Catastrophist talk of an instant downward spiral following a No vote in the referendum – mostly emanating from George Osborne’s coterie – was always premised on the willfully-false assumption that the Bank of England would sit idly by and let it happen. Here we go again – once more, as we have been saying over and over and over again, we are not trading anything remotely resembling fundamentals – if anyone out there can actually tell us what those might be in this Central Bank La-La Land – but instead, we are trading Central Bank actions or inactions. Not only that, the Bank is taking another foray into the Quantitative Easing morass; they plan on buying government and corporate bonds to make sure longer term rates stay low. For most experts, deflation, which they define as a general decline in prices of goods and services, is bad news since it generates expectations for a further decline in prices. As a result, they hold, consumers postpone their buying of goods at present since they expect to buy these goods at lower prices in the future. Hence, such commentators hold that policies that counter deflation will also counter the slump.
If deflation leads to an economic slump then policies that reverse deflation should be good for the economy.
When the history books are finally written, I believe the tone-deaf handling of the refugee crisis by EU bureaucrats will be seen as one of the primary catalysts in the ultimate disintegration of the European Union.
Although I knew many millions across the eurozone were irate about how the refugee crisis was being handled, I had no idea how irate they were until I read the results of a recent survey by the Pew Research Center.
Unable to keep the $400 million cash drop to Iran off the front pages, the Obama administration came out swinging today with denials, conspiracy-theory-accusations, and allegations of biased reportingas the mainstream media was forced by the striking actions of The White House to ask uncomfortable questions. A bounce late in the US saw overnight gains for the Nikkei (1%+) with the Hang Seng and Shanghai. We had to wait for confirmation of what everyone was taking as a done deal from the Old Lady but that was soon to materialise at lunchtime. The Bank’s pre-emptive ?170bn stimulus package is brave – and unquestionably the right thing to do in these dramatic circumstances – but it is not an economic bazooka and much of the boost will leak into asset price inflation. There is a world of difference between a $100,000 a year energy industry job and a $10 an hour job running a cash register at Wal-Mart. All pretty much well behaved for thin summer trading and it was we were looking forward to both the Bank of England and tomorrow Non-Farms report. You can comfortably support a middle class family on $100,000 a year, but there is no way in the world that you can run a middle class household on a part-time job that pays just $10 an hour.
Many dealers pointed to the turnaround for the price of oil but given we have seen a weakening in prices for a while this could also be just a relief rally. NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, COMMODITIES, OPTIONS, BONDS, OR FUTURES. The quality of our jobs matters, and if current long-term trends continue unabated, eventually we are not going to have much of a middle class left. ACTIONS YOU UNDERTAKE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF ANY ANALYSIS, OPINION OR ADVERTISEMENT ON THIS SITE ARE YOUR SOLE RESPONSIBILITY.
At this point the middle class has already become a minority in America, and according to the Social Security Administration 51 percent of all American workers make less than $30,000 a year right now. We have a desperate need for more higher paying jobs, and that is why what is happening in the energy industry is so deeply alarming.
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