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27.11.2015
The missing link of mass solar adoption – cost-competitive energy storage – will be ready to be deployed on a large-scale within the next five years, according to a new report from Deutsche Bank.
But with many costs already lower than published literature would suggest, Deutsche Bank believes this ultimate solar and renewable energy goal might not be far out of reach.
Deutsche points to the commercial-scale solar market as one of the first areas where battery deployment will flourish, due to clear economic rationale. The report also points to utilities as a major market for batteries on a large scale, as costs drop and distributed renewable energy generation deployments increase.
On the residential level, the report said households were still unlikely to go down the energy storage path in the short term, without proper pricing mechanisms in place, or access to solar plus storage energy packages. Properly incentivised, the report says, utilities could begin to aggregate neighborhoods of solar + batteries to behave as a single source of load reduction.
About Latest Posts Giles ParkinsonGiles Parkinson regularly contributes unique content to Solar Choice News. According to the review, the quality of Mirai is on the Lexus level, as well as the price of $57,500 (before up to $13,000 incentives).
For those who find it less than beautiful, it does look better in person, though some angles have made people scratch their heads.
We spoke with a couple Toyota representatives who personally divulged they do not think it’s that attractive, adding the design was finalized in Japan. Despite the fact that the Japanese manufacturer intends to deliver just 3,000 units of Mirai by the end of 2017, there are apparently two new fuel cell models in development. Japan in its present state of extremely scarce electricity (54 nuclear power stations suddenly off line) is probably the only place Hydrogen cars are truly feasible. Factories already operate at off shifts to minimize peak loading of their remaining power plants. So while Hydrogen powered cars for the US may be silly, in places such as electricity – starved Japan they might make sense, as long as the hydrogen comes from some other source than electricity.
And most importantly hydrogen fuel cell cars will never be produced in any significant quantities.
This is of course different with electric cars that are already serious competitors for ICE cars.
Supercharger network will eventually get denser when the electric car population expands and there is needed more superchargers to serve larger electric car population. Don’t forget that Toyota themselves have stated that they will have 3000 on the road in the US by the end of 2017. My guess is it will be the size and weight of the lexus ESh but cost $6000 more even after rebates. 1) If you see the video from LA motor show, Toyota spokeswoman claimed $50 fill up for 300 miles. 3) It’s no biggy for Toyota to spend couple of million dollars, to put up 2-3 refueling stations along I-40 to enable driving to Las Vegas and Grand Canyon. So a Lexus CT200h gets 42 mpg with an MSRP that is $15,000 less than the Murai even with Toyota subsidizing half of the cost and including the savings from the maximum federal and state tax incentives.
Murai fuel cost is 2.7 times more than much cheaper, roomier, easier to find fuel for and better performing CT200h.
Please don’t confuse See Through with facts, he has enough trouble getting dressed each day. If Tesla had the extra cash lying around like Toyota to sell the S85 for $50,000 less than what is profitable then it would be an even better deal at around $30K.
I have always wanted a $57,500 Toyota Corolla S without a center rear seat that requires special fueling stations. Sis it just me or does it look like they stole a front grille off a Lexus or something from The Fast and Furious then stuck it on an old Ford Probe? Yes, ugly should be the result of function, but welcome to the world where kids who grew up idolizing Transformers have become auto designers and customers of same. What it does have going for it is the full weight of the on and off largest automobile manufacturer in the world.
Even if there was dense and affordable to use government sponsored network of hydrogen fueling stations, people still would not buy fuel cell cars, because fuel cell cars just sucks.
And of course long range electric cars can outsell sell ICE cars, so there is very little market potential for fuel cell cars. John Bozella of Global Automakers gave a presentation where he went over in detail how much more attractive hydrogen is compared to BEV with regards to CARB compliance.
The vacuum cleaner dude apparently was not so knowlegeable about vacuum cleaners let alone Nuclear (he might have heard someone talk about it once) that its not a big surprise that Nuke powered vacs didn’t make it.
