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07.09.2014
By Matt L, on May 9th, 2016Last week the government announced a package of options to try and boost the number of electric vehicles in New Zealand including the extremely idiotic move of allowing electric vehicles in bus lanes – something that even seems to have surprised our transport agencies. Hybrid vehicles that use a combination of a petrol or diesel engine, a battery or an onboard electric motor are not included in this definition of electric vehicles because their batteries cannot be charged from an external electricity source. If we are to meet the government’s target, growth levels will need to remain at an exponential level for five years. But again while the growth is heading in the right direction, they represent only a tiny fraction of all vehicle registrations with the data showing that over the last year an average of over 23k light vehicles are being registered each month.
Trying to predict forward just what percentage of vehicles will need to be electric in 2021 is a little difficult though because as the graph below shows, unsurprisingly the car market appears to be linked closely to economic cycles- although I haven’t bothered to look at that issue more closely. Getting a greater range of EV’s and having them in a price range more people are prepared to pay (as much as we may want a Tesla), will be critical to improving the uptake of them. By Matt L, on May 6th, 2016The government want to increase the currently dismal uptake of electric vehicles, increasing the numbers on our roads from about 1,200 to 64,000 in just 5 years. Access by electric vehicles to bus and high occupancy vehicle lanes (lanes where a vehicle must have more than a certain number of occupants) will be of value to households and businesses. Access to such lanes will mean electric vehicles will be able to travel more quickly than vehicles otherwise held up in traffic. At the same time, the changes will also empower road controlling authorities to allow electric vehicles into special vehicle lanes (such as bus lanes) on their local roading networks.
The Government will make changes to the Land Transport Act and Rules to allow electric vehicles to drive in bus and high occupancy vehicle lanes on the State Highway network, which it controls.
The introduction of bus lanes meant that far more people have been able to be moved along many key corridors than they would have otherwise. Adding electric vehicles to this, which will mostly be carrying only a single occupant, will undo some of the benefits and make buses less efficient. Enforcement will be much harder as it is difficult to tell which vehicles are electric and which ones aren’t. Currently electric vehicles are more expensive than their fossil fuelled counterparts and the biggest buyers of them seem to businesses for fleet cars.
Perhaps to help address this issue, Auckland Transport now more than ever need to fast-track the conversion of key bus routes to Light Rail. In seriousness, a key reason for looking at light rail on the isthmus is about trying to relieve bus congestion on some corridors. Overall this is a terrible idea, unless of course you drive an electric car already or are planning on getting one.
By Peter Nunns, on January 15th, 2015Last year we started to take a look at an emerging technology that some claim will revolutionise urban transport – driverless cars. While driverless cars (or hoverboards for that matter) sound exciting, we can’t afford to pin all of our hopes on them. If we want a safer, more efficient, and more environmentally friendly transport system, we can achieve it now by making smart policy changes. But, for the sake of argument, let’s say that we did want to wait for driverless cars to solve our self-imposed problems. First, how long it takes until driverless cars are proven and widely available for purchase in New Zealand. People have spent a lot of time thinking about the first two points, but I haven’t seen any commentary on the third one. Obviously, uptake of hybrid and electric vehicles has been faster in some places than others. But even here, in this wealthy, environmentally conscious city of 90,000 west of Los Angeles, only a core group of owners has switched from traditional gasoline-powered cars.
In other words, after a decade, over 80% of Santa Monica’s car fleet is still composed of conventional petrol cars. Regarding the development of new transport technologies, key actors (above all the automotive sector) have failed to convert technological progress into substantive improvements in energy efficiency and vehicle emissions or more broadly transform modes of accessibility in cities. The clear implication is that if we want better transport outcomes, we must implement better transport policies. By Matt L, on December 23rd, 2014Electric cars are often touted as the next big thing in transport, removing one of the major effects of vehicle use – emissions. By John Polkinghorne, on August 7th, 2014It’s been a while since the last post in this series on electric vehicles (here are parts one, two and three), but this post is number four. This post is about the cost of electric vehicles – the main reason they’ve been so slow to take off.
As discussed in part two, electric motors use a lot less energy than a traditional car engine. This gives a cost of $5 per 100 km – certainly much cheaper than a typical petrol car, which uses 10 litres of petrol to travel 100 km, costing around $22.00 at current petrol prices. However, a big chunk of the petrol price is tax, comprising a contribution to the National Land Transport Fund, and a bit to ACC as well.
