Stock market crash 2015,free binary options signal indicator,trading stock options for dummies - PDF 2016

29.10.2015 admin
Michael Robinson's 2015 Tech Investor's Forecast has just been released, giving you the strategies, tactics and 7 stock picks that'll ensure you cash in on the greatest commercialization era Silicon Valley has ever seen. Maybe that’s not a total surprise when you consider how overly optimistic investors are about the stock market.
Generally, investors get excited about a stock when it announces solid revenue and earnings growth. And investors are beginning to clue into the fact that the stock market is becoming an increasingly risky place to be. In 2013, companies on the key stock indices logged a record-high for share buyback activity. The ultra-low-interest-rate environment has made it cheaper to borrow money—and is recognized as being the fuel that has propelled the stock market higher. Share!Apparently the bulls have eaten all the stock turkey they can, now that they face having to pay for $100 billion in new Treasury paper over the weekend.  Indicators are still mixed, with the guidance from cycle projections pointing to 2135 and 2170. Share!The market now only needs to close above 2094 to break the short term downtrend to reignite the uptrend. Share!The recovery rally in stocks in October was a direct result of Treasury paydowns, which was a temporary effect. Share!Gold is again threatening to break the bear market low this morning after last week’s weak bounce.
Share!The two significant pullbacks in the past three months have made the specter of a stock market crash in 2015 much more plausible. We found seven charts that explain why the markets have repeatedly stumbled this year – and why a bigger stock market crash in 2015 looms on the horizon. Taken together, these charts paint an unsettling picture of a market on a shaky foundation. If profit margins start to revert, given what we’ve seen in the previous charts, a stock market crash can follow.
The last two times the Fed did any significant tightening of rates, in 1999-2000 and in 2004-2007, stocks plummeted. But this time the rate hike will follow the end of the QE trillions flowing into the market.
Now, we haven’t had a stock market crash every seven years like clockwork, but it has happened often enough to give investors pause. What to Do After a Stock Market Crash: Sooner or later, there will be another stock market crash. The stock market has had wild roller coaster ride during January in the wake of the euro-zone crisis where one of the best days of the year (+275) is immediately followed by the worst day of the year (-335) the effect of which is to literally grind the strength out of the stocks bull market rally of 2014 with stomach churning moves that have been encouraging the perma-bears to literally scream at the top of their lungs that this time, THIS TIME the bull market really is over! Yes the stocks markets are manipulated where the manipulation reveals itself in the price charts.
The only way for individuals to break out of the debt system is as I have voiced countless times in many articles and several ebook's (FREE DOWNLOAD) is to NOT borrow money and to accumulate income generating assets the most familiar of which to most would be rental properties and lesser stocks given that I deem stocks to be a higher risk asset class than properties. The stocks bull market raged on for another year to close at Dow 17,823 (+7.5%) following the Dow's most recent all time high set just a few days earlier at 18,103. In the real world my automatic response to people asking me about what’s happening to the stock market is to say "It's October, this is what always happens in October before we get the Santa rally ".
I keep being reminded of the movie SPARTICUS where the slaves are lined up at the end just like market commentators line up at the depths of market corrections to once more proclaim that they too are ALL Sparticus!
UNDERSTAND THIS - THIS stocks stealth bull market is one of the GREATEST bull markets in HISTORY! Instead I have to reiterate what I have voiced for the duration of the stocks stealth bull market in over 200 articles (Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470 ), my strategy has been very, very simple, no black box voodoo to sell garbage to the unsuspecting masses but simply this - " The Greater the deviation from the stock market high then the Greater the Buying Opportunity Presented". My last in-depth analysis of the year concluded in the following trend forecast into the End of January 2015. My long standing view remains that the stock market rally will continue into the end of the year when I expected the Dow to be trading north of 18,000.
Therefore despite some positive developments in terms of buying time to produce a vaccine and treatments in enough quantity to make a difference, Ebola still represents a major black swan risk for the global economy for the whole of 2015.
