According to the above figures, on wednesday the 7th, we are on a Backwardation situation, where the futures price (3 month) is currently lower than the spot price due to the previous factors.
September proved to be a good month for commodity traders who chose to bet against energy prices. Michael King, one of the portfolio managers at Merchant, said in September that Brent crude could drop to $95 a barrel over the next few months.
Bearish bets on WTI crude are currently at their highest levels in 22 months, according to the weekly update from Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Meanwhile Duet Commodities was down .34% in September, according to a monthly letter seen by ValueWalk.


Not everyone had the luck of Merchant Commodity, as Armajaro Commodities Fund slipped 5% in the last month, reducing its return for the year to a loss of nearly 9%.
It’s the largest spot requirement in recent months, it’s to anticipate a potential increase in domestic demand for the gasoil in summer.
Leading the way once again is Merchant Commodity Fund, which bagged a whopping gain of 13.8% in the last month alone, pushing up its total return for the year to over 30%. This has caused widespread panic in the Financial markets meaning that the commodities producers where the first affected. The IMF reported that China absorbs half of the industrial metals produced, thus exporting countries and commodity companies may suffer from this slow-down.


Brevan Howard‘s Commodities Strategy plunged 11% in September, wiping out all of its gain for the year to a loss of 8% YTD.
During the summer, Saudi Arabia have to export less and import more to prevent any shortage in their stock, because they face some of its higher increase in oil demand, and all of it raise some market concerns about its export potential during those months which could possibly raise the Gasoil price as well. The Saudi Arabia’s demand for gasoil for transport also increase during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is expected to start on June 18 this year, primarily because of the thirst they develop due to their fasting period and to high temperatures.



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