As I’ve written previously, the long-term solution may be to make Road User Charges universal, although there are issues with this as well.
Diesel-electric hybrids, on the other hand, have to pay Road User Charges, so they end up paying the full whammy of costs (once the RUC-petrol tax discrepancy gets resolved in the next few years).
The graph below compares the lifetime running costs of several kinds of car, under several taxation scenarios. Setting aside environmental concerns, “range anxiety”, and all the rest, consumers will be prepared to pay the higher capital cost of electric cars, if they’re going to save enough money on their running costs. Overall, if you compare these running cost savings to the extra capital cost, it looks like the financial argument for BEVs and PHEVs isn’t quite there yet. There are ways of reducing this issue: for example, customers could lease electric vehicles, or buy the vehicles but only lease the batteries. At current price levels, BEVs have running costs that are only marginally lower than petrol-electric PHEVs, because these hybrids are only taxed on their petrol consumption. Since the costs associated with the road network are primarily dependent on the weight and number of vehicles using the road – and not on the litres of fuel used – the Road User Charges scheme arguably provides a more equitable way of charging for road use. By Matt L, on February 18th, 2014Buses are often the quiet workhorse of many PT systems running all sorts of routes from high capacity busway systems down to local services that connect suburbs to shops or train stations. In Auckland around 77% of all PT trips are made by bus and in the city centre about 32% of all people arriving in the CBD in morning peak are riding on one (trains are about 8%, cars 46%). The two concentrations of frequent east-west routes definitely look like they will need some bus serious priority to ensure they don’t all clog each other up, especially once less frequent and peak only services are added in. Yet while it appears we are going to need some busways through the CBD, I’m also aware that the negative perceptions about buses mentioned above will continue to be raised. I can’t help but wonder if perhaps the best solution is instead of pushing for buses to be removed from certain streets that those complaining instead push for the quality of buses to improve further benefiting everyone. The first is from the UK where in the town of Milton Keynes where inductive charging is being used to keep the buses topped up during the day.
The fleet will run on the Number 7 route, which covers 25km (15 miles) between the Milton Keynes suburbs of Wolverton and Bletchley and carries an estimated 800,000 passengers a year.
After a night charging at the depot, the buses will receive booster charges throughout the day at the start and end of the route. The second example comes from Zurich where a trial is under way using buses with batteries that can be topped up with flash charging in 15 seconds.
The system was designed by Zurich based electronics giant ABB with assistance from Geneva Public Transport and other city agencies. And lastly from New York where a trial has just successfully completed on a battery powered bus from Chinese company BYD which is able to work all day on a single charge – although I guess it would greatly depend on how long the route was.
BYD and the New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) concluded a pilot test on a BYD 40-foot, zero-emissions, battery-electric bus. The test period was from August 25 to October 25, totaling two months in service, with the final report data now summarized for distribution. The bus tested at MTA was supplied by BYD Motors and offers a range of 140-155 miles average between charges. The testing was carried out on different routes throughout Manhattan, covering a total distance during the trial of 1,481 miles.
The BYD all-electric bus “performed excellent” covering more than 140 miles per full charge in heavy traffic, according to company officials. There are probably other systems out there but that there does seem to be so many different options coming though does suggest trolley wire free electric buses are likely to play a big part in the future. So once again, perhaps instead of pushing for buses to be removed from certain areas due to noise and emissions that people should instead focus on how we can make them better. By John Polkinghorne, on February 11th, 2014So, electric vehicles (EVs) were looking pretty good in part 2. Advanced vehicles could make a sizeable contribution to emissions reduction in New Zealand.
As such, the potential for PHEVs and BEVs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions depends on low-emissions sources of electricity. In order for EVs to reduce emissions, there will have to be a major shift in the way the world generates power.
Of course, New Zealand is in a much more favourable position, with a large renewable electricity base.
