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admin 04.03.2015

Every year since his first presidential campaign, Barack Obama has shared his NCAA men’s college basketball tournament bracket with the public, and, for the last five years, predictions for the women’s tournament, too.
Other public figures have picked brackets, but Obama, a big basketball fan, is unusual in having entered so many of his bracket predictions into the public record2 — enough to create a sample size bigger than some of the polls used to forecast his election and re-election, and to search for patterns in his picks. The second benchmark for Obama’s picks was the one used to score brackets for accuracy: how many games the teams won.
I now had a set of over 700 teams, each one with two scores indicating whether Obama was hard or easy on each team. Pick a loser football - In the National Basketball Association, the promise that assist in determining sports betting systems.
When Obama picked Louisville to make the final last year as a top seed, the first measure scored that as a big pro-Louisville preference, since the average No. For each year, I took the most recent presidential election data6 and subtracted the percentage of votes going to the Republican from the percentage received by the Democrat, then normalized the results.7 I then ran two regressions against this score, one for each of my scores of Obama’s picks.


I gathered as much information as I could from press accounts of his Final Four picks that year, plus whatever I could glean from this video clip of his ESPN interview, and excluded from all analyses the 21 women’s teams in the 2010 tournament for which I couldn’t figure out the president’s prediction.
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