Johnson, and Councilmember Mike O’Brien for his collaborative work in developing the Council resolution. The Sound Transit Board is expected to take final action to send the ST3 package to the General Election ballot next month. On May 3, the Mayor released his proposed 20-year update to the Seattle Comprehensive Plan.
A key issue for me during this comprehensive planning process is commit to meaningfully addressing displacement. In 2015, former Councilmember Licata and Councilmember O’Brien worked hard to ensure that the office of Department of Planning and Development (DPD) defined displacement and conducted a displacement risk analysis for the 4 Comp Plan alternatives being considered at that time. The involuntary relocation of current residents or businesses from their current residence. Here is how the Displacement Risk Analysis was done for those four alternatives, the result being a CompPlan recommendation that includes strategies to mitigate displacement, in this case the above mentioned Equitable Development Implementation Plan. This was an important step forward, but the commitment to doing this work must be ongoing, not one time, for one plan. Is the intensity of expected growth in particular urban centers and villages likely to have an impact on displacement of marginalized populations? Is the intensity of expected growth in particular urban centers and villages likely to have an impact on marginalized populations’ access to key determinants of physical, social, and economic well-being? What strategies and levels of investment are necessary to mitigate the impacts of expected growth and to maximize opportunities for equitable outcomes?
Over the next several months, the Council will be reviewing the Mayor’s recommended CompPlan 2035. In these frequent observations, we look at aspects of topical issues related to our research programme. The Great Recession triggered the two largest annual falls in real government receipts since at least 1956.
Corporation tax always moves with the economic cycle, and since 2008 receipts have been substantially hit by weak profitability in the banking sector. More broadly, the new taxes, which also include a diverted profits tax, an apprenticeship levy and a sugar levy, have tended to be introduced hastily and without consideration of the full set of effects.
A special issue of Fiscal Studies launched today shows how wealth is concentrated among a small number of households, and is much more concentrated than incomes.
In fact, as the papers published in the volume show, we have been learning a lot about the wealth distribution in recent years, especially following the introduction of the Wealth and Assets Survey. The rest of this observation highlights what we know about the wealth distribution in the UK. The least wealthy one percent of households (the 1st percentile) have negative net wealth (i.e. The wealthiest 1% of households hold about 20% of household wealth, the top 5% of hold approximately 40%, and the top 10% hold over 50% of wealth (see Table 1 of Alvaredo et al.). Crawford and Hood, use the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (a survey that contains a representative sample of individuals in England aged 50 or over), to investigate the effect that the receipt of inheritances has on the distribution of wealth.
Inheritances are smaller in absolute terms for those lower down the wealth distribution, but they are more important relative to other wealth holdings. However, this inequality-reducing impact of inheritances and gifts shrinks (or even disappears) when public and private pensions are included in the measure of household wealth. Measuring the wealth distribution is difficult and there is value in using all available data sources (survey data, data from estates, data from capital income etc.) to obtain the best possible understanding of the wealth distribution. In a new report and accompanying interactive online tool out today IFS researchers provide an explanation of how the EU budget works, its size, where revenues come from and what the main areas of spending are. This is not an estimate of how much stronger the public finances would be if we were to leave the EU.
The spending side of the EU budget is dominated by two spending areas which together account for over three quarters of the budget: Structural and cohesion funds on the one hand, and agriculture and rural development on the other, each account for about 38% of total EU spending. Cohesion funds go to the poorer EU nations – those with GNI per capita below 90% of the average.
Structural funds go to regions within countries according to how poor they are relative to the EU average, but also according to levels of employment and population sparsity. The agriculture and rural development budgets remain large, though they have been shrinking as a fraction of the total budget.
The UK gets relatively little from these budgets, partly because we have relatively little farmland given the size of our population and partly because, for historical reasons, we get lower payments per hectare of farmland than many other countries. There is clearly room for reform and improvement of the budget and budget processes on both the spending and revenue side.
This report was produced with funding from the Economic and Social Research Council’s The UK in a Changing Europe initiative. However, the simplicity of the new system has been at best misunderstood and at worst overstated. These arrangements for those who have been contracted out are a necessary complexity of the transition process.
There are sensible reasons why not everyone is entitled to the same state pension amount, but this is likely to still come as a surprise to many people.
The new pension system is simpler than the old one even in the short run, but in a more subtle way. But continued complexity is unavoidable in the short-run, as people are moved over from the old system to the new. In Budget 2016 the Chancellor announced a 'soft drinks industry levy' due to take effect from April 2018.
New analysis by IFS researchers, published as an IFS Briefing Note today, shows over 90% of households purchase more than the recommended share of their calories as added sugar and carbonated and non-carbonated soft drinks account for 17% of added sugar purchases. The case for government intervention to reduce sugar intake is that there are costs associated with consumption that are not taken into account by the individual when choosing what to eat. The effectiveness of the tax in reducing sugar intake will depend on how strongly people switch from the products that are taxed, and, crucially, what products they switch to buying instead.
A tax on the sugar in soft drinks targets only one source of added sugar; a broader based tax on all sources would likely lead to larger reductions in dietary sugar.
The Scottish Government’s Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) estimates the overall levels of government revenues and spending in Scotland and the implicit budget deficit or surplus in the previous year.
Since our last projections were made the OBR has revised its forecasts, with the UK deficit now forecast to be a little higher in the period from 2016-17 to 2018-19. However in the case of Scotland, our projections are for a larger budget deficit in each and every year. The estimates of Scotland’s budget deficit in 2013-14 contained in GERS 2014-15 were higher than those in the previous edition of GERS, reflecting upwards revisions to estimates of government spending in Scotland. Oil and gas revenues are now forecast to be lower, following further falls in expected oil prices, and cuts to the tax rates levied on oil and gas producers. Declines in oil and gas prices, profits and investment also mean that Scotland’s economy has grown less quickly than previously projected. The Table also quantifies the differences between the projected Scottish budget deficits and the OBR’s forecasts for the UK as a whole. Scotland is largely insulated from the consequences of the substantial gap between the government revenues it generates and the government expenditure undertaken in or on behalf of Scotland. Figures on the Scottish deficit would be much more important if it became fully responsible for managing its own public finances. However, it is important to realise that our projections are calculated on the same basis as GERS, which allocates to Scotland a population-based share of spending on things like defence and interest payments on the UK’s national debt.
