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By John Polkinghorne, on August 7th, 2014It’s been a while since the last post in this series on electric vehicles (here are parts one, two and three), but this post is number four.
This post is about the cost of electric vehicles – the main reason they’ve been so slow to take off.
As discussed in part two, electric motors use a lot less energy than a traditional car engine.
This gives a cost of $5 per 100 km – certainly much cheaper than a typical petrol car, which uses 10 litres of petrol to travel 100 km, costing around $22.00 at current petrol prices.
However, a big chunk of the petrol price is tax, comprising a contribution to the National Land Transport Fund, and a bit to ACC as well. As I’ve written previously, the long-term solution may be to make Road User Charges universal, although there are issues with this as well. Diesel-electric hybrids, on the other hand, have to pay Road User Charges, so they end up paying the full whammy of costs (once the RUC-petrol tax discrepancy gets resolved in the next few years). The graph below compares the lifetime running costs of several kinds of car, under several taxation scenarios. Setting aside environmental concerns, “range anxiety”, and all the rest, consumers will be prepared to pay the higher capital cost of electric cars, if they’re going to save enough money on their running costs. Overall, if you compare these running cost savings to the extra capital cost, it looks like the financial argument for BEVs and PHEVs isn’t quite there yet. There are ways of reducing this issue: for example, customers could lease electric vehicles, or buy the vehicles but only lease the batteries. At current price levels, BEVs have running costs that are only marginally lower than petrol-electric PHEVs, because these hybrids are only taxed on their petrol consumption. Since the costs associated with the road network are primarily dependent on the weight and number of vehicles using the road – and not on the litres of fuel used – the Road User Charges scheme arguably provides a more equitable way of charging for road use. Wouldn’t the annual opex for cars increase as they age due to the need for ongoing repairs etc, rather than decrease as the graph suggests?
There’s an argument that EVs might depreciate slower than conventional cars, excluding the battery (which you replace anyway), since there are fewer other parts of the car that are getting run down. You do realize that even for a mildly color blind person your graphs look all the same color? As if it needs replacing even once in its lifetime, it totally changes to economics of BEVs versus the others (making it even more uneconomic). Right now BEVs don’t stack up financially because they are too simply expensive due to the costs of the batteries and thta assumes that the battery never needs replacing.
Of course, if for instance we had wireless energy transmission in the roadway so that for example BEVs could have small batteries that are semi-continuously charged from from the grid as they drive on the roads, that would change the economics in their favour a lot. Then of course, there are also similar technology for trams and trains (A Battery EMU for instance), which means the EMU can use the normal overhead power where its available and its local supply where its not.
Presumably this will all be made irrelevant by the introduction of driverless cars, which will ultimately remove the whole concept of owning a car, and therefore change the economic model.
So if the cost of batteries decreases enough and the tax payer gives a generous donation these cars still dont make sense. Let me fix that for you; as the cost of batteries goes down, which they will as the supply chain ramps up, and the cost of petrol goes up, which it will, as supply and demand are clearly on a knife edge despite the Shale boomlet, then these things will become more viable.
There will only be real choice when it becomes viable to be able to choose not to have to drive, at least not all the time and for all journeys. Interestingly China is reducing pollution and reliance on fossil fuels by mandating that 30% of all State Vehicles be alternative fuels by 2016.
I’d love to hear what the actual lifetime of batteries has been in NZ for hybrids like Toyota Prius and Honda Insight.
Those have been around long enough to see whether the initial 8 year estimates (that I had heard at their introduction) was pessimistic or optimistic. I think those batteries have generally performed OK, and just as importantly they’ve been fairly cheap to replace when it does come time for that. Its $100 per kilowatt-hour goal could be reached sooner than expected—and well ahead of the competition.
Solar veterans will recall a time not so long ago when the industry's biggest dream was a PV module with a cost of 99 cents per watt. In fact, the 99-cent figure was more a VC-funding, press-ready construct than a real economic calculation. Which is reminiscent of the equally arbitrary $100 per kilowatt-hour battery cost goal now put forth by the battery industry and the press.
Ben Kallo at equity analyst firm RW Baird believes that Tesla's current battery costs are ~$150 to ~$200 per kilowatt-hour, well below the industry average pack costs of ~$350 per kilowatt-hour (as estimated by Bloomberg New Energy Finance).
Tesla Motors has been working on building its gigafactory for some time and expects to have it operational by next year.
One firm has just published its own estimates and is so confident in them that it has bumped up its price target for the EV manufacturer. One of the main reasons some are so bullish on Tesla is the plans to build a mass market EV, the Model 3. Currently Tesla pays about $250 per kilowatt-hour, which makes up approximately 20% of the average selling price of the Model S. For example, the EV manufacturer uses an efficient nickel cobalt aluminum cathode and a silicon synthetic graphene anode with two to six times the storage capacity for lithium-ion compared to the standard graphite anode. The company may also be using a water-based anode solvent. These components already give Tesla a leg up on the competition in terms of battery costs, so by increasing production through the gigafactory, the company should be able to get even further ahead. Dolev and Young believe Tesla could cut its battery costs by as much as 50% by 2020, not only by bringing the massive gigafactory online but also by changing some of the chemistry of its battery cells. Just changing the cell chemistry could result in an additional 30% reduction in gross margins, they believe. Among the possible chemistry changes Tesla could make is using an even more efficient cathode made of lithium-rich nickel cobalt manganese. The Jefferies team sees the majority of the cost reduction in battery packs (70%) as coming from the gigafactory’s massive scale. With all of these factors going into cutting battery costs, the analysts believe Tesla will be able to reduce its pack cost from between 21% and 22% of its average selling price to between 12% and 13%. Two new research papers released in recent weeks shed light on the real potential of electric vehicles to upend traditional energy systems as we currently know them. The first report, from Edison Electric Institute, lays out an unambiguous business case for why the power sector needs vehicle electrification to take off and should take various aggressive measures to help expedite their widespread adoption.
