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23.01.2016
Elon Musk has always called for a $35,000 Tesla, but one research firm says that the numbers just don’t add up. Stanphyl Capital Management looked at Tesla’s profit margins on the Tesla Model S, and figured out that the cost to build a 60 kWh Model S is about $59,559. So basically, Tesla is pulling down big numbers because it up-charges on optional features like you wouldn’t believe. According to Stanphyl, most rumors suggest that Tesla is spending about $260 per kWh for the Model S, putting the battery cost for the 60 kWh battery at about $15,600. So far, I don’t have any problems with Stanphyl’s math, but then the last couple of paragraphs get rushed and hurried, without nearly as much supporting math. I think the most obvious point to make here is that the Tesla Model E is an entirely new and different car from the Tesla Model S. There are other methods of keep the cost of a car down, and $8,000 for a major part of the Tesla’s drivetrain isn’t that far out of whack with many modern luxury cars.
Keep up to date with all the hottest cleantech news by subscribing to our (free) cleantech newsletter, or keep an eye on sector-specific news by getting our (also free) solar energy newsletter, electric vehicle newsletter, or wind energy newsletter. Christopher DeMorro A writer and gearhead who loves all things automotive, from hybrids to HEMIs, Chris can be found wrenching or writing- or else, he's running, because he's one of those crazy people who gets enjoyment from running insane distances. From the comments being posted it looks like people are expecting a model S for $35,000 and that is just not going to happen. No one knows what Tesla is paying for batteries now so all of this is nothing but guess work…. Tesla figures it can reduce the price of battery packs by 30% in 2017 and by 40% by 2020 once the Giga Factory is fully ramped up.
So when economies of scale kick in a 100k EV should be slightly cheaper than the equivalent petrol car, a 200k EV should be around $3000 more and a 300k (200 mile) EV should be around $7000 more than the equivalent ICE car. Which is a good starting fund for making the car nicer, with maybe a more powerful motor than a LEAF or a nicer interior than the LEAF.
This article is flawed 58kWh is more like it not 48kWh and in fact I think the finished car will do better. Just keep in mind that your aerospace professor has most likely built nothing worth mentioning in his entire life. Regardless, there are no hard, substantiated numbers in this study, so it is all a lot of guesswork.
50 kWh might be enough, if it is indeed smaller and significantly lighter than the Model S.
I don’t think the real question here is whether they can deliver 200 miles and $35,000. The real question is how much they will have to sacrifice to get to that figure- in terms of the base model’s appointments and performance, or lack thereof. At the opening of their newest store in Milan, Italy, Tesla executives gave an update on the Model S electric sedan, their upcoming EV. After the Model S Signature Series, deliveries for North America will continue with the 300 mile batteries, followed by 230 and 160 options later in 2012. We expect to produce approximately 5,000 units in 2012 as we ramp to full single shift production capacity of 20,000 units per year in 2013.
The price of the US base Model S with a 160-mile battery is $49,900 after the $7,500 federal tax credit. We are currently working on final pricing and options for Model S, including the Signature Series. When you think about it, compared to the $100K+ two-seat electric Roadster, the Model S is a pretty good bargain.
With the fluctuating (and generally rising) cost of gasoline in the United States, of course it can be a strain on one’s patience and wallet to shell out the cash for a fresh tank of petrol. But according to the posted numbers of one Model S owner, the cost of ownership for a Tesla Model S may be even smaller than we had ever anticipated. At this odometer count, the owner ended up replacing his tires as well, at a total expense of $1,131. ABOUT MOTROLIX Motrolix is a must-read for automotive news, car rumors, car reviews, and general information about vehicles. Join others in discussing vehicles in our car forums and browse car pictures in our gallery.
Also, please note that Motrolix is an independent publication and is not sponsored, owned, or in any other way condoned by any automaker, automotive brand, subsidiaries, or partners. Green Car Reports is carrying the story that the California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) has written a sharply worded letter to the California state Department of Motor Vehicles, accusing Tesla Motors of engaging "in a long-term advertising strategy to mislead consumers." The complaint is centered on the pricing calculator featured on Tesla Motors' website, which purports to give an "effective monthly cost" of owning a Tesla Model S. The CNCDA's nine-page letter lists about a dozen specific complaints with Tesla Motors' "True Cost of Ownership" page, most of which fall into two broad categories: savings that are calculated using outside credits or assumptions, and savings that are based on difficult-to-quantify or difficult-to-achieve metrics.
To be sure, some of those cost offsets sound a little dubious, and it's obviously in Tesla's best interests to make buying a Model S as attractive as possible. The cited study, available here, correctly points out that it requires a federal tax liability of at least $7,500 to receive the full $7,500 credit, and some quick and dirty calculation shows that a married couple filing jointly would need a combined household income of $76,000 or more to hit that mark.