An independent Scotland might have been able to negotiate a good deal on the share of the UK’s debt it took on.
Independence would also, in principle, give the Scottish Government more freedom to tax and spend more or less, which could have implications for the Scottish budget deficit. Of course if oil prices and production had risen rather than fallen, rather than revising down earlier revenue forecasts, the OBR would be revising them up. Having said this, it’s important to remember revenues can come in ahead of forecasts too. Onshore taxes are projected on the basis that the amount paid per person in Scotland grows in line with forecast growth in onshore revenues per person for the UK as a whole. The same basic set of assumptions was used in our last projections too, although these were, of course, based on GERS 2013-14 and the figures available in the OBR’s March 2015 EFO. In broad terms income inequality is lower than before the recession as increasing levels of employment have helped those towards the bottom of the income distribution and falling real wages have hit those in work, including higher earners. The direct effect of government tax and benefit policy, on the other hand, has been to take money from those working age benefit recipients towards the bottom of the income distribution.
The lighter dotted line shows our projections of what will happen to incomes over the next five years. The extent to which changes in the overall economy can be attributed to government policy is an open question.
The long-run impact of planned changes over the course of this parliament follows a similar pattern, for a similar set of reasons. So the income distribution has narrowed, but tax and benefit changes planned for this parliament will likely help take it back to something like pre-recession levels.
The UK and Scottish Governments have so far failed to agree the new 'fiscal framework' that must accompany the transfer of tax and welfare powers recommended by the Smith Commission and set out in the Scotland Bill.
We find that there are clear rationales behind the positions of both the UK and Scottish governments. We also find that the recent 'compromise' proposal from the UK government represents a significant move towards the Scottish Government's position - but that the two sides remain some way apart on how differences in population growth between Scotland and the rest of the UK (rUK) should be reflected in the block grant adjustment (BGA) indexation method. The Scottish Government’s position is that 'no detriment' applies on an ongoing basis.
This leads it to favour the indexation method known as Per Capita Indexed Deduction (PCID), where each year the BGA is increased or decreased by the rate of change of devolved revenues in rUK adjusted to account for the relative change in population between Scotland and rUK.


The reason for this relates to the continued use of the Barnett Formula to determine Scotland’s block grant.
This is important because when the BGA is initially set, it will take account of the fact that Scotland raises less income tax per capita than rUK.
One implication of the LD approach is that there would be no further redistribution of income tax revenues from rUK to Scotland. However, another implication of this approach is that it sets a particularly high bar for Scottish revenue growth if the Scottish budget is to keep pace with what it would be without devolution of income tax. In an earlier paper published last November we showed that the difference in the amount of money available to the Scottish government under the PCID and LD approaches could easily differ by over a billion a year after just a decade or so.
In an attempt to reach a compromise, the UK Government has put forward a new proposal that moves significantly towards the Scottish Government's preferred approach. Looking at income tax only, if revenues grow at the same rate per capita in Scotland and rUK, then the Scottish Government would be no better or worse off under their proposals than without any devolution of income tax alone. While the UK government has made significant concessions from its initial position, there are still hundreds of millions of pounds a year to play for. David Bell and David Eiser are at the University of Stirling and the Centre on Constitutional Change. This analysis and accompanying paper was supported by funding from the Nuffield Foundation. In an attempt to shed some light on these issues, a new paper by IFS researchers published today sets out how the current tax system seeks to tax corporate profits, what problems this can lead to and how the OECD’s two year Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project has sought to prevent tax avoidance. Multinationals operate across tax jurisdictions and create profits from activities in many countries. Multinationals are in a good position to be able to employ hordes of tax advisors that help them to conclude any uncertainty in way that leads to lower tax bills, and to take advantage of any loopholes to avoid tax.
If the outcomes produced by the current tax rules are deemed "derisory” then there are at least two options that are more helpful than complaining that firms are behaving badly.
First, governments could improve the current tax rules to prevent certain avoidance behaviours. Second, it is open to government to pursue a much more radical course of action: to scrap the corporate tax system as we currently know it and write a new one that better serves our objectives.
ICAEW is a founder member of Chartered Accountants Worldwide and the Global Accounting Alliance.
We are delighted to have produced this year’s Green Budget in association with ICAEW and with funding from ICAEW and the Nuffield Foundation. As in the last parliament, grants to councils are set to be cut substantially over the next 4 years.
But councils also have other sources of revenue: they retain a portion of business rates revenues and levy and retain council tax, and taken together these are a much bigger source of revenue than grants from DCLG.
Looking at how much councils will have to spend in total, including these additional sources of revenue, the cuts will be around 7% in real terms over the next four years. These figures are national averages though, so how might the cuts affect different councils?
Note: Greater London Authority non-police, non-fire spending power allocated to London councils in proportion to population.
But this pattern is set to change because of a change in the way DCLG allocates cuts to grants across councils. This means, looking ahead over the next 4 years, cuts to spending power will be much more evenly distributed across councils than they were over the last parliament – as shown in Figure 2. Why is a bigger squeeze on poorer councils still happening if DCLG is now accounting for differences in reliance on grant funding? Over the last few years, councils wanting to raise council tax by more than 2% have had to call a referendum. In Washington State, African Americans are four percent of the population but account for 18 percent of the state’s prison and jail population. Categorical bans on all people with criminal records is bad policy, increases recidivism rates and violates anti-discrimination laws.
Unclear, uninformed, or inaccurate information could be used to decline tenants.  The suggested methods for selecting screening agencies would make it more likely that landlords would use consistent and accurate information to consider a tenant, preventing future fair housing claims.