In terms of stock market trend so far the outbreaks have been contained to West Africa and thus had little effect on stock market trend. Where stock investors are concerned, a number of biotech stocks in a race to deliver an Ebola cure that I am sure many of the worlds governments will be forced to stockpile at great expense just as they did with Avian Flu. Greece had already been black mailing the eurozone for a good 5 years in the lead to the current vote, where bailout after bailout followed as the Troika stepped forward to effectively finance the whole of Greece's annual interest payments so that Greece's corrupt politicians and government institutions stopped bearing the costs of an exponentially rising debt mountain that even after several hair-cuts still stands at 175% of GDP that Syriza in the lead upto the election made clear that in large part (50%) would either be written off or defaulted upon and in the process blowing a hole in the Euro-zone. The last time Syriza threatened to seize power in Greece was in Mid 2012 which put the markets on red alert for financial armageddon that triggered banks literally to start exploding across the euro-zone most notable of which was Spain's Bankia. All of the weak euro-zone countries are waking up to the fact that they have been in a state of denial because they are NOT Germany they cannot compete against Germany that effectively holds a captured market for its goods and services that they purchase with German loans, and therefore are only delaying the inevitable by remaining in a currency union with Germany that ensures their economies are also in a state of slow motion death spiral of economic collapse. Though I have to state that courtesy of ECB bond buying there is no sign of contagion yet in the other PIIGS nations as illustrated by low 10 year bond market yields, most of which are trading at well below 2% i.e.
Whilst contagion amongst euro-zone members may be a slow motion affair as countries line up one by one for an orderly exit, however the contagion amongst the banking sector will be immediate and europe wide as credit markets could freeze once more even despite ECB money printing that has the potential to accelerate the collapse of the euro-zone as the potential bailout costs for preventing financial armageddon soar far beyond the means of any of the euro-zone member states to cover.
Active market participants tend to ignore much of the media hype that surrounds what is going in Greece and the euro-zone and instead focus on the real news which is that despite German resistance, the announcement that the ECB WILL PRINT MONEY. Therefore whilst the media was focused on the end of US QE, despite the likelihood the Fed has many such tricks up its sleeves to flood the markets with liquidity.


Whilst most ordinary people across the UK are reaping the benefits of the oil price crash to below $50 that has resulted in energy bills being cut by 10% and the price at the petrol pumps nudging to below £1 a litre not seen since 2009. Therefore the overall picture is one of substantially increasing supply coupled with a slowing demand that will remain a net strong positive for most US Stocks for 2015, especially those reliant on energy costs such as the airlines and transportation companies, conversely those sectors reliant on high oil prices will suffer such as the oil exploration and drilling and services companies. The stock oil price graph further illustrates an overall inverse relationship between oil and general stock prices, that is along as GDP is growing and not contracting (recession).
My in depth US Dollar analysis of Mid December concluded in the following trend forecast for the 2015 to converge towards a peak in the US Dollar by August 2015 to a spike above USD100 before retreating towards 92 by the end of the year. My USD Trend forecast conclusion for 2015 is that after the current correction is over by around USD85, that the USD then trends higher towards a target of 98 by mid summer 2014, probably terminating in a spike to just above 100 before correcting back towards 92 by the end of the year as illustrated by the following trend forecast graph. Fundamentally a strong US Dollar tends to be negative for international stocks because it reduces revenues in foreign currency and makes US exports more expensive, conversely it boosts domestic consumer stocks as the costs of imports falls as the same dollar can buy more foreign goods and services i.e.
From QE1, to QE2 to QE3, the Fed since before this stocks bull market began has been printing money and buying mostly government bonds from their fellow bankster brethren the successful result of which has been to suppress interest rates and generate artificial profits for the banks to continue to bank as bonuses for fictitious performance levels. With the apparent end of QE many analysts concluded that it was all over, and that rates were set to rise which spells doom for the stock market, all without realising two fundamental factors.
