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admin | next action todoist | 04.06.2015
The strong reaction of risky assets in response to the ECB unveiling its new OMT programme (Outright Monetary Transactions) may seem odd at first.
The next logical step to expect would then be for Spain and Italy to ask for the bailout which would make them eligible for OMT intervention, but the issue remains that neither Spain nor Italy feel that they need to abide to the same degree of conditionality as e.g. Beyond the issue of conditionality, the following issues are important to emphasize and highlights that the ECB has moved a big step further down the road of outright monitisation of eurozone government liabilities. The implication for the real economy are difficult to gauge, but the implications for inflation are clear. HINDESIGHT BLOG ALERTSEnter your email address below to follow this blog and receive notification of new posts.
After all and despite the ECB outlining potentially unlimited bond purchases the bazooka was not fired, but merely cocked.
A grave tail risk now seems to have been contained and the extent to which risk asset markets were pricing such tail risks, there is now room for re-rating prices.
Still, the popular notion that this does not expand the ECB’s balance sheet is wrong. It is surprising to us that this issue is not getting more attention as the road is now clear for the ECB to take unprecedented market risk in all manners and kinds of debt securities issued in the eurozone.

The ECB has now fully committed itself not only to saving the euro at any cost, but also to provide unlimited to support for government bond markets. Still, there is plenty to suggest that this will indeed be a game changer in so far as goes the fact that the ECB now seems to stand unconditionally behind backing the euro.
However, a more pertinent point is that the ECB is now, by far, the most aggressive central bank in the world in terms of providing stimulus and acting as a counterparty or actual buyer in private and sovereign securities markets.
However, it is noteworthy to consider that Portugal may be the first beneficiary of OMT not only because the country is so far complying nicely with its Troika programme but also because it is a market whose size is perfectly suited for a trial run of the OMT. However, Draghi has the made process considerably easier by now making redemption strictly conditional on a Troika programme. The ECB’s balance sheet will be expanded one for one with OMT purchases, but the composition of the liability side will change so that high powered money (overnight reserves) is exchanged for longer term deposits. Investors should think back to the initial open market operations conducted by the ECB back in 2008 where the ECB had very strict rating requirements for the securities that would be accepted as collateral.
The sequence of events here is logical as ECB intervention requires that countries abide to the official EU conditions and thus what we are seeing is merely one more step towards full fiscal union unanimously backed its central bank. Draghi’s comment that journalists would have to guess the identity of the lone dissenter on the governing board was almost comical.

That era is now over and the ECB is now effectively ready to accept anything (with the exception of Greek sovereign bonds). After Axel Weber left the ECB and despite Weidemann’s ongoing quibbles in the press against the ECB, the anti-inflation crowd and the Bundesbank itself have been steadily pushed into the periphery of eurozone monetary policy making.
Potentially unlimited purchases of government bonds means exactly what is says on the tin, namely the potential for an unlimited expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet. The ECB is consequently now willing to accept government guaranteed debt securities from countries under Troika programmes as well as non-EUR denominated securities. Firstly, it is unclear to us that 7d deposits represents a meaningful difference from overnight reserves in adding to the money supply and secondly, the ECB may very well fail to attract enough bids for deposits once wholesale purchases of Spanish and Italian bonds kick in. Our view is that this is specifically targeted to help Spanish and Italian financial institutions and to avoid the usage of ELAs in said countries.

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