Indeed, if New Zealand transitions to having more renewable electricity (we’re currently a little over 70% renewable, with aspirational targets of 90% by 2025), those emissions will drop even further. Recent reports about the declining cost of electric car batteries raise as many questions as they answer. The relatively high cost of lithium ion battery packs are often cited as the biggest obstacle to mass adoption of electric cars and plug-in hybrids. This week, the UK Committee on Climate Change issued a study (PDF) claiming that costs for lithium-ion automotive batteries currently come in at approximately $800 per kWh—translating the pack cost of a 93-mile-range EV (like the Nissan LEAF) to about $21,000. One could assume that the cost-per-kWh will occur in a stepped fashion between now and 2030, so that by 2020, the price of a pack for a car like the Nissan LEAF or Ford Focus Electric will be somewhere between where it is now, and a one-third slash while gaining two-thirds more energy storage. My colleagues at Pike Research target $523 per kWh as a target price at which plug-in electric vehicle take a step toward being competitive with petro-powered cars, a level that could happen by 2017. Confusion about current prices—or future costs to make EVs competitive—are exacerbated by comments from auto executives who claim they have already greatly reduced battery costs. I suspect that numbers will continue to get tossed around—low figures from automakers and high numbers from analysts. Just like the price of Solar PV Panels went down, battery price may also go down, since Hybrids, Plugins and EVs are using Batteries.
Getting back to the article, I note mention of an anticipated battery breakthrough that might occur in 2020 or shortly thereafter. There is one more aspect to the confusing numbers - are we talking about total capacity or usable ?
The cells which will be used in the Tesla Model S will not only be specifically for the automotive sector, but also developed by Panasonic in cooperation with Tesla. Your calculation assumes that a gas car would get 100 mpg as well, which is of course not the case. And again, of course the battery is included in the price of the car, so that calculation is only theoretical in the first place.
Or the way I would calculate it: Electric cars get about 3 miles per kWh (roughly, if not more). I don't think your accusation of "emotional crystal ball predications" is beside the point, I'm simply referring to quite common observations about battery cost development, both about the last 10 years and from people who are insiders about current developments, as well as from recently published studies which confirm this more or less. By reading into various cost reports and estimates, I don’t think that everyone’s Li-Ion (cell) costs are that different from each other, probably in the $450-500 range (as stated by ex-EV1 driver).
I'm swamped now and can't really join in you and Norbert's fight but you can be sure I'll start looking at this approach.
There are a lot of aspects to this matter reviewed by this article and the comments, but the key is that you first must ensure an apples to apples comparison. If you plan to charge in public, you'll want to sign up for charging network membership (or two). How do you ensure that electric car owners will be happy with every visit to your charging spot?
A major reason for the rapid jump in EV sales is the rapid drop in the cost of their key component -– batteries. In a major 2013 analysis, “Global EV Outlook: Understanding the Electric Vehicle Landscape to 2020,” the International Energy Agency estimated that electric vehicles would achieve cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles when battery costs hit $300 per kWh of storage capacity. So the best manufacturers have already reached the battery price needed for cost parity with conventional cars.
It may well be that $150 per kWh can be hit around 2020 without a major battery breakthrough but simply with continuing improvements in manufacturing, economies of scale, and general learning by industry.
While Tesla is slowing lowering the price of their electric vehicles (EVs), Nissan has already dropped the sticker price of the Leaf by 18% for a new price of $28,000. But this leaves the lower end of the market wide-open for exploitation, and an EV price war of sorts has set in.
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The good thing about falling prices of electric batteries is that for the current Volt price $40,000 automakers could add more batteries to extend the range of the EV’s to 150 to 200 miles per charge. You’d think with all the energy efficiency along with the increases in battery technology battery life would have increased from 2 hours to 20 hours.
I don’t expect technology is doing anything for us with the lowering of prices on the low end EVs. If Tesla is forcing other car manufacturers to put more game in their game it’s a great thing.
As for battery technology Tesla, Ford, GM, BMW and all the other car companies are not battery manufacturers. Battery manufacturers and startups are charging very hard to bring better batteries to the market. Way late to the thread, but Damascus Steel was used in the best swords prior to the technique dieing out in the the 1700’s. From the very first Model T’s, the efficiency of the internal combustion engine has improved a lot.


Are those in-hub motors or are the motor mounted close to the wheel and connected with short axles?
A new theory presented by Japanese automaker, Nissan, is about the possibility for an electric car owner for powering their homes using discarded electric car batteries. This is a new model of energy theory is working by Nissan in order to anticipate the near future trend of electric vehicles and the used batteries as additional household power storage after midnight hours, which normally cost half the price of electricity generated during day time. Hopefully, this way, could help EV owners to minimize electrical expenses as well as reducing the carbon footprint. The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline.
The cost of batteries is one of the major hurdles standing in the way of widespread use of electric cars and household solar batteries.
