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This report presents population projections for Ontario and each of its 49 census divisions, by age and gender, from the new base year of 2015 to 2041.
The Ministry of Finance produces an updated set of population projections every year to provide a demographic outlook reflecting the most up-to-date trends and historical data. The projections do not represent Ontario government policy targets or desired population outcomes, nor do they incorporate explicit economic or planning assumptions. The Ministry of Finance projections provide three reasonable growth scenarios for the population of Ontario to 2041.
Under all three scenarios, Ontario’s population is projected to experience moderate growth over the 2015a€“2041 period. In any given year, the contributions of natural increase and net migration to population growth vary. Net migration levels to Ontario have averaged about 77,000 per year in the past decade, with a low of 52,000 in 2006a€“07 and a high of 96,000 in 2011a€“12.
Net migration is projected to be higher at the beginning of the projections than it has been during the past few years as net losses of population through interprovincial migration have recently turned to gains and federal immigration targets were raised by a significant amount. Future levels of natural increase will be affected by two main factors over the projection period. The second major factor influencing the future path of natural increase in Ontario is the transition of large cohorts of baby boomers into the senior age group. Overall, natural increase is projected to be fairly stable around 55,000 over the first decade of the projections, followed by a steady decline to less than 17,000 by 2040a€“41. By 2041, there will be more people in every age group in Ontario compared to 2015, with a sharp increase in the number of seniors. The median age of Ontario’s population is projected to rise from 41 years in 2015 to 45 years in 2041. By the early 2030s, once all baby boomers have reached age 65, the pace of increase in the number and share of seniors is projected to slow significantly. The proportion of women among the oldest seniors is projected to remain higher than that of men but declines slightly as male life expectancy is projected to increase faster. The growth rate of the population aged 15a€“64 is projected to continue to trend lower until the mid-2020s. Within the 15a€“64 age group, the number of youth aged 15a€“24 is initially projected to decline slightly, from a high of 1,827,000 in 2015 to a low of 1,725,000 by 2022. The main demographic determinants of regional population growth are the current age structure of the population, the pace of natural increase, and the migratory movements in and out of each of Ontario’s regions.
The current age structure of each region has a direct impact on projected regional births and deaths.
The general aging of the population will result in a rising number of census divisions where deaths will exceed births (negative natural increase) over the projection period.
This declining trend in natural increase means that many census divisions in Ontario where natural increase previously was the main or even sole contributor to population growth have already started to see their population growth slow. Migration is the most important factor contributing to population growth for Ontario as a whole and for most regions. Large urban areas, especially the GTA, which receive most of the international migration to Ontario, are projected to grow strongly.
The GTA is projected to be the fastest growing region of the province, accounting for over 68 per cent of Ontario’s net population growth to 2041.
In the past, Northern Ontario’s positive natural increase offset part of the losses it experienced through net migration.
The GTA is expected to remain the region with the youngest age structure, a result of strong international migration and positive natural increase.
Even as the share of seniors in census divisions located in and around the suburban GTA is projected to remain lower than the provincial average, the increase in the number of seniors in this area will be the most significant.
The number of children aged 0a€“14 is projected to decline in the North, but to increase in the rest of Ontario over the projection period. While the share of population aged 15a€“64 is projected to fall in every census division of the province, the number of people in this age group is projected to increase in 14 of the 49 census divisions, mainly in the GTA, Central Ontario and urban areas of the East and the Southwest. The methodology used in Ministry of Finance long-term population projections is the cohort-component method, essentially a demographic accounting system. A separate analysis and projection of each component of population growth is made for each year, starting with births. It should be noted that the population projections are demographic, founded on assumptions about births, deaths and migration over the projection period.
This report includes demographic projections released by the Ministry of Finance that use population estimates based on the 2011 Census adjusted for net undercoverage.