EEI also provides an overview of vehicle battery cost projections, with the most optimistic outcomes placing battery cost per kilowatt-hour at around $200-300 in 2020. In EEI’s view, plug-in vehicles make good business sense for utility fleets in the near term, with short payback periods and lifetime operational cost savings. But there’s another way that electrification could play out—one that ultimately might be a bigger win for consumers, but would worsen the outlook for the utility industry. Investment bank UBS sees a scenario unfolding where consumers can utilize solar, batteries, and electric vehicles to effectively “opt out” of the current grid, and experience tremendous energy savings. According to their model, homeowners who make an initial investment in solar panels, a stationary battery, and an electric vehicle will break even within six to eight years, followed by approximately 12 years of “free” electricity and transportation fuel. Importantly, the UBS report focuses mostly on European markets, where liquid fuel costs are significantly higher due to national gasoline and diesel taxes.
The Energy Policy Information Center (EPIC) provides reliable, topical news and analysis for policymakers, opinion leaders, stakeholders, and all individuals involved in our nation's energy policy debate. The views expressed here are those of individual contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of Securing America's Future Energy. A recent study suggests that the price for a "complete automotive lithium-ion battery pack" will dramatically fall prior to the end of the decade. According to a recent McKinsey study, the price of automotive-grade lithium-ion batteries is on a path of steady decline.
I've been tracking lithium ion prices for some time, and it appears that some kind of consensus is forming. The study suggests that the vast majority of the cost reductions will come from improvements in manufacturing processes, standardization of equipment and high production volumes. Of course, your point is that we really don't know what will happen to lithium prices and there is some risk that it could become the "oil" of the future. 1.- Lithium is recyclable - it degrades over time, but doesn't really go away like burning something does.
2.- Electric cars will take a VERY long time to "fuel" personal transportation like gasoline has, if at all. 3.- There are other battery technologies that could replace lithium if the price is too high for lack of supply. I'm not too confident of the last one (we always hear of wonderful technologies coming along 5-10 years from now [like 20 years ago we've heard these stories] without fruition), but even if we have to go back to NiMH batteries that are heavier and less energy dense, there is precendent (the Toyota Rav4EV that has proven it can get 100,000 miles on a pack) that other options are possible. And if you think China would hold it's batteries for its own consumption (like they tried doing with rare earths a year or two ago), I think they can't afford it. A very LARGE percentage of the lithium WILL be saved by recycling - just like the very large percentage of lead that has been saved for decades by recycling lead-acid car batteries.
If you plan to charge in public, you'll want to sign up for charging network membership (or two). How do you ensure that electric car owners will be happy with every visit to your charging spot?
Likewise, the price cost of a 40-mile range battery is projected to be falling from more than $13,000 in 2009, to $6,700 in 2013 and $4,000 in 2015.
The report also notes significant new expansions in the actual capital investments in plants and equipment. Summary: The cost of battery packs for electric vehicles has fallen more rapidly than projected, with market leading firms in 2014 producing batteries at ~$300 per kilowatt-hour of storage capacity, on par with market projections for 2020.
Electric vehicle (EV) battery costs have fallen more rapidly than many projections, according to a new survey of battery costs published in Nature Climate Change.
The cost of batteries produced by market leading firms, such as Renault-Nissan and Tesla Motors, however, have fallen further, to an average of $300 per kWh, according to the study. In the near-term, the researchers believe economies of scale, improvements in cell manufacturing and learning-by-doing in pack integration, rather than advancements in cell chemistry or other R&D breakthroughs, will help manufacturers continue to produce cheaper batteries. EV battery sales volumes are current doubling annually and car manufacturers are partnering with battery makers to invest in larger production facilities and cut costs. The study’s authors conclude that economies of scale are likely to drive down battery costs to $200 per kWh in the near future. Bjorn Nykvist is a Research Fellow and Mans Nilsson is Deputy Director and Research Director at the Stockholm Environment Institute. Note: This is article is part of an ongoing series of concise summaries of interesting and important conclusions from new research and peer-reviewed journal articles. Will economies of scale and learning by doing be enough to make batteries cost competitive?
What impact does growing demand for stationary batteries for grid connected uses have on costs and prices in the electric vehicle battery sector? Are Carbon Capture and Storage and Biomass Indispensable in the Fight Against Climate Change? Jesse JenkinsJesse is a researcher, consultant, and writer with ten years of experience in the energy sector and expertise in electric power systems, electricity regulation, energy and climate change policy, and innovation policy.
