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Managing risks on projects is a process that includes risk assessment and a mitigation strategy for those risks.
A more disciplined process involves using checklists of potential risks and evaluating the likelihood that those events might happen on the project. Identifying the sources of risk by category is another method for exploring potential risk on a project.
In Johna€™s move, John makes a list of things that might go wrong with his project and uses his work breakdown structure as a guide.
After the potential risks have been identified, the project team then evaluates the risk based on the probability that the risk event will occur and the potential loss associated with the event.
The Construction Industry Institute conducted a study of large construction project risk evaluation and categorized risk according to the potential impact of project costs. There is a positive correlationTwo variables that respond in the same way to change in their environment.a€”both increase or decrease togethera€”between project risk and project complexity.
For example, a project team analyzed the risk of some important equipment not arriving to the project on time.
Some project managers are more proactiveMaking decisions and taking action to anticipate an expected difficulty. On projects with a low complexity profile, the project manager may informally track items that may be considered risk items. On complex projects, statistical models are sometimes used to evaluate risk because there are too many different possible combinations of risks to calculate them one at a time. After the risk has been identified and evaluated, the project team develops a risk mitigation plan, which is a plan to reduce the impact of an unexpected event.
Each of these mitigation techniques can be an effective tool in reducing individual risks and the risk profile of the project.
One example of risk sharing is a large United States construction firm that won a contract to build a pipeline in Peru.
Risk transferRisk transfer is the risk mitigation process of shifting the possible negative impact of an event to a party outside the project. The project risk plan balances the investment of the mitigation against the benefit for the project.
On one project, the project team left a section of a roof unfinished to allow the installation of equipment after the building was done and the roof installed. In this example, the equipment arriving on time to meet the project schedule was considered a high risk. Contingency funds are funds set aside by the project team to address unforeseen events that cause the project costs to increase.
Some project managers allocate the contingency budget to the items in the budget that have high risk rather than developing one line item in the budget for contingencies. Risk management is a creative process that involves identifying, evaluating, and mitigating the impact of the risk event. Risk management can be very formal, with defined work processes, or informal, with no defined processes or methods.
Risk evaluation prioritizes the identified risks by the likelihood and the potential impact if the event happens. Risk mitigation is the development and deployment of a plan to avoid, transfer, share, and reduce project risk.
A process for risk assessment that is parallel to the WBS is a _________ _______ _______ (three words). Choose a project risk that could be related to the Johna€™s move example that is not described in the text and describe a mitigation plan for that risk. If you are planning a party at your residence, list three project risks and rate each of them for their potential impact and likelihood. To be successful in electronics, it is not enough for an OEM to design and build products with the latest and greatest technology.
Cisco contacted the suppliers, gathering information concerning the impact the quake had on their operations.
Those parts included application specific integrated circuits (ASICs), optical modules, programmable logic devices, discretes, capacitors and other passives, and power amplifiers, as well as laminates among other parts and materials. Cisco soon determined the situation was going from bad to worse because of the severe damage at the Fukushima nuclear power plant. The risk management team ascertained that suppliers within a 100-mile radius of the Fukushima plant would be impacted by the disaster, even if the suppliers’ plants were not directly damaged. In many cases Cisco had second sources for parts and quickly worked with those suppliers to secure needed components.
However, there were some components for which "we did not have a second source or an alternate source so we had to go quickly figure out who outside the impacted area should we work with and how quickly can we get them qualified so we can get a line running,” said Steele. In some cases, Cisco did spot buys from authorized distributors, independent distributors, and parts brokers. As result of preparations, Cisco did not suffer any serious disruption of continuity of supply and production of its products. O’Connor added that Cisco worked with its manufacturing partners so they could to minimize production disruption of Cisco products. Steele noted that the Japanese earthquake underscores the need for OEMs to have programs in place to identify, manage and mitigate risk in the supply chain. There is also greater risk because of the prevalence of outsourcing and globalization in the supply chain.
The prevalence of just-in-time manufacturing has also contributed to risk in the supply chain.
Contributing to Cisco's risk is the fact that the company has a wide range of products ranging from high-end routers to midrange switches. With such a business model, Cisco, its electronic manufacturing services providers, and component and production material suppliers are at risk for natural disasters, recessions, political unrest, wars, acts of terrorism, and other events. Cisco also takes similar action when other non-weather events occur, such as political unrest or financial crises in parts of the world that have the potential of impacting production and supply. Cisco takes a proactive approach to risk management, and "de-risks" nodes, as well as products, in its supply chain. It may not be possible to eliminate all risks in the supply chain, but Cisco wants to minimize risk to its major products as much as possible and have plans in place when a risk becomes a reality. Steele added that he wishes Cisco could have a second source for all its parts and have 100 percent redundancy to reduce risk.