The people of Washington overwhelmingly passed universal background checks after the Legislature failed to act. I yearn for a cultural change in how our members of Congress and our representatives in Olympia view the role of guns in our society.
Indeed, we did not even have time to come to terms with this loss before news broke of another would-be mass killer in Los Angeles. This vitriolic and unrelenting campaign has reinforced and strengthened the most bigoted groups and segments of society. In a Housing First model, endorsed by the United States Interagency Council on Homelessness (USICH), people are able to stabilize and work on the other struggles they face such as unemployment, addiction, or behavioral health concerns. They need what many of us take for granted, a safe place to sleep and store their possessions, treatment for illnesses, and access to bathrooms, showers, and meals. Unfortunately, becoming housed can be very difficult and requires navigating through complex systems-housing services, treatment facilities, health benefits and employment searches, each of which can be filled with hurdles and barriers that can seem impossible while homeless.
The four rules keep the community safe, only 17 people had been asked to leave at the 6-month mark. I am excited that the Mayor has taken steps to prioritize creating something similar to the Navigation Center. Finding ways to help Seattle’s small businesses survive this period of rapid economic growth is important to address the threats that can lead to the displacement of small businesses. These bars, restaurants, cafes, and shops have attracted locals and visitors alike for a taste of the city’s unique character and sense of community.  One way that the City works to help empower business owners is through the “Only in Seattle” program. I’ve asked SDOT to consider community suggestions for what to analyze in the 1-year review report. If you have any ideas about what else could be included in future reports, please let me know and I can inquire with SDOT about including it. The picnic returns with many familiar faces such as DJ Viquez from Neighbors on Capitol Hill, Isabella who will be enchanting us with her drag queen magic again, the South Park Arts Council will feature a kids art table, and the South Park Library will be here with the latest summer reading. The legislation, sponsored by Councilmember Kshama Sawant, comes as a result of months of organizing from tenant activists and housing justice leaders.
This bill will ban rent hikes in buildings with code violations, a horrendous practice that has been legal and all-too-common. I want to thank everyone who fought in this struggle.
We have taken a balanced approach that recognizes the benefits platforms like Airbnb or VRBO create for Seattle residents, while also attempting to curb the growing commercialization of this industry. This allows considerably more flexibility than the regulations in many other cities, which often include a hard cap on the total number of nights.
This limitation will provide a financial incentive for property owners to move these units back to the long-term market, making Seattle housing available for Seattleites.
By comparison, the City of Los Angeles recently announced a proposal that requires a special license for activity undertaken in the upper-left box in this table (by primary residents under 90 nights a year) and prohibits all activity in the other three boxes. The proposed regulations attempt to recognize both the benefits and challenges offered by short term rentals. The SLI grew from the West Seattle Bridge-Duwamish Waterway Corridor Whitepaper commissioned by former Councilmember Tom Rasmussen.
In addition, SDOT added four projects from after the publication of the whitepaper in 2015, including installing additional locational markers on the bridge. Of note is that the West Seattle Bridge carried an average of 107,300 vehicles per weekday, and 29,300 transit riders.
The online open house gives an overview of the process, options in the DEIS, and provides a place to comment as well as sign up to receive email updates on T5.
During the Affordable Housing, Neighborhood and Finance Committee we discussed and voted on the Tenant Protection Ordinance (CB 118678). To address this concern, I proposed two amendments to safeguard tenants if they were to face this form of retaliation. It’s important to know that tenants have the right to report any housing code violations anytime. I’ve read that this week’s shooting on the UCLA campus was the 186th shooting on a school campus since Sandy Hook. She lives with her family in Seattle zip code 98118 in the Rainier Beach neighborhood in the city’s far southeast corner. She lives in Seattle zip code 98117 in the Ballard neighborhood at the opposite northwest corner of the city.
The so-called American dream is just not available to all of our children, and it hasn’t been for a very, very long time. As the map below shows, neighborhoods with childhood poverty rates of 40% or higher—meaning 40% or more of the children under age 18 in these areas are in families below the federal poverty level—are clustered in the south end, to the east of downtown, and in the north near Lake City. Look where the Level 1 and Level 2 schools are located—exactly where childhood poverty is concentrated. How can we take the exceptional work being done by teachers and support staff in the higher performing schools and replicate it in our lowest performing schools? Her chances of finding a good-paying job are slim; a recent study shows that by 2020, 7 out of 10 jobs in Washington State will require some level of post-secondary education. It’s time to redirect public dollars to those programs that will actually make a significant difference for our kids.
Proven home-visitation programs like the Nurse Family Partnership (NFP) for first-time low-income parents beginning in pregnancy and continuing until their child is two years of age lead to better health, reduced emergency room visits, improved education outcomes, and reduced criminal justice system involvement. The outcomes are amazingly strong: better kindergarten readiness and higher reading and math abilities in third grade compared to children not enrolled in the PCHP. Who wouldn’t want these life-changing results for our kids: higher likelihood of reading at grade level in the third grade, higher high school graduation rates, higher college entrance and graduation, better health, and higher earning power as working adults. And supporting families of color early allows for a stronger connection and relationship between those families and our public education system, which too often disciplines kids of color at disproportionate rates.
The City anticipates that by 2035 the city will have 120,000 more people, 70,000 more housing units and 115,000 more jobs. This is a different phenomenon than when property owners voluntarily sell their interests to capture an increase in value.
Economic displacement occurs when residents and businesses can no longer afford escalating rents or property taxes. Yet, by the end of the decade, tax receipts as a share of national income are due to return to almost their pre-recession level. Tonight, the IFS and the Chartered Institute of Taxation will hold a debate – ‘Mind the Gaps? Compared with 2007–08, the taxman looks set to raise more from VAT but less from other indirect taxes, about the same from personal income taxes but with more of that coming from the highest earners, less from the main property taxes and substantially less from corporation tax.