Suppose, instead, that in a typical month you can expect enough solar energy collected to cover your monthly demand, but there might be a week of cloudy skies. Scott Edward Anderson is a consultant, blogger, and media commentator who blogs at The Green Skeptic. Christine Hertzog is a consultant, author, and a professional explainer focused on Smart Grid. Gary Hunt Gary is an Executive-in-Residence at Deloitte Investments with extensive experience in the energy & utility industries. Jesse Jenkins is a graduate student and researcher at MIT with expertise in energy technology, policy, and innovation. Geoffrey Styles is Managing Director of GSW Strategy Group, LLC and an award-winning blogger.
This article was co-authored by Arun Vishwanath (research scientist) and Shivkumar Kalyanaraman (chief scientist) at IBM Research - Australia. Iven Mareels receives funding from The Australian Research Council, under the Linkage Grant Scheme, in support of research on the integration of electric vehicles into the grid. Julian de Hoog receives funding from the ARC, Better Place Australia, and Senergy E-Connect as part of a linkage grant. Battery costs can make up a quarter of the cost of an electric car such as this Tesla Model S. First introduced by Sony in 1990, lithium-ion batteries are already the dominant type of battery for technologies such as mobile phones, laptops and electric cars, and are expected to remain so for some time. As a result, battery costs are a key factor in whether or not, and when, certain technologies find widespread adoption.
Neither battery cell manufacturers nor corporate buyers of batteries tend to disclose the specific content of the deals they strike.
To shed some light on battery cost trends, as part of a joint project between the University of Melbourne and IBM Research - Australia, we have conducted a meta-analysis of current battery costs and future cost predictions.
The analysed studies (links at end) focus specifically on battery packs for automotive markets. The results indicate that battery pack costs per kilowatt-hour have been decreasing rapidly, from an average cost of around US$800 in 2009 to around US$600 this year. However, there are significant differences in the estimates, particularly regarding current costs and those until 2020.
To put the numbers into perspective, one kilowatt-hour of storage offers sufficient energy to travel approximately 6km in an electric car, or 120km on an electric bicycle.
In addition to the initial cost, it is important to consider that despite presently high electricity prices in Australia, the cost of fully charging a 200km-electric car is only around AU$8. Beyond transportation there are many other fields that are directly impacted by reducing battery cost. Rooftop solar storage, for example, can benefit greatly by being able to store surplus energy generated during the day for use later in the evening. For example, a typical Victorian customer with rooftop panels will earn around 8? for feeding one kilowatt-hour into the grid during the day, but pay 33? to buy back the same amount in the evening. As lithium-ion battery costs continue to decrease, the opportunities to reduce on-going transportation and electricity costs become ever more positive. Solar photovoltaics, along with wind energy, now represent the bulk of new Australian energy.
Homeowners, who may soon store energy from solar cells instead of selling back to the grid, should select storage components wisely.The renewable energy storage market is on a tear, driven by lower-cost batteries, incentivized solar installations, a desire for energy independence, and the need for smart-grid stability and lower overall utility costs. While current solar energy tax incentives start to dissipate in 2016, a bid to extend those incentives to 2020 has just passed Congress and has reignited the solar industry, with a knock-on effect for battery-based energy storage systems. This surge around energy storage systems (ESS) in general, and renewable energy storage (RES) in particular, has created enormous opportunities for designers of power conversion architectures and inverters, especially for home applications. Regionally, Hawaii took the lead in residential ESS deployments, surpassing California for the first time, which came in third. Solar energy flaresThat Hawaii would outshine California in energy storage deployments comes as no surprise to Brett S.

The connection of ESSs to photovoltaic deployment cannot be ignored, particularly with regard to residential applications, where solar deployments are increasing at a phenomenal rate (Figure 2). Technologically, the efficiency of solar cells continues to increase and module costs continue to fall, to the point that it has increasingly become a viable option in many developed regions as well as an alternative to diesel in regions such as Africa. That said, solar’s cost parity with conventional power sources remains a discussion shrouded in controversy, nuances, biases and misinformation, much of it due to subsidization of both solar cell manufacturing and deployments.
As mentioned above, federal investment tax credits (ITCs) have encouraged and subsidized many residential deployments of solar power.
But not so fast: The effect of those ITCs expiring would ripple across the entire renewable energy and storage industry. The deal would call for a five-year renewal of the ITC in exchange for lifting the ban on U.S.
In response to the rule change, IHS Research, which initially had projected solar deployment in the U.S. While 40 GW had been deployed globally in 2014, the report predicted that 540 GW could be deployed by 2019.
Those advanced storage options include ultracapacitors (not a battery chemistry, but counted as an advanced storage mechanism for the purposes of the report) as well as battery chemistries such as lithium sulfur (LiS), magnesium ion (Mg-ion), solid electrolyte, next-generation flow and metal-air. Energy storage rising with renewablesAdding some form of energy storage to a renewable energy source, particularly solar, is one of the main drivers of ESS deployment, according to Tee Chun Keong, a product marketing manager at Avago Technologies, Inc. Traditionally, adding a solar panel came with the assumption that any excess power generated by the solar cells and not used by the homeowner would be sold back to the utility.
That batteries themselves are coming down in cost is also a big factor in the adoption of battery ESS (BESS) (Figure 4.) From 2010 to 2014, battery cost per kilowatt hour (KWh) dropped from $1,400 to $500, according to GTM Research. If falling costs, ease of use, and more aesthetically pleasing designs weren’t enough incentive, David Hague, senior director of marketing and technology partnerships at Gehrlicher Solar, made his own list of 22 reasons for energy storage, mostly echoing the reasons given here, but with more device and market specificity.