But research published recently in Nature Climate Change Letters shows battery pack costs may in some cases be as low as US$300 per kilowatt-hour today, and could reach US$200 by 2020. Falling prices will pave the way for what could be a rapid transition to a cleaner energy system. Last year, my colleagues and I analysed the cost-benefits of household battery storage alongside rooftop solar systems. Our analysis of ten studies published by research institutes and consultancies suggested a dramatic fall in battery cost over the next two decades, making solar power and electric vehicles more affordable. The new research by two Swedish researchers published in Nature Climate Change Letters this month used a similar approach but found an even sharper plunge. The core conclusion of the new paper is that the cost of full automotive Lithium ion battery packs has already reduced to around US$410 per kWh industry-wide. The analysis also estimated that the industry as a whole is currently seeing annual battery cost reductions of 14 per cent, while for leading players with already lower costs this is closer to 8 per cent. Assuming continued electric vehicle sales growth, the authors suggest costs as low as US$200 per kWh are possible without further improvements in the cell chemistry.
As battery costs decrease, technologies such as electric vehicles and household energy storage are likely to undergo a transition, from niche products in the hands of early adopters to standard acquisitions by pragmatic consumers. Increased opportunities naturally attract commercial competition, which has the potential to further accelerate the technological improvements. The findings published this month suggest that the transition from niche to mainstream product may well occur far sooner than people believe. Valentin Muenzel is PhD Candidate in electric vehicles and the electricity grid at University of Melbourne. The best Eco-Business stories, jobs and events delivered to your inbox – daily or weekly.
As part of the announcement they also set a target for how many electric vehicles they want to see in country.
The data from the Ministry shows that as of April there were just over 1,220 electric vehicles registered in the country and growth has been fairly strong on an annual basis there has often been over 100% growth compared to the same time the previous year.
Even if the total fleet size didn’t growth for the five years of the 64k government target, electrics would still account for fewer than 2% of all light vehicles.
The good news on this front is you can see there has definitely been growth and April was the biggest month yet with just under 100 vehicles registered with used full electric (Nissan Leaf’s I believe) the largest segment. Should the total number of light vehicles sold in 2021 remain at the level it’s out now, the 32,000 electric vehicles that would need t be sold in 2021 to meet the target would account for about 11% of all registrations. The MoT list the regions where the vehicles were registered and also by where they were last inspected which they say is the best guide for where they’re located. To do that yesterday they announced a package to encourage more people to buy an electric car. For example, the Northern Busway carries about 40% of all traffic crossing the Harbour Bridge during the morning peak – five lanes of traffic and 40% of the people are in fewer than 200 vehicles.
Of course as we know not a single HOV has used the busway because it’s performed above expectations.
It’s also worth noting that other parts of the announcement had sunset clauses on them of either time or a once a percentage vehicles went electric.
In addition, many drivers seem to exhibit a bit of a herd mentality and if they see a couple of drivers getting an advantage they’ll start to copy. It means the benefit of driving in bus lanes will likely be exclusive to a small(ish) group of early adopters.
Allowing electric vehicles to this mix will likely only mean Light Rail will have to happen sooner.
The busway is owned by the NZTA but most of the other bus lanes let’s hope that Auckland Transport are able to say no to his idea on local roads at least.
The pragmatic, proven way forward for transport in a big city is the same as it’s always been: Give people good transport choices by investing in efficient rapid transit networks, frequent bus services, and safe walking and cycling options.
Most people agree that the technology is improving and may be ready for wide deployment sometime in the next decade. Even after the introduction of driverless cars, most people will continue buying self-drive cars, which will dramatically slow the transition to a driverless fleet.
Fortunately, we can draw upon some real-world data to get a sense of how rapidly consumers take up new vehicle technologies. People are not rushing to give up their petrol (and self-driving) vehicles, even though there are now viable alternatives. And that’s about as good as it gets anywhere in the US, which is on the leading edge of many new trends in vehicle technologies.
Research on vehicle fleets in 19 countries shows that there are only two countries where hybrids and electric vehicles account for more than 1% of vehicle fleets. Slow rates of uptake for new vehicle technologies mean that they aren’t going to solve our problems any time soon. This is especially the case in NZ where we have such a large amount of our electricity generated from renewable sources. Today, I’m looking at the costs of these cars – both their running costs, and their capital costs. These cars are much more expensive than conventional cars, unless there are hefty subsidies involved. The latest generation of vehicles use lithium-ion batteries, which are much better at storing energy than the traditional lead-acid batteries you’ll find in your Corolla.