Whether these changes have been part of a clear and coherent overarching strategy is, to put it kindly, unclear. Revenues from other indirect taxes have fallen, largely because fuel duty has been consistently frozen at 2011 levels. This increased reliance on a small number of income tax payers follows a longer-run trend that was driven largely by above-average increases in top incomes. The risks to revenue streams are currently larger than usual: there is still uncertainty about the strength of the recovery, it is difficult to forecast the receipts from new taxes and there is policy risk in the sense that the government may choose to deviate from the assumptions embedded in forecasts.
Younger generations are on course to have less wealth at each point in life than earlier generations and inheritances do little to even out wealth holdings. But this survey cannot tell us much about the top 1% who hold around 20% of household wealth. The household population is divided into 100 groups– and is ordered from those with the least wealth (those on the left) to those with the most. Household wealth comprises gross financial wealth, gross housing wealth, private pension wealth less mortgage and non-mortgage debt. The Gini coefficient (a summary measure for how unequal a distribution is) is 0.64 for wealth.
These authors also find that household wealth in the UK has become more concentrated since the turn of the century. These increases are largely driven by increases in pension wealth; average household wealth held outside pensions fell in real terms between these years, except for the youngest households. The impact of transfers on the distribution of this broader measure of wealth gives a better indication of the impact of transfers on lifetime resources. Alvaredo, Atkinson and Morelli conclude (and we agree) that data on wealth in the UK and elsewhere are in need of substantial and continued investment if researchers are to be able to communicate firm conclusions to policymakers about trends in the wealth distribution. That would depend in part on the deal reached with EU – it is possible that an alternative arrangement of relations with the remaining EU countries would involve the UK continuing to make significant contributions to the EU Budget. While there is a rational process in place to determine its size and allocation it is, perhaps inevitably, subject to considerable political horse trading between countries. Nearly three quarters comes simply from GNI based contributions – that is countries contribute according to their Gross National Income.
Given the way the EU is funded they, alongside the structural funds which go to poorer regions, ensure that the EU budget is redistributive from richer countries such as the UK to poorer countries, largely in Eastern and Southern Europe. Relative to other rich countries the UK looks like it should do relatively well from these funds because it has some really quite poor regions such as West Wales and the Valleys and Cornwall.
They have also been reformed such that they no longer directly subsidise production – we no longer create wine lakes and butter mountains. It was, in large part, because of these relatively low receipts that the UK negotiated for and obtained its rebate back in the 1980s.
But since the overall fiscal flows between the UK and the EU are relatively small – our gross contribution is around 2% of public spending, our net contribution around 1% - the scale of the benefits to the UK from improving the budget processes should not be overestimated.
First, it will be more generous to many of those approaching retirement who have spent time self-employed or out of the labour market for reasons such as caring for children or other adults, and who accrued lower state pension entitlements under the old system as a result.
Our analysis suggests that 43% of those reaching the state pension age between 6 April 2016 and 5 April 2020 are likely to receive a higher state pension under the new system than under the old system. These people will have their state pension reduced in recognition of the lower contributions that they paid. It would have been very generous to these people not to reduce their state pension in recognition of the lower contributions they made as a result of contracting out. After 6th April, DWP will be informing all individuals of their 'foundation amount' – that is, how much state pension they would be entitled to now if they undertook no further activity.
There is a considerable risk of disillusionment as people start claiming pension incomes this year. Households with children obtain around 50% more of their added sugar from soft drinks, compared with households with no children.
As is the case with alcohol consumption, these costs include publicly funded health costs of treating diet-related disease or unanticipated future health problems. This gives the chancellor time to adjust the structure of the tax to make sure it better targets the sugar content of products. For simplicity we refer to a negative net fiscal balance as a budget deficit and a positive net fiscal balance as a budget surplus. This reflects lower underlying revenue growth due to a weaker economic outlook, and a slower pace of spending cuts than planned back in Spring 2015.
This higher level of government spending is estimated to have persisted in 2014-15, and then feeds into our projections for 2015-16 and future years. This means that a given cash deficit represents are larger share of the, now smaller, economy.
This is because the Scottish Government gets most of its funding in the form of a block grant from the UK government, and the UK government uses revenues from across the UK to pay for non-devolved items like social security benefits and defence. The projections also assume Scotland’s onshore revenues and spending grow in line with those in the rest of the UK.
Lower debt would mean lower debt interest payments and would therefore reduce the budget deficit. In practice, however, if an independent Scotland faced a budget deficit anything like that in our projections, spending cuts or tax rises would be needed to put the public finances on a firmer footing. The oil revenue and public finance forecasts produced by the Scottish Government in the run up to the referendum also look increasingly further away from what is now expected. This might mean we would be revising down projections of the Scottish budget deficit rather than revising them up as has been the case.
As with any economic or fiscal forecast or projection, the projections outlined in this observation are subject to a number of sources of potential error that mean actual outturns will differ.
We would expect that equalisation to unwind as further benefit cuts bite and earnings start to rise, such that inequality at the end of the decade is likely to be similar to inequality at the start. That reflects in part some unpicking, but by no means a complete unpicking, of the very big increases in tax credits introduced by the last Labour government. The solid line shows that there has been a considerable equalisation of the income distribution in the years since the recession, with incomes rising for those towards the bottom of the distribution and falling for those towards the top. First, tax and benefit changes had little effect on pensioners and much bigger effects on those of working age, especially those with children. Again, pensioners are protected while poorer working age households are hit hard, especially those with children.
The sources and distribution of wealth, changes in public service spending and much else besides matters.
Not only were these policies in the Conservative manifesto last year, they were front and centre. Perhaps the biggest bone of contention is how to adjust Scotland’s block grant to reflect the associated transfer of tax revenues and welfare spending to the Scottish Government.
As our report last November showed, it seems impossible to design a system that will satisfy all the Smith Commission’s principles. It argues that if Scotland's revenues per capita grow at the same rate as in the rest of the UK, then the Scottish budget should be neither smaller nor larger than if income tax were not devolved and funding remained determined by the Barnett Formula alone.