New architectures, same dangersThis trend toward including ESS with solar deployments has had an interesting effect on architecture and converter design approaches (Figure 4). All the parts had to be bought separately, battery, inverter, and metering, while multiple voltage conversions led to unnecessary losses and overall inefficiencies. Also, inverters have an IGBT or MOSFET switch in a half-bridge topology, with four to six switches inside. When converting to charge the battery, the charging voltage must also be switched at between 100 to 200 KHz, again putting the onus on the designer to pick a fast, isolated device. While both digital isolators and optocouplers can meet many of the other requirements, ensuring voltage isolation from device to user requires special attention.
There are two aspects to the device choice at this stage: ensuring user safety and also getting a design through regulatory requirements.
In the real world, this means a design can move through the regulatory environment a lot more quickly as optocouplers have been performing high-voltage isolation for over 30 years and go beyond basic requirements.
Avago’s Tee elaborates upon this in the video below, as well as some new features and functionality Avago is offering in products that are just now being announced, such as the ACPL-335J. The blogs and comments posted on EE Times do not reflect the views of EE Times, UBM Electronics, or its sponsors. Ron Neale Resistion :During preparation of the article I did raise the same question with IBM. Steve.Leibson Here in San Jose, we're down to one camera store, San Jose Camera, but they've never been the "mom and pop" sort of friendly store to which you refer.
Have you ever found yourself wishing for a time machine to project a decade or longer into the future just to see how things turned out? For starters, we could settle whether Toyota is wise in sidestepping mass-market battery electric cars for now, or whether EV advocates are correct saying it’s misguided, excessively self-serving, too risk averse, and possibly even conspiring to postpone progress. Yes, we’ve heard all these allegations and more from a well-connected EV advocate who asked to remain anonymous. Toyota’s ecological pop-star status started with its Prius launched in Japan in 1997, and the U.S.
But with the advent of lithium-ion-powered global electric cars from Tesla, Renault-Nissan and even Mitsubishi – plus limited-market or pending EVs from Chevrolet, Ford, Honda, Fiat, and BMW – some say Toyota’s hybrids are no longer the most progressive means to wean away from petroleum. The company does have its Tesla-powered RAV4 EV, but this is California-only with just 2,600 units to be built before production halts next year. Last month in Michigan, Toyota outlined its past, present and future centered on hybrids including plug-in hybrids to come, and mentioned also a plan to leapfrog battery electric to fuel cell vehicles beginning in 2015. It has never said never for commercialized EVs of the sort that Nissan is now spending billions to cultivate a market for, but expounded on why joining the push for EVs would be a waste of its resources. Toyota had flown in from Japan Managing Officer Satoshi Ogiso, formerly the Prius lead engineer who’d followed in the footsteps of Uchiyamada, and now higher up in Toyota’s alternative-tech development. Toyota’s presentation suggested hybrids will grow to near ubiquity and still be going strong as far out as 2070 and beyond. Actually automakers’ amorphous “all-of-the-above” approach will see several competing – or complementary – technologies vying for a place, but where folks are agreeing to disagree is on how much emphasis should be put today on battery powered cars. If hybridization is a “bridge,” then all-electric is the ground to which the bridge is leading. Plug-in cars are being adopted especially in regions where hybrids were more widely accepted first, and their success is considered evidence of battery electric cars’ destiny to also succeed.
First off, sales of perhaps “5,000-10,000” battery electric cars annually is not enough to “move the dial” for Toyota’s fleet to comply with regulations considering the 2 million units per year volume it does, said VP of Technology and Regulatory Affairs, Tom Stricker. And to say plug-ins are doing as well necessitates an “apples-to-coconuts” comparison because today market conditions and policies are “very different” than in the early 2000s, he said.
Stricker observed only two hybrids were marketed for the first 31 months after 2000, the Prius and Honda Insight. What’s more, billions in government dollars allocated for subsidies for consumers, loans and grants for manufacturers and infrastructure providers is adding to a virtual “tailwind” pushing EVs and PHEVs along. But, Stricker postulated, what if we look at hybrid sales from the moment the IRS allowed them a several-thousand-dollar credit around 2005 through 2010 and California offered solo occupancy for its HOV lanes? Assuming a worthwhile comparison, Stricker presented another chart showing hybrids sold from 2005-on enjoying just some of the props from which EVs and PHEVs have benefited. Coincidentally, Stricker said, exactly a dozen hybrids were being sold after January 2005, and guess what?
Stricker said he realized this was not a completely equal parallel, but felt it had a measure of validity. He noted also plug-in car proponents are basically “hanging their hat” on the assumption that battery costs per kilowatt-hour will drop and allow for longer-range, cheaper EVs. The Electrification Coalition, one of the “more optimistic” advocates of this belief, Stricker said, had estimated a few weeks prior that $275 per kwh will mean a tipping point to be achieved in the next several years. Stricker figured by then, federal plug-in subsidies will no longer be available, so factoring savings for battery costs, but an increase due to lack of incentives, he calculated EVs’ value proposition would be worse, not better. Plug In America’s Legislative Director Jay Friedland turned tables on Toyota’s spin saying this indicates Toyota is missing market signs as its once-faithful move on.