Let’s say that the car manufacturers are happy with a battery selling price of USD $500 per kWh, around $570 in NZ dollars. According to the MBIE, that’s around 77 cents per litre once GST is added on, or $7.70 per 100 km. That’s a real disincentive from buying diesel-electric PHEVs, so we’d expect them to be much less popular here.
In the graph here, for a car travelling 12,000 km a year for 25 years (perhaps a bit on the high side), and using an 8% discount rate, you’ll pay nearly $30,000 in running costs for a petrol car, compared with $7,000 for a BEV which is exempt from Road User Charges forever. This kind of scheme could allow the buyer to avoid the high up-front cost, which could be recouped over time through the running cost savings. Furthermore, even though diesel-electric PHEVs will be more efficient than petrol-electric PHEVs, they are likely to have higher running costs.
Yet for many, buses have anything but a quiet image, add in emissions and they are often thought of as noisy and smelly beasts.
As Jarrett Walker says, buses are like pedestrian fountains throwing people out into the city. The driver then lowers receiver plates on the bottom of the bus to within 4cm of the road surface and the bus is charged for around 10 minutes before resuming service.
Doing a 25km route all day also seems pretty impressive and assuming the bus is on time then a 10 minute charge at each end would simply be taking place while the bus was between runs so there is likely to be no passenger impact.
Buses are equipped with a laser controlled arm that sits atop the bus and automatically guides the contact mechanism to its mate in an overhanging charging station.
The TOSA system flash charges at a rate of 400 kW, allowing batteries to be topped off in just 15 seconds every few stops.
Charging is intended to only be completed at night during off peak hours to reduce unwanted demand on the grid, and takes only three to four hours to return to full capacity. We will probably have to wait to see which system ultimately ends up best but it’s definitely something we as a city should be thinking about.
Over the medium term electric buses are likely to be much more successful in replacing the existing bus fleet than electric cars would be. They’re much more energy efficient than regular cars, at least on a “tank-to-wheels” basis.
BEVs generate zero tank-to-wheels greenhouse gas emissions, and PHEVs only produce emissions when using their internal combustion engines. For much of the world, a shift towards these electricity sources will be needed if advanced vehicles are to play any part in reducing emissions.
For many of the world’s largest economies, EVs wouldn’t actually reduce emissions at all, based on the current mix of power generation. And, while renewable generation is growing, it still makes up a tiny fraction of the world’s electricity supply. This is around 17% of the level of emissions produced by a typical petrol car, illustrating the potential for major emissions savings”. Emissions could become essentially negligible for electric cars, or trains or buses for that matter.
The availability and price-competitiveness of electric cars will be determined by much larger markets – where the case for switching to advanced vehicles is much weaker. There are still some questions around whether they are the most cost-effective way of reducing emissions, and whether our power grid can handle them – and those things will need to wait for another day. While the tone of the report is cautionary, stating that there are no big battery breakthroughs anticipated before 2020, the UK study says that by 2030, prices are predicted to drop to $6,400 for an electric range of about 155 miles. Almost no normal consumers want a battery only car, they already have enouph problems with their cellphones and portable computers. He simply plants himself on these threads with the idea that his fantastic claims will draw our ire. I spent this past Saturday talking with engineers from GoE3, an Arizona-based company involved in setting up a nationwide network of Level 3 chargers, and scientists at Biosphere 2, where some fascinating research is going on in regards to related photovotaic research. While we don't have something approaching a Moore's law in regards to batteries just yet, it's obvious that what we have available today is better than what was here a decade ago. However the fact that they use the common 18650 format means that the mass production facilities for producing 18650 cells can be used, reducing cost. Compared to gas car with 25 mpg (which is about the current average) it would correspond to $2 per gallon, except that the price is included in the purchase price of the electric car (don't count it twice). There are many technologies in development with the potential to reduce cost a lot, and only one of them needs to succeed.
25 mpg is about the current average, your calculation does not factor in the inefficiency of gasoline engines.
That you even mention "ultracapacitor modules" in this context shows that you haven't done your homework yet. You will make your case better if you A) refrain from insulting the others here and B) break up your text a bit. At today's replacement cost that is 6 cents a mile to use the battery Assuming a 8% percent reduction in cost per year for batteries in 10 years that cost per mille falls under 3 cents per mile. The three most important influences were the economy of scale, a decrease in the cost of components and improved battery capacity. I'd like to pre order my Cadillac Escalade Electric, with 600 mile range and 200 KWH battery.