As well as providing a new starting point for total population by age and sex, updating the projections to a new base alters the projected age structure and population growth in each census division. The projected number of births for any given year is obtained by applying age-specific fertility rates to cohorts of women in the reproductive age group, ages 15 to 49. Assumptions are based on a careful analysis of past age-specific fertility trends in Ontario and a review of fertility trends elsewhere in Canada and in other countries. The decline in the fertility rate among young women is accompanied by a rise in fertility rates among older women. Fertility rates of women in their 30s and older, which were rising moderately over the 1990s and more rapidly over most of the 2000s, have shown a slower pace of increase in the most recent years. Fertility rates are unlikely to return to the highs observed in the 1950s and early 1960s. The projected number of deaths each year is obtained by applying age-specific mortality rates to population cohorts in corresponding ages.
The province of Ontario has one of the highest levels of life expectancy in Canada and among the countries of the developed world. Up to the mid-1990s, annual gains in life expectancy were getting somewhat smaller and it was expected that future improvements would continue at this slowing pace.
In the reference scenario, life expectancy in Ontario is projected to continue increasing linearly over the first decade of the projection, followed by a gradual slowing in the rate of increase. For low-and high-growth scenarios, assumptions of life expectancy at birth at the end of the projection period are first developed. Under the assumptions on mortality for each of the three scenarios, male life expectancy is expected to progress at a faster pace than female life expectancy.
At the census division level, the mortality assumptions were developed using a ratio methodology. An analysis of the ratio of actual-to-expected deaths for each census division did not reveal a consistent pattern or movement toward a convergence or divergence among regions over time. For this reason, the recent three-year average ratio for each census division was held constant over the projection period. The following sections discuss assumptions and methodology for the components of net migration, including immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents, interprovincial migration and intraprovincial migration.
Over the past 20 years, the target range has been increased gradually by successive federal governments. Since 2007, federal immigration policy has changed, with a goal of spreading immigrants more evenly across the country primarily through the expansion of the provincial nominee program.
Once the long-term immigration rate is reached, the number of immigrants increases over time as population grows.
Projected immigration shares for each census division are based on the trends observed in the distribution of immigrants by census division over the recent past. Total emigration is defined as the gross flow of international emigration, minus returning emigrants, plus the net variation in the number of Ontarians temporarily abroad. The number of emigrants is difficult to estimate with a high degree of accuracy because of incomplete information. In the reference scenario, the average emigration rates by age and sex for each census division observed over the past five years are used to model the projected number of people emigrating annually from each census division. The projected number of people, by age and gender, emigrating from each census division for each year of the projections is modelled using the average emigration rates by age and gender for each census division observed over the past five years. The year-to-year change in their total number must be accounted for as a component of population growth. Over the past 30 years, Ontario has gained on average 7,600 non-permanent residents annually. Projected shares of non-permanent residents for each census division are based on the share held by each census division in 2015.
Interprovincial migration is a component of population growth that fluctuates significantly from year to year. In the reference scenario, annual net interprovincial migration for Ontario reflects recent trends in the short term. In the low-growth scenario, net interprovincial migration for Ontario is set at zero for 2015a€“16, 2,500 for 2016a€“17, and gradually falling to a net outflow of 5,000 from 2019a€“20 onwards.


The annual in-flows corresponding to the long-term net migration levels in the low-growth, reference and high-growth scenarios are 62,500, 65,000 and 67,500 respectively.
Each census division’s share of Ontario inflow and outflow of interprovincial migrants over the last five years is applied to projected flows for the province and held constant throughout the projection period. At the census division level, intraprovincial migration, or the movement of population from one census division to another within the province, is a significant component of population growth. The annual number of intraprovincial migrants in Ontario has fluctuated within the 350,000 to 430,000 range over the past 20 years. The projected number of people, by age, leaving each census division for each year of the projections, as well as their destination within the province, is modelled using the origin-destination migration rates by age for each census division over the past five years. The evolution of intraprovincial migration patterns in each census division was studied to identify specific trends and the intraprovincial migration rate assumptions were adjusted to account for these trends. The Greater Toronto Area, comprised of the census divisions of Toronto, Durham, Halton, Peel and York.
