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25.06.2014
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As you probably know already, the Nissan Leaf is the best-selling electric vehicle in the world at the moment. According to a Daily Kanban report, Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn said in an interview at Tokyo’s Business News Channel that the company is working on new batteries, which should offer double the current capacity. The Nissan Leaf will probably boast a 400 km (248 miles) range on a full charge, which is double compared to the current 202 km (126 miles) the car is rated to achieve in the city. However, in Nissan’s case, the battery size should remain the same, but thanks to technology advancements it will double its capacity. Rumors about Nissan doubling the range of the Leaf actually started earlier this year when former Nissan executive vice president and chief planning officer Andy Palmer, now CEO of Aston Martin, first mentioned about it, along with changes in the design department to make the car more appealing to a wider class of buyers. Recent reports about the declining cost of electric car batteries raise as many questions as they answer.
The relatively high cost of lithium ion battery packs are often cited as the biggest obstacle to mass adoption of electric cars and plug-in hybrids. This week, the UK Committee on Climate Change issued a study (PDF) claiming that costs for lithium-ion automotive batteries currently come in at approximately $800 per kWh—translating the pack cost of a 93-mile-range EV (like the Nissan LEAF) to about $21,000. One could assume that the cost-per-kWh will occur in a stepped fashion between now and 2030, so that by 2020, the price of a pack for a car like the Nissan LEAF or Ford Focus Electric will be somewhere between where it is now, and a one-third slash while gaining two-thirds more energy storage.
My colleagues at Pike Research target $523 per kWh as a target price at which plug-in electric vehicle take a step toward being competitive with petro-powered cars, a level that could happen by 2017. Confusion about current prices—or future costs to make EVs competitive—are exacerbated by comments from auto executives who claim they have already greatly reduced battery costs.
I suspect that numbers will continue to get tossed around—low figures from automakers and high numbers from analysts.
Just like the price of Solar PV Panels went down, battery price may also go down, since Hybrids, Plugins and EVs are using Batteries. Getting back to the article, I note mention of an anticipated battery breakthrough that might occur in 2020 or shortly thereafter. There is one more aspect to the confusing numbers - are we talking about total capacity or usable ? The cells which will be used in the Tesla Model S will not only be specifically for the automotive sector, but also developed by Panasonic in cooperation with Tesla. Your calculation assumes that a gas car would get 100 mpg as well, which is of course not the case. And again, of course the battery is included in the price of the car, so that calculation is only theoretical in the first place.


Or the way I would calculate it: Electric cars get about 3 miles per kWh (roughly, if not more). I don't think your accusation of "emotional crystal ball predications" is beside the point, I'm simply referring to quite common observations about battery cost development, both about the last 10 years and from people who are insiders about current developments, as well as from recently published studies which confirm this more or less. By reading into various cost reports and estimates, I don’t think that everyone’s Li-Ion (cell) costs are that different from each other, probably in the $450-500 range (as stated by ex-EV1 driver).
I'm swamped now and can't really join in you and Norbert's fight but you can be sure I'll start looking at this approach.
There are a lot of aspects to this matter reviewed by this article and the comments, but the key is that you first must ensure an apples to apples comparison. If you plan to charge in public, you'll want to sign up for charging network membership (or two).
How do you ensure that electric car owners will be happy with every visit to your charging spot?
Make sure that as you remove the terminals you keep them away from the connections so you don’t accidentally shock yourself. I enjoy every minute of creating this website and can't wait to start developing the "big picture" of what I have envisioned for this site.
The initial latch that is released from inside the car, or the latch for final release under the hood? When you replace the battery you will loose some data from some of the electronics in the car. It’s not as powerful and elegant as the Tesla Model S, but its versatility, affordability and funky looks turned it into the Prius of the EV world. It should roughly go as far as the Tesla Model S 85 kWh, which achieves its range only by using a bigger battery than the Leaf.
While the tone of the report is cautionary, stating that there are no big battery breakthroughs anticipated before 2020, the UK study says that by 2030, prices are predicted to drop to $6,400 for an electric range of about 155 miles. Almost no normal consumers want a battery only car, they already have enouph problems with their cellphones and portable computers.
He simply plants himself on these threads with the idea that his fantastic claims will draw our ire. I spent this past Saturday talking with engineers from GoE3, an Arizona-based company involved in setting up a nationwide network of Level 3 chargers, and scientists at Biosphere 2, where some fascinating research is going on in regards to related photovotaic research. While we don't have something approaching a Moore's law in regards to batteries just yet, it's obvious that what we have available today is better than what was here a decade ago. However the fact that they use the common 18650 format means that the mass production facilities for producing 18650 cells can be used, reducing cost. Compared to gas car with 25 mpg (which is about the current average) it would correspond to $2 per gallon, except that the price is included in the purchase price of the electric car (don't count it twice). There are many technologies in development with the potential to reduce cost a lot, and only one of them needs to succeed. 25 mpg is about the current average, your calculation does not factor in the inefficiency of gasoline engines.


That you even mention "ultracapacitor modules" in this context shows that you haven't done your homework yet.
You will make your case better if you A) refrain from insulting the others here and B) break up your text a bit. At today's replacement cost that is 6 cents a mile to use the battery Assuming a 8% percent reduction in cost per year for batteries in 10 years that cost per mille falls under 3 cents per mile. The three most important influences were the economy of scale, a decrease in the cost of components and improved battery capacity. I'd like to pre order my Cadillac Escalade Electric, with 600 mile range and 200 KWH battery. It doesn't matter how much the initial cost is, but if the repairs kill you down the stretch, it's not worth it. The automaker refused to provide further details about the type of battery they’re working on. Only the volt make sense in my view but the price is steep and overall you don't save money.
With the economies of scale ramping up the production output of existing technology, the batteries we know about today are bound to get cheaper in a few years. Most of them involve increasing energy density as well, so that less material per kWh is needed. Using todays cost right now with electricity the volt in electric mode cost about a dime a mile.
And another would be the computer on car, sometime the log data will be lost when replacing a battery. In any event, one of the things that these folks were particularly excited about was research concerning lithium air batteries, which, as this article details, is something we could see benefits from within the next 10 years . With the true brain power being expended on making today's batteries even better, it's inevitable that the state of the art will keep advancing.
Maintenance is nil except for tires and brakes (and with regen the brakes last a VERY long time) I'll go out on a limb here and predict that depreciation will be less for electrics. This is ok, but if you plan on doing a smog check you will need to drive for 30min to 1hr in order for the computer to have enough data to allow you to pass.
Let him simply walk off the figurative building ledge as he attempts to extract the foot from his mouth and we'll worry about cleaning up the mess later. Right now today an electric costs less to operate than an ICE vehicle and it will only get better over time as battery technology improves.



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