CME Group foreign exchange (FX) volume averaged 838,000 contracts per day, up 50 percent from April 2014. If an investor bought one call contract from an option writer, the investor is long one contract, the writer is short one. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions.


As such, options on gold have spent much of the past several months trading near a record low in terms of implied volatility (Figure 1). In gold, as in equities, implied volatility tends to rise when prices are falling more so than when prices are rising. Sounds like you bought gold as a quick-hit profit - instead of as an insurance policy - and you got hosed.


Measured daily over the period from November 2010 to July 2015, the correlation between changes in implied volatility on three-month constant maturity options on gold futures and gold prices, stood at -0.38.



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