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admin 03.11.2014

College football editor Jason Kirk picks the NCAA Tournament based on nothing but each school's college football team.
Pitt, UCLA, Ohio State, Syracuse, and Stanford are obvious picks over Colorado, Tulsa, Dayton, Western Michigan, and New Mexico. Florida plays Pitt, and I don't really have to make a choice between brand-name and store-brand sadness, since either loses to UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen anyway.
Easy choices here: Memphis over George Washington, Cincinnati over Harvard, Michigan State over Delaware, North Carolina over Providence, Iowa State over NC Central, and Villanova over Milwaukee.
In-theory upsets continue in the East, with Coastal Carolina over Memphis and Villanova over UConn.
Stress-free selections: Arizona, Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Baylor, UL-Lafayette, and Wisconsin to beat Weber State, Gonzaga, New Mexico State, Nebraska, Creighton, and American, which might or might not be an American Athletic Conference all-stars team.
Oklahoma beats North Dakota State, and every other AQ-conference team here is really, really glad Oklahoma got North Dakota State. Four honest-to-gosh good football teams enter the Sweet Sixteen, with Oklahoma State over Arizona, Oklahoma over San Diego State, Baylor over UL-Lafayette, and Oregon over Wisconsin.


If we want to do the common opponents thing, we'll note Oregon beat Texas by 23 and Texas beat Oklahoma by 16.
Arizona State to beat Texas is the hardest pick of the whole first round, as no reasonable person should have any degree of confidence in either of these teams. K-State beats Cal Poly and Louisville beats NC State, with both games having about the same score.
8-5 Iowa over 10-4 Duke probably seems like an upset, but the Hawkeyes' defense would be one of the three best Duke saw all year — the other two, Virginia Tech and Florida State, held the Blue Devils' busy offense to 20 total points. The Spartans' defense is the best unit on the field, but not by much, and its offense is probably still the worst despite late-season improvement. To this point in the tournament, Michigan State's batted around some speed teams and butted heads with Stanford.
Michigan State also gets a heavy home-crowd advantage in Arlington, judging by the number of Ducks fans spotted in the stands at the Alamo Bowl and the sea of green in the Rose Bowl. Manhattan, Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen), Iowa over UMass, and Duke over Mercer (great job, Duke!).


Michigan State in the Rose Bowl, and that was in the Cardinal's home state, with Spartans linebacker and captain Max Bullough suspended. 1 defense had its two worst games against its two opponents most similar to Oregon: run-heavy Nebraska and Ohio State.
Oregon's gotten hammered in every round, with its list of opponents (BYU, Wisconsin, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Kansas State) giving it maybe the most physical path to the title of anybody in the field. And this is with 2013 rosters, of course; we'll get to see what the 2014 editions do to each other in Eugene on Sept. The Spartans puzzle through the quandary and decide to limit themselves to only so many punts, advancing to the Final Four.



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