The Barnett Formula increases Scotland’s block grant each year by a population share of increases in comparable spending in rUK. Thereafter any percentage increase in this BGA as a result of growth in income tax in rUK would be less than the corresponding population-share based increase in Scotland’s Barnett-determined block grant. Under this approach the change in the BGA is given by the population share of the change in comparable aggregate revenues in rUK, not the percentage change. This is because, whilst the Barnett formula continues to give Scotland a population share of rUK spending increases, the LD approach removes a population share of rUK tax increases.
Because Scottish revenues per capita are lower than those in rUK, Scottish revenues per capita actually have to grow at a faster percentage rate than those in rUK to keep up with the population-shared based increase in the BGA.
The new proposal is based on the LD approach, but takes into account Scotland’s lower initial tax revenues per capita.
First, as discussed above, that the correct counterfactual against which 'detriment' should be assessed should include the Scotland Act 2012 income tax provisions, which do not adjust for differential population growth. There are also continuing differences about the extent to which Scotland should bear risks associated with differential population change, and whether existing devolution arrangements under the Scotland Act 2012 should influence the choice of BGA indexation. The Nuffield Foundation is an endowed charitable trust that aims to improve social well-being in the widest sense. This week Google has become the latest company to attract widespread anger over the amount of tax it has paid in the UK. This paper is a pre-released chapter from the February 2016 IFS Green Budget, produced in association with ICAEW and funded by the Nuffield Foundation and to be launched on Monday 8th February.
Some of those loopholes are well known and many exist in other countries’ tax regimes. The OECD has been seeking to foster collaboration through the BEPS project  to do exactly this.
The full Green Budget 2016 publication will be launched at 10:00 on Monday 8 February 2016 at Guildhall, London. ICAEW is a world leading professional membership organisation that promotes, develops and supports over 144,000 chartered accountants worldwide. Taken together, the amount councils receive in Revenue Support Grant (RSG) and other grants from DCLG are set to fall by 60%.
And these revenue sources are expected to grow over the next four years, not least because councils are expected to raise council tax fairly significantly. It now explicitly takes into account the differing extent to which councils rely on grants, making smaller cuts to the grants of those which rely a lot on the grant than to those councils which are able to raise more of their own revenue from council tax.
Looking to the next four years, spending on adult social care is likely to be particularly protected, because some of the grant to authorities is being ring-fenced for this purpose and because councils are being given the ability to raise council tax by an additional 2% a year specifically to fund adult social care.
None have done so (although Bedfordshire police tried and failed to win such a referendum on the local police precept).
Landlords should only exclude people from housing based on criminal conviction history when the past criminal conduct indicates a demonstrable risk to resident safety or property.
We created a special tax on firearms and ammunition to fund gun violence research and prevention efforts. And it’s not that gun safety measures are unpopular: poll results show how some of the simplest, most common sense gun safety measures have wide support among Americans (including gun owners), but still can’t muster support in Congress or the State Legislature. We have to organize, mobilize, and stand up to violence, hate speech and the many forms of oppression forced down on LGBTQ people and minorities under capitalism. In Seattle, many will be gathering tonight at Cal Anderson Park, at 8 PM, to take comfort in community and talk.
Many places around the United States have used this model with success, including Seattle in a pilot directed toward homeless families. Missy, a staff person at the Navigation Center, greeted our group in the Center’s small lobby, where each resident and visitor sign into the site. People are allowed to store their personal belongings and get eliminate items as they are ready. The Washington State legislature approved $600,000 for a Navigation Center this year, and the city is matching with a private donation of $600,000 earmarked for homelessness services, and will establish a designated fund to collect additional private donations to support the center. For example, I’ve received reports from residents living on side streets near stoplights that they’ve had backups on side streets, and resulting significant delays simply getting on to 35th, or out of their driveway.
At a time where long-term housing is hard to come by, we want to encourage owners of multiple properties to make their properties available to long-term residents. They also attempt to focus on this issue through an equity-based lens: those looking for an affordable home in this city are more in need of supportive local government intervention than those offering their second (or third or fourth) homes to out-of-town visitors. In 2015, there were 56 collisions on the bridge and the Spokane Street Viaduct, and 117 “incidents”, which averaged 47 minutes in duration. Last month I wrote a public letter to the Port in which I expressed the importance of the installation of shore power, the implementation of a quiet zone, and the addition of broadband back-up alarms.
I encourage you to comment online if you are unable to attend one of the two public meetings mentioned above.


A housing code violation plus a rent increase will trigger the protections outlined under the Tenant Protection ordinance if a tenant notifies their landlord of any deficiencies. Nation-wide we have witnessed over one thousand mass shootings between 2013 and 2015.  1000! Her mom and dad both work two jobs to make ends meet but still fight to rise above the poverty line. Olivia’s parents each have high paying jobs with flexible hours, leaving her at a private childcare center on her mom’s route to work.
It has been rated a Level 5 school by the Seattle School District, the best rating a school can receive.
Concentrated poverty contributes to the opportunity gap; it’s debilitating, robbing children of their future potential. It’s time to intentionally and purposefully focus on families that need a strong springboard of supports.
With communities of color disproportionately affected by our criminal justice system, this last finding is particularly important.
This analysis addresses both physical (direct) and economic displacement (indirect) displacement. Cultural displacement occurs when people choose to move because their neighbors and culturally related businesses have left the area. But, beneath this apparent stability in the overall tax take, there have been significant shifts in the composition of tax revenues. Since 2008, this increased reliance has been largely driven by the policy choices to increase the personal allowance, cut the higher-rate threshold, introduce the additional rate and cut pension tax relief. Notably, the bank levy was ratcheted up almost constantly in an attempt to squeeze more revenue out of banks before an abrupt about-face in response to concerns that it may be having undesirable effects, including increasing the likelihood that HSBC left the UK. It also draws attention to the relative lack of data on wealth holdings, especially among the very wealthiest. So it is concerning that HMRC have consulted on discontinuing their publication of statistics on top shares of wealth (derived from data on bequests). Net wealth holdings are also negative for those in each of the next 8 percentiles (that is 9 per cent of households have no positive net wealth).
