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Various institutions are currently making future projections of the world food supply and demand. This paper firstly reviews past efforts to develop food supply and demand models, and compares the characteristics and the results of the existing models. Quantitative analyses for the future situation of the world food supply began along with improvements in international statistics for the food sector.
Since the world food crisis in 1973, research activities in this field have been encouraged in many institutions. Following these attempts, several so-called policy simulation models were developed in the 1980s. In order to assess the mutual impact among various economic sectors, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models began to be used.
Table 1(294) is a list of presently active models which deal with food supply and demand analyses.
The primary factors that generate the differences in theory are the assumptions, such as GDP growth and population, given to the models. Table 2(313), annual growth rates of various projection results for world cereal consumption are compared. The common limitation of these econometric models is that they are designed for medium-term projections. To overcome the limitations of current medium-term models, a simple framework for a long-term simulation model was designed. Population assumptions are derived from the medium variant of the UN population estimate (United Nations 1996). Reflecting the increase in livestock production, feed requirements also expand dramatically.
Secondly, the future situation of food supply and demand will be determined largely by growth in income.
Thirdly, it should be noted that trade among the regions will play a greater role in the future. This paper emphasizes the importance of dynamic structural changes in the long-term food supply and demand analysis. In consideration of the additional food requirement in the future, gains in agricultural productivity must continue to be pursued. We are happy to offer the fantastic Food For Health Vegetarian Emergency Food Supply 275 Servings Up to a 20 Year Shelf Life Weather Proof Bucket. For this reduced price, the Food For Health Vegetarian Emergency Food Supply 275 Servings Up to a 20 Year Shelf Life Weather Proof Bucket is highly recommended and is a regular choice with many people.
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More than 70 million people will be added to the world population every year between 1995 and 2020.
It also demonstrates an attempt to overcome the limitations of existing medium-term models.
In step with the progress of computer technology, econometric models were made capable of reproducing fairly complicated realities. As every method, including simple single-equation models, has merits and demerits, the selection of the methodology should depend totally on the purpose and the target of the study. Although the results of projections are basically the outcome of econometric models, most of them also reflect the opinions of regional or commodity experts. In these models, the basic economic structure is supposed to remain unchanged for the projection period of 5 to 7 years. Most equations have a form of constant elasticity and constant growth rate for the convenience of flexible change of parameters. Income growth is represented by GDP growth, and compiled from a World Bank report (World Bank 1999) and other sources.
As constant growth rates sometimes give unrealistic numbers, some yield levels in 2020 are thought to be too high.
They will more than double in East and Southeast Asia during the next 20 years, and a large amount of cereals and oil meals will be imported from outside the region, according to the projection.


The production of cereals and oil crops in 2020 will require 70 million ha more land than the land currently used. Firstly, yield increase of crops is the least known and most influential factor in the food supply and demand balance in the distant future.
Population growth, which has been the major factor for the increase in demand, will be moderated in the future. Since the model does not show the amount of gross trade, and no policy variable is considered in the model, not much can be said about trade. Many current medium-term models are not capable of reproducing such changes in their projections.
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Oregon Food Bank works with a cooperative, statewide network of partner agencies to distribute emergency food to hungry families. A new simulator, which links together the method of econometric models and the concept of system dynamics, was developed for this reason.
Although the earth provides an enormous amount of food for 6 billion people, nearly 800 million people currently suffer from malnutrition. The amount of food required also varies in relation to economic conditions and other factors. In the projection, various types of mathematical functions were carefully selected for each country and commodity in order to reproduce patterns of past trends.
Department of Agriculture (USDA) made several attempts to build multi-equation models in which supply-demand gaps were cleared automatically by a change in prices (USDA 1985).
Research results based on these models were used as reliable guides for reforming trade and domestic support policies during this period.
Unlike conventional econometric models, this type of model is capable of handling various dimensions of data. Therefore, the final figures in the publication are not associated directly with the models.
The structure of the models, such as the selection of explanatory variables and the size of parameters, is also a source of variation. Although the figures are alike, accumulated growth for 20 years would produce significant differences.
There is a tendency that more recent projections have lower growth rates, reflecting the downward revisions of population and GDP assumptions. As the problems that require long perspective have emerged, the need for analyses over a longer period of time increases. The GDP growth rates are kept constant during the projection period, as no additional information was available. However, a large-scale harvested area is essential for future food production in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the increase in yield per hectare is expected to be smaller than in the other regions. The GDP assumption used for the baseline scenario was rather optimistic, partly because it becomes gradually higher on a per capita basis due to the gradual decline in population growth, and partly because it is originally higher compared with recent economic performances. Thus, it is suggested that a higher increase in yields can reduce the world food price, but a declining world food price does not necessarily mean an increase in consumption.
