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28.03.2016
A report commissioned by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) plotting the likely progress of battery technology and cost over the next couple of decades predicts a dramatic drop in price, adding to evidence that electric cars will soon become much more affordable.The report’s most conservative estimate for a Nissan LEAF-sized pure-electric car would see the cost of a battery pack falling to just over half the current cost by 2020.
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A chemical reaction between the battery fluid (electrolyte) and cells within the car battery produces electricity.
The most optimistic scenario would see the cost falling to significantly less than half the current level.The CCC’s interest in electric vehicles stems from its remit to advise the UK government on climate change issues and the setting of carbon reduction targets.
It reckons that greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by at least 80% of 1990 levels by 2050.
And it further believes that this can only be achieved by the ‘electrification of drivetrains’.Looking even further out, the report’s authors reckon that by 2030, the average battery pack cost could fall to less than one third current levels, with range rising to 155 miles – a LEAF currently has a quoted range of just over 100 miles. Battery pack weight would also dramatically reduce by 2030 from a current average of 300kgs to just 180kgs.While not ruling out a breakthrough battery technology emerging in the next couple of decades, the report’s authors – who gathered information from battery maker Axeon and world-leading lithium electrochemistry expert Professor Peter Bruce – clearly believe that this is unlikely. So the lithium-ion batteries that dominate the current crop of modern EVs will be developed and refined up until at least 2030.But what about post-lithium ion tech? Well, the report concludes that lithium-air batteries will emerge as the battery of choice, with vastly higher specific energy that could provide a driving range of at least 300 miles.


That, the report says, "will not be possible with lithium-ion."The study also details the huge increase in the use of lithium-ion batteries in consumer goods such as mobile phones and laptops, and the massive impact that has had on costs. In 1999, 100 million mobile phones were sold globally – by 2011, that number had increased to 1.4 billion. As for sales numbers, the report’s most optimistic forecast would see 16 million electric cars sold every year by 2020 – that’s assuming aggressive R&D, marketing and continuing government support. Take a look at the full report here, look into your own crystal balls and drop us a note in the comments below.



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