Despite expected and unexpected setbacks, he said, evidence suggests the proverbial horses have left the stable, and there’s no putting them back. The study of technological diffusion looks at past adoption curves and may also chart how fast a given technology may be accepted from the day of its introduction onwards. It involves advanced mathematical equations and data-crunching computers but the short story is technology that has made it always did so against resistance.
Trends have shown newer and less regulated technologies became mainstream faster than previous ones – assuming the technology was destined for viability and did not die in the cradle. It’s as though this more-connected society is consuming new inventions with less lag time, than, say, the telephone, that required 71 years to be in 50 percent of homes. His paper goes into great detail, but his charts project proliferation for battery electric and plug-in hybrid cars. This could be due to plug-in EVs becoming less expensive, their range multiplying, charging much faster, or a combination thereof. And if anyone is saying three years into it that battery cars are a losing investment, bear in mind we are 13 years since the U.S. Diffusion theory contemplates that first-generation EVs are going against societal expectations rooted in petroleum vehicles that have matured for 100 years.
Friedland also noted an “Innovator’s Dilemma” that could be working against Toyota’s leaders and explained in another seminal work with this same title by Harvard Business School professor Clay Christensen.
Unbeknownst to Friedland, his views echoed those from a recent article by Green Car Reports which used tenets on disruptive technology espoused by Christensen’s Innovator’s Dilemma to essentially put Toyota on the therapist’s couch. GCR writer Matthew Klippenstein succinctly analyzed Toyota’s corporate psyche questioning whether its success with hybrids is blinding and binding it to its past instead of allowing it to bravely go from strength to strength. Past examples of the phenomenon include floppy disk drives that shrunk in size until they were replaced by solid state storage, CRT televisions replaced by flat screens, VCR tapes replaced by DVDs, cassette tapes replaced by cds, and so on.
It has worked out its hybrid formula which is now quite profitable, does cost less than EV tech, doesn’t need subsidies to sell, refuels in minutes, has no range anxiety, and the market presently speaks louder than theorists. Not at all bashful of Toyota’s stance on hybrids, Carter actually issued a challenge for competitors to join it.
In any event, Toyota says such things now, but in 1997, Toyota’s leadership had no idea that its allowing the Prius to see daylight would be a turning point and make it a hero. The company fully admits there was huge internal resistance and skepticism all the way through to the second-generation Prius in 2003.
What’s more, if “business is war,” it’s been suggested today Toyota is playing a cagy strategy of sitting out expensive, uphill commercialization of mass-market EVs while it lets its competitors do the heavy lifting and preparing of a market it may come back to when it sees profitability. And truth be told, at the moment only Nissan and Tesla are making much of a dent in the battery electric market.
Ogiso also dropped hints about a massive R&D budget for things like advanced solid-state batteries, wireless recharging, and other technologies the company will want in battery electric cars wearing a Toyota or Lexus badge. Lacking a time machine, we’ll have to ask you to check back with us in 10 years or so to learn whether Toyota is being crazy, or crazy like a fox. This entry was posted on Friday, September 27th, 2013 at 5:55 am and is filed under General. The Tesla Model S, the Nissan Leaf and the Volt have shown that they can leapfrog fuel cell vehicles. Today, I’m looking at the costs of these cars – both their running costs, and their capital costs. These cars are much more expensive than conventional cars, unless there are hefty subsidies involved.
The latest generation of vehicles use lithium-ion batteries, which are much better at storing energy than the traditional lead-acid batteries you’ll find in your Corolla. Let’s say that the car manufacturers are happy with a battery selling price of USD $500 per kWh, around $570 in NZ dollars. According to the MBIE, that’s around 77 cents per litre once GST is added on, or $7.70 per 100 km.
That’s a real disincentive from buying diesel-electric PHEVs, so we’d expect them to be much less popular here. In the graph here, for a car travelling 12,000 km a year for 25 years (perhaps a bit on the high side), and using an 8% discount rate, you’ll pay nearly $30,000 in running costs for a petrol car, compared with $7,000 for a BEV which is exempt from Road User Charges forever.
This kind of scheme could allow the buyer to avoid the high up-front cost, which could be recouped over time through the running cost savings. Furthermore, even though diesel-electric PHEVs will be more efficient than petrol-electric PHEVs, they are likely to have higher running costs. Pukekohe services – avoiding the need for electrification of that line anytime soon). Maybe Ford are on to something bringing back the XR8 next year, a 5.0 litre supercharged V8. The research I’ve done into EVs is what has led me to conclude that we (and countries around the world) need to put a heck of a lot more effort into public and active transport to reduce transport GHG emissions. Make things in large enough quantities and the prices come down as well – large lithium ion batteries are no exception. While Hybrids exercise batteries differently to electric only vehicles, they must be an indicator. Obviously, the solar industry has long left that figure in the dust -- module costs of 40 cents per watt are a reality in today's market.
Kallo suggests that the Chevy Bolt's battery costs "are significantly higher" than those of Tesla. Prior to joining GTM, Eric Wesoff founded Sage Marketing Partners in 2000 to provide sales and marketing-consulting services to venture-capital firms and their portfolio companies in the alternative energy and telecommunications sectors. His strengths are in market research and analysis, business development and due diligence for investors. The automaker seeks to cut its battery costs dramatically, but exactly how much it will be able to reduce its costs by has been up for debate.