Rutherford’s quote, although assumed silly by the blogger, my actually be proven to be quite truthful in the years to come. But we can ignore the experts predictions by looking at the reality right now that we can observe with our own senses. I would say that with the exception of say 1% of the population whose profession requires daily long distance travel like maybe a traveling salesman an affordable 200 mile EV which is coming with the next crop of EVs in just 2-4 years will pretty much cover almost all daily driving scenarios for 99% of drivers. Why complicate things by adding a more expensive and complicated fuel distribution network that is less efficient than sending electricity over existing infrastructure?
When it comes to the future of energy production, whatever combination of renewable and hopefully someday fusion, it will always be cheaper to use that energy directly in a BEV than a complicated energy transfer to molecular hydrogen and back again. And before you make the common claim that hydrogen can store surplus energy and batteries can’t that has not been proven yet but is always just assumed. Calculate the gigawatts of electricity to produce winter electricity for a given cold regions, let’s try Buffalo, for instance. I think what Toyota is doing with the Mirani is similar to what Nissan did with the Nissan Cube. The Fossil Fools industry is obviously paying many shills to spread the hydrogen green washing myth far and wide including right here on Autoblog Green. When the producers of Hydrogen say they haven’t figured out a way to price Hydrogen, that is nonsense. By John Polkinghorne, on August 7th, 2014It’s been a while since the last post in this series on electric vehicles (here are parts one, two and three), but this post is number four. This post is about the cost of electric vehicles – the main reason they’ve been so slow to take off. As discussed in part two, electric motors use a lot less energy than a traditional car engine.
This gives a cost of $5 per 100 km – certainly much cheaper than a typical petrol car, which uses 10 litres of petrol to travel 100 km, costing around $22.00 at current petrol prices. However, a big chunk of the petrol price is tax, comprising a contribution to the National Land Transport Fund, and a bit to ACC as well. As I’ve written previously, the long-term solution may be to make Road User Charges universal, although there are issues with this as well.
Diesel-electric hybrids, on the other hand, have to pay Road User Charges, so they end up paying the full whammy of costs (once the RUC-petrol tax discrepancy gets resolved in the next few years).
The graph below compares the lifetime running costs of several kinds of car, under several taxation scenarios. Setting aside environmental concerns, “range anxiety”, and all the rest, consumers will be prepared to pay the higher capital cost of electric cars, if they’re going to save enough money on their running costs. Overall, if you compare these running cost savings to the extra capital cost, it looks like the financial argument for BEVs and PHEVs isn’t quite there yet.
There are ways of reducing this issue: for example, customers could lease electric vehicles, or buy the vehicles but only lease the batteries. At current price levels, BEVs have running costs that are only marginally lower than petrol-electric PHEVs, because these hybrids are only taxed on their petrol consumption.
Since the costs associated with the road network are primarily dependent on the weight and number of vehicles using the road – and not on the litres of fuel used – the Road User Charges scheme arguably provides a more equitable way of charging for road use. Wouldn’t the annual opex for cars increase as they age due to the need for ongoing repairs etc, rather than decrease as the graph suggests?
There’s an argument that EVs might depreciate slower than conventional cars, excluding the battery (which you replace anyway), since there are fewer other parts of the car that are getting run down. You do realize that even for a mildly color blind person your graphs look all the same color? As if it needs replacing even once in its lifetime, it totally changes to economics of BEVs versus the others (making it even more uneconomic). Right now BEVs don’t stack up financially because they are too simply expensive due to the costs of the batteries and thta assumes that the battery never needs replacing. Of course, if for instance we had wireless energy transmission in the roadway so that for example BEVs could have small batteries that are semi-continuously charged from from the grid as they drive on the roads, that would change the economics in their favour a lot. Then of course, there are also similar technology for trams and trains (A Battery EMU for instance), which means the EMU can use the normal overhead power where its available and its local supply where its not. Presumably this will all be made irrelevant by the introduction of driverless cars, which will ultimately remove the whole concept of owning a car, and therefore change the economic model. So if the cost of batteries decreases enough and the tax payer gives a generous donation these cars still dont make sense. Let me fix that for you; as the cost of batteries goes down, which they will as the supply chain ramps up, and the cost of petrol goes up, which it will, as supply and demand are clearly on a knife edge despite the Shale boomlet, then these things will become more viable.