A method of mortality projection proposed by Lee and Carter used to generate annual age-sex specific mortality rates.
The median age is the age at which exactly one half of the population is older and the other half is younger.
Difference between the number of people entering and the number of people leaving a given area. Difference between the number of people not counted in the Census who intended to be enumerated and the number of people counted who should not have been enumerated or were counted more than once.
In demographic terms, population aging refers to an increasing share of seniors (ages 65+) in the population. Measures historical resident population using data from the most recent Census, in addition to administrative data on the components of demographic change (births, deaths and net migration) since the Census. In 2013, Genesis Fertility Centre became the first and only clinic in Canada to independently verify our pregnancy success rates.
Genesis Fertility Centre is the first fertility clinic in Canada to have independently verified pregnancy rates. We did this to improve transparency about our clinic’s pregnancy rates and make it easier for patients to understand our success rates. At Genesis, we ensure validity of our pregnancy rates annually through third-party auditing conducted by two independent, unrelated industry organizations: Fertility Authority, a leading authority in patient advocacy, and IVF Reports, an authority in IVF standards.
At Genesis Fertility Centre, we believe that singleton pregnancies are healthiest for mothers and babies as multiple implantations increase the risk of pre-term delivery and obstetrical complications. Between January 2011 and December 2012, Genesis’s elective and mandatory single embryo transfer rate was 18 per cent. In 2013, elective day-five single embryo (eSET) use increased to 76 per cent for eligible women under age 37.
Many patients now choose to freeze their embryos for later use rather than proceed with embryo transfer immediately.
We intend to post our pregnancy rates according to age, AMH levels and previous attempts on our website to allow patients to interpret their individual circumstances. The share of adolescents engaging in sexual activity has declined over the past few decades. 26% of female teens and 29% of male teens had more than one sexual partner in their lives. Although birth rates have fallen for teens of all races and ethnicities, the rates for African American, Hispanic and Native American teens are over twice the rates of White and Asian American youth (Figure 2).
Compared to older adults, sexually active teens and young adults are at higher risk for acquiring STIs, due to a combination of behavioral, biological and cultural factors.
HPV is the most common STI among teens, with some estimates reaching an infection rate of 35% of 14-19 year olds.14 Currently, there are two vaccines (Gardasil and Cervarix) that protect against strains of HPV associated with cervical cancer and genital warts. Girls and women 15 -19 years old had the largest number of reported cases of Chlamydia and Gonorrhea in 2011 of any age group. Today, 38 states require some level of parental involvement in a minor’s decision to have an abortion, up from 18 states in 1991.
The Affordable Care Act (ACA) requires private insurance plans that offer dependent coverage to children to extend that coverage to young adults up to age 26. Information on this web site is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as a substitute for the advice provided by your physician or other healthcare professional. These projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance and are an update to the projections released in January 2015, based on the 2011 Census. This update is based on the new 2015 population estimates from Statistics Canada and includes minor changes to reflect the most recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration. The medium, or reference scenario, is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue. They are developed using a standard demographic methodology in which assumptions for population growth reflect recent trends in all streams of migration and the continuing evolution of long-term fertility and mortality patterns in each census division. In the second half of the projections, the contribution of natural increase moderates as baby boomers increasingly reach senior years and the number of deaths increases more rapidly. The growth in the share and number of seniors accelerates over the 2015a€“2031 period as baby boomers turn age 65. Regions where natural increase and net migration are projected to become or remain negative see the largest shifts in age structure. The medium-growth or reference scenario is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue. While natural increase trends evolve slowly, net migration can be more variable, mostly due to swings in interprovincial migration and variations in international immigration. First is the passage of the baby boom echo generation (children of baby boomers) through peak fertility years, which results in an increase in the number of births through the late 2010s and early 2020s. By 2031, all baby boomers will be 65 or older and the number of deaths starts to increase more rapidly. The share of population growth accounted for by natural increase is projected to decline from 32 per cent in 2015a€“16 to 11 per cent by 2040a€“41. The median age for women climbs from 42 to 46 years over the projection period while for men it is projected to increase from 40 to 44 years. In 2015, for the first time, seniors accounted for a larger share of population than children aged 0a€“14. Demographic trends vary significantly among the 49 census divisions that comprise the six geographical regions of Ontario. A region with a higher share of its current population in older age groups will likely experience more deaths in the future than a region of comparable size with a younger population.