It doesn't matter how much the initial cost is, but if the repairs kill you down the stretch, it's not worth it.
The battery study from last month found that prices would need to drop under $250 per kWh for EVs to become competitive. The study projects that costs will fall to some $230 per kilowatt hour in the 2017 to 2018 timeframe.
And without a doubt, that price slide is going to continue as the price of batteries comes down.
The Tesla Roadster and Model S are the elite of the electric car world – and you pay for them with the Roadster fetching over $100 grand and the Model S sitting at about $62,500 grand after tax credits.
Meanwhile General Motors has announced that the next generation Volts will be $7,000 to $10,000 cheaper.
Well, with technological advancement comes price reeducation, which we have been waiting years for. The consumer gets a playing field of the gas powered cars competing with the EVs and hybrids. Andrew earned a Bachelor’s Degree in Government and International Relations from Clark University and a Master’s Degree in Political Science from Northeastern University. With a bit of overlap in coverage, we sometimes repost some of the great content published by our sister sites. So let say that the Nissan Leaf keep the price at $30,000 for the next five years, but at the same time double the range of the vehicle to 200 miles, more people will be interested in EV’s.
I spent a few minutes googling for it and wasn’t really convinced I found the right reference.
It was made from wootz steel from India, which plays a role in the Baroque Cycle by Stephenson. The Model T was reported to have a fuel economy of about 15 mpg, not far off today’s average SUV. People apparently were content with 2 hours of battery life and chose to buy the biggest screen and baddest cpu. However the SLS AMG electric does have 4 hub motors a 750hp total and goes around the Nurburgring under 8 min and is described by various car shows that were allowed a test drive to handle even better then the standard V8 in the front drive to the back variant.
So if you can put ex-car batteries in your house and charge up your batteries during the night at half the price, then run your house off the battery during the day, you save an awful amount of cost and you do your carbon footprint a fairly big favour,” Palmer said.
By storing surplus energy, batteries allow households to reduce power bought from the electricity grid. This cost development is notably cheaper and faster decreasing than I and many others expected.


The analysis therefore suggests that the cost of electric car batteries may be as low as $7,500 today and reducing to $5,000 by 2020.
Encountering difficulty in finding reliable sources of present and future lithium-ion battery costs, we published our own study on The Conversation. They report that since 2011 the number of electric vehicles worldwide has doubled each year. Market-leading manufacturers such as Nissan and Tesla are already seeing prices around US$300 per kWh.
It is therefore predicted that battery cost for all involved should converge to around US$230 per kWh in 2017-2018. This explains why, for example, Tesla Motors is making a US$5 billion dollar bet in the shape of a massive battery factory.
And given that the perceived unlikelihood of governmental clean technology commitments in Australia has apparently reached April-Fools’-joke-worthy levels, it seems about time.
In reality growth in the total fleet will mean that even if achieved, electrics will make up a tiny percent.
To be on track for the government’s target the numbers registered for each month to this December will need to surpass the April results. The Nissan Leaf is the most popular with 487 vehicles while the Mitsubishi Outland PHEV is second at 400 units registered. Most of the initiatives, such as extending the Road User Charges exemption on light vehicles and introducing an exception for heavy vehicles, are probably fine but one of the initiatives is completely nuts – letting electric vehicles us bus lanes and busways. On other corridors like Dominion Rd more than 50% of people are on the bus yet in both situations the lanes can look empty. We also know from the recent Grafton Bridge trial (that has now ended) that many drivers simply don’t follow the rules. If they can’t then the government have managed to neuter bus lanes and possibly set them back years. At the moment, the average NZ vehicle is around 13 years old, meaning that we’d expect it to take at least 13 years for half of the fleet to be renewed. Over the last decade, hybrid and electric cars have become commonly available, with cumulative global sales figures in the millions. A recent study from the US has found that hybrid vehicles’ market share has stayed low, even though car-makers have introduced many more new models. From the charging stations dotted around town to the dedicated public parking spaces — all provided at no cost by the city — Santa Monica has rolled out the welcome mat for electric cars.
Hybrids, which run on some combination of gasoline and battery power, account for 15.5 percent, the data says, but many of those are traditional hybrids, which do not require a plug-in cord for recharging. Norway (largely electric cars) and the Netherlands (mostly hybrids) were far and away the leaders in uptake, due to extraordinarily generous subsidies for buyers.