Unfortunately, the data available do not permit more concrete statements about the extent to which this is the case. The UK’s rebate on its contributions to the EU budget is perhaps the most famous of the special deals negotiated by a member state but it is far from unique.
Recall though that the total budget is just 1% of GNI so the scale of redistribution is inevitably limited.
In fact this is offset by our high employment rates and high population density and a relatively poor track-record of getting European Commission approval for projects to be funded from our structural funds allocation.
The exact basis for their allocation is obscure though – and this is deliberately so.
Women and the self-employed are more likely to gain than other groups: we estimate that 61% of women and 55% of those who have been self-employed for more than 10 years will gain under the new system. Transitional arrangements mean that some people will receive more than this amount and others less. Eight-in-ten of those reaching the state pension age over the next four years will have been contracted out at some point during their lives.
Understandably, many individuals have drawn from this that the new state pension is more generous.
This is a simplification and rationalisation of a complex system which has proved fearsomely difficult to reform just because of its complexity. In addition, households that purchase larger amounts of sugar overall tend to buy a higher share of their added sugar as carbonated and non-carbonated soft drinks. In the case of sugar these costs are likely to be most severe for children and for people who consume a lot of sugar. If consumers respond to higher soft drink prices by switching to these alternatives then the impact of the tax on sugar intake may be partially offset. There may also be concerns that some foodstuffs on which the tax would fall provide other important nutrients. Given that the majority of these revenues would have come from operations in Scottish waters, the impact of these further declines on the Scottish deficit is proportionately much larger than that on the deficit of the UK as a whole.
That is the size of the Scottish deficit on top of its share of the overall UK deficit (which is £850 per person in the UK in the same year).
But if, as the Scottish Government have previously claimed, independence would allow policies to grow the Scottish economy more quickly, such faster growth would tend to push up revenues and reduce Scotland’s deficit. Therefore more problematic is the fact that in its analysis of the potential path of oil revenues, the Scottish Government considers scenarios where the revenues come in higher than the OBR forecasts but does not consider scenarios where revenues come in less than the OBR forecasts.
This includes errors in the OBR forecasts for the UK as a whole; and trends in spending and government revenues in Scotland relative to the UK differing from the above assumptions. In this observation we draw on recent IFS work to provide some assessment of what has happened to living standards across the distribution and what has been the direct effect on incomes of tax and benefit policy. The lack of real income growth at the bottom reflects further benefit cuts, while the better performance further up is dependent on real earnings rising as expected by the OBR. Chart 2 shows our projections for what has happened to the median household incomes of three different age groups – those aged 22-30, 31-59 and 60+.
Chart 3 shows the percentage gain or loss in income resulting from tax and benefit changes for each income decile from May 2010 to April 2015 split between pensioners, working age people with children and those without children. Second, they have resulted in significant losses for those of working age in the bottom half of the income distribution. Within the narrow remit of tax and benefit policy we have shown before how one of the most important effects of the shift to universal credit (if it ever happens) will be to strengthen work incentives for some of those who currently gain the least from moving into work or earning more.
With another 'deadline' for an agreement looming, this observation aims to explain the proposals put forward by each government, set out their respective rationales, and analyse recent 'compromise' proposals put forward by the UK government.
The UK Government instead focuses on the principle of 'taxpayer fairness' which holds that changes in devolved taxes in the rest of the UK should not affect the level of public spending in Scotland after the transfer of tax powers has taken place.
This reflects differing interpretations of the principles included in the Smith Commission report. The Scottish Government argues that the implicit insurance against differences in population growth provided by PCID is fair due to its lack of policy levers to influence the rate of population growth in Scotland relative to rUK. PCID would therefore be relatively more generous than the already agreed mechanisms for the partial devolution of income tax, meaning the Scottish Government would gain relative to existing plans.
But the PCID mechanism for updating the BGA is based on percentage changes (not population shares).
Any increase to the Scottish budget coming through Barnett as a result of changes in income tax revenues in rUK is exactly offset by the same increase in the BGA.
If Scottish revenues per capita instead grow at the same rate as those in rUK, Scotland’s budget falls relative to what it would have in the absence of devolution. And second, that it would be unfair for the Scottish Government to be insulated from population-based risk on the revenue side when on the spending side it gains rather than loses from Scotland’s relatively slow population growth (because the Barnett formula does not take account of this slower population growth when allocating funds).
Both governments make arguments that are consistent with (different parts of) the Smith Commission’s principles.
It funds research and innovation in education and social policy and also works to build capacity in education, science and social science research.
The sense that there are some big, profitable companies paying relatively little in corporate tax has led many to try to allocate blame. In practice, countries have long agreed to divvy up profits according to where the underlying value was created. The UK has already acted to prevent some types of avoidance structures and, going forward, will join other countries in trying to prevent tax avoidance by changing the rules that determine profit allocation.
We provide qualifications and professional development, share our knowledge, insight and technical expertise, and protect the quality and integrity of the accountancy and finance profession.
Cuts over the next four years, though, will be front loaded, with cuts of around 4% to 5% next year, on average.
In the last few years, DCLG effectively cut every council’s grant by the same percentage. In particular, the forecast growth in council tax rates and revenues will do less to offset cuts to grants in areas with small council tax revenues and a high degree of grant reliance than it does in areas with large council tax revenues and a low degree of grant reliance. We have funded a promising hospital-based intervention program for victims of gun violence at the Harborview Injury Prevention and Research Center.
Later this month, on Friday, June 24th, at 5 PM, Seattle’s annual Trans Pride march and rally will begin, also at Cal Anderson Park.