Therefore contrary to the growing bearish consensus, I see the announcement for the 'end of QE' as a red herring, as I don't think it will have either a bullish or bearish effect on the bull markets primary trend as in my opinion QE has not really ended, just the Fed pressing the pause button for a few months. Therefore all prices, including asset prices such as stocks will continue to be leveraged to and oscillate around an exponential inflation mega-trend. The Dow has fallen towards its 200day moving average as the target for normal deep corrections that usually results in a resumption of the bull market. My last stocks ebook of March 2013 (near 2 years ago) (FREE DOWNLOAD) concluded in the following Elliott Wave mega-trend wave pattern as a rough guide for how long and far the stocks bull market could continue. The stocks bull market clearly remains in tact as the Dow continues to put in a series of new highs with higher lows. The bottom line is that there is NO sign of a TREND REVERSAL, therefore the stocks bull market remains intact. Yes after a near 6 year bull run the stock market is not exactly cheap with the S&P trading on a PE of 18, 12 is cheap, 18 is a little over valued. A very volatile January with the Dow whipsawing all over the place gives an indication of what to expect for much of 2015 which also makes it difficult to conclude in an intra-year trend forecast, especially for the first half of the year. This is an ageing mature bull market so it is very unlikely that we are going to see gains the likes of 2009 or 2013.
The trend for the first half of 2015 will probably resolve in a volatile difficult to call trading range i.e. My final conclusion is for the Dow to spend the first half of 2015 in a wide volatile trading range as it continues to unwind the 2014 bull run and sets the scene for the next series of bull runs to new all time highs.
The bottom line is don't be frightened by first half weakness, yes it may look grim if we see the Dow trading under 16k, but all it would represent is a deeper buying opportunity before the market resolves to above Dow 19k.
My next analysis will probably take an in-depth look at the probable outcome of the May UK General Election, so ensure you remain subscribed to my always free newsletter for this and ongoing detailed analysis and trend forecasts throughout 2015.
Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.
Cosmo KramerJune 29, 2015 at 1:00 PMFinancial sense analysts recommended investing in china. It said there is a 38% probability that the eurozone, the world’s strongest economic region, will fall back into a recession by the end of the first quarter of 2015. And the economic numbers that have been rolling in just don’t synch up with what the stock markets are preaching. Roughly half of all investors are bullish on the stock market, which is one of the highest readings for 2014. Or maybe it’s the fact that the central bank in England is winding down its quantitative easing (QE) and the Federal Reserve has ended its stimulus package, the fuel that has propelled the stock market higher since 2009.
The strong gains made by stocks in 2013 were, for the most part, unwarranted, driven by artificially low interest rates bestowed upon investors by the Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policy. Businesses and investors will also pay the price for their addiction to artificially low interest rates, especially as the markets transition away from QE. The Federal Reserve has hinted it will start to wean investors off cheap money in 2015, when it begins to raise interest rates. That has been reversed as the debt ceiling was raised and the Treasury returned to the market with a vengeance, pounding it with $310 billion in net new supply since the end of October. But as you can see in the chart, oil prices and stock prices usually don’t diverge by much. Which has been regurgitated at length by the mainstream media and BlogosFear backed by supporting reasons coalescing around euro-zone collapse, end of Fed QE, and possible interest rate hikes being just around the corner, all of this despite the FACT that stocks actually do quite nicely during the early years of RATE hiking cycles! THE WEALTH GENERATED BY THE ECONOMY (wage slaves) IS BEING RE-INVESTED BY THE ELITE INTO CAPITAL ASSETS SUCH AS HOUSING and Stocks, and this is a reinforcing cycle that ultimately ends when the elite (0.1%) own virtually ALL of the assets (over 90%) resulting in a society that is PRIMED for a REVOLUTION!
This despite widespread calls of bear markets and even crashes that coalesced around a series of bad news events such as surrounding the US debt ceiling triggering a government shutdown and not forgetting Octobers end of QE apocalypse, with such doom calls always reaching their most vocal just at the end of every correction. Instead the so called market commentators march on as if nothing happened despite spouting more garbage because clearly they NEVER put their own money on the line, which is the real secret for arriving at the most probable outcome. Which as long as this trend persists apart from the occasional story of a patient here or there which the markets have now grown immune to, then so should the stock market shrug off Ebola for 2015.


It does not matter if the amount announced was more or less than expected, for once money printing starts it does not tend to end with QE1, instead the Euro-zone as has been the case for much of the rest of the world can look forwards to QE2,QE3,QE4 which means a lot of asset price inflation that will not just impact on european assets but liquidity will actually flood out into the stronger markets such as the UK and US as a consequence of posing LESS risk to market participants than the euro-zone.