In order to cut the price on the automaker’s vehicles down to the $35,000 range, it must significantly reduce its battery costs. This would result in a combined gross margin tailwind of about 1,000 basis points, in their estimates. Switching to this type of cathode could double the percentage of silicon in the synthetic graphene anode and replace the liquid electrolyte with an ionic gel electrolyte. She produced the morning news programs for the NBC affiliates in Evansville, Indiana and Huntsville, Alabama and spent a short time at the CBS affiliate in Huntsville. EEI states, “today’s electric utilities need a new source of load growth—one that fits within the political, economic and social environment. In their view, steep declines in cost of solar panels and large batteries are going to enable new applications, and leveraging the technologies against each other makes them viable without subsidies.
The report states, “One can leverage the EV purchase with an investment in a solar system and a stationary battery. In this case, the stationary and electric vehicle batteries can store electricity from a home’s solar panels, utilize that energy at night or during periods of low sunlight, and also meet the household’s transportation fuel demand. At the same time, many parts of Europe have much lower sun exposure than the United States.
Lithium is a rare earth metal and companies are now looking towards offshore mining to find new deposits. One of the more interesting books regarding lithium batteries, Bottled Lightning by Set Fletcher, has a couple chapters devoted to the lithium supply chain.
It says 26 (of 30) battery and component manufacturing plants already have started construction, which includes breaking ground on new factories or installing new equipment in existing facilities. Researchers from the Stockholm Environment Institute scoured peer-reviewed journals, consultancy reports, and news items to construct an original data set of EV battery pack cost estimates from 2007 to 2014.
These estimates are on the order of two to four times lower than many recent peer-reviewed papers have suggested and already equal to the average cost projected for 2020 in a variety of papers. Renault-Nissan is working with LG to produce enough batteries for 1.5 million electric vehicles per year by 2016 while Tesla Motors and Panasonic are building a “Gigafactory” in Nevada that will produce 500,000 packs for EVs along with additional batteries for stationary energy storage, for a total of 50 million kWh per year of battery production. Further cell chemistry improvements may be necessary to hit the $150 per kWh target envisioned by the U.S. We use a Creative Commons Attribution NoDerivatives licence, so you can republish our articles for free, online or in print.
In cars, how to build batteries that run for hundreds of kilometres; in electricity, storing energy from solar panels for when the sun doesn’t shine. This suggests that the financial appeal of electric cars and stationary storage is set to keep increasing considerably in years ahead.

Their strength lies in being able to store a high amount of energy in a relatively small and lightweight package, as well as being capable of charging and discharging thousands of times while retaining most of their storage capacity.
For example, just the individual battery cells in the Californian Tesla Model S electric car make up 25% or more of the vehicle purchase cost.
The graph below shows the cost trends for full battery packs, which contain the battery cells themselves, battery management electronics, a cooling system, and protective housing. However, the battery packs for other large applications, such as domestic systems used to store energy from solar panels for evening use, are very similar so the results have implications far beyond the automotive domain. Furthermore, this decreasing trend is expected to continue, with battery system costs predicted to drop to around US$310 by 2020 and further to US$150 by 2030. If these correspond to differences in specific deals struck, they could well be the determining factor for economic success of the corresponding battery purchasing companies. While the battery of an electric car capable of driving 200km would have cost around US$28k in 2009 and US$22k today, the cost is expected to drop to US$11k by 2020 and around US$5k by 2030. Assuming petrol prices keep rising as they have in recent years, it seems very likely that for many people electric cars may soon offer clear economic benefits over petrol cars.
In addition to the personal satisfaction that comes from knowing that your own roof is powering your evening energy needs, there are also financial benefits. But you rarely fancy eating apples in the afternoon and you also don’t have a fridge to store it on hot days, so you sell it to your neighbour to keep it from going to waste. Both items have a big upfront cost, but once bought, mean you never again have to lose money on a daily basis by trading something that you will require only a few hours later. And the environmental benefits offered by solar generation and electric cars alike suggest that batteries, as the ticking hearts of these green technologies, may well turn users’ own hearts just a little bit greener. Even Tesla has gotten involved, announcing its Powerwall, a $3,500, 10-kWh storage system for the home, business and utilities.
Energy storage deployments topped 60 MW in Q3 of 2015, with “behind the meter” applications growing by 15x that of Q3 2014.
So much so, that in December 2015, Congress extended the ITCs beyond the original expiration date of 2016.
All this bodes well for energy storage, though lithium-ion (Li-ion) may not be the beneficiary. Navigant expects global deployments of next-generation technologies for energy storage to increase from near zero this year, to $9.4 billion by 2023.
Avago is a major supplier of components to the power conversion and isolation protection market.
Tesla (battery) and SolarEdge (StorEdge inverter) are two of the many new entrants that are bringing costs down and making energy conversion and storage easier to deploy, more efficient, and even aesthetically pleasing. During the same period, the installed commercial system cost dropped from $2,000 to $1,100. Battery cost per kilowatt-hour has fallen dramatically, with Tesla extending the drop even further, to $350. When battery storage was a rarity, the battery was charged by tapping the mains supply, via an AC-DC converter.