The Council approved the Housing Levy for the August ballot which is designed to build over 2,000 affordable housing units and assist over 4,500 households with rental assistance. There are four rules posted on the wall: no drug or alcohol use onsite, no bigoted language, no violence, and no stealing. I look forward to working with Mayor Murray and our community on moving forward to help those most in need navigate their way into housing. I am currently reviewing the DEIS, but it is important to note that May 23rd kicked off an open comment period where the Port is seeking the community’s input and feedback. The Rental Registration and Inspection Ordinance (RRIO), checklist will be used to determine whether the unit complies with only the most serious requirements of the Housing and Building Maintenance Code. As new parents, they struggle with the challenges, wonder where they will find affordable, high-quality childcare to match their different shifts. Ella will attend Emerson Elementary in her neighborhood, a Level 1 school, the lowest rating, and a rating that hasn’t changed since 2009 when the School District first published these scores. It’s time to recognize the problem and — as our peer countries have shown us — to realize that it doesn’t have to be this way. Should freezes persist over the next five years, fuel duty revenues will grow even more slowly than the OBR forecast and be substantially lower in the longer term.
Moves to broaden the base and crack down on avoidance and new taxes on banks have not been sufficient to outweigh the cost of cutting the corporation tax rate from 28% to 17%.
More thought should be given to whether, and if so how, the banking sector should be taxed differently from other sectors. These statistics have for decades given us the only, albeit imperfect, window into the wealth of the very richest. There are numerous allowances, rebates, additional allocations and the like negotiated within it. A number of other countries such as Germany have also negotiated special deals for regions that would usually not qualify under the standard rules. The idea is that by avoiding explicitly spelling out the formulae used, that it is easier for agreement to be reached (otherwise much time may be spent by member states trying to tweak the formulae in ways that benefit them and can attract the support of other influential members). Our analysis suggests that only 17% of those reaching the state pension age over the next four years will receive a state pension worth exactly the single tier amount, while 23% will enjoy a higher income and 61% will receive a lower state pension income.
Although these individuals have a relatively low state pension entitlement, in return for contracting out they will have accrued rights in a private pension that are (in expectation) worth at least as much as the state pension forgone. This also represents the culmination of more than 30 years of efforts to remove the earnings-related element of the state pension that was first introduced in 1978. It would be a shame if such disillusion was to threaten the sustainability of what is on balance a sensible reform. Comparing the top 20% and the bottom 20% of households based on their share of calories from processed added sugar, households that purchase the largest amounts of sugar get around twice as much of their sugar from carbonated and non-carbonated soft drinks as households that purchase the lowest amounts of sugar. Given that these groups get a relatively high share of their sugar from soft drinks the soft drinks industry levy looks to be reasonably well targeted.
This reflects new net tax raising measures, and the extension of spending cuts into 2020-21 (as well as shuffling some revenues and spending between years as described in our Post Budget 2016 analysis). The projected gap then remains at a broadly similar percentage of national income over the following 4 years. But it does not transfer any responsibility for the existing larger gap between revenues and spending in Scotland. The OBR, for instance, has had to revise down its forecasts in 12 out of the 13 times it has updated them. There are some reasons to suggest that, if anything, the assumptions are more likely to lead us to under-estimate rather than over-estimate Scotland’s fiscal deficit relative to that of the UK as a whole.
Meanwhile the very highest earners - those on over £100,000 a year - have seen significant tax increases. Finally the darker dotted line shows our projections for the period as a whole (which also of course depends on earnings rising as projected from now). Chart 4 shows the same thing for the period from May 2015 to April 2019, including announcements in last week’s Budget. That is not surprising as a result of various cuts to working age benefits have taken effect.
Again, households in the upper half of the income distribution (but below the very top) are likely to see little direct impact of tax and benefit changes on their incomes on average, as some benefits cuts and small tax rises are offset by further increases in the income tax personal allowance, and the raising of the higher rate threshold.
An accompanying briefing note provides additional information, and a detailed report to be in Edinburgh on 22nd March will give our full assessment on the proposals or agreements as they then stand. This would happen both for revenue increases due to economic growth and tax policy changes. Consistency instead requires a symmetric set of risks on the revenue side as on the spending side, which TCA-LD (but not PCID) would deliver.
However, we can attempt to quantify the effects of the different proposals on Scotland’s budget using ONS population projections for Scotland and rUK, and OBR estimates of long-term revenue growth (Table 1). The Nuffield Foundation has funded this project, but the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Foundation.
They are instead designed to tax that part of a firm’s profit that arises from value created in the UK. Controversy often arises when a firm has a large revenue stream in the UK, but is not deemed to have an associated presence here for tax purposes. These kinds of gaps in tax systems can create opportunities for tax avoidance on a grand scale. A system that allocates profits as if they were earned by separate companies will always create tensions. The cuts will also be more evenly spread, rather than hitting poorer authorities harder as happened between 2010 and 2015.
Of course, a given percentage cut in grant has a bigger impact on a council if it relies more on that grant for its overall spending. In other words, it is the fact that the poorer, more grant-dependent areas can do less to increase their budgets by increasing their council tax that means they will still fair a little worse over the next few years than leafier, less grant-dependent places. This could mean difficult choices for other services like children’s social services, refuse collection, libraries, transport, economic development, planning and housing, some of which have already seen very large cuts. But this kind of bigotry and violence will continue unless we fight it through unified mass movements. A small group with representatives from the King County Council, Columbia Legal Services, the Neighborhood Safety Alliance, Seattle’s Human Services Department, and Seattle Police Foundation’s the IF Project, took a tour with the staff and residents.
The Seattle City Council started a proactive inspection program focusing on the serious life safety violations in 2014. Olivia is off to a strong start, while Ella encounters yet another systemic obstacle that will hold her back. Seattle could become the first major city in the United States to reverse the decades of systemic harm we have allowed. The overall trajectory of corporation tax receipts will continue to depend on the strength of growth in corporate profits and the extent to which lower rates boost activity. It matters to households whether they have enough savings to see themselves through retirement and it matters for how they would respond to economic shocks and to fiscal and monetary policy. This is neither straightforward nor sensible as contributions are based on a hypothetical VAT base that no EU member state actually applies. This is, arguably, a very generous bonus to the self-employed, whose lower National Insurance contributions have historically been justified on the grounds that they accrued lower benefit entitlements. In other words, accrual to the new state pension will be 'flat rate' and it will be much easier for individuals to understand how much an additional year of activity will add to their state pension income entitlement. Taking this into account, an extra year of activity would actually have earned you more in state pension rights under the old system than it will under the new system. The justification for this is unclear and could potentially lead to an increase in small producers offering high sugar products that escape the tax. It is worth noting though that, along with biscuits and confectionery, soft drinks are among the few foodstuffs that are already subject to VAT.