A veteran journalist, Jim was a writer and editor for Electronics Purchasing and Purchasing magazines for 21 years.
Jim was a member of an editorial team that was a finalist for a Jesse Neal Award-- considered the Pulitzer Prize of business journalism-- for print and online stories in 2009 about buying during the recession.
Before covering the electronics industry, Jim worked as a reporter and editor for United Press International for nine years.
A customer asks what percentage of all your single source and sole source suppliers have sound recovery planning and testing.
Insurance underwriters need data showing supply chain resilience in order to give manufacturers the best coverage at the best price. How do you ensure that your direct suppliers, large and small, address their risks before a disaster strikes?


SRS is the only risk service with extensive proactive supplier BCP, recognized by a patent and endorsed by insurers. Your customer emails you to ask if your company’s manufacturing is impacted by the earthquake.
Senior management is concerned that weeks went by before hearing about the fire at a sub-tier supplier’s site. SRS monitors millions of events per day using the most advanced data science and Big Data techniques. SRS informs you immediately about fires, strikes, natural disasters, logistics disruptions, etc.
Only Supply Risk Solutions does all of this for you, resulting in the world’s most effective supply chain risk management program.
For me Alternative Finance is the most exciting sector in Fintech by far in terms of near term impact as competition for the “Old FS” and as choice for both borrowers and lenders. This is also a special episode in being rather longer than normal – there is so much to be discussed as the sector is very active right now and the future is busy taking place with lots of seismic shifts happening beneath our feet.
In the AltFi awards Lendinvest was ranked as the best UK fintech-real estate platform (which has done over ?166m of deals to date).
For the borrower this means there is no uncertainty as to whether a loan will be funded (whereas on a typical platform they have to wait to see if it gets funded). In the US the market has been heavily regulated (enabling a few platforms to grow very large and their owners very wealthy (sound familiar?)). P2P is still a tiny portion of the market (eg the UK mortgage market is ?1.6trn) and therefore unlikely to be constrained in terms of quality asset acquisition in the near term. In LFP006 I discussed this problem over the lack of quality assessment on price comparison sites in the insurance marketplace. What the use of the term P2P is trying to convey is that the investor ends up with a direct exposure to the underlying loans. However even though you end up with a principal exposure to the specific loan-asset(s) you also have an agency exposure to the platform. Owning assets (secured (0.00001% of 1 Park Lane or unsecured loans (?70 to Mr Bloggs1-100)) is one thing if you have a platform there fulfilling all the agency responsibilities. This is clearly key.  Especially now loan terms are increasing (out to 5yrs) I, having worn a number of FS Risk hats, certainly would not invest any money of that term without assessing my agency risk exposure over that time horizon to the platform. I am not making these points merely to be critical or to throw rocks at other people’s greenhouses. Revisiting the vocabulary point – no single term right now meaningfully covers all of Fintech hence the subsectors. Both approaches are perfectly valid – however they are sufficiently different to explain the fact that no single term fits both. See the license for more details, but that basically means you can share this book as long as you credit the author (but see below), don't make money from it, and do make it available to everyone else under the same terms. However, the publisher has asked for the customary Creative Commons attribution to the original publisher, authors, title, and book URI to be removed. Risk assessmentIdentification of the possibility for loss due to an event and an estimate of its effect.
Some companies and industries developed risk checklists based on experience from past projects. Examples of people risks include the risk of not finding the skills needed to execute the project or the sudden unavailability of key people on the project.
Hillsona€™s approach helps the project team identify known risks but can be restrictive and less creative in identifying unknown risks and risks not easily found inside the work breakdown structure. High-impact risk consisted of risks that could increase the project costs by 5 percent of the conceptual budget or 2 percent of the detailed budget. A project with new and emerging technology will have a high-complexity rating and a correspondingly high risk. Building on the identification of the risks, each risk event is analyzed to determine the likelihood of occurring and the potential cost if it did occur. The team identified three pieces of equipment that were critical to the project and would significantly increase the costs of the project if they were late in arriving. On more complex projects, the project management team may develop a list of items perceived to be higher risk and track them during project reviews. One example of the statistical model used on projects is the Monte Carlo simulationA simulation that uses statistical processes to evaluate risk., which simulates a possible range of outcomes by trying many different combinations of risks based on their likelihood.