When battery-based storage was an afterthought, power to charge the battery was tapped off the home AC supply and was relatively inefficient due to multiple conversions (a).
A full system can be integrated, including the PV monitoring and DC-DC conversion to charge the battery, as well as the inverter. Maximum power point tracking (MPPT) must still be performed to ensure the varying PV energy is captured and transferred to the battery with minimal power losses, regardless of sun strength. To minimize switching losses, those IGBTs or MOSFETS need to be switched quickly and with precise timing. In a PV application, they must be capable of withstanding more than 400 Vdc and up to 50 A of current to charge the battery. While both digital isolators and optocouplers can handle almost all the requirements in terms of functionality, speed as well as creepage and clearance, only optocouplers are certified to IEC 607475 and voltages up to 1,400 Vdc (operating) with reinforced insulation.
This is a 2.5-A MOSFET gate drive optocoupler with integrated over current sensing, active Miller clamping, fault and UVLO status feedback, suitable for battery charging applications. EE Times, UBM Electronics, and its sponsors do not assume responsibility for any comments, claims, or opinions made by authors and bloggers.
And it’s almost ironic considering to date, Toyota has basked in a reputation as an electrification pioneer – a mantel it proudly wears and helps along as needed, now having sold 5 million Toyota and Lexus hybrids worldwide. In contradistinction, advocates say the Japanese automaker is overlooking opportunities to leverage its current lead, and may hurt itself while doing little for the ultimate cause. Gas was cheap and there were no subsidies except for a tax deduction that might net up to $600. They are being bought most heavily in regions prepped by hybrids and need less explaining to sell to those already lined up to buy.
Hybrids in 2005 benefited from the previous several years of hybrid proliferation and so are today’s plug-ins. For the period of 31 months after the 12 hybrids sold 10-times the volume of the 12 EVs and PHEVs for their first 31 months. Patrick Plotz of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (Fraunhofer ISI) suggests these propulsion technologies are substitutable for one another. By later in the decade of 2020-2030, one hypothetical model suggests hybrids will start tapering off as technology ripens for plug-in cars. Toyota now embraces them, but Friedland said it’s misreading the parallel for battery cars.
The idea behind the innovator’s dilemma is that leading technological innovators – such as Toyota – have been shown to lose their market dominance as a potentially superior but underdog replacement technology – such as battery electric cars – comes along.
According to Toyota media rep, Maurice Durand, its decisions are based on the present as it sees it, and it can shift gears later. If later technology improves – and assuming the prognosticators in Silicon Valley are wrong – Toyota will be able to pick up where it left off and this is part of Toyota’s long-term consideration, as Ogiso said. But if memory serves, much of the basic research on early automotive hybrid technology had been done long before that by highly-innovative companies like TRW (who was also heavily involved in the US space program).
Again, I’ll abbreviate plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to PHEVs, and battery electric vehicles to BEVs – these are the “full” electric vehicles which don’t have an engine for backup. They’re also much more expensive, although the price is falling and will continue to do so. Adding to the uncertainty, early EVs will have been sold below cost, or at least at less-than-economic returns to the manufacturer, as they started to develop the technology.
Since EVs also contribute to road wear and tear (and demand for new investment), and to accidents, they should also be paying something for this. Electricity providers would find this a straightforward extension to their business, and I believe a number of companies in New Zealand would look at running these schemes. The old hybrids tended to use NiMH, and all the new cars coming out are using lithium-ion instead, so the results from the old batteries aren’t really that relevant. He frequently consults for energy startups and Silicon Valley's premier venture capitalists.
In a report dated today, Jefferies analysts Dan Dolev and Trevor Young said they see a tailwind of up to 1,000 basis points for Tesla’s gross margins. In addition to economy of scale, they also see potential in optimization of the automaker’s supply chain, increases in automation and domesticating production. She has experience as a writer and public relations expert for a wide variety of businesses.
EEI writes that between 2007 and 2012, retail sales of electricity in the United States across all sectors dropped 2 percent. However, UBS does state that this shift still represents a “net opportunity” for utilities. Either way, both reports paint a picture of how electric vehicles will cause massive transition and disruption to transportation and electricity markets, and in both cases, consumers are likely to benefit. Even if the technology is refined, and IF some of the Lithium can be saved by recycling, there is a huge pothole in this logic.
Average battery pack costs have fallen 14 percent per year across the industry, which has seen sales volumes double annually in recent years. Costs for market leaders have declined at an average of 8 percent per year, the study estimates. Department of Energy (DOE) has set a target of $150 per kWh for battery electric vehicles to become broadly competitive and see widespread market adoption.
Tesla and Panasonic are targeting a further 30 percent decline in battery pack costs by 2017, which would require a 7 percent annual decline in costs, consistent with a continuation of recent rates for market leading firms. The best available sources are reports by research institutes and consultancies that directly communicated with major players in this field.
Quarter over quarter, photovoltaic deployments are going through their own heady growth pattern in the U.S. By the end of day, battered solar stock prices had rallied, with SolarCity’s stock price alone soaring by more than a third.
New architectures include PV monitoring and direct dc coupling improve efficiency (b), with options to also integrate the inverter and metering for grid-ties. Metering has advanced to ZigBee or other wireless technologies to provide either computer or app-based monitoring of the entire system.