The government have set a specific revenue target, which the OBR has computed as corresponding to a rate of 18 pence per litre for drinks with 5-8 grams of sugar per 100 millilitres, and a higher rate of 24 pence for drinks with more than 8 grams of sugar per 100 millilitres. And while the Scottish Government can vary income tax, for instance, to increase or reduce the amounts it raises from these new powers, it cannot adopt a different fiscal stance to that of the UK government (changes in revenues must be balanced by changes in spending).
It suggests that we should expect much of the recent fall in inequality to be undone over the next five years, resulting in a similar change in incomes for rich and poor over the whole period since the recession.
Third, those from the middle of the distribution most of the way up (most people on average earnings and above, certainly up to £50,000 or so a year) saw very small changes in income, on average, as a direct result of tax and benefit policy. And each year more and more income tax from rUK would therefore implicitly be transferred to Scotland.
But in proposing TCA-LD the UK Government has effectively conceded - in practice if not principle - its initial 'taxpayer fairness' argument for favouring the LD approach. For example: if a worker in the UK and a worker in Ireland collaborate in arranging and concluding a sale, or in designing a new product, or writing a piece of software, how much of resulting income should be attributed to UK activities?
Rules around this will change following the BEPS process and it will become more difficult for companies to claim that they do not have a permanent establishment, but this can’t change retrospectively. There is literally nothing the UK government can do unilaterally about some of these loopholes. On Thursday, the European Commission announced new proposals that build on the BEPS project and seek further adjustments to EU tax rules to crack down on tax avoidance. We could decide to live with those tensions as best we can, or we could go back to the drawing board and design a tax system based on how the world currently looks. With the additional ability to increase council tax to pay for social care, the average council tax bill for a band D property could rise by £205 a year by April 2019 if these powers are used in full, with the potential for further rises to pay for police and fire authorities. Every additional 1% increase in adult social care spending would require additional cuts to other areas of spending of around 0.5%. Other councils like districts and the Greater London Authority will still only be able to raise rates by 2% a year without a referendum.
When needed, translators are available to help you file your complaint about housing and building maintenance compliance issues. A permanent decline in onshore corporation tax revenues would mark a break with the previous trend which, despite continuous predictions to the contrary, was for onshore corporation tax receipts to be quite steady over time once cyclical effects were excluded. This element remains because of earlier hopes that VAT could be fully harmonised and a source of EU revenue.
Of course this has the advantage that, over the longer term, the new single-tier state pension will be cheaper than the system it replaces and therefore the reform strengthens the long-run public finances. In addition, how the major producers and retailers of soft drinks respond will be important.
The continued zero rating for VAT purposes of cakes and other sugary foods remains as an effective tax subsidy to their consumption. This means that, in many cases, the tax per gram of sugar is declining in the amount of sugar per 100 millilitres in a product – see Figure 1. Those of working age still have incomes below pre-crisis levels, with the youngest suffering most, albeit with something of a recent bounce back. Given the scale of the overall austerity measures implemented this group were remarkably well protected from tax and benefit changes. By taking account of Scotland’s lower initial tax capacity, there would continue to be some redistribution of rUK income tax revenue increases to Scotland in future. The trouble is that calculating how much profit arises from value added in any individual country can be very tricky, and is often open to honest dispute. Since the opportunities for avoidance arise at the boundaries between tax systems, a multilateral approach makes sense. For example, we could tax companies based on where their sales occur rather than where their profits are deemed to have arisen. This method disadvantages countries in which spending on goods and services that form part of this hypothetical construct constitute a large fraction of national income.
This creates unnecessary anomalies – for instance a 1 litre product that contains 100g of sugar will attract the same amount of tax overall, and only two thirds as much per 100 grams of sugar, as a 1 litre product containing 50% more sugar.
Second, the OBR forecasts revenue growth to be particularly strong for taxes like capital gains tax, inheritance tax and stamp duties, which make up a relatively smaller share of Scottish revenues. The strong income performance among the over 60s results from the fact that pensioners were the least affected by falling real earnings, pensioner benefits were mostly protected, and some of the poorest, oldest pensioners  have died and been replaced by a generation with higher state and private pension entitlements.
For this group the increase in the personal allowance and falls in petrol duty largely offset the effects of the big increase in VAT and some benefit cuts on average. We may not be ready for such radical change yet, but depending on how well the newly patched up international corporate tax system works over the next few years we may find it is worth considering whether a new set of tensions would produce a more agreeable outcome. All else equal, this would tend to suggest growth in revenues per person in Scotland would be lower than for the UK as a whole. Remember, though, that the protection of this group does have to be seen in the context of falling real wages which have hit their living standards. Yet the rules can never be detailed enough to set out what the outcome should be in every possible case.
These tariffs sensibly belong to the EU given that the goods are entering a single EU wide market.
Third, while our revenue projections account for declines in oil revenues, our projections assume that GDP from the North Sea rises in line with onshore GDP. Finally the top decile, and in particular those on the very highest incomes, earning more than £100,000 a year, faced some significant tax increases.
Countries are under no obligation to implement them if they think they will damage their own competitiveness. The fact that countries which collect the tariffs get to keep 25% (falling to 20%) as costs of collection, though, seems less reasonable.
Indeed, if measures introduced in the final months of the last Labour government were included too, the average loss in the top decile would rise to 6.5% of income, making them the biggest losers over the period. This is why HMRC is often engaged with multinationals about how much tax they pay: not because they are busy cutting special deals, but because they are trying to apply the tax rules in a consistent manner.



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