The risk mitigation plan captures the risk mitigation approach for each identified risk event and the actions the project management team will take to reduce or eliminate the risk. The company partnered with a construction company in Peru with a reputation for performing on time. The project team often develops an alternative method for accomplishing a project goal when a risk event has been identified that may frustrate the accomplishment of that goal. The equipment was late, and the project would have been delayed if the building was not completed.
This approach allows the project team to track the use of contingency against the risk plan. Contingency planning is the development of alternative plans to respond to the occurrence of a risk event.
You may choose from any part of the Johna€™s move example that has been described in previous chapters. What are three risks that might affect the ceremony or reception, and how would you mitigate the impact of those risks? Because of outsourcing and globalization of the electronics chain, successful companies also have to be adept at identifying, managing, and mitigating risk. OEMs that had strong risk management programs fared better and were least impacted by the supply disruptions that occurred following the devastating quake and tsunami in Japan. Cisco has had a formal risk management organization embedded in its customer value chain supply management operation since 2007.
The quake occurred on a Thursday(West Coast time) and by Friday morning “we had a war room set up, and identified all the people that needed to be involved.
Some had suffered damage to facilities, while others were indirectly impacted by power outages. Twenty years ago, electronics OEMs were more vertically integrated and did more of their own manufacturing. Such occurrences have the potential to shut down production lines for Cisco's products, as well as manufacturing of its suppliers' products. If it is a single source part, a commodity manager should make sure the supplier has an alternative site where the part can be produced. He covered electronics distribution, semiconductors, passive components and connectors for the magazines. For example, what percentage of suppliers addressed the risks that you identified in last year’s risk assessment? The events are assessed 24x7x365 so that you have actionable insights on impact to your suppliers, sub-tiers and logistics. In the world of Fintech froth that has been 2014 Lendinvest and Christian are the real deal. Recently I heard a leading Fintech analyst describe them as the best dark horse bet for London’s first major fintech IPO. He also mentioned that there is no commonly agreed definitions in the sector (I am sure I saw the FSA include P2P within crowdfunding recently (?!)). Lending Club alone is forecast to do perhaps $10bn of business next year – more than the entire UK P2P industry put together.
Price comparisons websites are just that – they compare the prices of your insurance.
They are (somewhat) like a fund (albeit neither structured nor regulated as such).  In this case your agency exposure is much greater as they are making your principal investment decisions for you. You may also download a PDF copy of this book (55 MB) or just this chapter (2 MB), suitable for printing or most e-readers, or a .zip file containing this book's HTML files (for use in a web browser offline).
David HillsonDavid Hillson, a€?Using a Risk Breakdown Structure in Project Management,a€? Journal of Facilities Management 2, no. Some risk events are more likely to happen than others, and the cost of a risk event can vary greatly.


The project management team will assign the appropriate resources to the technology managers to assure the accomplishment of project goals.
One of the vendors, who was selected to deliver an important piece of equipment, had a history of being late on other projects.
David Parker and Alison MobeyDavid Parker and Alison Mobey, a€?Action Research to Explore Perceptions of Risk in Project Management,a€? International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management 53, no.
On projects with greater complexity, the process for evaluating risk is more formal with a risk assessment meeting or series of meetings during the life of the project to assess risks at different phases of the project. The output from a Monte Carlo simulation provides the project team with the probability of an event occurring within a range and for combinations of events. A common risk avoidance technique is to use proven and existing technologies rather than adopt new techniques, even though the new techniques may show promise of better performance or lower costs. Many organizations that work on international projects will reduce political, legal, labor, and others risk types associated with international projects by developing a joint venture with a company located in that country. On international projects, companies will often purchase the guarantee of a currency rate to reduce the risk associated with fluctuations in the currency exchange rate. The project team left a section of the roof unfinished to allow the equipment to be placed in the building with the use of a crane. The team developed a contingency plan to install the roof in two phases to allow the installation of the equipment, if it was late. Although the amount of contingency allocated in the project budget is a function of the risks identified in the risk analysis process, contingency is typically managed as one line item in the project budget. This approach also allocates the responsibility to manage the risk budget to the managers responsible for those line items. A risk breakdown structure (RBS) can follow the work breakdown structure (WBS) to identify risk by activity. For example, if you are planning an outdoor wedding, describe the backup plan in case of rain. Those companies had alternative plans and suppliers which helped guarantee continuity of supply, and were least affected in terms of supply, operations, and financial performance. The operation, headed by James Steele, program director, value chain risk management, identifies current and future potential risks in the supply chain and develops plans and strategies if potential risks develop into full-fledged crises.