It is very likely that driverless cars, when or if they become readily available, will follow a similar pattern. A 2014 London School of Economics report on the state of urban mobility (pdf) described the dilemma of vehicle technology innovation well.
If we want to lower the road toll, we must invest in safe roads, including protected cycle infrastructure. But while electric cars might solve one problem, they certainly aren’t a silver bullet to all issues as so wonderfully pointed out in this image from Copehagenize. Again, I’ll abbreviate plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to PHEVs, and battery electric vehicles to BEVs – these are the “full” electric vehicles which don’t have an engine for backup. They’re also much more expensive, although the price is falling and will continue to do so. Adding to the uncertainty, early EVs will have been sold below cost, or at least at less-than-economic returns to the manufacturer, as they started to develop the technology. Since EVs also contribute to road wear and tear (and demand for new investment), and to accidents, they should also be paying something for this. Electricity providers would find this a straightforward extension to their business, and I believe a number of companies in New Zealand would look at running these schemes. Modern buses with have managed to address most of these issues – or at least significantly reduce them however the negative perception remains. We’ve talked many times before how the new bus network is a giant leap in the right direction for many reasons, one of which is that it uses buses much more efficiently. Future bus congestion is also a key reason why the CRL is so important as it allows more buses to act as feeders rather than having to trundle into town when that space could be better used for a bus from an area not served by the rain network. Below are three different trials in different cities of electric buses each using slightly different technology. This field induces a voltage across coils in the bus plates and the vehicle’s batteries are charged. Officials describing the system call it a truly zero-carbon emission system because the electricity to recharge the buses is generated using hydroelectricity. However, the well-to-wheels emissions for advanced vehicles depend on the source of electricity used to charge the vehicle.
The difficulties in doing so would be one reason for The Boston Consulting Group’s (2009, p.
22) points out that our “energy resources are plentiful and cheap by world standards… it is easier for New Zealand to commit to a low emissions electricity system than almost any other country”. We’ve got plenty of renewable electricity, but most countries don’t, and that means their power plants have much higher emissions.
As such, prices will not fall as quickly as they would if all countries had low-emissions electricity systems, and there might not be as many different models and variants available.
Only the volt make sense in my view but the price is steep and overall you don't save money. With the economies of scale ramping up the production output of existing technology, the batteries we know about today are bound to get cheaper in a few years.
Most of them involve increasing energy density as well, so that less material per kWh is needed. Using todays cost right now with electricity the volt in electric mode cost about a dime a mile. By the end of 2014, more than 700,000 total plug-in vehicles had been sold worldwide (plug-in hybrids and pure battery electrics), up from about 400,000 at the end of 2013. The more kWh stored, the further the car can go on one charge, so a key metric for battery economics is the cost per kWh. Tesla Motors and Panasonic have started building a massive $5 billion plant capable of producing half a million battery packs (plus extra batteries for stationary applications) a year.
Laptops once cost as much as a compact car; now you can get one for a week’s worth of minimum wage work.
Now, visionary CEO Elon Musk is aiming to bring a new Tesla to the masses in three to five years priced near $35,000.
Now that prices for EVs are coming down, and it looks like state and federal breaks are here to stay, at least for now, EVs could soon start selling in numbers that rival many gas-powered models.
In other words they know Tesla will wipe them out if they don’t get it together in the next two years.
In our previous work we estimated these levels to be reached only in 2018 and 2022, respectively. This seems to be the case in a recently filed lawsuit regarding rival battery chemistry patents involving BASF, Umicore, 3M, and Argonne National Labs. By collaborating with customers, utilities can develop more intelligent and versatile grids.
The 1,220 electric vehicles are made up of 659 full electric vehicles and 561 Plug-in Hybrids. But a bus lane that looks empty normally means it’s actually doing its job and allowing buses to flow, uninterrupted by congestion. As the results of that showed, it actually had the effect of slowing other road users, especially the general traffic.
Full replacement of every car on the road could take 25-40 years – a quick glimpse at Trademe shows that people are still buying and selling cars built in the early 1980s. While they tend to be more expensive to purchase, they offer savings on fuel costs and improvements in environmental performance. If we want a workable solution to congestion, we must build rapid transit infrastructure, bus lanes and walking and cycling improvements to give people the choice to avoid it.