Ultimately, the CNCDA's letter is the latest shot fired in a much larger war against Tesla's disruptive approach to selling vehicles. The material on this site may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used, except with the prior written permission of Conde Nast.


Announced today, a new financing plan makes it possible for buyers to get their hands on an 85 kWh Tesla Model S for a claimed $543 "effective monthly cost". You see, under Tesla's given scenario, you'll actually pay a 10% down payment ($7,990, based on the pre-incentive price of the 85 kWh Model S), and then $1,199 per month.
But this isn't your typical financing purchase; Tesla guarantees the resale value of the car during months 36-39 of your loan term at a fixed 43% of the purchase price. That 43% buy-back figure is based on the 12-month average resale value of a Mercedes-Benz S550.
Nevertheless, Tesla insists you'll save money with the purchase of a Model S--to the tune of $656 per month. Given that the only direct involvement Tesla has in this financing scheme is the guarantee of the buyback price (the financing itself is done through two independent banks), we assume Musk's "money" is the guarantee itself. Assuming a purchase price of $79,900 for a standard 85 kWh Model S, Tesla's guaranteed buyback will be worth $34,395.70. Problem is, after 36 months of repayment on your 66-month loan, you'll owe about $35,268.46.
So really, Musk is saying he'll guarantee Tesla will buy the car back from you for less than you've contractually agreed the car is worth at that point, putting $873 of your dollars where his mouth is. To be fair, Musk believes the car will be worth more than the 43% figure, and says the company will guarantee the resale value at the higher fair market value if so.
Now, of course, you'll have to maintain the car at a Tesla facility (or an officially approved maintenance center) in order to stay in compliance with the terms of the resale value guarantee. If you don't live in one of the states that offer incentives for EV ownership on top of the Federal $7,500 credit, you won't be saving any money--you'll in fact be adding $17 per month back onto the Model S's cost.
Adjusting the average premium gas price back down to $4.25 per gallon reduces the monthly "savings" of financing a Model S by another $50.
Too bad the study makes flawed assumptions. But it’s still worth asking if can Elon Musk really deliver a 200-mile EV for $35,000.
That means Tesla is earning over $10,000 per car right off the bat, but it’s the additional options that drive Tesla’s profit margins to over 25%, or about $25,000 on every $100,000 Model S sold, $100,000 being the average transaction price.
The Tesla Model E will likely need at least a 48 kWh battery to go 200-miles per charge, which would put battery costs $12,480. The study suggests Tesla could save around $3,000 per car via bulk ordering, $400 per car with smaller video screens or wheels, and another $664 in random savings, and Stanphyl thinks each and every Tesla Model E will cost around $48,000. It is likely to be smaller, lighter, less powerful, and less luxurious than than the Model S. First off, it may not have the $7,500 Federal tax credit to fall back on by the time the Tesla Model E comes to market.
Lithium NMC batteries are expected around that time at about 2x capacity per kg at 25% more price.
Not that there’s anything wrong with the LEAF, but Tesla has some high expectations to meet.
He only has bachelor’s degree in physics with no prior experience in building rockets. There is a good reason they cost 4 times as much and you better believe that before buying into the hype. According to people who have never done anything, every job is real easy, as long as someone else is doing it.
They simply cannot back down on either of those figures, they WILL deliver them no matter what. I’m just concerned that the Model E might have a fair bit more compromises than the already-comparatively-spartan Model S, especially compared to other cars in its price bracket.
George Blankenship, Tesla's Vice President for worldwide sales and "ownership experience" answered customer questions about pricing, battery option availability, and the delivery schedule. The 230-mile range option is expected to price at about $10,000 more and the 300-mile option at about $20,000 more than the base. Even the version with the 300 miles range battery pack is significantly less expensive, and for that price you get a much more family-friendly car that was designed and optimized from the ground up to be an electric car (unlike the Lotus-based Roadster).Obviously, it's still a luxury car that isn't accessible to most people. The cheaper running costs of plug-in hybrid and all-electric vehicles are one of many factors that are so appealing about them. The owner recorded his electricity usage over the course of 26,277 miles, reporting that the car had consumed 8,531 kWh of energy. But, according to the poster, many regions offer cheaper electricity at nighttime – at around 5 or 6 cents per kWh.
For example, the site displays a price for its vehicles that includes the $7,500 federal Plug-In Electric Drive Vehicle Credit, it adds monthly cost offsets based on the money a Model S owner will get when they eventually sell the car, and it adds monthly cost offsets based on time saved by using a carpool lane and not sitting at gas stations filling up. The CNCDA's complaints don't necessarily appear to be that Tesla is offering this information, but rather that it appears to be presenting to consumers a modified per-month cost that includes factors it deems specious—or that it believes violate automobile advertising laws.
