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14.03.2014 admin
Those with future euro requirements should consider locking-in the current strong GBP-EUR exchange rate.
Euro exchange rates were sent sharply lower on Thursday the 22nd of October after ECB President Draghi said the governing council have discussed further policy actions including a further cut in the deposit rate from the current level of -0.2%.
The President said the downside risks are due to the output gap, low inflation due to further fall in the energy prices, a slowdown in the EMS and an almost 8% appreciation in the EUR exchange rate. But we have heard from two leading European economists that the euro exchange rate complex is already trading at levels consistent with an extension being announced.

While an interest rate cut could theoretically be announced, (as in Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden) Draghi would have to backtrack from the council position that rates are at the lower bound. The pace of ECB buying could also go up, made more powerful with a shift in purchasing away from GDP weights. ING’s Krpata says the euro is trading below fair value because the market currently prices in either (a) an extension of the current pace of EUR60bn monthly purchases by another two quarters or (b) a top up of the current programme by almost EUR30bn per month over the remainder of the programme. However, the Dutch bank believes such a move is unrealistic at this point when the ECB is present in the market.

But the domestic data is holding up so far, most recently highlighted by Monday’s ECB lending survey.

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