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11.05.2015


Females aged 16-18 were most likely to report that a pregnancy would make it hard to fit in with friends.
Males aged 16-18 were most likely to report that they would feel confused if they were to get someone pregnant. Implantation bleeding is very common in the first trimester – this occurs about 10 to 14 days after conception or when the fertilized egg attaches to the lining of the uterus. Certain kinds of infections of the urinary tract, or the pelvic area could also result in bleeding and this should be reported as well.
Serious conditions such as an ectopic pregnancy, cervical cancer, a miscarriage or a molar pregnancy could also result in bleeding during pregnancy and as a rule all pregnancy bleeding should be reported.
Problems in the cervix such as infection, inflammation, or abnormal growths in the area could also cause bleeding during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. In very rare cases it could be a uterine rupture (a life threatening condition) that causes bleeding. Problems with the placenta such as Placenta Previa (where the placenta wholly or partly covers the cervix) and Placenta abruption (a rare condition where the placenta detaches from the wall of the uterus wholly or in part) could also cause bleeding during pregnancy. Towards the end of the pregnancy, some kinds of bleeding may be considered normal – as the cervix begins to efface and prepare for labor, the mucus plug that protects the baby from the outside could dislodge and come out, accompanied by some bleeding. When teenage pregnancy rates in one community fell drastically, it looked like a policy of sex education had paid off. The figure reported last summer, the most recent then available, really was lower than in 1994. Nevertheless, a plausible explanation for change helps convince people that the change really occurred. About one-third of males and females aged 16-18 reported that a pregnancy would neither make it harder OR easier to fit in with friends. However it is important to remember that not all bleeding during the first part of pregnancy is dangerous or cause for concern.
As more blood flows to the site of the cervix, this area can become soft and this could result in some harmless bleeding as well. This can occur at the site of a previous surgical scar when a woman has undergone a previous C section. But it's clear that the numbers go sharply up and down, much more so in a small community than the larger one of Scotland as a whole. What had gone down, briefly, went up, just as what sometimes jumps up often tends to come down.


It is reportedly the pregnancy clause that Bebo refused to sign," a source told a daily.Filmmaking these days is a lot more about terms and conditions and since it was mandatory for the leading lady to adhere to the clause, she failed to go on board the film. It could be preterm labor which will also include a premature opening of the cervix and pain, which causes the bleeding. As a matter of caution, all bleeding during pregnancy should be reported to the doctor promptly. But there's another knowledge of life that statistical thinking sees and other mind-sets often miss. From no pregnancy during the shooting to showing readiness to doing hot scenes and wearing skimpy clothes is included in the clauses.
This second kind of thinking relies not particularly on maths, but imagination, imagination for what can go wrong with narratives that describe the way one thing leads to another. The truth is that we still don't really know if there is an underlying change in the pattern of teenage pregnancies in Orkney.
This is the best kind of story-telling; story-telling wise to the ways that stories might mislead. They began talking to young people about sex in terms of relationships, not only mechanics. Another recent example appeared in an editorial in a serious national newspaper - which had better remain nameless - about the revival of marriage, with a reflective account of why this had happened deduced from a short run of recent data. They also made condoms easily available because in a small community the shopkeeper might just be your auntie. I suspect that all concerned, including journalists, found the story of relationship advice and condoms plausible enough to convince them that the numbers they looked at in those two salient years - a beginning and an end - told them something important.
Five weeks later the same newspaper found itself reporting that marriage had in fact, according to new data, fallen to its lowest level in one hundred and eleven years. The real difficulty in almost all these cases is to work out how long you have to look at the data before being confident that change is sustained. The truth in the Orkney case is that the number of teenage pregnancies goes up and down, and ups and downs may have nothing to do with the stories told to explain them. Observing the excitability at life's natural yo-yo, you might wonder if parts of politics, journalism, even sometimes science, resemble nothing so much as an insane commentary on a game of (horizontal) tennis, in which it is assumed that whatever just happened tells us all we need to know, as if whoever just hit the ball must be winning.
The underlying trends and often slow nature of real change are lost in a frantic effort by all sides to grab at any short-term snippet of data and claim support for their beliefs or policies, to tell stories with an instant moral.
Below is a selection of your comments.It's not just plain randomness, there could also be Regression to the Mean making it worse.


So the point where we start looking at the figures has been artificially selected as a historically high value. A similar effect happens when people resort to quackery (miracle diets, cold cures, homeopathy, prayer, etc) at the lowest point of an illness. Some people's condition randomly improves, and the witch-doctors point to it as proof that their method works. I suspect we need much, much greater knowledge of the process of evidence-based science throughout the population coupled with a vast increase in the number of "scientific" politicians and journalists before we ever smooth out the yo-yo! Hopefully, this will be applied to all aspects of Climate Change from now on!James Tweedie, Dundee, AngusWhat? You write an article on whether data is statistically significant and you don't mention the sample size?
Not necessarily disagreeing with your conclusions, and certainly not contesting that data from small samples can fluctuate wildly without being indicative of any sort of trend, but this is a very, very basic omission.
For the record, 30 seconds' research suggests Orkney has a population of around 20,000 today (may have been more or less in the past, but let's go with that as a ballpark), of which we can probably assume around 10,000 are women.
If your graph indeed shows pregnancies per 1000 women and not per 1000 *teenage* women, that means the raw numbers are fluctuating between around 600 and 220 pregnancies per year.
I'm not a professional statistician, but my mathematically educated intuition tells me this is statistically very significant indeed, and highly unlikely to be caused by random fluctuations in data.Olly, MunichStatistics are by nature very variable, it all depends on how you collate the information and how longer a time period you look at it over as Michael Blastland's article quite clearly showed. So beware statistics, because you can manipulate any series of figures to prove your own point! Keith B, LeicesterThis reminds me of an experiment I saw on TV (probably horizon or something) where people were asked to look at a pair of pictures and decide which was most attractive. After they had done this with lots of pairs, they were shown the one they had chosen of each pair and asked to justify their decision, which they happily did. Except that the scientist had swapped the rejected photo for the chosen photo, so the subject was happily justifying a decision they had not actually made.
It showed that we often make a decision and then seek to rationalise it by looking for evidence that fits that decision.Nick M, Nottingham, UKThe British government abuse statistics in this way to impose and justify revenue-generating speed cameras.



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