It seems to be generally agreed that battery costs are now less than USD $500 per kWh, although manufacturers would obviously want to make a profit on those costs at some point, and there are taxes and other considerations as well. Therefore, an 8 kWh PHEV battery could cost $5,200, and a 33 kWh BEV battery might be around $21,450 – still not cheap by any measure. From my earlier posts, a vehicle running on electricity could use around 20 kWh to travel 100 km. We obviously can’t tax them through petrol, and it’d be pretty hard to do it through electricity prices as well, so the logical way to do it is through Road User Charges. This would more than double the running costs of BEVs, although they’ll still be cheaper than petrol cars. In my thesis, I assumed they average 3 litres of petrol per 100 km, although this will vary substantially. Someone might invent a transformational new battery chemistry (rather than lithium-ion), or we might simply see incremental advances. Despite this there will still need to be a lot of services travelling through the CBD as shown in the image below. This would not only disadvantage bus passengers (probably putting many off) but would also likely disadvantage many retailers due to reduced pedestrian flows past their premises. They noted also that such a bus system would be a big improvement over conventional electric buses that get their power from overhead lines and also other battery run buses that must be taken out of service periodically for recharging. These sources, of course, vary substantially between countries, with many countries generating the bulk of their electricity from coal or oil. 2) argument that conventional vehicle “technologies will be the most cost-effective way to reduce CO2 emissions on a broad scale”. True, they could help with energy security and wean countries off expensive oil imports (things I’ll look at in future posts), but there’s a lot of cost involved in buying into the technology, installing infrastructure and so on. As shown below, we can reduce our emissions significantly by transitioning to advanced vehicles. In any event, one of the things that these folks were particularly excited about was research concerning lithium air batteries, which, as this article details, is something we could see benefits from within the next 10 years . With the true brain power being expended on making today's batteries even better, it's inevitable that the state of the art will keep advancing.
Maintenance is nil except for tires and brakes (and with regen the brakes last a VERY long time) I'll go out on a limb here and predict that depreciation will be less for electrics.
As of 2015, dozens of models of electric cars and vans are available for purchase, mostly in Europe, the United States, Japan, and China.
And do not forget the federal and state breaks which will knock that price down a little bit more.
If the chart above provided by Deutsche Bank proves true, battery prices could plummet in the next decade. The EV and hybrid market has hit the mainstream, but consumers are wary of spending luxury-car-money on compact EVs. In his free time Andrew enjoys writing, exploring the great outdoors, a good film, and a creative cocktail.
Probably consumers were content with 15 mpg and chose to use that gain in efficiency to buy larger, more luxurious, safer, faster cars. And jointly, the penetration of intermittent renewables in our electricity mix can be increased significantly. Current rates of uptake for hybrid and electric cars suggest that it could take half a century or more for petrol cars to vanish from the road.
Things get a little less straightforward when you consider that the PHEV will cost a little more due to having both an electric motor and an engine, and the BEV will cost a bit less since its electric motor is quite a bit cheaper than the typical engine.
Indeed, EVs would normally be subject to these, but they’ve received an exemption for the time being (to encourage their uptake).
Drivers who only do short trips could end up using the electric motor for nearly all their driving. These sorts of ideas aren’t just unique to the CBD though and seem to pop up from time to time in other places too. They claim also that despite such frequent recharging, the batteries in the buses are expected to last for at least a decade.
In fact, for countries such as the US, UK, China and Australia, Matthew-Wilson (2010) estimates that the Tesla Roadster BEV would actually produce higher well-to-wheels CO2 emissions than the conventional Lotus Elise on which it is based. Matthew-Wilson (2010) estimates that in New Zealand, a Tesla Roadster would create less than one-third the CO2-equivalent emissions of a Lotus Elise.
Let him simply walk off the figurative building ledge as he attempts to extract the foot from his mouth and we'll worry about cleaning up the mess later. Right now today an electric costs less to operate than an ICE vehicle and it will only get better over time as battery technology improves. The Tesla Model S and Chevy Volt are expecting significant price cuts in the near future, and cars like the Nissan Leaf and Smart ForTwo Electric Drive have already shaved thousands from their MSRP. This is why the Tesla Model S has done so well; sure, it costs a lot of money, but it is a genuine luxury car as well.
That means that gas powered cars will have to step up their miles per gallon range (and they have) and maintain a reasonable price.
Perhaps that’s a sensible move, but it’s probably not something we’d still want to do in 20 years time when a growing number of cars are electric, and drivers of old cars will need to pick up the slack and pay more tax. The “marginal” cost you’ll pay for an extra unit of electricity, though, will be a bit lower.



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