Therefore the stock market CAN and HAS continued to rise along WITH a strong US Dollar, as well as not forgetting that a strong dollar means foreigners buying dollar assets such as stocks and housing. Where the stock market is concerned is that the flood of some $5 trillion of money printing has in part driven the stocks bull market, much as I voiced would right at the start of this bull market in March 2009. US bond prices and where bonds stand there is no sign of an end of the US Treasury bond bull market. Yes, it is likely that the Fed will start to raise rates during 2015, we can probably expect the first and only rate rise of the year around August.
So, yes whilst this implies greater volatility as the market trend is not being smoothed out as we have witnessed during January's wild gyrations, but NO, the 6 year stocks bull market has not come to an end.
Which implies the market is coming to terms with uncertainty, so whilst the mainstream press may be in a panic over Greece, the markets are actually calming down. Much of this analysis is converging towards the Dow to be trading at a high of between 19,000 and 19,600 during December 2015, a gain of between 6.6% and 10%.
I use term russian intentionally as it is more and more clear that russia is on the imperialistic expansion route.What is your take on impact of the situation on commodity and stock markets.
Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is up 165% since early 2009 and is in record territory, while the NASDAQ is up 275%. Both markets rebounded in short order, soaring back during the latter part of the month, fuelling investor optimism.
As the world’s biggest economy and largest consumer market, 71% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) came from consumer spending in 2013. In 2013, the year in which the S&P 500 realized a 30% gain, the stocks that make up the index reported underwhelming results. In fact its rate CUTS that stocks bulls need to worry about for they signal WEAKNESS ahead.
However, we all know what happens at the end of the movie, as they all end up getting crucified, and we don't have to look far to see what happened following EACH end of the bull market final top call of just this year! And so it continues to be the case for the DURATION OF THIS BULL MARKET, where over 90%, NINTEY PERCENT OF Market commentators have been WRONG and continue to be WRONG, Everyone who has just proclaimed its END IS WRONG and Will BE CRUCIFIED, just as they have been crucified at every market turn for the past FIVE YEARS ! This is why virtually every time I write an article on the stocks bull market I get so many comments and reasons to explain why I this time I am wrong and it has ended.
Whilst western civilisation has over 400 years painfully detached itself from the what Christian Ideology actually is, other ideologies across the middle east still crave the end of the world so that they may ascend into paradise for eternity for the Islamic world is literally living on borrowed time as Islamic nations cannot compete against Rationality and are not just sinking but imploding into chaos and anarchy promoting huge waves of migration to Europe and North America.
Overall a low oil price should boost the US economy and stock market, so after the market has fully come to terms with the ongoing collapse in oil price then the stock market should resolve to a bullish trend. However the facts are that the early years of a rate hiking cycle tend to be BULLISH for stock prices, for the interest rate rises tend to take place in a climate of economic strength NOT weakness. So another reason why the Fed will print money for if it does not that the US Dollar will continue to soar that will result in falling demand as exports diminish and cheap imports swamp the US market. For bull markets usually tend to peak at bubble extremes, which given 6 years of trend implies we are still several years away, so in terms of valuations this bull market could run for several more years!
I further expect the Dow to be trading well above 19,000 during December 2015 and probably above 19,500, before closing at around Dow 19,150 for a 7.5% gain for the year as illustrated by the following trend forecast graph for 2015. You willl see the archive link there to prove that it is possible to predict these dates very accurately Short the markets and make a fortune. The worst year for stocks in the Great Depression was in 1931, which fits into the seven-year cycle. I had previously estimated that Greece could experience an annualised inflation rate of at least 30%, which given the nature of the new government that would do nothing to address the requirements of capital markets could probably soar far higher amidst a panic driven spike as any money left in Greece flooded out of the country before capital controls came into force. Be under no delusion, money printing STILL continues through various open market operations.
This is why many market commentators miss whole bull markets whilst banging the drums of always imminent DEFLATION which translates into an always imminent crash or bear market that has FAILED to materialise for SIX YEARS!
He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
So maybe the idea of a major stock market collapse or correction in 2015 isn’t that big of a stretch. So plenty of doom for the bears to play pick and mix with for reasons why Bull Market End Time is here!
Especially when you consider that most Dow long-term charts conclude in an ABCD pattern that always implies the end of the 'bear market rally' as being imminent, that's imminent for 6 years now!
We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time.




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