As Credit Suisse and Deutsche withdraw capital from their investment banks, capital-heavy jobs in fixed income trading will almost certainly suffer. Single name credit default swap (CDS) traders have been on a conspicuous downer ever since Deutsche Bank pulled back from single name CDS trading in October 2014.  Morgan Stanley points out that single name CDS volumes have dropped more than 70% in response to regulatory pressures. A high proportion of the FX spot and forward market is already trading electronically and this is likely to increase.

2014 was a record year for trading collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). This could be about to change.
The Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) is expected to prompt banks to shrink their credit balance sheets by up to 15%.
As regulators push for increased electronic trading in the wake of the FX fixing scandal, Morgan Stanley estimates that up to 80% of the spot and forward FX market will be traded electronically in future.

QE and continued issuance should mean that credit trading remains strong in Europe though….

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