The Stochastic indicator is quite a popular tool for commodity traders (including those interested in trading crude oil and precious metals) and it is not without a reason. Generally, the more long-term the nature of a given signal or trend line is, the more important it is. There were times then the buy signals (moments when the indicator – black line – moves above its average – red line) were real buying opportunities, but there were also a few cases when only very small rallies followed and then we saw declines. What’s even more interesting is that the last time that we saw this kind of sell signal was when crude oil was trading above $100. With a more reliable and evident signal from the weekly version of the Stochastic indicator, the overall implications of its analysis are bearish. Since we saw this kind of signal once again recently, it serves as a subtle clue that perhaps crude oil has corrected enough and is now ready to fall much further (or to the previous lows).


We have just seen 2 signals from this important indicator – one bullish (based on daily closing prices) and one bearish (based on weekly closing prices). It is not only the case with gold and mining stocks that the Stochastic indicator based on weekly prices is much more reliable than the one based on daily prices (by the way, we have just published general gold trading tips in the Research section on our website, which you might find useful) – it is the case also with the crude oil market.
By a sell signal we mean a situation when the indicator breaks below its average while being above the 80 level (overbought).
This means that banks, investment firms and long term investors will start to draw their investments which would include equities, gold, silver, oil etc… pulling all investments down. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.
This means that banks, investment firms and long term investors will start to draw their investments which would include equities, gold, silver, oil etc… pulling all investments down.


At this point, chasing stocks in either direction will only satisfy the desires of the smart money, who will likely blow these anticipatory traders into trading fodder in coming weeks. It is hard to say where price is heading in the short term, but from a fundamental perspective oil has some positive bias with increasing demand coming from emerging markets and a slowdown in future supply. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions.



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