Advertised Cash Price Quote Includes Tax Credit: This price quote is inclusive of potential claimed savings through federal tax credits. Last year, the Congressional Budget Office studied the efficacy of the federal tax credit for electric vehicles and concluded that only 20% of potential tax filers have the tax liability sufficient to qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit. First, Tesla Model S prices start at over $70,000, so buyers are likely to be high earners. It strikes us as particularly ludicrous to see an association of car dealers calling out a car manufacturer for what it sees as deceptive pricing practices, considering the lengths car dealerships have been accused of going to disguise and distort the same pricing information.


Musk has admitted the default settings of the "effective cost" calculator were mistakenly optimistic. If you don't live near one, you'll be shipping or driving the car both ways to get it maintained.
Even if you're in California, you could be looking at a couple hundred miles in each direction to get your car serviced. Tesla's calculator doesn't even begin to cover the complexity of state-by-state EV incentives and eligibility requirements. Tesla conveniently gives the national average cost of electricity ($0.11 per kWh), though actual cost varies widely by region and by season--even by time of day. If the Tesla Gigafactory lowers battery costs the expected 35%, tit will cost just over $8,000 for the Model E’s proposed 48 kWh battery pack. Stanphyl seems to think the only difference will be in the battery pack size and cost, but the Model E is going to need less of everything; less aluminum, less leather, less of everything. Also, a $35,000 Model E only works if battery prices continue to fall, and with a reveal rumored for next January, time is definitely working against Tesla. Maybe it will be a bit more for Model E with aluminum instead of steel but it should not be that far off. Did anyone tell the author that the new Tesla is NOT, in fact, a new trim level for the Model S? In the tradition of a limited-edition series, they will feature unique badging and an extensive complement of options.
Even if you consider the gas savings, which can be substantial over the life of the vehicle, the $50k model is still nowhere near "inexpensive".
If the consumption of electricity for all of these miles had been provided for by a home charger, then at the national average of 11 cents per kWh, that would equate to a paltry $938 total for fueling 2+ years’ worth of driving. Plan your trips and your living situation just right, and the cost of ownership for a Tesla Model S could provide a very meaningful source of savings. Much of the letter is concerned with calling out specific California statutes that the CNCDA alleges Tesla is violating. Whether the customer never applies for the credit, has insufficient tax liability to claim the full tax credit, or can claim the full credit, the tax credit has no bearing on the purchase price of the Model S.
By including the tax credit in the advertised price quote for the vehicle, Tesla is misleading 80% of the population of the actual purchase price of the vehicle, even net of the federal tax credit. Second, and far more egregiously, other car manufacturers show the same savings on their websites.
The settings have since been revised--to within $1 of our own estimate of the "effective cost" of an 85-kWh Model S. And that's on top of the required $600 per year service contract you'll buy to keep from voiding your warranty. But instead of national averages for premium gas prices, it lists an arbitrary average of $5 per gallon over three years. It could conceivably rise in the future (it has done it before) but the $5 figure as a three-year average is perhaps a bit pessimistic for those not living in California or the Northeast.
Perhaps the Tesla estimate is fair enough, especially considering the Model S's relative performance. But considering a $50,000 Tesla Model S was already sold (though swiftly cancelled), at least on paper Tesla should be able to pull this one off. If the Model E uses NMC and Gigafactory economies of scale, they could easily hit the numbers without options. I don’t think they would go so far as to have cloth seats standard, not on a $35,000 vehicle, but I fully expect cheapo plastics and a less-than-awe-inspiring touchscreen. If things don’t work out, the base model of the E will probably be appointed like a Camry.
Chevrolet, for example, advertises an MSRP of $26,685 for their electric Volt, with fine print immediately next to the price that says, "Price after tax savings. Tesla Motors' website still advertises a cost of $500 per month on its front page, however.
It's worth noting, however, that the 550i manages 333 miles on a tank of gas at EPA ratings, and the S550 manages 407 miles--and both can be refueled just about anywhere, in minutes.
Net price shown includes the full $7,500 tax credit." Even more egregious is that the Volt is targeted at a much less-affluent buyer than Tesla's offerings, so Volt buyers are statistically more likely to not qualify for the full credit.
But like I said he is a business man and we will only see the production of the car when he knows he will be able to successfully make money off of it.
Final assembly of the production-intent Beta vehicles will be done at the Tesla Factory this year and provide us with further testing and development opportunities.
It just takes a longer time with things like cars because the capital investments are enormous and the complexity is high. But if you're going to have a car, keep an eye on the progress of electric cars and plug-in hybrids.



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