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10.06.2014 admin
Guest Work is the Sciblogs guest blog where we run submissions from a wide range of contributors. With Australia being first-mover to legislate for plain packaging of tobacco products, and given the closeness of our countries, the noise level is rising on what New Zealand’s policy should be. But one voice that has been largely missing from this debate is that of the dark science, economics. So what do economists think will be the consequence of plain packaging on smoking incidence?
There is surprising consistency (for economists) that if applied as an independent lever, introducing plain packaging will not reduce smoking but will cause consumption to increase!
One evidently independent economic study hails from the Montreal Economic Institute1 which reviews the appropriate literature and concludes “…no causal relation has been established between plain packaging of cigarettes and tobacco consumption.
They also note that the more graphic health warnings required in Canada had not resulted in statistically lesser smoking incidences than in the USA where substantially tamer and less prominent health warnings are required. Given that starting point these authors then address the economic consequences and state “In fact, by abolishing the brand premium, we can predict that sales will increase, according to the law of demand.”.
Even economists serving opposite masters (Jorge Padilla of LECG Consulting funded by Philip Morris International2 vs Howard Reid of Landman Economics funded by ASH – Action on Smoking and Health3) agree that debranding will cause the price of cigarettes to drop, and greater cigarette consumption will result unless a further action (say, a countervailing tax) is taken to restore the original price point.
Reid (of course) claims this is “overstated” but he does agree that a level of increased consumption is an assured economic consequence when plain packaging is used as an independent lever.
Allan Main has 35 years experience in innovation and science management and is currently consulting in that field.
And as no country had implemented plain packaging at the time, no empirical study was possible. Sciblogs is the biggest blog network of scientists in New Zealand, an online forum for discussion of everything from clinical health to climate change.
With 2016 NFL training camps opening around the league this week, the best NFL players are gathering for practices in the summer heat.

Interestingly, some of these teams’ hopes will ride on players who were not even drafted, but through perseverance, they found their way into the NFL as undrafted free agents and eventually became stars. Resume: 20 NFL seasons for the Patriots and Colts, three Pro Bowls, four-time Super Bowl Champion. Resume: 13 NFL seasons for the Steelers, Bengals and Ravens, five Pro Bowls, two-time Super Bowl Champion. Harrison was thought to be too short to play linebacker in the NFL after his outstanding college career at Kent State University, as detailed by the Los Angeles Times. The second-consecutive player from Kent State on our list, Gates was actually a standout basketball player for the Golden Flashes. Romo was spectacular as a college quarterback at Eastern Illinois University, but NFL teams overlooked him since he played at such a small school against inferior competition. Revelers of the Imperatriz samba school perform during the second day of the Carnival parade at the Sambodrome in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Feb. Revelers of the Unidos da Tijuca samba school perform during the second day of the carnival parade in the Sambodrome, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on Feb. Michael Josephson is a noted radio commentator and the founder of the nonprofit Josephson Institute of Ethics and CHARACTER COUNTS!. Harry Clarke and David Prentice both from the School of Economics, La Trobe University, have also assessed the economic impact of plain packaging on consumption of cigarettes.
Our Scibloggers are either practising scientists or have been writing on science-related issues for some time. All 32 teams hope this will be the beginning of a journey that will lead them to Super Bowl LI next February in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the best NFL players who are currently active, but were not even considered among the top 250 available players coming out of college (presented in reverse ranking order).
He was not a particularly accurate kicker at South Dakota State University, and was nowhere close to being on any NFL team’s radar coming into the 1996 NFL Draft.

It took him a couple years to really catch on in the league, but once he did, he was an electric performer.
He was an undersized power forward who had no shot at an NBA career, so Gates decided to take his athletic gifts and give the NFL a try. Romo made the Cowboys roster as an undrafted free agent, and did little more than hold for field goals and extra points early in his career. Subscribers and regular visitors to this blog will find written and audio versions of radio commentaries, plus printable posters, observations and videos. Your responses will form the basis of a report to be published soon by Josephson Institute. The New England Patriots invited him to training camp as a long-shot, and he shockingly won the placekicking job. James Harrison found his niche as an outside pass rusher, and he has accumulated 732 tackles and 76.5 quarterback sacks during his illustrious NFL career. The San Diego Chargers gambled on the 6-foot-4, 255-pound basketball player, and he is now considered one of the best receiving tight ends in the history of the league. That turned out to be a life-changing moment for Peters, who more than a decade later is still starring in the NFL. Carmelitas is a band started in 1990 by a group of friends who gathered for soccer and drinks just outside a Carmelite convent.

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