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Cumulative incidence of ESRD (%) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 02468101214161820 Years from diagnosis of persistent proteinuria Humphrey et al.
Microalbuminurie (Diabetes Care 2002, 25, suppl 1) n Screening voor microalbuminurie : –routine bij diagnose van type 2 ( bij type 1 slechts na vijf jaar, bij type 2 weet je niet hoelang al diagnose )CFR. Pathogenesis n Transforming growth factor beta (TGFbeta) –toediening aan muizen zorgt voor mesangiale matrix overproductie vooral thv de nieren –hyperglycemie, proteinurie, mechanische stress en angiotensine II zorgen voor overproduktie van TGFbeta –anti TGF therapie effectief maar veilig ? UKPDS MAIN STUDY Risk Reduction of Various Endpoints UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Group. UKPDS HYPERTENSION SUBSTUDY Effect of Atenolol or Captopril on Blood Pressure UK Prospective Study Group.
CDC Diabetes Cost-effectiveness Group Cost-effectiveness of intensive glycemic control, intensified hypertension control, and serum cholesterol level reduction for type 2 diabetes.JAMA. The CDC model doesn't offer the possibility for regression from Microalbuminuria to normal and from Macroalbiminuria to Microalbuminuria, as the Danube A model does. The second state of the CDC model "Clinical Nephropaty" is not taken into account in the Danube A model. It also distinguishes the states of non-specific mortality and ESRD- specific mortality, whereas the Danube A model combines those two states. The Palmer model doesn't allow for regression from "Macroalbuminuria" to "Microalbuminuria" and from "Microalbuminuria" to "No Nephropathy". This model regards ESRD with transplantation and dialysis whereas the Danube A model takes only dialysis into acccount. Also compared to the Danube A model the state "doubling of serum creatinine" is taken into account.

Direct transitions from the normal state, which means "no Nephropathy" to any other state are possible. The model by Palmer includes serveral states, which are not supported by the Danube A model. The Zhou model regards transplantation and dialysis whereas the Danube A model takes only dialysis into acccount.
Differences between the IMIB model and the Danube A model can be explained by the possibility of remission in the Danube model. Other than that can be said, that the IMIB model uses the life table of the USA, whereas the Danube A model uses the life table of Germany.
Comparison of the development of the amount of dialysis patients, between the Danube A model and the Retrolective Study Self- Monitoring of Blood Glucose and Outcome in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes (ROSSO 4 [1]).
In this study the further development of diabetes was monitored retrospectively from diagnosis of type 2 diabetes.
Conclusion: As the table shows, the model forecast confirms the progression of the disease at comparable incidences. The model allows the user to enter the desired discounting rate for the costs per year and a discounting rate for the outcome per year. The blood pressure is only regarded in state p7( Macroalbuminuria -> Microalbuminuria) of the Danube Model. The Tornado diagrams below show, which parameters have an extraordinary impact on the results on the development of Diabetes modelled with Danube A .
The structure of the Danube model from 2006 is identical with the structure of the Danube model 2008.

The time horizon in the model 2006 is 40 years whereas the model 2008 has a time horizon of 60 years. The three main assumptions, such as the assumption that "Risks in Type 1 Diabetes and Type 2 Diabetes are similar", or the assumption that "Progression from micro- to macroalbuminuria does not depent on the duration of microalbuminuria", are the same. Both models have the same amount of transition probabilities (p1-p13), which are calculated the same way.
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Tight blood pressure control and risk of macrovascular and microvascular complications in type 2 diabetes: UKPDS 38. A computer simulation model of diabetes progression, quality of life, and cost.Diabetes Care.
As at diagnosis of the disease only a minority of end-stage renal disease can be related to diabetes, one would expect lower incidence rates as it was observed in the patient files.
They both regard the five same states of 'no nephropathy', 'Microalbuminuria', 'Macroalbuminuria', 'ESRD' and 'Death'. The absolute deviation between observed and modelled data is never more than an absolute 0.2%. In both models a regression from 'Microalbuminuria' to 'no nephropathy' and from 'Macroalbuminuria' to 'Microalbuminuria' is possible.

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