There will only be real choice when it becomes viable to be able to choose not to have to drive, at least not all the time and for all journeys. Interestingly China is reducing pollution and reliance on fossil fuels by mandating that 30% of all State Vehicles be alternative fuels by 2016. I’d love to hear what the actual lifetime of batteries has been in NZ for hybrids like Toyota Prius and Honda Insight. Those have been around long enough to see whether the initial 8 year estimates (that I had heard at their introduction) was pessimistic or optimistic. I think those batteries have generally performed OK, and just as importantly they’ve been fairly cheap to replace when it does come time for that. In this blog I want to offer the information about the Electric Vehicle and also my Academic activities and I would like to recive information from you in order to complete it. In addition to an increase in energy density, this new technology will mean a dramatic drop in costs has been estimated that Sujeet Kumar could be up to 133 euros per kWh by 2014, even less than the predictions of Elon Musk, Tesla's chairman, a few weeks ago predicted a decline in the medium term costs below EUR 150 per kWh. With this new design, a battery as the Nissan Leaf, 300 pounds, could accommodate about 60 kWh of capacity, and shoot their autonomy from the current 175 kilometers to over 430 km with each load, a figure even more bulky than predicted by the deputy director of Renault, Carlos Tavares, who commented that the second generation of Renault ZOE, could reach 300 miles on each charge for the year 2014. But other than a high capacity batteries, the battery would allow advancement of lower weight, and will require fewer kilos to store the same energy, which in practice will electric cars much cheaper, and therefore accessible to a wider range of buyers. When Tesla first announced the Gigafactory, it clearly stated in its plans that it expected that battery pack cost per kilowatt hour would be greater than 30% by Model 3 volume ramp in 2017.
Panasonic (arguably more knowledgeable and experienced regarding lithium-ion production than any company in the world) admitted that a 30% reduction by 2017 was, indeed, a conservative prediction. Keep up to date with all the hottest cleantech news by subscribing to our (free) cleantech newsletter, or keep an eye on sector-specific news by getting our (also free) solar energy newsletter, electric vehicle newsletter, or wind energy newsletter.
James Ayre 's background is predominantly in geopolitics and history, but he has an obsessive interest in pretty much everything. That article makes huge assumptions, and then makes huge assumptions off of their huge assumptions. I think by the early 2020’s, two years of gas will cost much less than $5000 due to more efficient cars. ICEs are cheap for low power motors (less than 150hp), but I think electric motors and controllers can match them in price once volume gets high. At this point of the evolution of technology we should not even think that electric Ford Fiesta is what we want.
There must be well over 120M GM vehicles on the road worldwide, and their owners are probably collectively paying $15B per month in fuel on average, with none of it going to GM.
I think the simple battery lease models require too much math for common consumers to figure out.
With a Tesla recently clearing 100,000 miles with only 5% battery degradation, it’s fairly clear that EVs can easily last 200k miles. That’s my theory about how long range EVs will get cheaper than ICEs of similar performance.
But what about this sort of EV cost targeted by Foxconn in China – less than $15,000.
They might be building a small, top speed limited car like the ones used in the Kandi Machine. And by 2017 with Gigafactory we could target Audi A4 Quattro and further expand the markets. I think EVs need to be cheap enough for the price premium to be covered by the fuel and maintenance cost savings during payoff. One of the major benefits is shifting emissions from tailpipes to power plants (assuming heavy use of coal power, like in China). Most of China’s urban air pollution comes from vehicles and coal-fired boilers, not power plants. I think that’s primarily an awareness thing, which comes somewhat slowly and then bursts.