This involves stabilizing the PV voltage, using a capacitor, for example, and then ensuring that the charging voltage is efficiently dropped to match battery chemistry. This means the designer of the system needs to make sure the driver can supply enough gate current to turn the IGBT on quickly, while also making sure it can switch fast enough between different stages so the next stage turns on as quickly as previous one turns off. Also, the voltage from the solar cell can be in excess of 400 to 600 V, or even up to 1000 Vdc. They are no substitute for your own research and should not be relied upon for trading or any other purpose. The company now has 23 Hybrid Synergy Drive vehicles across its global lines with plans for 15 more by 2015.
If Stricker said “5,000-10,000” EVs was insignificant, do you think 25,000 like Nissan may sell would make Toyota change its mind? The company founder, whose background was producing looms for the textile industry, based his decision to venture into the automobile business on the obvious success of the huge markets for vehicles made by well-established companies.
Remember you have to hav sold over 250,000 such vehicles for the tax credit to completely go away. It seems to be generally agreed that battery costs are now less than USD $500 per kWh, although manufacturers would obviously want to make a profit on those costs at some point, and there are taxes and other considerations as well. Therefore, an 8 kWh PHEV battery could cost $5,200, and a 33 kWh BEV battery might be around $21,450 – still not cheap by any measure.
From my earlier posts, a vehicle running on electricity could use around 20 kWh to travel 100 km.
We obviously can’t tax them through petrol, and it’d be pretty hard to do it through electricity prices as well, so the logical way to do it is through Road User Charges. This would more than double the running costs of BEVs, although they’ll still be cheaper than petrol cars.
In my thesis, I assumed they average 3 litres of petrol per 100 km, although this will vary substantially. Someone might invent a transformational new battery chemistry (rather than lithium-ion), or we might simply see incremental advances.
At the same time, the American Society of Civil Engineers gives our energy infrastructure a grade of D+ and stated that 3.6 trillion of investment is needed by 2020 to maintain and improve the grid.
In return it means that 75 miles EV battery would come at roughly the same price as a standard car engine of today.
To drop in price the technology has to advance and the minerals that create that technology can't be finite.
EV battery packs now cost $410 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of storage capacity on average (with a 95 percent confidence interval ranging from $250–670 per kWh). Nuclear power plant electricity sells for 5 ce (July 1, 2016 at 2:15 PM)Nathan Wilson on Market Failure and Nuclear Power Alternatives to nuclear such as solar+coal, wind+gas? The “catch” is that you sell the apple for $1 but buy one back only a few hours later for $4, i.e. Driven in part by potentially expiring investment tax credits, GTM projected that deployments in 2016 alone would reach 16 GW.
This also requires some sort of isolated communication to the battery from the PV, or to the battery and the rest of the home power loads.
In the case of Tesla, its Powerwall requires 450 V and its battery current capability is almost 10 A. Honda sold 420 Fit EVs, Ford sold 1,225 Focus EVs, even poor Mitsubishi sold only 958 i-MiEVs and the recently launched Chevy Spark EV is only offered in Oregon and California.
I think many of these adoption comparisons are invalid because transportation is something everybody needs to have.
My personal involvement with Japanese engineers in their space program convinces me they are better at perfecting technologies than pioneering them.
Manufacturing processes alone will become more efficient and thus cost would have dropped by more than just research extraction.
Things get a little less straightforward when you consider that the PHEV will cost a little more due to having both an electric motor and an engine, and the BEV will cost a bit less since its electric motor is quite a bit cheaper than the typical engine. Indeed, EVs would normally be subject to these, but they’ve received an exemption for the time being (to encourage their uptake).
Drivers who only do short trips could end up using the electric motor for nearly all their driving.
As a result of this estimate, they increased their price target from $360 to $365 and reiterated their Buy rating on the automaker.
Furthermore, the aging grid is more vulnerable than ever to weather events and cyber-attacks. On the other hand, the opportunities for utilities present themselves in terms of smart grids and decentralized backup power generation. If you take into account the elimination of costs associated with clutch, gearbox, starter and the likes that are typical for a classic car, you can consider that the addition of a motor, controller and range extender costs would be roughly compensated. Also, there is word from China that they plan to limit the amount of total export of their Lithium-ion constructed batteries and will hold them for private consumption.
This book also describe the rise and ultimate debunking of a "Peak Lithium" urban legend advanced by William Tahil about 6 years ago. Unlike cellphones, PCs and Flat TVs which can be done without, though my daughters might dissagree.
Perhaps that’s a sensible move, but it’s probably not something we’d still want to do in 20 years time when a growing number of cars are electric, and drivers of old cars will need to pick up the slack and pay more tax. Despite UBS’ optimism, it seems hard to see how these gains would offset the massive demand reduction. Thus, this means a true equivalence in production cost between a range extender EV with 75 EV miles and a present day standard car, which is exactly what is required for mass production. The “marginal” cost you’ll pay for an extra unit of electricity, though, will be a bit lower.

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Comments Battery cost kilowatt hour joule

  1. Ramiz
    And get a guarantee from any place in the.
  2. milaska
    Such a system , lead-acid battery for.
  3. KRUTOY_0_SimurG
    The hassle of being stranded eDR robots not rely on water or adding through.