Thirty years ago, not many crop scientists could foresee that the current level of yields would be realized. A new approach, which links the methods of econometric models and the concept of system dynamics, could be a powerful tool in this regard.
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There is little hope to fulfill the commitment made by the world food summit in 1996 that the number of undernourished population should be halved by 2015 (FAO 1999b).
In order to understand the complexity of world food problems, various large-scale economic models have been developed in many institutes, and the results of future projections have been published. This single-equation method, however, did not adjust for gaps in supply and demand for the world as a whole. However, the form of the equations was rather simple and the structure of the models was comparatively static, whereby a single point of the future was compared with the starting point.
The model developed by the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is one of these policy simulation models.
The usefulness of this model is realized in the case of environmental assessments, where not enough statistical data are available. In addition, each model uses a statistical dataset with a different classification and definitions. Actual parameters applied are known to vary substantially, regardless of the fact that most of the parameters are estimated on the basis of past data and on similar econometric methods.


All though the projections have similar trends in world totals, the numbers for individual countries sometimes show a completely opposite trend. For example, constraints of natural resources, global climate changes and determination of research priorities are important issues that require long-term projections.
Parameters and equations are totally synthetically given for each calculation period of each region or commodity, so that long-term structural changes can easily be reflected.
Income and price elasticities are formulated, with those of individual countries taken from the FAO estimates (FAO 1993) and other literatures. Consumption of livestock products will continue to increase rapidly, especially in developing regions.
Although feed efficiency was kept nearly constant in the baseline scenario, it will be very influential if the balance between improvements in feeding technology and the prevalence of intensive commercial production changes in the future. Harvested area will be increased, partly by the exploitation of new arable land, and partly by raising crop intensity. However, it is noted that yield increase and income are closely related in many developing regions. Shifts in dietary patterns, which include the diversification of traditional diets in developing regions, and health and environmental concerns in developed countries, will be a major component of projected demand from now on. As the basic factors such as land availability or population increase vary widely over the regions, regional gaps would surely enlarge without global trade. Although the results of the simulation show the continuation of past trends, the magnitude of emerging key issues in the coming century, such as feed requirements, land expansion, global trade and so on, are clearly indicated by the results. Although the results of the simulation show the continuation of the past trend like the other projections, the simulation results clearly indicate the magnitude of key issues in the coming century, such as feed requirements, land expansion, global trade and so on.
However, as the world food problems become more complicated and as people's concerns move towards long-term sustainability issues, new analytical tools suitable for these problems with a longer perspective must be developed. Finally, at the end of the paper, a suggestion is made with regard to the future direction of long-term analyses of the world food supply and demand. Since the commodity classification is not as detailed as in the partial equilibrium models, it is not a very powerful tool for future projections. Difference in equation forms is an influential factor concerning the long-term dynamic projections.
As models are based on past experience, no model is competent to tell the future if any unforeseen events such as the Asian financial crisis or the collapse of the USSR should occur. Lowering yield assumption might be an exaggerated scenario, as the baseline assumptions of yield increase were adjusted below the past trend for many regions. But at the same time, environmental constraints may limit even the current level of harvest. The future is an unprecedented world where the limitations of the earth must be recognized. Along with the enhanced flavors, Food for Health has also increased the nutritional value as well. A serious concern about the scarcity of land and water resources have emerged in tandem with various kinds of environmental problems. At the same time, an ambitious attempt was made by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries in Japan (MAFF). However, it is true that the analysis within a single food sector would not be very meaningful, particularly in developed countries where the agricultural sector occupies only a small part of the whole economy.
The growth rate of world cereal yield per hectare, for example, has declined to nearly half of previous decades in Asia, while per capita consumption of livestock products has increased threefold in the past 20 years in Asia.
However, it is perhaps worth doing this simulation considering the people's concern for global environmental degradation, which may force a further decline in yield growth. In addition, technical innovation is strongly correlated to the level of investment, and thus the level of relative prices.
The balance between the global division of labor and effective utilization of local resources will become a more and more difficult task for policy makers. Each entrée is high in protein and offers no hydrogenated oils, trans fats, or added MSG. Perhaps the production structure in many developing countries in the year 2020 will be quite different from the one prevailing now. Although agricultural investment has not been very active, due to the relatively low prices of agricultural products, a higher price of food in the future would surely attract investment to this area. The dynamic simulator developed in this paper also has the potential to deal with such issues. The passage of time was considered, and the model was equipped with elaborate non-linear functions (MAFF 1974). By adding new functions, the simulator can reproduce the long-term dynamics in world food sector more realistically, and show us the way to a sustainable future.
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