Deaths exceeded births in 24 of Ontario’s 49 census divisions over the past five years. For other regions such as Central Ontario, the continuation of migration gains from other parts of the province will be a key source of growth. Regions where natural increase and net migration are projected to become or remain negative see the largest shifts in age structure. However, by 2041 the share of children in every region is projected to be slightly lower than it is today. The Ontario-level population is obtained by summing the projected census division populations. Assumptions are based on the analysis of the long-term and the most recent trends of these components, as well as expectations of future direction. Specifically, the projections use Statistics Canada’s preliminary July 1, 2015 postcensal population estimates as a base.
It also has an impact on many components of population growth that are projected by using age-specific rates, such as births, deaths and several of the migration streams.
A general and common trend is that a growing proportion of women are postponing births to their 30s and early 40s. Over the past 20 years, teenage girls and women in their early 20s have experienced the sharpest declines in fertility rates. Rather, it is believed that relatively small fluctuations around values below the replacement level are more likely.
Trends in the evolution of the TFR in each census division over the past fifteen years show no convergence of TFRs by census division.
Assumptions of future age-specific death rates are derived2 from trends observed over the 1971a€“2010 period related to the pace of improvement in overall life expectancy and the age patterns in mortality. However, over the past decade, annual gains in life expectancy have picked up and are rising in a more linear trajectory. This is consistent with recent trends where males have recorded larger gains than females. The Ontario-level mortality structure was applied to each census division’s age structure over the most recent six years of comparable data and the expected number of deaths was computed.


The federal Minister of Citizenship and Immigration sets the national target and target-range for the level of immigration to be achieved over the following year.
The modelling is dynamic, taking into account the annual changes in age structure within census divisions. These foreign residents are included in the base population as they are counted in the Census. Determining assumptions for this component is complicated by the significant annual fluctuations and the transient nature of this group. The reference scenario reflects long-terms trends in the annual change in the number of NPRs by setting the long-term yearly gain to 7,500.
The age-sex distribution of non-permanent residents is based on the average of the last five years.
Although Ontario remains a major province of attraction for migrants from some other provinces, trend analysis of the last three decades reveals a mixed pattern of several years of gains followed by several years of losses. Since 2003, net interprovincial migration to Ontario has been negative, largely due to net outflows to Alberta. Over the projection period, the annual number of intraprovincial migrants increases gradually from 371,000 in 2015a€“16 to 426,000 in 2040a€“41.
For example, the birth cohort of 1966 consists of the number of persons who were born in 1966. This includes all the migration components included in net international migration, net interprovincial migration and net intraprovincial migration (for sub-provincial jurisdictions). This is a measure by which Statistics Canada adjusts the Census counts to produce population estimates.
Indicates the average number of children that a generation of women would have if, over the course of their reproductive life, they had fertility rates identical to those of the year considered. Despite the growing attention to prevention and health education, recent data indicate that the rates of unintended pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections (STI) remain higher for young adults than older adults and higher than the rates in most developed nations. In 2006-2008, 11% of sexually experienced female teens had used Plan B, the first major method of EC in the U.S.
You should not use the information on this web site for diagnosing or treating a health problem or disease, or prescribing any medication or other treatment.
The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a reasonable forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth.
As baby boomers turn age 65, the growth in population aged 15a€“64 slows until 2027a€“28 and then accelerates over the remainder of the projection. The GTA is expected to remain the region with the youngest age structure as a result of strong international migration and positive natural increase.
The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth.