Historical Prices & Specific Energy Trends for Li-Ion Batteries (Duke University, 2009)Enlarge PhotoDid your parents ever tell you, "Slow and steady wins the race"? It can be annoying to hear as a child, but often it's true--and in the case of electric car batteries, it's how they'll get less expensive. As a new posting from the Washington Post's Wonkblog points out, there is no Moore's Law for batteries.
That's the law underlying the rapid improvement of consumer electronics like mobile phones and computers, which says the number of transistors in a microelectronic device roughly doubles every 18 months. Run that rate over many years, and you get order-of-magnitude improvements in performance or better from decade to decade.
We haven't seen quite such pessimism in our interviews with battery experts, both from cell fabrication companies and automakers. Instead, there's a broad consensus that electric-car batteries of any given chemistry will make slow, incremental improvements in performance from minor improvements to their chemistry and better manufacturing techniques.
We wrote last year that the rate of improvement in large-format lithium-ion cells, the kind used in electric cars, is likely to mirror that of small format cells since 1989: 6 to 8 percent a year.
And there's still huge room for improvement in existing battery costs simply due to economies of scale as the number of plug-in electric cars built rises. With the exception of the highest-volume vehicles--currently the Nissan Leaf, at 50,000 after two years and counting--and the Chevrolet Volt, most plug-ins don't use large enough numbers of cells to justify truly efficient high-volume manufacturing. But take that total to 1 million vehicles or so in a few years, and there will be enough volume for the largest cell makers to operate at a more efficient level. Automakers will likely use some of the improvement to fit larger battery packs for longer range, trading off cost reduction and range increases. So with battery prices falling--slowly but steadily--and conventional cars getting more expensive, there's likely to come a tipping point for electric-car adoption. In a high grid-penetration scenario, this could reasonably lower the necessary capacity from conventional generation sources. Some may like it, others don’t but it may not matter, because this car is about what it is, not what it isn’t.
Therefore hydrogen fuel cell cars will never create any measurable competion to oil based economy. Tesla is already eating Lexus sales in significant quantities and Lexus provides about 50 % of total profits that Toyota as a company is generating. But in order for supercharging network to be functional, the supercharging network is not required to be dense with low density car population. A $57000 car that has less cargo and passenger space than a Prius, accelerates like a Prius and gets about the same MPGe but without the fueling infrastructure that a Prius has.
The CT200h has more room than the Murai, 5 seats, looks better, costs $15k less even after $13k in incentives, costs less to fuel, and has no infrastructure problem. Of course this is the start of a host difficulties the vehicle must overcome to one day make money. Toyota looked for the best path to maximum profits within CARBS guidelines and decided that it can make all the ZEVs it needs to comply with far fewer H cars.
Electricity generated from hydroelectric dams and wind turbines is much cheaper than electricity generated from fosil fuels, and PV solar panels compete head to head with fosil fuels. Based on these absurd and deliberately misleading statements, the misguided public … has been persuaded to purchase stock in his company …” — a U.S. Craven, FCC Commissioner, in 1961 (the first commercial communications satellite went into service in 1965). Anyone who expects a source of power from the transformation of these atoms is talking moonshine.” — Ernest Rutherford, shortly after splitting the atom for the first time. We have plenty of messenger boys.” — Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office, 1878. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” — Darryl Zanuck, movie producer, 20th Century Fox, 1946. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular?” — Associates of David Sarnoff responding to the latter’s call for investment in the radio in 1921.
There is a huge initial cost for batteries but it is always forgotten that there is a huge initial upfront cost for a fuel cell stack large enough to do the equivalent job.
Nissan was promoting the cube as the first electric car they were going to bring to market, then at the last minute they came out with the Nissan Leaf.
Today, I’m looking at the costs of these cars – both their running costs, and their capital costs.
These cars are much more expensive than conventional cars, unless there are hefty subsidies involved.
The latest generation of vehicles use lithium-ion batteries, which are much better at storing energy than the traditional lead-acid batteries you’ll find in your Corolla.
