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An analysis by James Hansen and colleagues suggests that recent episodes of extremely warm summers, including the intense heat wave afflicting the U.S. A statistical analysis (Perception of climate change) by NASA scientists has found that Earth's land areas have become much more likely to experience an extreme summer heat wave than they were in the middle of the 20th century. The statistics show that the recent bouts of extremely warm summers, including the intense heat wave afflicting the U.S. James Hansen and colleagues use the bell curve to show the growing frequency of extreme summer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, compared to the 1951 to 1980 base period. In 1988, Hansen first asserted that global warming would reach a point in the coming decades when the connection to extreme events would become more apparent. To distinguish the trend from natural variability, Hansen and colleagues turned to statistics. NASA climatologists have long collected data on global temperature anomalies, which describe how much warming or cooling regions of the world have experienced when compared with the 1951 to 1980 base period.
Hansen and colleagues found that a bell curve was a good fit to summertime temperature anomalies for the base period of relatively stable climate from 1951 to 1980.
Plotting bell curves for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, the team noticed the entire curve shifted to the right, meaning that more hot events are the new normal. Other regions around the world also have felt the heat of global warming, according to the study.


The research was published August 6, 2012, in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Midwest this year, very likely are the consequence of global warming, according to lead author James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. The mean temperature for the base period is centered at the top of the green curve, while hotter than normal temperatures (red) are plotted to theright and colder than normal (blue) to the left. While some warming should coincide with a noticeable boost in extreme events, the natural variability in climate and weather can be so large as to disguise the trend. In this study, the GISS team including Makiko Sato and Reto Ruedy did not focus on the causes of temperature change. In this study, the researchers employ a bell curve to illustrate how those anomalies are changing. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. The partners include: National Centers for Environmental Information (formerly NCDC), Regional Climate Centers, and State Climate Offices. Watch for the 2010 heat waves in Texas, Oklahoma and Mexico, or the 2011 heat waves the Middle East, Western Asia and Eastern Europe. But since 2006, about 10 percent of land area across the Northern Hemisphere has experienced these temperatures each summer.


By 1981, the curve begins to shift noticeably to the right, showing how hotter summers are the new normal. Instead the researchers analyzed surface temperature data to establish the growing frequency of extreme heat events in the past 30 years, a period in which the temperature data show an overall warming trend. The curve falls off equally to both sides, showing that fewer students receive B and D grades and even fewer receive A and F grades.
This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth’s surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. Extreme El Nino events develop differently from standard El Ninos, which first appear in the western Pacific. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small.
Extreme El Nino’s occur when sea surface temperatures exceeding 28°C develop in the normally cold and dry eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.



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