As a result, natural increase has been fairly stable at about 50,000 annually over the last decade. Births are projected to increase from 148,000 in 2015a€“16 to over 165,000 by the mid-2020s and remain above that level until the end of the projection period. Over the first decade of the projections, the pace of increase in the annual number of deaths in Ontario is projected to slow as the small cohorts born during the 1930s reach their life expectancy. However, this age group will still be growing much faster than the 0a€“14 and 15a€“64 age groups.
By the late 2030s, the number of children is projected to grow at a much slower pace than other age groups, reflecting the smaller number of women in their 20s and 30s. Similarly, a region with a large share of young adults in its population is expected to see more births than a region of comparable size with an older age structure.
This number is projected to rise gradually so that 37 census divisions are projected to experience negative natural increase by 2040a€“41. Some census divisions of Northern Ontario receive only a small share of international migration and have been experiencing net out-migration, mostly among youth, which reduces both current and future population growth. The populations of Lambton, Huron and Chatham-Kent are projected to decline over the 2015a€“2041 period.
For Ontario, the degree of uncertainty inherent in projections is represented by the range between the low- and high-growth scenarios, with the reference scenario representing the most likely outcome. The first of these parameters, the total fertility rate (TFR), reflects the level of fertility while the other three parameters (the mean age at maternity, the skewness and the variance of the distribution) reflect the timing, or age, at which women have their babies. Women in their late 20s had rapidly declining fertility rates over the 1990s and early 2000s, followed by a period of slower decline up to 2008. For this reason, the projected parameters for fertility at the census division level are modelled to maintain the regional differences.
The derived set of assumptions for the three scenarios for Ontario all reflect a continuation of the gains recorded in the average duration of life.
Thus, the overall gap between males and females has gradually decreased, and is projected to continue to do so. This was then compared to the actual annual number of deaths for each census division over this period to create ratios of actual-to-expected number of deaths. For the calendar year 2016, the target is set at 300,000, with a target-range of 280,000 to 305,000 immigrants. Over the rest of the projection period, the level of immigration is projected to increase gradually, in tandem with overall population growth, reaching 142,000 by 2040a€“41. The average age-sex distribution pattern for immigrants observed over the past five years is assumed to remain constant over the entire projection period.
For Ontario as a whole, this results in the number of emigrants increasing gradually over the projection period to reach 19,700 by 2040a€“41.
In the low- and high-growth scenarios, the long-term annual change in the stock of NPRs is set at 2,500 and 12,500 respectively. This increase over time reflects population growth and age structure changes at the census division level. Net international migration is the difference between the number of people entering and the number of people leaving the province from foreign countries. The first of these parameters, the total fertility rate, reflects the level of fertility while the other three parameters (the mean age at fertility, the skewness and the variance of the distribution) reflect the timing, or age, at which women have their babies. Websites may contain only biochemical pregnancy rates and use different denominators, making it virtually impossible for patients to compare the success rates of different fertility clinics. This fact sheet provides key data on sexual activity, pregnancy, contraceptive use, prevalence of STIs among teenagers and young adults, and access to reproductive health services. Population is projected for each of the 49 census divisions for the reference scenario only. From 2015 to 2024, the annual number of deaths is projected to rise from 94,000 to 109,000.
Also, since migration rates vary by age, the age structure of a region or census division will have an impact on the migration of its population. These 37 census divisions will represent 26 per cent of Ontario’s population in 2041. The census division of Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry is projected to experience population decline over 2015a€“2041.
All parameters used are calibrated to generate age-specific fertility rates that closely follow recent trends. Recent data point toward a faster rate of decline over the 2008a€“11 period for this age group. The census division-to-province ratio for mean age at fertility in the most recent period is assumed to remain constant. These ratios were then multiplied by provincial age-specific death rates to create death rates for each census division.
The long-term assumptions for each scenario are reached after a transition period of three years, moderating from the relatively high net gains observed recently.
Over the remaining years to 2041, the annual number of deaths increases faster, to reach almost 153,000. The variance and skewness of fertility distributions at the census division level evolve over the projection period following the same absolute changes of these parameters at the Ontario level. These were then applied to the corresponding census division population to derive the number of deaths for each census division.



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