Let’s say that the car manufacturers are happy with a battery selling price of USD $500 per kWh, around $570 in NZ dollars.
According to the MBIE, that’s around 77 cents per litre once GST is added on, or $7.70 per 100 km.
That’s a real disincentive from buying diesel-electric PHEVs, so we’d expect them to be much less popular here. In the graph here, for a car travelling 12,000 km a year for 25 years (perhaps a bit on the high side), and using an 8% discount rate, you’ll pay nearly $30,000 in running costs for a petrol car, compared with $7,000 for a BEV which is exempt from Road User Charges forever.


This kind of scheme could allow the buyer to avoid the high up-front cost, which could be recouped over time through the running cost savings. Furthermore, even though diesel-electric PHEVs will be more efficient than petrol-electric PHEVs, they are likely to have higher running costs. Pukekohe services – avoiding the need for electrification of that line anytime soon). Maybe Ford are on to something bringing back the XR8 next year, a 5.0 litre supercharged V8.
The research I’ve done into EVs is what has led me to conclude that we (and countries around the world) need to put a heck of a lot more effort into public and active transport to reduce transport GHG emissions. Make things in large enough quantities and the prices come down as well – large lithium ion batteries are no exception.
While Hybrids exercise batteries differently to electric only vehicles, they must be an indicator. And Panasonic is putting its money where its mouth is, with its deal to partner with Tesla. All signs are still pointing toward the Gigafactory being every bit the game-changer that it’s been predicted to be. After an early life spent in the Imperial Free City of Dortmund, James followed the river Ruhr to Cofbuokheim, where he attended the University of Astnide. A 200 mile range tesla, should need a 50 kwh battery (remember they are smaller and lighter than the tesla S) 50×100= $5000. For high power engines, electric motors already have an advantage, and it’ll soon get bigger.
What we need is a simple concept like an eGallon, which you purchase for $3 and it drives you 40 miles guaranteed, including free electricity if you charge at night. The Model 3 is probably going to achieve price parity with the 3-series, C-class, etc so he won’t need it for a while. I understand that the C-Max has only 20 miles of electric range, but that’s still enough to make the regular hybrid pointless, IMO. There are a large number of cities in China that are smogged in so severely that you’d have to wear a breathing mask all the time to be safe.
Environmental Protection Agency, in turn, estimates that a new gasoline-powered car in 2025 will cost $3,000 more in real dollars than it did in 2012, due to the cost of new technologies to meet strict corporate average fuel economy rules. He is a journalist of 30 years experience, a former Business Editor and Deputy Editor of the Financial Review, a columnist for The Bulletin magazine and The Australian, and the founding editor of Climate Spectator. Therefore Tesla alone will hurth a lot Toyota’s profitability by 2020, because Lexus sales could be halved and this kills gross margins of Lexus sales. It is sufficient that Tesla owners can drive for free anywhere in California – and United States, Mexico and Canada! This of course is totally unlike with Hydrogen filling stations, where fuel cell car owners need to visit very often, because the range is so low. The Cadillac ELR proved, as expected, that nobody wants to buy $40k+ cars with low performance, let alone $60k+. If it doesn’t handle particularly well, lacks off the line acceleration, requires hard to find fuel AND costs over $45k how in the world do you expect to sell many?
District Attorney, prosecuting American inventor Lee DeForest for selling stock fraudulently through the mail for his Radio Telephone Company in 1913. Leahy, Chief of Staff to the Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy during World War II, advising President Truman on the atomic bomb, 1945. It would cover 99% of my driving needs today if I could afford the more expensive longer range EV that is currently available today. Currently the life span of a fuel cell is no better or worse than newer battery storage systems.
I think Toyota is going to come out with a very competitive electric vehicle that will surprise most people.
Again, I’ll abbreviate plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to PHEVs, and battery electric vehicles to BEVs – these are the “full” electric vehicles which don’t have an engine for backup.