By noon had an accounting of all of our major suppliers within Japan, at least all the tier ones,” said Steele. In addition, many employees could not show up for work because they needed to tend to their families.
The playbooks list strategies on dealing with the particular type of catastrophe in a specific region and suggest measures that can be taken to deal with the crisis.
For some sites, we had alternative qualified sites which were paper qualified and were ready to go,” Steele noted. Steele’s team tries to identify and manage such risks and monitors everything from severe weather to financial calamity anywhere in the world. For instance, his team monitors weather conditions around the world for possible hurricanes or typhoons or other storms that could potentially impact component supply and equipment manufacturing at locations around the world.
Obviously inventory has to be used in the thoughtful and strategic way," said O’Connor.
He also wrote extensively about the strategic purchasing strategies of electronics OEMs and electronics manufacturing services providers.
How do you monitor fires, strikes, financial distress at your suppliers and sub-tier sites? One key difference with a fund is that in some cases there is no transparency – ie you may legally own a bunch of loans (or rather parts-thereof) but you have no knowledge of them, and no auditing that you would get if you invested in a fund. Evaluating the risk for probability of occurrence and the severity or the potential loss to the project is the next step in the risk management process.
These were the critical few potential risk events that the project management team focused on when developing a project risk mitigation or management plan.
The more complex the technology, the more resources the technology manager typically needs to meet project goals, and each of those resources could face unexpected problems. A risk mitigation plan addresses the items that have high ratings on both factorsa€”likelihood and impact. On highly complex projects, an outside expert may be included in the risk assessment process, and the risk assessment plan may take a more prominent place in the project execution plan. For example, the typical output from a Monte Carol simulation may reflect that there is a 10 percent chance that one of the three important pieces of equipment will be late and that the weather will also be unusually bad after the equipment arrives. A project team may choose a vendor with a proven track record over a new vendor that is providing significant price incentives to avoid the risk of working with a new vendor. Partnering with another company to share the risk associated with a portion of the project is advantageous when the other company has expertise and experience the project team does not have.
A project manager may hire an expert to review the technical plans or the cost estimate on a project to increase the confidence in that plan and reduce the project risk.
The risk of a truck drivers strike may be mitigated with a contingency plan that uses a train to transport the needed equipment for the project. The contingency plan was more expensive and contingency funds were placed in the budget to cover the possibility that the equipment would be late.
The availability of contingency funds in the line item budget may also increase the use of contingency funds to solve problems rather than finding alternative, less costly solutions. When the quake in Japan hit, Steele’s eight-person risk management team was prepared.
These checklists can be helpful to the project manager and project team in identifying both specific risks on the checklist and expanding the thinking of the team.
Risk evaluation is about developing an understanding of which potential risks have the greatest possibility of occurring and can have the greatest negative impact on the project. This risk event (the identified equipment arriving late) was rated as high likelihood with a high impact. The project team that requires drug testing for team members is practicing risk avoidance by avoiding damage done by someone under the influence of drugs. If the risk event does occur, then the partnering company absorbs some or all of the negative impact of the event. If the project had not successfully completed on time, both companies would have received less profit, but the project was successful and both companies met profit targets. Assigning highly skilled project personnel to manage the high-risk activities is another risk reduction method.
A construction project in the Caribbean may purchase hurricane insurance that would cover the cost of a hurricane damaging the construction site. If a critical piece of equipment is late, the impact on the schedule can be mitigated by making changes to the schedule to accommodate a late equipment delivery. Most project managers, especially on more complex projects, will manage contingency funds at the project level, with approval of the project manager required before contingency funds can be used.
The past experience of the project team, project experience within the company, and experts in the industry can be valuable sources for identifying potential risk on a project.
A risk breakdown structure organizes the risks that have been identified into categories using a table with increasing levels of detail to the right. The other two pieces of equipment were potentially a high impact on the project but with a low probably of occurring. The lack of formal risk management tools was seen as a barrier to implementing a risk management program. Experts managing a high-risk activity can often predict problems and find solutions that prevent the activities from having a negative impact on the project. The creative process includes brainstorming sessions where the team is asked to create a list of everything that could go wrong. The level of investment in formal risk management was also associated with managerial psychological dimensions. Some companies reduce risk by forbidding key executives or technology experts to ride on the same airplane.
Weather, political unrest, and labor strikes are examples of events that can significantly impact the project and that are outside the control of the project team.



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