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Three disclaimers must be clear from the start, in estimating the length of time it will take any family to conceive. In this article, we approach the research results with one math formula, but there may be more appropriate mathematical models for fertility based on a different set of variables. Rather than try to choose the correct probability, let’s run the math three times, using 20%, 25% and 30% as the chances to conceive in any one monthly cycle.
The math is the same whether the success is conceiving a child, drawing an ace from a deck of cards, or winning a jackpot in a lottery.
Let’s admit the possibility that this distribution might not describe the chance to conceive for a group of women. Decoded Everything is a non-profit corporation, dependent on donations from readers like you.


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Fertility declines rapidly after the age of 35, making it increasingly difficult to get pregnant, to stay pregnant, and to have a healthy baby. The geometric probability distribution is the model for this process of calculating the likelihood of success precisely in the nth trial. Where the probability is 20%, 25% or 30%, then the expected number of monthly cycles to become pregnant should be 4, 3 or 2-3 months for those probabilities.
And if you are over 40 and trying for a baby, make sure you talk to your doctor and follow our tips for getting pregnant after the age of 40.
While pregnancies over the age of 50 are rare, they do occur both naturally and, more often, through medical interventions like IVF or egg donation.


Some of the other factors that have to be taken into consideration are financial, emotional, physical, and social. While this is good news for older couples who want to have natural children, should you put off your plans of starting a family?



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