They’re also much more expensive, although the price is falling and will continue to do so. Adding to the uncertainty, early EVs will have been sold below cost, or at least at less-than-economic returns to the manufacturer, as they started to develop the technology. Since EVs also contribute to road wear and tear (and demand for new investment), and to accidents, they should also be paying something for this. Electricity providers would find this a straightforward extension to their business, and I believe a number of companies in New Zealand would look at running these schemes.
Therefore electric cars could have about 5 % market share or over four million electric cars sold globally. That is electric cars make sense in price category over 40 to 50 kilodollars and EV incentives should be directed as such that it does not make economic sense to buy non-electric luxury cars. This alone will open a markets that have annual markets more than one million electric cars sold.
Shifting that pollution outside of urban areas into industrial parks (coal power plants) would be a major benefit of EVs. Sucks to be a powerful person, but still all but helpless in the face of terrible pollution. Over the life of the 2 systems the battery system will be more efficient in storing and re-releasing that energy wasting less for the same amount of storage capacity.
I wouldn’t even bother going into all the reasons why this car should never be on the road.
It seems to be generally agreed that battery costs are now less than USD $500 per kWh, although manufacturers would obviously want to make a profit on those costs at some point, and there are taxes and other considerations as well.
Therefore, an 8 kWh PHEV battery could cost $5,200, and a 33 kWh BEV battery might be around $21,450 – still not cheap by any measure. From my earlier posts, a vehicle running on electricity could use around 20 kWh to travel 100 km.
We obviously can’t tax them through petrol, and it’d be pretty hard to do it through electricity prices as well, so the logical way to do it is through Road User Charges. This would more than double the running costs of BEVs, although they’ll still be cheaper than petrol cars.
In my thesis, I assumed they average 3 litres of petrol per 100 km, although this will vary substantially.
Someone might invent a transformational new battery chemistry (rather than lithium-ion), or we might simply see incremental advances.
He currently writes for a living, on a broad variety of subjects, ranging from science, to politics, to military history, to renewable energy.
Hmmm, so you get the battery free after two years, plus electric cost which would be about $1000. It is unlikely that will sell as many Edsels as Ford sold in 3 years, though that a completely fair comparison.
By the end of 2014, more than 700,000 total plug-in vehicles had been sold worldwide (plug-in hybrids and pure battery electrics), up from about 400,000 at the end of 2013. Things get a little less straightforward when you consider that the PHEV will cost a little more due to having both an electric motor and an engine, and the BEV will cost a bit less since its electric motor is quite a bit cheaper than the typical engine.
Indeed, EVs would normally be subject to these, but they’ve received an exemption for the time being (to encourage their uptake).
Drivers who only do short trips could end up using the electric motor for nearly all their driving. As of 2015, dozens of models of electric cars and vans are available for purchase, mostly in Europe, the United States, Japan, and China.A major reason for the rapid jump in EV sales is the rapid drop in the cost of their key component -a€“ batteries. Perhaps that’s a sensible move, but it’s probably not something we’d still want to do in 20 years time when a growing number of cars are electric, and drivers of old cars will need to pick up the slack and pay more tax. The “marginal” cost you’ll pay for an extra unit of electricity, though, will be a bit lower. The more kWh stored, the further the car can go on one charge, so a key metric for battery economics is the cost per kWh. The battery study from last month found that prices would need to drop under $250 per kWh for EVs to become competitive. Further, it concluded:a€?If costs reach as low as $150 per kilowatt hour this means that electric vehicles will probably move beyond niche applications and begin to penetrate the market more widely, leading to a potential paradigm shift in vehicle technology.a€?Can electric car batteries hit that price point? The study projects that costs will fall to some $230 per kilowatt hour in the 2017 to 2018 timeframe.
Tesla Motors and Panasonic have started building a massive $5 billion plant capable of producing half a million battery packs (plus extra batteries for stationary applications) a year. This seems especially likely if China continues its explosive growth in EV sales:The post Electric Car Batteries Fall To Key Price Five Years Ahead Of Projections appeared first on ThinkProgress.



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